EURUSD
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness
The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations.
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Eurozone: Fragility Persists
Industrial and Consumer Weakness
Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects.
PMI and GDP Concerns
The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB).
ECB's Dovish Tilt
ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook.
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United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges
Economic and Labor Market Data
The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode.
The labor market also remains a pillar of strength:
- Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k).
- Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%).
- Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%).
While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling.
Fed's Monetary Policy Path
Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report.
Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability.
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Inflation and Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience:
- 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%).
- Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8).
Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal.
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EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact
Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach.
Key Factors Driving EUR/USD:
1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance.
2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals.
3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy.
While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Weekly Forex Forecast: EURUSD May Pullback This Week!EUR Futures has printed a bullish Inside Bar on the Weekly TF. This potentially shows a shift in the market from a bearish to bullish bias. A pullback may be starting. This makes sense, as price has traded through the Swing Low, and a significant retracement is a bit overdue.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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EURUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.06800 zone, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.06800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness
The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations.
---
Eurozone: Fragility Persists
Industrial and Consumer Weakness
Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects.
PMI and GDP Concerns
The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB).
ECB's Dovish Tilt
ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook.
---
United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges
Economic and Labor Market Data
The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode.
The labor market also remains a pillar of strength :
- Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k).
- Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%).
- Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%).
While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling.
Fed's Monetary Policy Path
Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report.
Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability.
---
Inflation and Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience:
- 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%).
- Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8).
Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal.
---
EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact
Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach.
Key Factors Driving EUR/USD:
1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance.
2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals.
3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy.
While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
The Silent Cost of FOMO Trades: What Your Anxiety Is SayingLast Thursday, I watched my 8-year-old nephew at a birthday party, desperately trying to play with every toy, eat every snack, and join every game simultaneously. He ended up in tears, overwhelmed and exhausted, having fully enjoyed none of them. Looking at my trading journal that evening, I had to laugh - I'd done exactly the same thing in the markets that day.
The FOMO Frenzy
You know that feeling - EUR/USD is climbing, GBP/JPY is breaking out, and USD/CAD is testing support. Your heart races. Your palms sweat. Suddenly you've got positions in all three pairs, and your mind is spinning like a circus juggler with too many balls in the air.
What Your Anxiety Is Really Saying
That knot in your stomach? It's not just stress - it's your internal risk manager throwing up red flags. Think of anxiety like your car's check engine light. Most people try to ignore it or put tape over it. But what if that warning light is actually your most valuable trading tool?
The Real Cost (It's Not Just Money)
Last month, I lost 4% of my account in a single day chasing trades. But the real cost wasn't the money - it was:
Three sleepless nights
Snapping at my wife over breakfast
Missing my kid's soccer game because I was glued to charts
Taking twice as long to recover my confidence
The Birthday Party Strategy
Now I treat my trading like I wish my nephew had handled that birthday party. Pick one game. Enjoy it fully. Then, if it makes sense, move to the next one. In trading terms:
One trade at a time
Full focus on that setup
Clear exit plan
]No peeking at other pairs until this trade is managed
Your Brain on FOMO
Here's what happens when FOMO kicks in - your brain floods with dopamine, the same chemical that makes my nephew grab three cupcakes at once. Your prefrontal cortex (the rational part) gets overwhelmed by your limbic system (the emotional part). Suddenly you're trading like a sugar-rushed 8-year-old.
The Solution: Your Personal FOMO Filter
I've taped a note to my monitor that asks:
"If this were the only trade you could take this month, would you take it?"
It's amazing how quickly FOMO evaporates when you frame it that way. I went from taking 15-20 trades per week to 2-5, and my profit has doubled.
Your Next Step
FIf you find yourself battling FOMO, try this: Each time you feel the urge to place a trade, wait 5 minutes. Just 5 minutes. Write down what you're feeling. You'll be amazed at how many FOMO trades never make it past this 5-minute filter.
Remember, the market is like an endless birthday party - it'll be there tomorrow, next week, and next year. You don't have to play every game or eat every cupcake today.
Cheers to your success,
Gio
Euro rally ends, Eurozone GDP expected to accelerateThe euro is steady on Friday after jumping 0.7% a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0581, down 0.06% at the time of writing.
The eurozone wraps up the week with the GDP and job growth reports and the market is expecting an improvement. Third-quarter GDP is expected to improve to 0.4% q/q from o.2% in the second quarter. Job growth if forecast to tick upwards to 0.2% q/q, up from 0.1% in Q2.
In France, the political chaos continues. A no-confidence vote passed this week and has left the country without a functioning government. Prime Minister Michel Barnier resigned on Thursday after just three months in office. President Emmanuel Macron said he will name a new prime minister shortly but the political crisis could push up French interest rates and the country's large debt.
Germany, once the powerful locomotive of the eurozone, has faltered badly and has hampered growth in the eurozone. This week's German manufacturing data was dismal. The Manufacturing PMI remains mired in contraction and was unchanged at 43.0 in November. Factory orders for October declined by 1.5% after a 7.2% gain a month earlier. On Friday, industrial production fell 1% in October, after a 2% decline in September and shy of the market estimate of 1.2%.
The German Services PMI slipped into contraction in November and there is political instability, as the coalition German government collapsed in November. A snap election has been scheduled for Feb. 23, 2025.
The US wraps up the week with the nonfarm payroll report. With inflation largely contained, the employment growth is once again a key release can move the US dollar. The November report is expected to rise to a respectable 200 thousand, after a weak gain of 12 thousand in October, which was driven downwards by hurricanes and work stoppages at Boeing.
EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0615 and 1.0644
1.0562 and 1.0533 are providing support
Dollar Index Alert: Reversal Pattern Emerging – Learn MoreLuckily, I spotted a classic reversal pattern right on the edge of triggering.
The combination of three peaks, with the tallest in the middle, has formed a Head & Shoulders chart pattern on the Dollar Index futures daily chart.
The right shoulder is almost complete, and the bearish trigger will be activated if the price breaks below the Neckline (the line connecting the valleys of the Head), which sits under 105.30.
The target is calculated by subtracting the height of the Head from the Neckline breakdown point, giving us a target around 103.10.
The RSI indicator is also on the edge. Watch for a breakdown here as additional confirmation.
EUR/USD Remains Cautious: Traders Await US Payrolls DataThe EUR/USD currency pair remains cautious as it trades below the 1.0600 level during the European session on Friday, just shy of a previous resistance zone. The US Dollar is maintaining its stability, supported by profit-taking and a subdued risk appetite among investors. Market participants are hesitant to commit to new positions ahead of the pivotal US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which includes key indicators such as Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. The day's events are significant and will likely influence the direction of the DXY index as we approach the new week.
From a technical perspective, the price remains under the 1.0600 resistance level. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates a shift in retailer positioning towards a bullish sentiment, while non-commercial traders continue to display a bearish outlook.
Currently, we are refraining from taking any positions. However, we maintain a bearish bias and anticipate a potential decline that could retest the 1.0400 zone or even extend lower.
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XAUUSD H1 Short From S/R TP BEARS 2565 USD🔸Hello traders, today let's review 1hour price chart for gold. Recently
price action compressed into rising wedge and then broke down
currently re-test of breakdown zone in progress.
🔸Strong resistances at 2655/2665 USD, shorting from resistance
is the recommended strategy right now, limited upside.
🔸Recommended strategy bears: short sell from overhead resistances near 2655/65 SL 2675 USD TP1 2600 TP2 2565 usd. usd fixed stop loss for this entry at 2675 usd, swing trade setup may take more time to hit target. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Long to Resistance area 1.06197.Colleagues, Price closed the gap and now I believe that wave “C” is almost over or already over.
Therefore, I think that we should look only at long positions with the aim to reach the area of 1.06197.
There are 2 possible scenarios:
1) Wave “C” is finally formed and the price will continue the upward movement. (More risky market entry)
2) The price will still make a small movement to the nearest minimum and here I would recommend placing pending limit orders.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 06, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD is declining to 1.0575 at the start of the European session on Friday. Concerns over US tariffs on European goods and rising bets on interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) are weighing on the Euro against the US Dollar. This Friday, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will take center stage.
The single currency remains on the defensive as traders are concerned about potential tariff policies on all goods imported into the US, which could undermine the Eurozone economy. In addition, the ECB is widely expected to cut the interest rate at its last monetary policy meeting of the year. All but two of the 75 economists surveyed believe the ECB will cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Dec. 12.
On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would appoint a new prime minister in the coming days, with the top priority being parliament's passage of the 2025 budget. Any signs of political uncertainty in France could contribute to the euro's decline.
Abroad, the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce borrowing costs at its December meeting could put pressure on the dollar and limit EUR/USD's decline. Markets now estimate the probability that the central bank will cut rates by a quarter point at its December 17-18 meeting at 70.1%.
Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0570, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
EURUSD - 4hrs ( buy Trade Target Range 200 PIP ) Pair Name :EUR/USD
Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close
Scale Type : Large Scale
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Key Technical / Direction ( Long )
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Bullish Break
1.05850 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level
- visible range Hvn
- Pattern Break
- CHoch Zone
- Fixed Range Hvn
Bearish Reversal
1.08600 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level
- Visible Range Hvn
- Fixed Range Hvn
- Pattern upper Band
- Choch Zone
EURUSD - 3 Tops Pointing For A RejectionEURUSD has completed the Bullish move as highlighted in previous analysis and despite 3rd attempt, failed to break the resistance. If we have a 3rd Top on 4H, we may see a strong rejection which could open lower levels.
For Bulls to cotinue, they must have a sustained break above the resistance.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
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Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Euro can make retest of support line and then continue move upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see how the price some days ago started to decline inside the range, where it in a short time fell to the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone with the bottom part of the range. Next, the price turned around and quickly rose to the top part of the range, making a first gap, after which turned around and made impulse down, thereby exiting from the range and breaking the 1.0760 level. Then the price tried to back up, but it made a fake breakout of 1.0760 level and then continued to fall inside the downward pennant. Later, the Euro fell to the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone and broke it too, after which declined to support line of the pennant. Then the price made an upward impulse, thereby making a second gap, after which broke the 1.0480 level one more time and continued to move up. Some time later Euro reached the resistance line of the pennant, after which made a correction to the support level, but a not long time ago it rebounded up, thereby exiting from the pennant pattern. Now I think that the Euro can make a retest, after exiting from the pennant and then continue to move up. For this reason, I set my TP at 1.0680 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EUR/USD: Mixed Signals Amid Diverging Economic OutlooksEUR/USD: Mixed Signals Amid Diverging Economic Outlooks
The EUR/USD currency pair remains at the center of market attention, reflecting the complex interplay of economic dynamics on both sides of the Atlantic. Recent data releases, central bank signals, and historical trends provide a nuanced picture of the pair's trajectory as the year draws to a close.
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Eurozone: A Cloudy Economic Picture
Weak Industrial and Retail Data:
Germany, the Eurozone's economic engine, reported a 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, which, despite beating expectations, highlights underlying weakness. Additionally, retail sales across the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, signaling softness in consumer spending—a crucial growth driver.
Muted Composite PMI and Revised GDP Forecasts:
The Composite PMI ticked up slightly to 48.3 but remains in contraction territory, reflecting the region's economic fragility. Adding to the woes, Italy revised its GDP forecasts downward, compounding the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to take more accommodative measures.
ECB Policy Signals:
ECB officials, including Robert Holzmann, have hinted at a possible rate cut in December, marking a shift towards cautious easing. However, the outlook is complicated by ongoing political instability in France, where a looming no-confidence vote against President Macron underscores broader regional challenges.
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United States: Resilience Amid Headwinds
Economic Stability and Fed Policy:
The U.S. economy continues to exhibit resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3%, and construction spending increased by 0.4%, both meeting or exceeding expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the broader picture suggests steady growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the strength of the U.S. economy while maintaining a cautious approach to monetary policy.
Labor Market Dynamics:
The U.S. labor market remains robust, with JOLTS job openings rising to 7.744 million in October. However, the Challenger Layoffs report showed a slight increase, signaling the beginning of a potential cooling phase. The Federal Reserve remains focused on labor market stability as a key factor in its inflation trajectory.
Monetary Policy Outlook:
Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at the possibility of rate cuts in 2024, aligning with broader market expectations. While inflation is gradually easing, the Fed's restrictive stance underscores its commitment to flexibility and data dependency.
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Seasonality and EUR/USD Dynamics
December has historically been favorable for the euro, driven by reduced market liquidity and year-end position adjustments. However, the current macroeconomic environment challenges this seasonal pattern. Weak eurozone data and the relative strength of the U.S. economy suggest that traditional seasonal trends may not be enough to reverse the bearish momentum.
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EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Prevails
Despite modest gains in recent weeks, the long-term trend for EUR/USD remains bearish. The eurozone's economic struggles and the ECB's dovish tilt contrast starkly with the U.S. economy's stability and the Fed's measured approach. Seasonal factors may offer temporary support for the euro, but sustained appreciation seems unlikely under the prevailing market conditions.
As the year concludes, traders should remain vigilant, balancing historical patterns with evolving economic data and central bank actions. For now, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD appears to be downward, with limited potential for a significant rebound.
EURUSD The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.0537
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.0506
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XAU/USD : Bullish or Bearish? Let's See! (READ THE CAPTION)Analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we observed that gold continued its upward movement as expected yesterday, reaching the $2652 level before facing a correction. Currently, gold is trading around the $2640 level.
- Bullish Scenario: If the price stabilizes above $2640, we can anticipate further growth with $2660 as the first target.
- Bearish Scenario: If it fails to hold above this level, a move toward $2623 is very likely.
This analysis will be updated as the situation develops!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
EURNZD H4 Smart Money Outlook LONG/SHORT +220/+360🔸Hello traders, let's review the 4hour chart for EURNZD today.
All previous setups hit TP, congrats if you followed.
🔸Right now EURNZD trading at 7830, expecting further losses
until we trigger 4 hour BB zone at/near 7700. Retrace incoming
to trigger overhead 4 hour OB zone at/near 7920.
🔸Bulls will setup a bear trap after break of structure / break of
last weekly low, then expecting reversal to trigger fresh overhead
liquidity before the pullback/correction resumes.
🔸Recommended strategy for EURNZD: LONG/SHORT sequence,
LONG at/near H4 BB 7700 SL 7660 TP 7920 +220 pips, part two
of the sequence short from H4 OB at/neat 7920 SL 7960 TP is
7560 bullish H4 heavy order block, for reference see price chart.
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
EURUSD Will Go Higher From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.052.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.068 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
EURUSD - Possible Scenarios For US SessionEURUSD is currently at a make or break situation. Overall there's been a Bearish momentum however price is in correction mode. Above possible scenarios are for high impact news coming in US session.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
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Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.