EURUSD
EURUSD road map (4h)The expected targets are marked on the chart and I think in the coming days, the trend will be bullish. After reaching the desired targets, it can drop to 1.04.
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EURUSD Will Fall! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.043.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.041 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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+200 pips Best Level to Short GBPCHF from Resistance🔸Hello traders, let's review the H6 chart for GBPCHF today. Trading
near premium prices of the multiweek range, closing in on heavy S/R
Currently risk/reward is shifting in bears favor, so it's recommended
to look for sell side setups in GBPCHF.
🔸Heavy overhead mirror S/R zone at 1440/1460 expecting reversal
from overhead resistance. current bid is 1380so final push required
before we can get a decent entry on sell side.
🔸Recommended strategy for GBPCHF traders: short any rips/rallies near S/R 1440/1460 price is currently trading near premium levels and is almost maxed out already, limited upside. TP1 bears 1260 TP2 bears 1230 pips final exit 1230 +200 pips. This is a swing trade setup so naturally will take more time to complete / hit targets. good luck traders!
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EURUSD 20 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday - US Unemployment ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 20 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Some USA economic news today:
US : Unemployment Claims & Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary:
Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation.
Key Risks:
A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply)
🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%)
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With the recent moves, Minor Supply is holding and demand is failing to facilitate the INT-INT Bullish structure Pullback which reached the structure EQ (50%).
3️⃣
🔹After the Bullish ii-BOS, price pulled in a corrective PA to the structure EQ (50%) and currently within the Daily Demand.
🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount
🔹Swing Pullback Phase
2️⃣
🔹The 15m Bullish Swing pullback phase is still intact with continues Bearish INT structures.
🔹Price had reached Swing extreme demand in Swing Discount.
🔹With the recent Bearish iBOS, price had formed Liq. above the 15m Demand which was sept with the break of the Weak INT Low, mitigating the 15m Demand and forming a Bullish CHoCH to initiate the Bearish INT Structure Pullback.
🔹Technically Shorts is the straight forward play (Played very well yesterday as per expectations and executions), but keep in mind that the Bearish INT structures task is to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback and we are currently in the Swing Discount Zone and if the Swing is going to continue Bullish, there is a high probability that the INT Structure is going to shift Bullish.
3️⃣
🔹It’s a crossroads! Expectations is for price to turn Bullish and create a Bullish INT structure to confirm the Swing Pullback is over and the start of the Swing Bullish continuation Phase (Bullish iBOS for confirmation).
🔹Will be looking for longs after Bullish iBOS. As for Shorts, not in my interest currently based on where we are within the 115m Swing (Discount)/15m & 4H Demand even with the INT structure is Bearish.
EURUSD H4 | Bearish DropBased on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.0451, a pullback resistance.
A rejection at this level could drive prices lower toward our take profit at 1.0372, an overlap that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
The stop loss is set at 1.05210, positioned above the previous swing high, providing sufficient room for fluctuations while ensuring the bearish setup remains valid.
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XAUUSD UPDATED VIDEO ANALYSIS XAU/USD Analysis for 21 February 2025
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the factors influencing Gold (XAU/USD) for tomorrow, based on technical and fundamental insights from recent market data and forecasts:
1. Technical Analysis & Key Levels
Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance at 2,940–2,943 USD (record high observed on 19 February)
A breakout above this zone could target 2,970 USD (next psychological barrier) or even 3,030 USD (Triangle pattern completion)
Support Levels:
Critical support at 2,887–2,906 USD. A drop below this range might trigger a deeper correction toward 2,850 USD
Indicators:
RSI (54.58): Neutral but leaning bullish.
MACD & Williams %R: Buy signals
Stochastic Oscillator: Overbought, suggesting short-term correction risks, though the broader uptrend remains intact
2. Fundamental Drivers
Fed Minutes Impact:
The release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes (scheduled for 19–20 February) is critical. A hawkish tone (e.g., delays in rate cuts) could strengthen the USD, pressuring Gold. Conversely, dovish hints may fuel bullish momentum
Geopolitical Tensions:
Ongoing US-Russia negotiations over Ukraine and Trump’s renewed tariff threats (e.g., 25%+ tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors) may sustain safe-haven demand for Gold
Dollar Dynamics:
The inverse correlation between XAU/USD and the USD remains pivotal. A weaker dollar (due to risk-off sentiment or Fed easing expectations) could propel Gold higher
3. Price Action Scenarios
Bullish Case:
A sustained break above 2,943 USD confirms the Triangle pattern breakout, targeting 3,030 USD
Continued safe-haven demand (geopolitical risks, tariffs) and dovish Fed signals may drive prices higher
Bearish Risks:
Failure to hold 2,900 USD support could trigger a correction toward 2,850 USD
Hawkish Fed rhetoric or USD strength (e.g., strong economic data) may cap gains
4. Strategic Takeaways
Entry Points:
Long positions: Consider buying on dips near 2,900–2,877 USD with a stop loss below 2,850 USD
Short-term traders: Target 2,970 USD if resistance at 2,943 USD breaks
Risk Management:
Monitor Fed Minutes and USD volatility. Adjust stop-loss levels dynamically based on news flow
Conclusion
Gold remains in a bullish trend, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and inflation hedging. However, tomorrow’s Fed Minutes will be pivotal in determining short-term momentum. A breakout above 2,943 USD opens the door to new highs, while a breakdown below 2,900 USD signals profit-taking or a deeper correction. Traders should align positions with technical levels and news-driven volatility.
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EUR/USD Wedge Breakout (17.2.25)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0413
2nd Support – 1.0375
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GBP/NZD Analysis: Market Uncertainty Amid Key Technical LevelsThe analysis of GBP/NZD shows recent volatility, with a close at 2.20571 on February 19, 2025, slightly down from the previous day, indicating a phase of market indecision. The previous trend saw moderate progression from February 16 to 18, supported by an increase in UK GDP, which temporarily strengthened the Pound. However, the absence of new economic data left the pair exposed to market sentiment, contributing to the decline on February 19. From a technical perspective, the chart highlights a strong resistance area between 2.21770 and 2.22180, a level that has rejected the price multiple times, suggesting that without a decisive breakout above this zone, the bullish trend may weaken. Conversely, a significant support area is located around 2.17616, a level that has already provided a positive reaction, pushing the price back up. The current price action shows a consolidation phase between these two key levels, with a recent structure of higher lows that could indicate an accumulation attempt before a potential bullish breakout. If the price manages to break above the upper resistance decisively, the next target would be around the recent highs in the 2.24000 area. On the other hand, a break below the 2.17616 support could trigger a decline towards the next key level at 2.15000, where an interesting liquidity zone is present. The combination of the recent positive GDP data and a more cautious market sentiment leaves the pair in a state of uncertainty, with a key reaction expected in the coming days depending on the holding or breaking of the main technical levels.
EURUSD Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.04300 zone, EURUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.04300 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSDEURUSD price has a chance to test the resistance zone 1.05053-1.05257. If the price cannot break through the 1.05257 level, it is expected that in the short term, there is a chance that the price will go down. Consider selling the red zone.
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XAU/USD : Time for BUY? Let's see! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the 1-hour gold chart, we can see that, as expected, gold broke above the $2,902.5 resistance yesterday and continued its bullish movement, successfully hitting the next targets at $2,914 and $2,919!
I hope you made the most of this analysis! 🚀
The next potential move depends on whether gold stabilizes above $2,914. If it does, we could see further growth toward $2,922 and $2,928 as the next upside targets.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
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Trade Idea for U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Feb 19, 2025📌 Current Market Context
DXY is trading at 107.023 , slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (106.344).
This level is a key golden ratio support, where strong reversals often happen.
The uptrend from Sept 2024 suggests that bulls are still in control unless this retracement turns into a full reversal.
📈 Bullish Trade Idea (Buy Setup)
✅ Entry: Look for bullish price action (rejection wicks, engulfing candles, or a strong bounce) near 106.344 - 106.500 .
🎯 Targets:
Target 1 : 108.035 (78.6% Fib)
Target 2 : 110.189 (previous high)
📍 Stop-Loss: Below 105.800 (just under 61.8% retracement to avoid stop hunts).
📊 Risk/Reward: ~1:2 or better.
📉 Bearish Trade Idea (Sell Setup)
❌ Trigger: If DXY closes below 106.344 on a daily candle , it could signal further downside.
📉 Entry: Sell below 106.200 after confirmation.
🎯 Targets:
Target 1 : 105.156 (50% Fib)
Target 2 : 103.968 (38.2% Fib)
📍 Stop-Loss: Above 107.000 (to avoid fakeouts).
📊 Risk/Reward: 1:2 minimum.
🛠️ Risk Management Notes
Watch for fundamental news (FOMC, inflation data, rate decisions) that could cause volatility.
Use partial take profits to secure gains along the way.
If entering a buy trade, consider trailing stops once price reaches 108.035.
EUR/USD Rejects 1.0469 – Drop to 1.0399 or Reversal Ahead?EUR/USD Technical Analysis – February 19, 2025
The price is rejecting from the pivot line at 1.0469, confirming bearish momentum after failing to sustain above the key level.
Technical Outlook
Bearish Scenario: As long as the price trades below 1.0469, the downtrend remains valid, targeting 1.0399. A break below this level could extend losses toward 1.0367 and 1.0288.
Bullish Scenario: To reverse the bearish momentum, EUR/USD must break back above 1.0469, which could trigger an upward move toward 1.0520 and 1.0605.
Key Levels to Watch
🔹 Pivot Point: 1.0436
🔹 Resistance Levels: 1.0520, 1.0605
🔹 Support Levels: 1.0390, 1.0367, 1.0288
📉 Directional Bias: The price is expected to drop toward 1.0399 while trading below 1.0469. A break below 1.0399 confirms further downside movement.
