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EURUSD

Fundamental Market Analysis for May 28, 2025 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair retreated below 1.1400 for the second consecutive day, helped by a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) following the release of a positive consumer confidence report. Risk appetite increased as market participants digested the news that US President Donald Trump said that trade talks between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) have gained momentum following his threats to impose 50 percent tariffs last Friday. Although he backtracked on his words, allowing some room for negotiations, it remains to be seen if the two sides will reach an agreement before July 9. The convincing US consumer confidence data for May released by the Conference Board (CB) put pressure on EUR/USD. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US currency against the other six currencies, rose more than 0.62% to 99.54. The ECB's Gediminas Simkus said he sees scope for an “interest rate cut in June”. Robert Holzmann, a member of Austria's central bank and a member of the ECB, told the Financial Times (FT) that he sees no reason to cut rates at the June and July policy meetings. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1265, SL 1.1365, TP 1.1065
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Bullish bounce?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1273 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1164 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.1415 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
EURUSD – Holding the uptrend, eyes on support reactionEURUSD continues to move steadily within a clearly defined rising channel. After touching the channel bottom around 1.1305 (which aligns with the 89 EMA), price is showing a slight rebound and has a chance to form the next upward leg. Technical view: The bullish structure remains intact. As long as price holds this bottom area, there's a high probability of another push toward the resistance zone around 1.1428 – a level that was previously rejected. News factor: Market sentiment is now focused on upcoming U.S. Core PCE inflation data, which could influence expectations of a Fed rate cut and, in turn, impact the strength of the USD. Suggested strategy: Favor buying if price holds above 1.1305 – targeting 1.1428. If this level fails, the short-term uptrend may be challenged.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
4
Bullish bounce off overlap support?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.1263 1st Support: 1.1166 1st Resistance: 1.1423 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
GBP/USD Ready to Explode or Collapse? All Eyes on 1.3600British Pound (CFTC - CME) Commercial traders increased their long positions by +1,839 contracts and short positions by +3,597. Net exposure remains negative, but the significant short increase suggests active hedging and risk management. Non-Commercial traders (speculators) reduced their longs by -1,396 and increased their shorts by +1,827, signaling weakening sentiment toward the GBP. Open Interest rose modestly by +465 → showing renewed engagement, though there’s clear divergence between Commercial and Non-Commercial positioning. Implication: Net pressure remains bearish, but there's evidence of short saturation from Commercials, possibly hinting at a consolidation phase or reversal ahead. USD Index (ICE Futures) Non-Commercials increased both longs (+2,044) and shorts (+1,975), signaling indecision. Commercials slightly increased long exposure (+689), while shorts remained mostly flat (-114). Implication: The dollar shows cautious strengthening, but with no strong directional conviction. A period of ranging price action is likely. 2. Retail Sentiment 67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with only 33% long. Volume favors short positions as well: 7,727 lots vs. 3,866 long. Implication: From a contrarian perspective, the excessive short bias among retail traders supports a short-term bullish scenario, possibly driven by a short squeeze or liquidity run. 3. Historical Seasonality May shows a historically bearish tendency: 10-Year Avg: -2.22% 5-Year Avg: -1.60% 2-Year Avg: -0.65% Implication: Seasonal bias remains negative, but should be interpreted alongside COT and sentiment data to avoid misleading signals. 4. Technical Analysis Price is currently trading inside a weekly resistance zone between 1.3513 and 1.3600, following a strong bounce from a dynamic support. A previous structure break failed to follow through → bull trap was avoided. The weekly RSI is rising from neutral levels, suggesting momentum is shifting upward. Previous demand zones around 1.3176 and 1.3047 held well. Implication: A potential breakout is forming, but it occurs near a key technical level. Without strong volume or fundamentals, the area may trigger a sell reaction. 5. Market Depth There is a heavy cluster of short orders above current price, while long orders appear scattered and less aggressive. This creates a liquidity magnet effect, which may lead to bullish spikes towards 1.3550–1.3600 before any meaningful distribution. Implication: Potential upside extension in the short-term to hunt stops, followed by a bearish reaction. 🎯 Operational Outlook Main Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish short-term, Bearish (Seasonal) mid-term Key levels to watch: Resistance: 1.3550–1.3600 Support zone: Ascending trendline and 1.3340–1.3176 Likely Scenarios: Price may spike toward 1.3550 to clear liquidity before facing rejection. A confirmed weekly close above 1.3610 opens the door to 1.3750. A drop below 1.3340 confirms structural reversal and bearish continuation.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
EUR/USD - Is the uptrend about to end?The EUR/USD currency pair has demonstrated a consistent uptrend on the 4-hour chart for approximately two weeks. This sustained bullish momentum has captured the attention of traders and analysts alike, who are now questioning whether the pair can maintain its upward trajectory or if a retracement is imminent as it approaches significant resistance levels. Rising wedge A closer examination of the price action reveals that EUR/USD has been advancing within a rising wedge formation. This technical pattern is generally considered bearish, as it often precedes a reversal or a breakdown rather than a continued rally. Rising wedges are characterized by converging trendlines, with price making higher highs and higher lows at a diminishing rate, which typically signals waning bullish momentum and a potential for sellers to regain control. Strong resistance Recently, the pair encountered a notable resistance zone around the 1.141 level. Upon reaching this area, EUR/USD faced a rejection, resulting in a pullback from its recent highs. While there is a possibility that the pair could make another attempt to test this resistance, the initial rejection suggests that the upward move may be losing steam. As a result, the likelihood of a retracement has increased, especially given the bearish implications of the rising wedge pattern. Support/target zone If the pair does indeed correct lower, a logical target for a cooldown would be the green support zone near 1.127. This level has previously acted as a strong support area, and it could serve as a foundation for buyers to step in once more, potentially setting the stage for another move higher. Until the resistance at 1.141 is decisively broken, caution is warranted, and a period of consolidation or a pullback towards support appears increasingly probable. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
Short
by Youriverse
22
XAU/USD: Bull or Bear? Let's Find Out! (READ THE CAPTION)By examining the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after our previous analysis, the price first corrected to the $3323 area and is currently trading around $3336. As mentioned in the previous analysis, as long as the price remains above $3313, we can expect further upside for gold. Based on the prior analysis, the next bullish targets are $3342, $3358, $3366, and $3394. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
9
EURUSD Bearish Setup | Head and Shoulders BreakdownEUR/USD has formed a clear Head and Shoulders pattern on the 15-minute chart, indicating a potential short-term trend reversal. Key Technical Points: Left Shoulder, Head, and Right Shoulder are well-defined. Price has broken below the neckline support around 1.1375, confirming bearish intent. Volume confirms the selling pressure on the right shoulder breakdown. Target area aligns with previous price action around 1.1294, a likely support zone. Risk is controlled with a stop above the invalidation level near 1.1376. This setup reflects classical price action structure and could offer a clean downside move if momentum continues. 📊 Pure technical structure — pattern-based idea with disciplined trade planning.
Short
by UAE_USA_GOLD_TRADERS
EURUSD Sellers In Panic! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1346 Bias -Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.1371 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
AudCad..PWL taken!!Good day traders, I’m back with another setup on AudCad and I like that previous week low was taken. We can now look at the power of 3 with higher TF in mind. On the 4H TF price has been bearish but we can see that price left very “smooth” highs(relative equal highs) but ICT teaches us that price will always go back to make the smooth highs, smooth cries(liquidity sweep). Before price took our low it left a FVG that’s we wanna see turn into an inverse. The first target has to be our internal liquidity than the external liquidity that also has relatively equal highs too.
Long
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
1
EUR/USD Holds Above 16-Year ChannelThe U.S. dollar, pressured by debt concerns, has declined toward critical 2025 lows near the 98 level. Meanwhile, the euro has stabilized near 1.1380, now trading above the upper boundary of a 16-year descending channel originating from the 2008 peak and extending through 2024. This breakout positions EUR/USD for a potential long-term bullish move—provided the DXY confirms further downside. A firm monthly close above 1.16 would confirm the breakout, setting sights on highs from 2018 and 2021, between 1.20 and 1.24. On the downside, key pullback levels are 1.1270, 1.1140, and 1.1070. A break below those could extend pressure toward 1.0990 and 1.0890. - Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
Euro Nears $1.14 as Dollar is PressuredEUR/USD climbed to $1.1395, approaching a one-month high as the dollar softened amid mounting U.S. fiscal concerns and uncertainty over Trump’s tax-and-spending bill. Risk sentiment improved after Trump delayed a planned 50% tariff on EU goods, easing fears of a transatlantic trade clash. The euro also gained from ECB President Lagarde’s remarks that it could strengthen as a global currency if EU institutions were reinforced. Resistance is at 1.1425, with additional levels at 1.1460 and 1.1580. Support begins at 1.1260, followed by 1.1100 and 1.1050.
by ChartMage
EURUSD INTRADAY uptrend supported at 1.1300Trend Overview: EUR/USD continues to exhibit a bullish price structure, supported by a rising trendline and higher lows. Recent intraday action reflects a corrective pullback, suggesting a temporary pause within the broader uptrend. Key Technical Levels: Support: 1.1300 (primary), followed by 1.1235 and 1.1180 Resistance: 1.1430 (initial), then 1.1470 and 1.1500 Technical Outlook: A pullback toward 1.1300, which coincides with the previous consolidation zone, may present a bullish continuation setup. A confirmed bounce from this level could open the path toward 1.1430, with 1.1470 and 1.1500 as potential longer-term targets. However, a daily close below 1.1300 would indicate a breakdown of near-term bullish momentum. This scenario would increase the likelihood of a deeper correction toward 1.1235, and possibly 1.1180. Conclusion: The outlook for EUR/USD remains constructively bullish, contingent on the 1.1300 support holding. A bounce from this level would reinforce the uptrend. Conversely, a decisive break below 1.1300 would shift the short-term bias to bearish, suggesting further downside toward the 1.1200 area. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
EURUSD – Bouncing on trendline amid EU optimismEURUSD continues to hold a strong upward momentum within a short-term ascending channel. After retesting the channel bottom around the 1.1360 zone, price is showing signs of rebounding, and a "small double bottom" pattern appears to be forming. If confirmed, EURUSD may rally toward the resistance area at 1.1447. Factors supporting the bullish trend: Trump temporarily postponed the 50% tariff on EU goods until July 9 → Trade tensions ease, supporting the euro. Germany's Q1 GDP grew by 0.4% – above expectations → Boosts confidence in Eurozone recovery. The ECB aims to elevate the euro’s global role (digital euro, cross-border payment improvements). Potential scenario: If the 1.1360 zone holds (channel bottom + EMA support), there is a high chance that price will retest and break above the 1.1447 resistance.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
EURUSD H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 1.1397 (Bearish OB) Our take profit will be at 1.1342, a pullback support. The stop loss will be placed at 1.1457, above the 161.8% Fibo extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
Deciphering EURUSD —Highest Level Since 2018 (1.40)This was a hard chart, I couldn't quite put my finger on it. I had to check multiple timeframes and several indicators, it was all mixed, plus, I had the geopolitical landscape in mind which made it even harder. All is clear after looking at the monthly timeframe. The weekly and daily MACD were also of help. MA200 revealed the trend. The RSI as well. Here is the conclusion: The Euro is going to rally against the dollar. Next long-term target is 1.40 as shown on the chart. There will be a strong rise on this pair. Current monthly candle is quite revealing, this month will close ultra-strong, super bullish signal. Four months closing green. Rising volume. I don't know how you trade this stuff but the trend is up. Betting with the trend can increase positive results. EURUSD is going up. Up, up, up, up, up, up, up. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
1
USD/JPY Breakdown: Is 140 the Next Target? Smart Money Says Yes!USD/JPY is currently in a highly interesting technical and macro phase, characterized by divergences between price action and institutional positioning, negative seasonal signals, and retail sentiment that goes against what would typically be expected in a reversal scenario. Let’s break it down: 1. Institutional Positioning (COT Report) The COT data reveals a mixed picture with bearish implications for USD/JPY: On the USD side, non-commercial traders continue to increase their net long exposure (+2,044 new long contracts this week). However, this rise is almost equally offset by +1,975 new shorts, indicating indecision and hedging activity. For the Japanese Yen, non-commercials (speculators) are significantly rebuilding long JPY positions, while commercials have started covering their short exposure. 📌 Implication: The net flow favors the Yen, meaning bearish pressure on USD/JPY. The increase in JPY long positions reflects expectations of a stronger Yen in the short to medium term. 2. Historical Seasonality Seasonal data reinforces the bearish bias: In May and June, USD/JPY has historically posted negative returns. The 5-year average shows -0.57 in May and -0.76 in June, with both the 2Y and 10Y averages confirming a similar downward seasonal pattern. 📌 Implication: The current seasonal window does not favor a USD rebound vs. the Yen. Historically, the likelihood of downside increases into early summer. 3. Retail Sentiment Retail traders are heavily long, with 64% positioned long on USD/JPY versus 36% short. 📌 Implication: From a contrarian perspective, this is a bearish signal. Markets tend to move against retail positioning, adding further downside risk. 4. Price Action & Technical Structure (Daily Chart) On the weekly chart: Price broke the key 144.00 support decisively, closing the week at 142.81. Structure shows lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend. RSI is falling but still above oversold levels, leaving room for further downside. First demand zone: 141.50–142.20. A confirmed break could open the way to 140.00–139.80. Key resistance on any pullback: 145.00–146.00. 📌 Implication: The confirmed break of support activated a bearish continuation setup, unless short-term bounces offer new sell opportunities near resistance. 5. Market Depth Market depth shows a strong cluster of long orders above current levels, while short volumes appear fragmented. This suggests any short-term rally could face aggressive selling between 144.50–145.50. 🎯 Conclusion & Operational Outlook The overall context points to a high probability of further downside in USD/JPY over the short to medium term: Smart money is rotating toward the Yen. Seasonal patterns historically support a drop in May–June. Contrarian retail sentiment adds additional bearish weight. The weekly chart confirms a break of structure, opening space below 141.50.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
GBPAUD…being the best is a mindset!!Good day traders, I am back again with another great setup and again another opportunity to learn something new. On the daily TF on GBpAUD we still in a bearish structure and if we use the 2022 model, we had a structure shift lower and now that price is retesting the OTE entry levels we can now expect price to shoot lower, before you asked about the recent FVG on 4H TF. That newly formed BISI is that candle that created the BPR and from what I’ve learned is that price normally shoots past BPR’s. My poll of liquidity is resting below(weekly), that Ray line makes weekly represents previous week’s low which we want to see the market get to. Just on top of that ray line we have a FVG that price left open, we also wanna see price fill that FVG fully.
Short
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
3