EURUSD
EURUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 1.0531, an overlap resistance
A rejection at this level could drive prices lower toward our take profit at 1.0456, a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
The stop loss is set at 1.0592, a swing high resistance.
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Bullish momentum to extend?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0456
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0392
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.0532
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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EUR/USD getting close to target after tariffs rebound...The EUR/USD has rebounded nicely from two weeks prior when we gapped down pretty significantly after tariffs were announced. The original observation was bullish after identifying a bullish pattern (Descending Megaphone) alongside MACD divergence.
We're stalling at the moment around 1.0500 and I don't expect any further movement throughout the day considering it's a U.S. market holiday however, I'm continuing to hold on to my long position and eying an exit at 1.0600 which is where the yearly pivot point is located.
If we do get to see the 1.0600 price, I will be evaluating short positions somewhere in this zone. We'll see how the remainder of this week develops and go from there.
Good Luck & Trade Safe.
Latest analysis of EUR/USDAfter a period of consolidation, EUR/USD is still hovering around the key resistance level of 1.0500, which is crucial for the trend of the euro. From a technical perspective, the current exchange rate trend remains above the 50-day moving average, which is around 1.04, providing support for bulls. The 50-day moving average is usually regarded as a guide for the medium-term trend. The price can remain above it, indicating that the current market is still bullish.
In addition, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is currently approaching 60.00. If the RSI further breaks through this level and remains above this area, it may provide stronger upward momentum for EUR/USD. The breakthrough of RSI usually means a change in market sentiment. Breaking through 60.00 means that the bullish force may further increase, pushing the exchange rate upward.
In terms of support, the low of 1.0285 on February 10 will be a key support area for EUR/USD. If the price falls below this support level, it may trigger a further correction. It should be noted that the current upward momentum is still relatively limited. If the price continues to consolidate around 1.0500, a sideways pattern may form in the short term.
On the other hand, the resistance level of 1.0630 is also very important. This price range is the high point of December 6 last year. If the price breaks through this resistance level, it may mean a larger upside, especially in the upward trend after breaking through the 50-day moving average.
On the whole, the current technical side of EUR/USD shows some upside potential, but it still needs more upside momentum to break through the psychological level of 1.0500. If the RSI continues to rise and remains above 60, the possibility of breaking through the key resistance level will increase. On the contrary, if the price falls back below 1.0285, it may re-test the lower support level.
EURUSD Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on EURUSD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 1.0487 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.0390
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD: warming inflation, or not?One of the most important events during the previous week was Fed Chairs Powell testimony in front of the US Congress. Some key takeaways from this hearing was that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates and that Fed's decisions will stay independent from any political interference. As for macro data posted during the previous week, January inflation data were in the spotlight of the market. Posted figures show a bit hotter inflation of 0,5% for the month, a bit higher from market estimate of 0,3%. Inflation rate on a yearly basis reached 3%. Core inflation continues to be elevated at 0,4% in January and 3,3% on a yearly basis. The Producers Price Index reached 0,4% in January, again higher from market estimate of 0,3%, while core PPI was at the level of 0,3% and in line with market consensus. The Retail Sales dropped by -0,9% in January, much higher from market expectation of -0,1%. The Retail Sales were higher by 4,2% on a yearly basis.
The inflation rate in January in Germany was standing at -0,2% for the month and 2,3% y/y. The GDP growth rate, second estimate for Q4 in the Euro Zone was 0,1%, and a bit higher from forecasted 0%. The GDP growth rate, second estimate for the year, was standing at 0,9%.
The US inflation in January, which was hotter than the market estimate, made investors prefer euro over dollar during the previous week. The currency pair started the week at levels modestly below the 1,03 level, and was pushed for the rest of the week toward the higher grounds. The highest weekly level was reached on Friday, at 1,051. The currency pair ended the week at the level of 1,0487. The RSI also reverted its move toward the level of 60, however, there is still enough space for the higher ground until the clear overbought market side is reached. The MA50 continues to slow down its divergence from MA200, with a solid distance between two lines, in which sense, the cross is not in the store anytime soon.
The currency pair reached the resistance line at 1,05 which had been tested during the previous week. Based on current charts, the eurusd will most probably continue to test these levels at the start of the week ahead. Considering a Holiday in the US on Monday, and lack of release of currently important data for markets, which is related to inflation, it should not be expected to have some higher volatility during the week. On the upside, the 1,05 level will be tested for one more time, while on the opposite side, there is a possibility for a short reversal, but not below the 1,04 support line.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in February for both EuroZone and Germany, PPI in January for Germany, HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash in February in Germany and the Euro Zone,
USD: Due to Holiday in the US markets will be closed on Monday, Building Permits preliminary in January, Housing Starts in January, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Existing Home Sales in January, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for February.
Chart Patterns That Keep Showing Up (Are Traders Predictable?)In the grand theater of financial markets, traders often fancy themselves as rational actors, making decisions based on cold, hard data. Yet, time and again, their collective behavior etches familiar patterns onto price charts, as if choreographed by an unseen hand (the Invisible Hand?)
All across the world economy , markets trade in patterns. The trick is to spot those patterns before they unfold.
These recurring formations, known as chart patterns, are a testament to the predictability of human psychology in trading. Let's rediscover some of these enduring patterns, exploring why they persist and how you can leverage them.
🚿 The Head and Shoulders: More Than a Shampoo Brand
Imagine a market trend as a partygoer who's had one too many. Initially, they're lively (the left shoulder), then they reach peak status of euphoria (the head), but eventually, they slump with one last “let’s go party people” (the right shoulder). This sequence forms the Head and Shoulders pattern, signaling a trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
Traders spot this pattern by identifying three peaks: a central, higher peak flanked by two lower, similar-sized peaks on each side. The neckline, drawn by connecting the lows between these peaks, becomes the critical support level. A break below this line suggests the party's over, and it's time to exit or short the trading instrument.
Conversely, the Inverse Head and Shoulders indicates a reversal from bearish to bullish, resembling a person doing a headstand—a strong sign the market's ready to flip.
Ready to hunt down the charts for some Head and Shoulders? Try out the Head and Shoulders drawing tool .
⛰️ Double Tops and Bottoms: Déjà Vu in Trading
Ever experience déjà vu? The market does too, in the form of Double Tops and Bottoms. A Double Top resembles the letter "M," where the price hits a high, retreats, and then tests that high again before declining. It's the market's way of saying, "I've been here before, and I'm not going higher."
The Double Bottom, shaped like a "W," occurs when the price drops to a low, rebounds, and then retests that low before rising. It's akin to the market finding a sturdy trampoline at support levels, ready to bounce back.
These patterns reflect traders' reluctance to push prices beyond established highs or lows, leading to reversals.
⚠️ Triangles: The Market's Waiting Game
When traders are indecisive, prices often consolidate, forming Triangle patterns. These come in three flavors:
Ascending Triangle : Characterized by a flat upper resistance line and a rising lower support line. Buyers are gaining strength, repeatedly pushing prices up to a resistance level. A breakout above this resistance suggests bullish momentum.
Descending Triangle : Features a flat lower support line and a descending upper resistance line. Sellers are in control, and a break below support signals bearish continuation.
Symmetrical Triangle : Both support and resistance lines converge, indicating a standoff between buyers and sellers. The eventual breakout can go either way, and traders watch closely for directional cues.
Triangles epitomize the market's pause before a storm, as participants gather conviction for the next move.
Feel like looking for some triangles on charts? Jump straight to our easy-to-use Triangle Pattern drawing tool .
🏁 Flags and Pennants: The Market Takes a Breather
After a strong price movement, the market often needs a breather, leading to Flags and Pennants. These are short-term continuation patterns that indicate a brief consolidation before the trend resumes.
Flag : Resembles a parallelogram sloping against the prevailing trend. It's like the market catching its breath before sprinting again.
Pennant : Looks like a small symmetrical triangle that forms after a sharp move. Think of it as the market pitching a tent before continuing its journey.
Recognizing these patterns helps traders position themselves for the next leg of the trend.
🧠 The Psychology Behind Pattern Persistence
Why do these patterns keep appearing? The answer lies in human psychology. Traders, despite access to vast information, are influenced by emotions like fear and greed. This collective sentiment manifests in predictable ways, creating patterns on charts.
For instance, the Head and Shoulders pattern emerges because traders, after pushing prices to a peak, become cautious. Early sellers take profits, causing a dip. A second rally (the head) attracts more participants, but if it fails to sustain, confidence wanes, leading to a sell-off. The final attempt (right shoulder) lacks conviction, and once support breaks, the downtrend ensues.
Understanding the emotional drivers behind these patterns allows traders to anticipate moves and strategize accordingly.
🎯 Using Patterns to Your Advantage
While recognizing patterns is valuable, it's crucial to approach them with a discerning eye:
Confirmation is Key : Don't act on a pattern until it's confirmed. For example, in a Head and Shoulders, wait for a break below the neckline before taking a position.
Volume Matters : Volume often validates a pattern. A genuine breakout is usually accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating strong participation.
Contextual Awareness : Consider the broader market context. Patterns can yield false signals in volatile or news-driven environments.
Risk Management : Always set stop-loss orders to protect against unexpected moves. Patterns suggest probabilities, not certainties.
