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EURUSD

Analysis of EUR/USD: A Strategic Insight for TradersThe EUR/USD currency pair has extended its rally for the third consecutive day, trading near the 1.0430 level during Monday’s Asian session. This uptick is primarily driven by remarks from members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council and expectations of delayed interest rate cuts in the Eurozone. However, the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and a stronger U.S. Dollar (USD) could cap the Euro’s gains in the short term. Fundamental Factors Influencing EUR/USD European Central Bank (ECB) Robert Holzmann, a member of the ECB Governing Council, stated that further rate cuts might be delayed. He highlighted recent inflation spikes and emphasized the inflationary pressures stemming from the Trump administration’s tariff policies, which may slow economic growth but increase inflation. Delayed Rate Cut Expectations: Markets anticipate the ECB to slow down rate cuts due to rising inflation and the need for economic stabilization. U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) The Fed reduced rates by 25 basis points during the December meeting, but the dot plot indicates only two rate cuts anticipated for 2025. Fed Chair Jerome Powell: He reiterated that the central bank would approach further rate cuts cautiously. Impact on USD: The Fed's hawkish messaging has bolstered the USD, acting as a counterweight to the EUR/USD rally. Economic Policies under the Trump Administration Tariffs and Tax Cuts: The administration’s policies are expected to intensify inflationary pressures, potentially altering the Fed’s monetary policy outlook in favor of the USD. Short-to-Medium Term Outlook for EUR/USD Bullish Scenario : Signals of delayed ECB rate cuts and improved Eurozone economic data could sustain support for the Euro. Bearish Scenario : Continued hawkish Fed messaging, coupled with strong U.S. economic data, could exert downward pressure on EUR/USD.. Technical Analysis: Pivotal Levels in Play Weekly Momentum: Momentum indicators on the weekly timeframe highlight persistent selling pressure, aligning with the prior bearish analysis. Key Support Levels: The price is trading near the confluence of the lower boundary of a neutral channel and the median line of the Andrews Pitchfork, intensifying the sensitivity of this zone. Potential Breakdown: The momentum suggests a higher likelihood of breaking below this support unless weekly price action signals a reversal by surging and breaking above the 1.0534 resistance level. Conclusion and Call to Action This analysis outlines critical fundamental and technical elements shaping the EUR/USD’s trajectory. With key macroeconomic events and technical levels at play, traders should stay vigilant for decisive moves. 👉 What’s Your Move? If you find this analysis insightful, hit the Boost button and share it with your trading community. Let’s navigate these markets together—profitably!
Short
by Mohammad_Mirdehghan
EURO - Price can bounce up from support zone to $1.0430 pointsHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 A few days ago price traded inside flat, where it made a gap and then fell to $1.0470 level, after which started to grow. Then Euro exited from flat and started to decline inside pennant, where it bounced from resistance line to $1.0470 level. Price some time traded near this level and then broke it, after which fell to $1.0350 level and then started to grow. In a short time, price rose to resistance line of pennant, after which bounced from it and fell to $1.0350 level. Now, Euro traded near this level and I think that it can fall to support zone and some time trades inside. After this, price can turn around and start to grow to $1.0430 resistance line of pennant. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Long
by WalterMoon
2
NEW IDEA FOR EURUSD on declines NEW IDEA FOR EURUSD on declines The EUR/USD currency pair is in a downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe and is currently oscillating between two key support and resistance levels. Key levels: 1.0449 Resistance: This level acts as a short-term ceiling to prevent further price gains. If this level is not broken, selling pressure could reinforce the downtrend. 🚀 Trade with the professionals of THS - Wave Theory! 🔹 All trades are based on wave analysis. 🔹 Fixed stop loss and take profit for risk management. 🔹 100% automation: copy trades through CopyFX service. 🔹 Reliability and transparency: the results are confirmed by the market. 📈 Don't miss the chance to earn steadily! 👉 Connect to CopyFX with THS and start copying profitable trades right now! 💡 Details on our channel and in the app!
Short
by Trade_Hive_Signals
XAU/USD : More Fall Ahead? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after revisiting the supply zone of $2,633 to $2,652, the price faced selling pressure and corrected over 140 pips to $2,624. Currently, gold is trading around $2,626. If the price manages to hold below the $2,633 level, we can anticipate further declines. This analysis will be updated.z Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
31
Euro stabilizes as Spain posts strong job dataThe euro has stabilized on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0296, up 0.3% on the day. The euro fell as much as 1.2% a day earlier and fell below the 1.03 line for the first time since Nov. 2022. The eurozone economy wasn't exactly on fire in 2024. The Ukraine-Russia war led to increases in gas and oil prices, millions of war refugees have strained the economy and many eurozone countries have boosted their defense budget as relations with Moscow have chilled. In addition, global demand has been weak and the incoming Trump administration could spell tariffs and even a trade war. Germany, which for decades was the locomotive of Europe, hasn't recovered since the corona pandemic. Competition from China has hurt the key automotive industry and the government coalition has collapsed, resulting in political instability. France and Italy, the second and third largest economies in the eurozone, are also struggling. The bright light is this gloomy picture has been Spain, the fourth-largest economy in the eurozone. "Sunny Spain" isn't just a catchy phrase for winter-weary tourists, but also reflects a resilient economy. According to the European Commission, Spain's economy is expected to have expanded by an impressive 3% in 2024. In contrast, Germany's GDP is projected to have contrasted by -0.1%. Spain's manufacturing and services sectors are expanding, in contrast to the eurozone's three largest economies which are showing contraction. The labor market remains solid and the number of unemployed fell by 25.3 thousand in December, the lowest figure since December 2007. The European Central Bank entered an easing phase in June and has lowered rates at the past three straight meetings. The central bank is keeping an eye on inflation but is expected to continue lowering rates in order to boost the weak economy. The ECB meets next on January 30. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0289. Above, there is resistance at 1.0353 There is support at 1.0203 and 1.0139
by OANDA
EURUSD SELL | Idea Trading AnalysisEURUSD is moving on support zone The chart is above the support level, which has already become a reversal point twice. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity EURUSD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad ⚜️
Short
by TheGrove
1
EUR/USD Started 2025 at Its Lowest Point in 25 MonthsEUR/USD Started 2025 at Its Lowest Point in 25 Months According to the EUR/USD chart, on 2nd January, the first trading day of the year, the EUR/USD pair fell below the psychological level of 1.025, the lowest mark since November 2022. There are few news events, and the EUR/USD rate decline may be attributed to: → The holiday period still affecting financial markets, reducing liquidity and creating vulnerabilities for volatility spikes; → Market participants potentially rebalancing their portfolios for the new calendar year; → Reassessing the strength of the dollar amid uncertainty about the actual steps of President-elect Trump, whose inauguration is scheduled for this month. Meanwhile, technical analysis of the EUR/USD chart reveals that: → In 2024, price fluctuations formed a downward channel, with key pivot points marked by red circles. Notably, the previous holiday period led to the formation of the first of these points. → The bullish "Cup and Handle" pattern, which we discussed on 30th December, resulted in a false bullish breakout (indicated by an arrow). Seizing the bulls' failure, the bears pushed the price to the lower boundary of the mentioned channel. The area where the lower boundary of the channel intersects the psychological level of 1.025 could serve as strong support. The recovery observed on the morning of 3rd January may confirm this. The holiday period may lead to the formation of a new key pivot point on the EUR/USD chart, as has happened before. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice
by FXOpen
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 3, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD paused its four-day losing streak, trading near 1.02700 during the Asian session on Friday. European Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Thursday fell short of expectations, which only added to Euro traders' concerns following a soft speech from European Central Bank (ECB) Governor Yannis Stournaras later in the day. According to ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras, the ECB intends to smoothly cut interest rates until 2025. According to Stournaras, the ECB rate is expected to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 2% at the end of this year. As the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates much more slowly than previously expected in 2025, the EUR interest rate differential will widen significantly by the end of the year, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD in the long term. This is in line with the expectations of some analysts who are calling for the euro to reach parity with the US dollar as early as this year. Pan-European PMI results for December fell slightly to 45.1 against expectations of holding at 45.2. While the data itself had relatively little impact, it helped underscore the growing likelihood that the European Central Bank (ECB) will accelerate rate cuts to support the European economy, even as gasoline prices hit their two-year highs, further confounding Europe's economic outlook. The only significant data on Friday's economic calendar is the results of the ISM US manufacturing PMI, which is expected to remain at the declining 48.4 reading for December. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.02500, if it is fixed below consider Sell positions, if it bounces back consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Short to Support area 1.02539.Dear Colleagues, due to the recent sharp price movement, I have redrawn the waves and now I see the completion of the five-wave impulse in the wave “5” of higher order. I expect that the price should update the nearest local minimum of the wave “3” 1.03350. I expect the price to reach at least the area of 1.02539. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Short
by Hellena_Trade
11
EUR/USD Bearish Trend: Possible Reversal & Trade Opportunities👀💡 In this video, we analyze the EUR/USD currency pair, currently in a bearish trend on the 4-hour timeframe. Notably, the trend appears overextended, and as we approach the end of the trading week, there’s a potential for a low to form either for the week or the day. This could lead to a retracement on Friday and Monday, with the possibility of a move higher as the market seeks liquidity and establishes the next day’s high. Such movements could present opportunities for counter-trend trades on Friday and potential continuation trades on Monday if the trend persists. Please note, this is not financial advice. 📊✅
by fxtraderanthony
1
USD/JPY: After Testing 158.07, Ready for a Bearish Move?The analysis of the USD/JPY exchange rate reflects a complex combination of macroeconomic, monetary, and geopolitical factors influencing the pair's performance. During the Asian session on January 3, 2025, USD/JPY dropped toward 157.00, highlighting bearish pressure driven by a deterioration in risk sentiment and weak Chinese PMI data, which increased demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency. Reduced activity due to Japanese holidays amplified exchange rate movements. Nonetheless, Japan’s December manufacturing PMI showed a marginal improvement to 49.6 from November’s 49.0, although it remained in contraction territory for the sixth consecutive month. Recent dynamics have been influenced by declining U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield at 4.62% and the 2-year yield at 4.32%, temporarily weakening the U.S. dollar. However, the greenback’s resilience is supported by expectations of fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The DXY remains near 108.00, reflecting the dollar's intrinsic strength, further corroborated by solid U.S. economic data and persistently high inflation, with Tokyo's CPI rising to 3.0% year-over-year in December. In Japan, the government and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintain a cautious stance. The BoJ has emphasized that potential adjustments to monetary policy will depend on wage dynamics and inflation, which is expected to approach the 2% target in 2025. While the minutes of the latest meeting left room for gradual rate hikes, the likelihood of significant actions in the short term appears limited. This strengthens the expectation that the interest rate differential will continue to favor the dollar over the yen in the medium term. The global geopolitical and macroeconomic context also adds to uncertainty. Recent statements from Japan’s Finance Minister expressing concerns over unilateral and sharp currency market moves suggest potential FX interventions in the event of further yen depreciation. However, such interventions would likely have only a temporary impact, given that structural monetary policy dynamics remain favorable to the dollar. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming macroeconomic events, including U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (January 10, 2025), which could confirm further strengthening of the U.S. labor market, and the U.S. CPI release (January 15, 2025), which will provide insights into the Fed’s future monetary policy trajectory. The BoJ’s monetary policy meeting is another key event, as any signal of monetary normalization could trigger yen strengthening. In the short term, the pair is expected to remain near current levels, with a potential test of the 158.07 resistance. In the medium term, the trend remains bullish, supported by the interest rate differential and the strength of the U.S. economy. In the long term, however, potential economic reforms in Japan and global monetary policy normalization could reduce the dollar's appeal against the yen, pushing the exchange rate lower.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.0343, which is a pullback resistance close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 1.0250, a swing low support level. The stop loss will be at 1.0451, an overlap resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
1
EURUSD // plan for the countertrend breakThe countertrend of the primary short trend is valid, and it turns into a primary long trend only above the daily impulse base. Until it's traded below that level, the primary short trend may resume any time. 💰 The condition: significant break below the trigger zone. Since H4 is already down, the next wave south has the chance to go to the first target, that is the daily target fibo 161.8. ——— Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated. ——— Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼‍♂️ <<boost🚀 if you enjoy💚
Short
by TheMarketFlow
EUR/USD: Is Parity (1.00) in Play?Chart Analysis: The EUR/USD pair has extended its downtrend, decisively breaking below the critical support at 1.0340, which previously held as a major floor. The pair is now trading at 1.0265, hitting levels not seen in recent months. 1️⃣ Key Breakdown: The breach below 1.0340 confirms a continuation of the bearish trend, with sellers firmly in control. This level may now act as resistance on any retracement. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): Positioned at 1.0578, far above the current price, reinforcing bearish short-term momentum. 200-day SMA (red): At 1.0806, reflects the broader downtrend and significant distance from current levels. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 29.46, firmly in oversold territory, which may lead to a short-term bounce or consolidation. MACD: Deeply negative, confirming strong bearish momentum with no signs of reversal yet. What to Watch: Immediate support levels: The next downside target could be 1.0200 or even lower if bearish momentum persists. Oversold RSI: While the RSI signals a potential pause, the trend remains firmly bearish until a reversal pattern emerges. For bulls to regain control, a move back above 1.0340 and the 50-day SMA would be needed, which seems unlikely in the near term. The EUR/USD remains under heavy selling pressure after breaking key support. Watch for further declines or a potential relief bounce from oversold conditions. -MW
by FOREXcom
EURUSD Trade LogEURUSD TDV Trade Log – Swing Long Plan --- Trade Setup Overview: - Instrument: EURUSD - Entry Zone: 0.5 Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG), which aligns with the Weekly FVG. - Technical Confluences: - Both the Monthly and Weekly FVG levels exhibit bullish signals. - Weekly RSI is in oversold or "deep waters," indicating potential upward momentum. - Risk Management: - My personal risk: 4% (highly aggressive and not financial advice). - Recommended risk: Adjust to your own risk tolerance—always prioritize capital preservation. - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2 - Stop-Loss: Below the lower boundary of the FVG. - Take-Profit: Double the distance of the stop-loss. --- Macro Analysis Supporting This Swing Long: 1. US Interest Rate Dynamics: - Recent Federal Reserve projections have suggested higher-for-longer rates, leading to USD strength. - However, the shock effect of these projections appears to be diminishing, signaling potential stabilization or reversal in USD strength. - Market sentiment suggests that the economic impact of elevated rates may start weighing on the USD as growth prospects taper. 2. Eurozone Economic Factors: - Despite economic struggles, the ECB has hinted at maintaining relatively tight policy, providing a degree of support for the EUR. - Any positive surprise in Eurozone data could act as a catalyst for a EURUSD recovery. 3. Technical Alignment with Macro Themes: - The confluence of the Monthly and Weekly FVGs signals robust technical support zones. - