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EURUSD

GBP/JPY Breaks Above 196.00! Continuation or Distribution?Detailed Techno-Macro Analysis – GBP/JPY GBP/JPY has just completed a significant weekly structure breakout, pushing through a key supply zone between 195.00 and 196.30 — an area that historically acted as strong resistance. The breakout occurred via a high-volatility daily candle that closed above the zone, indicating strong bullish pressure. 🔍 Structure & Price Action Price action shows higher lows and higher highs: a clearly defined bullish structure. The breakout originated from an accumulation base, following a false bearish breakout below 188.50 (bull trap). RSI is around 70 on the daily timeframe → strong momentum, but signs of potential exhaustion. 🧠 Key Zones Identified Current weekly supply: 195.00 – 196.80 (being tested) Next resistance: 198.70 – 199.50 (swing high and monthly level) Immediate support: 194.00 – 192.80 (ideal area for pullback and long setups) Structural support: 190.50 – 188.80 Invalidation: Daily close below 191.00 → potential reversal signal 📈 Macro & Fundamental Context 🇬🇧 UK Macro Update Wages rising: +5.5% (above expectations) → could support further monetary tightening Claimant count increasing → early weakness in the labor market Mixed data, but wage growth bias favors GBP strength 🇯🇵 JPY Still Weak BoJ remains ultra-accommodative Verbal interventions from Japanese officials haven’t yet had structural impact 🪙 Retail Sentiment 70% of retail traders are short GBP/JPY, with an average price of 190.59 Only 30% are long, with an average price of 194.65 ➡️ Current price (196.30) is above both → retail squeeze in play. Contrarian setup confirmed. 🧾 COT Report GBP (Non-Commercial Speculators): Long: +3,320 contracts Short: -1,956 contracts ➡️ Net long positions increasing → favorable institutional exposure JPY: Mixed positions, with increases in both long and short → institutional neutrality on the yen 📅 Seasonality – GBP/JPY May is historically bearish on both 5Y and 20Y timeframes: 5Y: -2.52% 20Y: -0.43% Only the 2Y pattern shows a positive return ➡️ Negative seasonality vs. bullish technical structure → conflict worth watching 🔍 Execution Summary The bullish breakout is strong and supported by sentiment and institutional positioning, but price is now entering a potential distribution zone, where profit-taking could increase. 👉 Main scenario: technical pullback toward 194.00–192.80 for possible long entries, targeting 198.50–199.50 👉 Alternative scenario: daily close below 191.00 → bias reversal and bearish continuation
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
EURUSD Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1140 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.1281 Recommended Stop Loss - 1.1066 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
EURUSD - Expecting Bearish Continuation In The Short TermH1 - Clean bearish trend with the price creating series of lower highs, lower lows. Lower lows on the moving averages of the MACD indicator. Expecting further continuation lower until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by VladimirRibakov
EURUSD Tests Head and Shoulders Target Ahead of CPIIn line with the inverted head and shoulders formation seen on the DXY from its 2025 lows, EURUSD has completed a breakout of its own head and shoulders pattern, reaching the 1.1070 target. With the 4H RSI rebounding from oversold territory, a bullish bounce for EURUSD appears likely toward the 1.1140 level. A clean hold above this resistance could extend gains to 1.1270, 1.1380, 1.1430, and eventually to the 2025 high at 1.1570. If dollar strength resumes and EURUSD falls back below 1.1070, downside levels to watch include 1.1000, 1.0920, and 1.0760. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
EURUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 1.1189 a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibo retracement. Our take profit is set at 1.0979, a pullback support. The stop loss is set at 1.1397, above a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
EUR/USD should rebound to 1.1344-hour chart, The EUR/USD CMCMARKETS:EURUSD is trading in a falling expanding (broadening) wedge pattern. The price rebounded from the support level S, and is expected to test the upper resistance line R - at around 1.134 After crossing the line R, and stabilizing for 12 hours above this level, the target will be 1.157 to 1.159 - passing through the shown resistance levels 1.137 and 1.142 Consider a stop loss below the support line (currently 1.119) RSI is in the buy zone. MACD needs to cross up its signal line to confirm.
Long
by snour
EURUSD - Correction Wave A Completed?Technical Outlook — May 12, 2025 Current Market Condition: EUR/USD has broken below the ascending channel, indicating the potential start of a larger corrective wave structure. Price is currently in the process of completing wave A and is anticipated to retrace upward to form wave B before a possible continuation to the downside (wave C). Key Technical Highlights: Price rejected and broke rising channel and is now trading near EMA 50 (blue) Fibonacci Cloud is acting as a strong support for a retracement Stochastic oscillator is not fully inn oversold territory, suggesting a temporary relief bounce is possible before a bearish continuation Previous support turned resistance at 1.13000 aligns with the likely wave B retracement zone Possible Scenarios: Long Setup: As far as EMA 50 act as a support and there's a reversal candle, Wave B will start retracement to above resistance level and will provide a short Bullish trade to 1.12500 - 1.13000. Short Setup (after wave B completes): Look for a short entry around 1.12500-1.13000 zone after a succeful confirmation of reversal and set SL above this resistance. Aim for below support levels for your TPs. Invalidation: A sustained close above 1.1400 would invalidate the current wave count and bearish bias. Important Note: Key US CPI data is scheduled this week. Be cautious of increased volatility and fakeouts during news events. If you found this analysis valuable, kindly consider boosting and following for more updates. Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
by MarketsPOV
EurGbp….‘CE of a balanced FVG’Good day traders, EurGbp has been on my watchlist for sometime now and I was hesitant because of the strength shown on DXY and that made me think we’d have a quiet day here yesterday. With that been said the balanced price range is the grey rectangle shown on the chart and we can see that price showed a rejection by failing to close below the midpoint(CE). On the daily TF we are very much still bullish and till we shift structure lower on the daily TF, my overall sentiment remains. On the 4H TF we have a very bearish leg and from what we know price moves in a trend not a line so that also makes part of our thought process as well.
Long
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
EURUSD Expecting Bearish movementAfter the Geneva talks, the two sides announced a 90-day suspension of some tariff measures and a reduction in the tax rates of some goods. This progress has alleviated market concerns about the escalation of global trade frictions and weakened the attractiveness of the euro as a risky currency. Schnabel, an executive board member of the ECB, said, "There is no need for further interest rate cuts," believing that the current interest rate is at a neutral level. However, the market still expects that if the economic data in the eurozone is weak, the ECB may be forced to continue its easing policy within this year, which poses potential pressure on the euro. The exchange rate has fallen below the 200-day moving average (1.1195) and is far away from the 12-day EMA (1.1303) and the 26-day EMA (1.1284), and the short-term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement. MACD indicator: The DIFF (0.0044) is lower than the DEA (0.0089), and the negative value of the histogram has expanded, indicating an increase in the downward momentum. RSI (14): Currently at 43.29, it has not entered the oversold range, suggesting that there is still room for further decline. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Short
by HilaryBloomer
EURUSD first 1D MA50 test since March 03. Bearish?Last time we had a look at the EURUSD pair (April 28, see chart below), we gave a bearish continuation signal, which not only did it hit its 1.12500 Target but also broke below the 3-month Channel Down: This has brought us to the almost the first 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test since the March 03 break-out. As long as this holds, it keeps the trend bullish but the 1D RSI is on a Bearish Divergence, indicating a potential long-term trend change. Technically it is similar with the December 28 2023 High, which at the time of the 1D MA50 test was also on Higher Lows but its RSI on Lower Lows (Bearish Div). The 1D MA50 eventually broke, leading to a sell continuation that hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the bottom. As a result, if the D MA50 breaks, we will turn bearish, targeting 1.07000 (the 0.618 Fib). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
EUR/USD Slumps Below 1.1200, Risk of Deeper PullbackEUR/USD is breaking down after failing to hold the 1.1200 resistance level. The pair is now testing support at the 50-day SMA near 1.1110, with momentum clearly shifting bearish: 📉 MACD has rolled over into negative territory 📊 RSI at 43 and trending lower 🔵 Next support zone: 1.1040 (38.2% Fib of March–April rally) 🔵 Further levels to watch: 1.0875 = 50% retracement 1.0710 = 61.8% Fib and near the 200-day SMA A close below 1.1100 would confirm the bearish reversal and increase risk of a deeper correction toward the mid-1.08s. -MW
by FOREXcom
EURUSD: US inflation on scheduleThe most important event during the previous week was the FOMC meeting. The Fed left interest rates unchanged, as was expected. In an after-the-meeting statement, the FOMC members noted that they will stay committed to their dual mandate, bringing inflation toward targeted 2% and maximum employment. Still, considering ongoing challenges for the economy, especially those related to trade tariffs, the Fed Chair Powell noted that the Fed will be ready to act immediately if threats to the economy emerge in the future period. As for macro data published during the week, the US ISM Services PMI was standing at 51,6 in April, above market consensus of 50,6. The Balance of Trade reached $-140,5B, which represents a higher deficit from forecasted $-137B. The Factory Orders in Germany were higher by 3,6% in March, beating market expectations at 1,3%. The HCOB Construction PMI in April in the Euro Zone reached the level of 46, while the same indicator for Germany was at the level of 45,1. The Retail Sales in the Euro Zone in March dropped by -0,1% for the month, reaching a 1,5% increase on a yearly basis. The Balance of Trade in Germany reached euro 21,1B in March, higher from forecasted euro 20,8B. The Industrial Production in Germany in March was higher by 3% for the month, significantly above market expectation of 0,5%. As expected, the FOMC meeting caused higher volatility on financial markets. Currently, the most sensitive topics are related to further decrease of the US interest rates and potential negative impact of trade tariffs on the US economy. Since Fed Chair Powell brought some confidence to market participants that the Fed is ready to react in case of worsening economic conditions, the US Dollar gained in strength. The eurusd currency pair started the week around the level of 1,1370 and moved to the downside for the rest of the week, ending it at 1,1248. The RSI started its stronger move toward the level of 50, indicating the potential that the market will soon look at the oversold market side. The MA50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, confirming further the cross occurred some time ago. The US April inflation figures are scheduled for a release on Tuesday next week. Depending on figures, there is some probability of higher market volatility. The support line at 1,12 has been shortly tested during the previous week. The start of the week ahead might bring some further testing of this level. In case that this level is broken to the downside, then the next supporting level will be at 1,11, but this is not a significant level, on a historical scale of eurusd movements. There is also an equal probability that the market will shortly revert to the upside, when 1,13 might be tested for one more time. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May for the Euro Zone and Germany, Inflation Rate in Germany, final for April, Industrial Production in the EuroZone, GDP Growth Rate Q/Q, second estimate for Q1, USD: Inflation Rate in April, Producers Price Index in April, Industrial Production in April, Building Permits preliminary for April, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for May
by XBTFX
EURUSD Will Go Down! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 1.125. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 1.114 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
Euro may exit from wedge and then drop to support levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. After a strong impulse to the upside and a retest of the 1.1265 resistance area, the Euro started to consolidate inside a downward wedge. Despite repeated attempts to hold above the 1.1265 - 1.1300 zone, price action gradually shifted lower, creating lower highs within the wedge formation. This pattern often signals continuation or deeper correction, especially when formed after a large bullish move. The recent breakout below both the support area and the lower wedge boundary confirms that bearish pressure is taking control. The rejection from the seller zone and the sharp decline reinforce this shift in sentiment. Now the price is trading near the support line of the wedge and showing weak attempts to recover, forming a potential retest of the broken structure. Given the break of support, I expect the Euro may continue its decline toward the 1.0925 level, which coincides with both the buyer zone and a well-defined support level, thereby exiting from wedge pattern. This zone serves as my current TP 1. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
6
EURO - Price can break support level and continue to fallHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 A few moments ago price traded near $1.0835 level and then it made strong upward impulse, breaking this level. Then it continued to move up inside an upward pennant, where it reached the next support level, which broke soon too. After this movement, it reached the resistance line of the pennant and then corrected the support line. Euro tried to grow more, but failed and started to decline inside falling channel, exiting from pennant pattern. In falling channel, price declined to $1.1200 support level and then turn around and start to move up. I think that Euro can grow a little and then fall to $1.1065 support line of channel, breaking support level. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Short
by WalterMoon
9
Gold - New All Time High in the making?market context and trend environment This 4-hour chart of Gold (XAU/USD) from OANDA illustrates a strong impulsive structure within a broader bullish trend. Following a sharp upward movement that broke through previous structure, gold formed a swing high before entering a corrective phase. The market has since pulled back and appears to be stabilizing near a zone of high confluence, suggesting potential for a renewed move to the upside. Price has respected key retracement levels, reinforcing the technical strength of this zone. fair value gap and fibonacci confluence A notable feature of this setup is the alignment between a visible fair value gap and the Fibonacci golden pocket zone, comprising the 0.618–0.65 retracement levels. This convergence of technical tools adds weight to the significance of the support zone around the 3,280–3,300 region. Fair value gaps represent inefficiencies in the market caused by strong institutional participation, while the golden pocket is historically known for acting as a magnet for reversals within trending markets. The presence of both in the same area increases the likelihood of price reacting positively here. liquidity sweep and structural reaction Before revisiting this key demand zone, price briefly swept below a local low, which may have served as a liquidity grab to fuel the next bullish leg. This liquidity sweep is followed by a sharp reaction, suggesting that downside pressure may have been absorbed by aggressive buyers positioned at the FVG and golden pocket. Price has since rebounded, and the subsequent price action shows a gradual formation of higher lows, hinting at a shift in short-term order flow back in favor of buyers. projection and bullish scenario The chart projects a potential bullish continuation move, with a series of higher lows anticipated to form en route to a break of structure above recent swing highs. Multiple buy-side liquidity levels (BSL) are marked, representing areas where buy stops are likely to be clustered. These zones offer clear targets for bullish expansion. The blue arrowed projection outlines a methodical stair-step advance, respecting interim levels before ultimately attempting to reach the prior high near 3,530. strategic framework and trader insight This chart offers a methodical roadmap for bullish continuation, rooted in the smart money framework of liquidity, inefficiency, and institutional order flow. The confluence between the fair value gap and Fibonacci retracement is particularly notable and serves as a key validation area for bullish traders. Rather than anticipating immediate breakout behavior, the projection emphasizes a progressive structure that aligns with how larger players tend to accumulate positions before moving the market. Patience and alignment with structure are emphasized as price prepares for a potential continuation move higher.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Louigi_24
99