🧬 The Evolution of Patterns in Modern Markets
In today's algorithm-driven trading landscape, one might wonder if traditional chart patterns still hold relevance. Interestingly, even sophisticated trading algorithms (those used by hedge funds and investment managers) are programmed based on historical patterns and human behavior, perpetuating the cycle.
Moreover, as long as markets are driven by human participants, emotions will influence decisions, and patterns will emerge. The tools may evolve, but the underlying psychology remains constant.
🤗 Conclusion: Embrace the Predictability
In the volatile world of trading, chart patterns serve as a bridge between market psychology and price action. They offer insights into collective behavior, providing traders with a framework to anticipate movements.
By studying these recurring formations, traders can align their strategies with market sentiment, turning the predictability of human nature into a trading edge.
What’s your go-to technical analysis pattern? Are you and H&S trader or maybe you prefer to trade double tops? Share your approach in the comments!
EURUSD About to turn bearish again on Double StructureThe EURUSD pair has been on a Bullish Leg since the February 09 Low and is approaching the January 27 High, which is its technical Resistance level. Technically, every such test has been rejected down to at least the 0.786 Fibonacci level but since we might be within a Channel Up, it is possible to see one last push to complete a +2.68% rise from the February 09 Low.
The 0.786 Fib then will fall below the Channel Up so to account for that technical miss of support, our Target will be the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 1.03125.
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XAU/USD : Bull or Bear? Let's See! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the 30-minute gold chart, we can see that, as expected, gold resumed its bullish momentum, successfully hitting the $2,923 and $2,929 targets with ease, and even extending its rally to $2,940.
With this move, gold filled the Fair Value Gap (FVG) mentioned in the previous analysis and reached its bearish order block.
Currently, gold is trading around $2,927, and the next move will depend on price stability:
• If gold holds above $2,929 for the next 4 hours, we could see another bullish push.
• If gold fails to hold above this key level, we might see a pullback towards $2,923 as the first corrective target.
Stay tuned for further updates!
EURUSD - Swing Buy on MidWeek Reversal & USD News (CPI)Reasons for this setup being higher probability:
HTF is bullish because of the doji on Monthly and momentum on Weekly chart.
We've created a protected low, confirmed by Divergence with GBPUSD.
Market created momentum higher.
We're now in a retracement phase.
Looking for the market to flip up with a reversal pattern on the LTF before entering.
Continuing in the bullish HTF idea.
EURUSD - what to expect?Here is our in-depth view and update on EURUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels .
Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at EURUSD from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame and following our original analysis posted on February 4th (check image below).
Now after we broke to the upside we are waiting to make a pullback on the pair (based on the H4 time-frame). As of now we are sitting on our hands and patiently waiting on the pullback to happen or possible reverses and join the uptrend. TVC:EXY has seen some strength last week regardless of the positive data for the TVC:DXY which gave back gains after U.S. President Donald Trump said in a social media post that he had spoken with Russian President Vladamir Putin about starting negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. This still holds positive weight on the EUR overall. Considering this, we can pre-plan some possible outcomes including both fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
Scenario 1: BUYS at the break the highs (1.05140)
- We broke above 1.05140.
With the break of this level we can expect a possible move towards the upside without even creating a deeper pullback. The technical analysis and fundamentals would be on our side.
Scenario 2: BUYS at the pullback (1.04360)
- We came down to our PBA (Pullback Area) at around 1.04360.
With the pullback completed and the price respecting this area, we could potentially see more upside on this pair from this KL (Key Level). Long-term buys at this price would be valid. Again technical and fundamentals analysis would both be on our side.
KEY NOTES
- EXY (EUR) showing strength after last week’s positive “news”.
- Breaks to the upside would confirm higher highs.
- Respecting our PBA (Pullback Area - 1.04360 would give us a buy opportunity.
- Possible resolutions between Ukraine and Russia.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
To fade or not to trade? (Example: EUR/USD)There is a correction taking place in the US dollar uptrend. Do we trade against the prevailing trend, or sit on our hands and do nothing? To fade or not to trade, that is the question.
On a surface level, the current environment is a trading range - following a long downtrend.
When a strong major trend has been in place for around 3 months - sometimes sooner - sometimes later (we have observed 3 months as a good benchmark) something has to change - either there is a significant correction or the trend reverses.
The challenge lies in distinguishing between the two. Reacting too early risks fighting momentum, while reacting too late means missing an opportunity.
After years of trading, I’ve realised the goal is not to guess – but to follow a structured trading system that tilts the odds in our favor. The system doesn’t work every time of course but it gives you a way to approach the market.
Let me outline now - a system using Fractals & the 30-Week Moving Average to help you decide which way to trade the market
1. Identify the Primary Trend
Use the 30-week moving average (30 WMA) as the trend filter.
Uptrend: Price is consistently above the 30 WMA, and the slope is rising.
Downtrend: Price is consistently below the 30 WMA, and the slope is falling.
A strong trend remains in place as long as price respects the 30 WMA. A violation suggests a shift is possible.
2. Look for Fractal Confirmation of a Shift
In an uptrend, a higher low followed by a higher high confirms continuation.
In a downtrend, a lower high followed by a lower low confirms continuation.
* The key fractal to watch for a potential bottom after a downtrend – is the first higher low after a downtrend correction that made a higher high (potential bottom)
* The key fractal to watch for a potential top after an uptrend – is the first lower high after an uptrend correction that made a lower low (potential reversal)
So, how about what’s happening now?
The weekly chart shows a base has formed at 1.02 in EUR/USD.
Price closed last week right at support-turned-resistance around 1.05.
A ‘higher high’ was formed followed by a ‘higher low’ as demonstrated by the green and red fractals accordingly.
However, the price remains below the 30-week moving average.
We can see the setup better on the daily chart as a shallow downtrend line.
The pattern beneath the trendline is a messy inverse head and shoulders. As such, should the trendline break to the upside it is a bullish signal. And if the trendline holds, it signals the trend is still just consolidating before a continuation lower.
We think there’s a good chance this trendline breaks given the alignment of the weekly fractals.
So fade the downtrend or ignore the move upwards?
To answer that it helps to think about the next step. If the price does break higher, how high is it likely to go? There is resistance at 1.06 from the late November and December peaks. Then the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 30-week moving average come in around 1.07.
The reason fading a trend has a lower probability of success vs trading with the trend is because there is so much nearby resistance (in the case of trading a bottom).
You can absolutely fade this trend but our experience tells us the price often fails at a nearby resistance level, capping the risk:reward potential on long positions- and simultaneously offering a nice opportunity for short positions.
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request!
Drop us a comment!
cheers!
Jasper
DeGRAM | EURUSD broke the downward structureEURUSD is above the descending channel between the trend lines.
The price is moving from the dynamic support and has already consolidated above the upper boundary of the channel.
The chart has broken the descending structure and has already approached the past top.
We expect the pair to continue rising after consolidating above the 1.04327 level.
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EURUSD Is Going Down! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.047.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.040 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
EUR/USD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
The BB upper band is nearby so EUR-USD is in the overbought territory. Thus, despite the uptrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bearish reaction from the resistance line above and a move down towards the target at around 1.039.
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Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG resistance area 1.05281 (Wave 3).Colleagues, price has traveled a long distance and this could mean that price is moving in impulse. This means that the price is in wave “1” and now a correction is expected in wave ‘2’ (50% Fibonacci level 1.03264) and then I expect the upward movement to continue in wave “3” which will reach the resistance area 1.05281.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
+240 pips EURUSD XABCD Short From PRZ/D Advanced🔸Hello traders, let's review the 4 hour chart for EURUSD. Strong gains off the lows recently, however price getting overextended and expecting reversal later at/near PRZ/D.
🔸Speculative XABCD structure defined by point X 0600 point A 0200 point B 0500 point C 0250 point D/PRZ 0660/0680 still pending.
🔸Currently most points validated, point D/PRZ still pending 0660, so traders should wait until we hit D before SHORTING.
🔸Recommended strategy for EUR traders: wait for price to max out to complete at point D near 0660/0680, short/hold, SL 60 pips, TP1 +240 pips TP2 +380 pips Final exit TP at 0240. SHORT/HOLD at point D/PRZ at 0660. swing trade setup. keep in mind this is a swing trade setup, patience required.
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EURUSD 17 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 17 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
No major economic news for today and market sentiment still continuing as per my Weekly Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play.
🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed).
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High to facilitate to the Daily and Weekly expected Bullish move.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing continuation after BOS, Waiting Swing pullback phase.
2️⃣
🔹Bullish Swing structure continuing bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase.
🔹After the recent Swing BOS, INT structures continuing bullish and I’m expecting the 15m BOS pullback to start soon with Bearish iBOS.
🔹Current INT structures could be treated as Swing structures, but I prefer to have the 15m Swing Bullish even when we have a deep pullback.
🔹INT Structure still can hold bullish to facilitate the 4H target the Weak Swing High (Bullish BOS on 4H before pullback).
3️⃣
🔹As it’s Monday and no much catalyst Today, I prefer longs from the INT structure demand following the bullish structures on 15m and 4H while knowing that pullback can start at any time soon where I can shift to Intraday Bearish after confirmation (Bearish iBOS).