💬 Will EUR/USD hold below 1.0469 for further downside, or reclaim the level for a reversal? Drop your thoughts! 👇🔥
xauusd video analysis for the weekXAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) Analysis: February 17 – Febrauary 25, 2025
This analysis provides an in-depth evaluation of gold’s potential trajectory over the specified period, integrating fundamental drivers, technical indicators, and expert forecasts. Key factors influencing gold include geopolitical risks, monetary policy shifts, inflation trends, and technical patterns.
1. Fundamental Drivers
A. Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty
Trade Tensions: The U.S. administration’s recent tariffs (e.g., 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports, 10% on Chinese goods) have amplified global trade risks, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Middle East and China Risks: Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a slowdown in China’s economy (evidenced by a decline in the Caixin PMI) are further driving investors toward gold.
B. Monetary Policy and Inflation
Fed Rate Cuts: Expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 and dovish stances from the ECB and BoE are weakening fiat currencies, boosting gold prices.
Inflation Hedge: Persistent inflation, driven by tariffs and supply-chain disruptions, enhances gold’s appeal. Analysts caution that U.S. inflation could exceed targets, forcing the Fed to reverse rate cuts, which may temporarily support the USD but ultimately favor gold.
C. Central Bank Demand
Central banks, notably China’s PBOC, are accumulating gold reserves to diversify away from the USD, creating structural demand.
2. Technical Analysis
A. Short-Term Signals (February–March)
Momentum Indicators: The RSI (26.05) and Stochastic Oscillator (14.5) signal oversold conditions, suggesting a potential rebound.
Key Levels:
Support: $2,830 (February 10 analysis) and $2,720 (ascending channel lower boundary).
Resistance: $2,887 (immediate target) and $2,900 (psychological barrier).
2. Key Technical Levels
Support Levels:
Immediate Support: $2,880 – This level aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the recent rally.
Critical Support: $2,850 – Represents the lower boundary of the ascending channel formed since late 2024.
Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $2,920 – A breach could trigger bullish momentum toward higher targets.
Key Resistance: $2,959 – The upper boundary of the channel and a major psychological level.
3. Momentum Indicators
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 62, indicating bullish momentum but approaching overbought territory.
Moving Averages (MA):
50-Day MA: Positioned at $2,910, offering dynamic support.
200-Day MA: Located at $2,780, signaling long-term strength.
Stochastic Oscillator: Signals potential upside as it exits oversold conditions on the 4-hour chart.
4. Chart Patterns and Trends
Ascending Channel: Gold continues to trade within an ascending channel, maintaining a bullish structure.
Bullish Flag Formation: On the daily chart, a bullish flag suggests a potential breakout if prices sustain above $2,920.
Candlestick Signals: Last Friday’s bullish engulfing pattern highlights strong buying interest.
5. Scenarios for the Week
Bullish Scenario:
A breakout above $2,920 could target $2,965 and $3,000.
Momentum indicators support further upside if geopolitical tensions persist.
Bearish Scenario:
A failure to hold $2,880 may lead to a decline toward $2,850.
Profit-taking or USD strength could pressure gold, particularly if U.S. economic data surprises positively.
Bullish Targets/ Resistance
2890
2906
2928
2934
2959
2972
2987
3023
Bearish/Support
2872
2857
2841
2807
2781
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 19, 2025 EURUSDU.S. President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he would likely impose tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals of about 25%, with an announcement to follow as early as 2 April.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a peace deal could not yet be concluded. He postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia, scheduled for Wednesday, until 10 March to avoid giving ‘legitimacy’ to the US-Russia talks. This uncertainty could lift the US dollar and serve as a tailwind for the pair.
Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes of the January FOMC meeting, which are due to be released later on Wednesday. This report could provide some clues as to how policymakers assess the risk of a global trade war.
On the other side of the pond, the ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index came in at 24.2 in February versus 18.0 previously, missing expectations. Rising bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates three more times this year could put pressure on the Euro (EUR).
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0450, SL 1.0500, TP 1.0350
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Gains PaceMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Gains Pace
EUR/USD started a decent upward move above the 1.0460 resistance.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today
- The Euro found support and started a recovery wave above the 1.0400 resistance zone.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0460 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.0290 zone. The Euro climbed above the 1.0400 resistance zone against the US Dollar.
The pair even settled above the 1.0450 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.0515 resistance. A high is formed near 1.0514 and the pair is now consolidating gains. There was a minor decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0292 swing low to the 1.0514 high.
Immediate support is near the 1.0445 level. The next major support is at 1.0400 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0292 swing low to the 1.0514 high.
If there is a downside break below 1.0400, the pair could drop toward the 1.0375 support. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0290, below which the pair could start a major decline.
On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 1.0460. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0460. The next major resistance is near the 1.0515 level. An upside break above 1.0515 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0550.
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EURUSDHello, I hope you are well🌹
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