EURUSD
EUR/USD H1 03/12/2024 – Key Levels 1.04950 & 1.05250Consolidation Likely Before Breakout – Key Levels 1.04950 & 1.05250
Daily (D1) Chart
Key Observations:
Price is currently trading below the 200 SMA (long-term bearish trend).
The Ichimoku Cloud suggests bearish sentiment, with price under the cloud and the Tenkan-sen below the Kijun-sen.
RSI (39) indicates bearish momentum, but it's not yet oversold.
The MACD shows a weak bearish crossover, confirming a lack of bullish strength.
Price is consolidating between 1.04950 (support) and 1.05250 (resistance).
Conclusion: The D1 timeframe reflects a bearish bias unless there is a strong breakout above 1.05250.
4-Hour (H4) Chart
Key Observations:
Price has been rejected multiple times at the 1.05250 resistance, with the 200 EMA above current levels acting as a strong resistance zone.
Stochastic Oscillator (27) indicates oversold conditions, signaling potential short-term buying pressure.
RSI (48) is neutral, leaning toward bearish.
The MACD is flat, showing indecision.
ATR is low, suggesting limited volatility.
Conclusion: A break of 1.05250 would require strong bullish momentum, but failure to breach could push prices lower toward 1.04500.
1-Hour (H1) Chart
Key Observations:
Price is trading just under the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling short-term bearishness.
Stochastic Oscillator (55) suggests mild bullish pressure, but it's losing strength.
MACD is slightly positive but flattening, indicating indecision.
The 1.05250 level remains a key intraday resistance, while 1.04950 is the immediate support.
Conclusion: The H1 chart suggests consolidation with potential for a breakout. A move below 1.04950 could lead to a bearish continuation, while a break above 1.05250 might fuel short-term bullish momentum.
30-Minute (M30) Chart
Key Observations:
Price has bounced off the 1.04950 support, forming minor bullish candlesticks, but resistance at 1.05250 remains firm.
Stochastic is overbought (81), signaling limited upside potential in the short term.
MACD is flattening, confirming consolidation.
ATR is still low, hinting at range-bound movement.
Conclusion: The M30 chart aligns with a short-term consolidation outlook unless we see a decisive breakout.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
1.05250 (Short-term resistance).
1.05750 (Next upside target).
Support:
1.04950 (Immediate support).
1.04500 (Next downside target).
Strategy for trade entries
Buy Stop Setup (Bullish Scenario):
Entry Price: 1.05300 (above resistance).
Stop-Loss: 1.05100 (20 pips below entry).
Take-Profit: 1.05750 (45 pips above entry).
Sell Stop Setup (Bearish Scenario):
Entry Price: 1.04850 (below support).
Stop-Loss: 1.05050 (20 pips above entry).
Take-Profit: 1.04450 (40 pips below entry).
NZD/USD Insight: High-Probability Targets for the Week AheadAnalysis:
From the HTF Weekly Chart, NZD/USD highlights critical price action after a long-term sell-side liquidity raid at the equal lows. A recent bullish candle close above the last down candle and the swept lows suggests potential upward momentum, confirming a likely retracement or continuation higher.
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate Target:
- Buyside liquidity at 0.60364 (minimum target).
Potential Reversal Zones:
- Bearish breaker at 0.61600, reinforced by a Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 0.61077, making this
breaker a high-probability resistance zone.
Downside Potential:
- If price reacts at the bearish breaker, anticipate a move lower targeting sell-side liquidity at
0.57720, which aligns with the higher timeframe structure.
Price dynamics will heavily depend on how price reacts to intermediate levels, particularly the bearish breaker and its confluence with the FVG.
Conclusion:
- Short-term: Expect price to reach 0.60364.
- Medium-term: A reaction at 0.61600 could lead to a reversal targeting 0.57720.
- Always trade with confirmation at these key zones.
EUR/USD: Strategic Short Opportunities UnveiledThe EUR/USD pair is entering a clear bearish correction phase on the 1-hour timeframe. With selling pressure from the OB Zone and strong bearish signals from the EMA indicators, the price is expected to continue moving towards lower support levels.
Suggested Trading Strategy
Entry Points (Short Entry):
Open a short position when the price slightly retraces to the OB Zone (~1.0522-1.0538).
Alternatively, consider entering a short trade if the price breaks below the nearest support level without retracing.
Take Profit (TP):
TP1 at 1.0460.
TP2 at 1.0385.
Stop Loss (SL):
Place the stop loss above the OB Zone (~1.0540), as this is where the price may trigger an unexpected reversal.
EURUSD 1HR CHART UPDATEThe euro (EUR) has shown mixed performance recently, with potential for further pullbacks depending on evolving economic factors. Market sentiment is cautious due to persistent weaknesses in the Eurozone's manufacturing and services sectors, especially in key economies like Germany and France. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain a dovish stance, including possible rate cuts in the near term, which could limit upward momentum for the euro.
On the other hand, if U.S. Federal Reserve policies lean toward easing interest rates in 2024 due to moderating inflation, the dollar could weaken, providing some support to the euro. Analysts forecast the EUR/USD pair could reach a range of 1.15 to 1.21 by late 2024, but downside risks remain if Eurozone economic recovery falters or if the ECB signals more aggressive monetary easing.
This scenario underscores the importance of closely monitoring central bank policies and economic indicators for trading or investment decisions.
EUR/USD Under Pressure!The EUR/USD exchange rate has recently declined, dropping below the 1.0500 support level. This movement was driven by renewed demand for the US dollar and political concerns in France, where fears of a potential government collapse could hinder efforts to reduce the country's budget deficit.
On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 4.75%-5.00%, aiming to bring inflation closer to its 2% target. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a cautious tone, indicating that there is no urgent need for further cuts in the short term. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged after its last cut in October, which brought the deposit rate to 3.25%. Despite this, inflation concerns persist, with wage growth in the Eurozone accelerating to 5.42% in the third quarter.
President-elect Donald Trump’s trade policies add further uncertainty to the market. His recent demand for BRICS nations to refrain from developing or supporting new alternative currencies to the US dollar—under threat of 100% tariffs—has contributed to the dollar's strength.
This stance could fuel inflation in the United States, potentially prompting the Fed to adopt a more aggressive approach, resulting in further strengthening of the dollar and additional pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate.
Bearish drop?EUR/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap support and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0519
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 1.0600
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.0334
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 100% projection.
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Euro plummets amid tariff threats and political turmoilEUR/USD has dropped over 0.6% to $1.04607, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty in the Eurozone. In November, the euro experienced a 3% decline, its worst monthly performance in over a year, raising concerns about parity with the US dollar. Trump's recent threats to impose 100% tariffs on countries moving away from the US dollar have further pressured the euro. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank's dovish signals, including potential rate cuts of up to 50 basis points in December, add to the euro's challenges. On the other hand, the US dollar index has risen nearly 1% to 106.7, bolstered by strong economic indicators like the ISM Manufacturing PMI. As traders digest these developments, the EUR/USD may continue to face downward pressure. Share your insights on how these factors could shape the pair's trajectory in the coming weeks.
EURUSD: Inverse Head and Shoulders buy signal.EURUSD is bearish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 38.974, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 37.510) as it continues to trade near the bottom of the long term Channel Down. At the same time its low made contact with the bottom of the Bearish Megaphone. Technically that formed the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The standard target for this pattern is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That is our target (TP = 1.08630).
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XAUUSD | 15M | TECHNICAL CHARTI have prepared a OANDA:XAUUSD analysis for all of you. I have marked my target and stop-loss levels on the chart. Thanks to everyone who likes and supports my work. I work hard for you here and I will never give up on you.
We will continue to win together. All I ask is that you show your support with a like.
EURUSD Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.05400 zone, EURUSD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.05400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear friends,
EURUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.0574 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.0508
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD: Growth & Bullish Forecast
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current EURUSD chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the upward direction.
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EUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US DataEUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US Data
The EUR/USD pair strengthened by approximately 1.55% last week, driven by better-than-expected data from the eurozone and disappointing economic reports from the US. Despite this recovery, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, especially as the economic divergence between the two regions continues to weigh on market sentiment.
US Data Falls Short of Expectations
A series of weaker-than-expected US economic indicators pressured the dollar this week:
- **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2.
- **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4.
- **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M.
- **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10.
- **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast.
- **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market.
- **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing.
These data points fueled concerns about slower economic activity in the US, prompting a sell-off in the dollar and supporting EUR/USD gains.
Eurozone Data Provides Modest Support
The eurozone provided some relief for EUR/USD with slightly better-than-expected results:
- **Economic Sentiment (Nov):** Rose to 95.8, exceeding the forecast of 95.1, signaling marginal improvement in business and consumer confidence.
While the euro benefitted from these figures, the broader macroeconomic picture in the eurozone remains weak.
Comparative Economic Outlook
The US economy continues to outshine the eurozone across several key metrics:
| Metric | US | Eurozone |
|-----------------------|----------------------|---------------------|
| **GDP Growth Rate** | 2.70% | 0.90% |
| **Unemployment Rate** | 4.10% | 6.30% |
| **Inflation Rate** | 2.60% | 2.30% |
| **Interest Rate** | 4.75% | 3.40% |
| **Manufacturing PMI** | 56.00 | 45.20 |
| **Services PMI** | 57.00 | 49.20 |
While the eurozone showed some resilience this week, its lower growth rate, higher unemployment, and weaker PMIs highlight the underlying economic challenges.
Outlook for EUR/USD
Despite this week’s gains, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish in the long term. If eurozone economic data continues to underperform, the European Central Bank (ECB) may face pressure to implement faster and deeper rate cuts. Conversely, the US appears to be on a stable path toward a "soft landing," supported by strong labor markets and robust economic growth.
Conclusion
While EUR/USD benefitted from weaker US data this week, the pair's long-term direction depends on the relative strength of economic fundamentals between the eurozone and the US. The euro remains vulnerable, especially if eurozone data disappoints further and the ECB accelerates its monetary easing.
Will EUR/USD sustain its gains, or is a reversal imminent? Share your thoughts in the comments!
The EUR/USD forecast for reaching 1.11 by December 2024The EUR/USD forecast for reaching 1.11 by December 2024 might seem ambitious given current trends, but let's delve into why this could indeed happen:
Economic Recovery in the EU: Recent posts on X highlight expectations around the ECB's monetary policy. If the European Central Bank continues to adjust rates in response to economic recovery signals, a stronger Euro might follow. Discussions around inflation cooling off and potential rate adjustments suggest a more robust Eurozone economy, which traditionally supports a higher EUR/USD rate.
Political Stability and Sentiment: With the U.S. political landscape shifting due to the Democratic nomination of Kamala Harris for the 2024 election, there's a narrative shift. While not directly economic, political stability or perceived changes in policy direction can influence currency strength. If her campaign promises economic policies that might strengthen the Euro against the Dollar, this could be a psychological boost for EUR/USD.
Market Sentiment and Speculation: There's noticeable chatter on platforms like X about EUR/USD movements. Speculation can drive markets; if traders and investors start betting on a stronger Euro due to any positive economic data or geopolitical shifts, this speculative buying could push the rate towards 1.11.
Technical Analysis: Some analysts have pointed out key resistance and support levels. Breaking through these levels, especially with momentum, could set new targets. If EUR/USD manages to convincingly breach the 1.09 resistance and maintain that level, the next psychological target becomes 1.10, with 1.11 not far beyond in terms of market psychology.
Interest Rate Differentials: If the ECB's rate adjustments lead to a narrowing of the interest rate differential with the Fed, capital flow might favor the Euro more, pushing its value up against the Dollar. Given historical trends, even a small change in rate expectations could significantly impact the forex market.
Global Economic Factors: Broader economic conditions, like improvements in European trade balances, could bolster the Euro. If the EU manages to show resilience or growth in sectors previously affected by global downturns, this could reflect positively on the EUR.
Seasonal Trends and Market Calendar: There's often a lull before the end-of-year where markets might move based on year-end portfolio adjustments. If there's a sentiment that the Euro will strengthen, this could be the period where movements towards 1.11 get traction due to year-end positioning.
Euro will start to grow to resistance line of upward channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. By observing the chart, we can see that the price a few moments ago price started to decline inside the downward channel, where it at once broke the 1.0600 level and fell to the support line. Then EUR turned around and rebounded back to the resistance level and even entered to seller zone, where it reached the resistance line of the channel, after which turned around and dropped back to the support line. Soon, the price broke the 1.0465 support level and dropped to 1.0330 points, but soon it made impulse up, making a first gap, after which broke the 1.0465 support level one more time. Also, the price started to grow inside the upward channel, where it declined to the buyer zone, after which bounced and rose to the resistance line. Next, EUR almost reached the resistance level, and then turned around and in a short time declined to support line of the upward channel, making a second gap. So, now I think that the price can start to grow to the resistance level, and when it reaches this level, the price will break it. Then Euro can make a retest and continue to move up to the resistance line of the upward channel. That's why I set two TP: 1st at the 1.0600 level and 2nd at the 1.0700 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURJPY | 30M | TECHNICAL CHART |I have prepared a FX:EURJPY analysis for all of you. I have marked my target and stop-loss levels on the chart. Thanks to everyone who likes and supports my work. I work hard for you here and I will never give up on you.
We will continue to win together. All I ask is that you show your support with a like.
eurusd next move. fvgEUR/USD has taken out the monthly low liquidity. Now, we wait for the FVG to be hit. As you can see, there has already been a break of structure. The expectation is that EUR/USD will rise again toward 1.800. If you take this trade, it offers an easy 7.5 risk-to-reward (RR) ratio.
EURUSD Once in a year buy opportunity about to run out.Last week (November 25, see chart below) we gave an ultimate buy call on the EURUSD pair as the price pierced through the 1.5 year Channel Down and immediately rebounded:
As you can see, that was the absolute bottom of the pattern, its technical Lower Low, which happened last time more than 1 year ago, on October 03 2023. The 1-week rally that followed is on a pull-back today as the new week opened and based on the previous two Lower Lows, this might be the final one, i.e. the last buy opportunity we will get before multi-week rally.
More specifically and as far as the October 2023 bottom is concerned, we are on the 1W RSI rebound similar to the week of October 23 2023. At the same time, this matches being on the 1W MACD's 2nd straight pink histogram bar. This indicates that this could be the last red week before the rally.
Our Target remains intact at 1.08765, exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (similar to the November 2023 Fib test).
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EurUsd- Buy under 1.05
In last week's analysis, I mentioned that EUR/USD could reverse to the upside, with the 1.0330 zone likely marking a short-term bottom.
As anticipated, the pair has climbed back above the 1.05 support level, indicating a false breakout. I still expect this correction to extend further, with the pair potentially reaching the 1.0670 resistance level.
In conclusion, any dips below 1.05 should be seen as buying opportunities, targeting the aforementioned resistance level.
EUR/USD Under Pressure Amid Key Economic EventsThe EUR/USD pair began the week with notable selling pressure, trading near the 1.0500 level at the time of writing. The Asian session opened with a bearish gap that remains uncovered, with the pair declining by nearly 75 pips so far. Market participants are closely watching upcoming events, including a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and the release of the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) later today.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the pair’s downward momentum aligns with earlier forecasts, suggesting a potential move toward the next demand zone around 1.0100 in the coming sessions.
Commitment of Traders (COT) Analysis
Recent COT reports reveal that retail traders have increased long positions in the pair, while non-commercial entities remain bearish. This divergence highlights contrasting market expectations. A strong ISM Manufacturing PMI reading could amplify the pair’s downward trajectory, further pressuring the euro.
As the market digests these developments, traders should remain cautious and adapt strategies based on upcoming economic data and central bank commentary.
✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
EURUSD Bullish ? Monthly FVG Reversal Setup to the UpsideBreaking down the EUR/USD setup:
Sell-Side Liquidity Raided:
Price has effectively taken out the sell-side liquidity (SSL) levels at 1.060 and 1.04482, creating the conditions for a reversal.
Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG):
Price has tapped into the monthly FVG and, more importantly, closed above it, signaling a possible bullish reversal.
Higher Timeframe Bias:
The monthly FVG holds strong as a bullish PD array. With price rejecting this range, there’s potential for a move toward the weekly buy-side liquidity (BSL) at 1.09387.
Obstacles to Watch:
Price is approaching two high-probability bearish FVGs on the weekly timeframe. These zones could cause re tracements back into the higher timeframe monthly FVG range.
Monitor these areas closely for signs of price respecting or disregarding these bearish zones.
Projection:
If price continues to disrespect the bearish FVGs and maintains bullish displacement, a continuation toward 1.09387 is likely.
Keep in mind retracements into the FVG range as healthy pullbacks during the move higher.
Conclusion:
This setup highlights a high-probability reversal scenario based on ICT concepts. However, as always, patience and confirmation are key—watch how price reacts to the bearish FVGs along the way.
Disclaimer: Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and trade responsibly.
EURUSD: Europe’s smooth inflation and U.S. NFPThe most important macro indicator posted during the previous week was the PCE indicator for October, a Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Posted data show that the PCE Price Index increased by 0,2% on a monthly basis, while core PCE was up by 0,3%. Both figures were in line with market expectations. Personal Income was increased by 0,6% for the month, while Personal Spending was higher by 0,4% in October. The PCE Price Index reached 2,3% on a yearly basis.
The CB Consumer Confidence in the US in November was increased to the level of 111,7, above market expectations of 110. On the opposite side, New Home Sales decreased by -17,3% in October for the month, highly above market forecast of -3,5%. Durable Goods Orders were higher by 0,2% on a monthly basis in October, modestly below market forecast of 0,3%. US GDP Growth rate, second estimate for Q3 was corrected a bit to the level of 2.8% from 3% posted previously, but was generally in line with the market expectations.
The German Ifo business Climate dropped in November to the level of 85,7, although market expectations were on a side of 86,3. The Ifo Current Conditions also slowed down in November to the level of 84,3 from 85,7 posted for the previous month. The GfK Consumer Confidence dropped to the level of -23,3 in December in Germany, again above market forecast of -18,7. The inflation rate in Germany preliminary for November is 2,2% y/y, while inflation on the monthly basis was standing at -0,2%. Retail sales in Germany dropped by -1,% in October for the month, bringing total retail sales to 1% increase on a yearly basis. The unemployment rate in Germany was flat in November at 6,1%. Preliminary inflation estimate in the Euro Zone in November is 2,3%, which is a bit higher from 2% posted for the previous month.
Although posted figures are showing a bit of increase of inflation in the Euro Zone in November, still, it did not impact the eurusd market to start a short term reversal during the week. The currency pair started the week at 1,0425 and was mostly oriented toward the upside. The highest weekly level reached was 1,059. The RSI also started a short reversal toward the upside, reaching the level of 40. This level still does not represent a clear sign that the market is ready to start a road toward the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days made a clear cross, a so-called dead cross, with its MA200 counterpart, which is an indication of a potential for a trend change in the coming period.
The currency pair currently stands at sort of a cross-road. On one side, the level of 1,04 represents the last defense for a road toward parity. On the opposite side, eurusd showed that there is currently no strength for a clear move toward the upside. The highest weekly level of 1,059 does not represent any significant level for the currency pair, which might be an indication of a potential another move toward the 1,04 support line. The dead cross should also be taken into consideration, but for a longer time-scale. So, for the week ahead, there is higher probability for testing 1,04 support, while the move toward the upside might be an option only after NFP data, which are scheduled to be released in a week ahead.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for November in Germany and Euro Zone, Unemployment rate in the EuroZone, HCOB Services PMI final for November in Germany and the Euro Zone, Retail Sales in the Euro Zone in October, Industrial Production in Germany in October,
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI in November, ISM Services PMI in November, Fed Chair Powell speech, Non Farm Payrolls in November, Unemployment rate in November, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for December.
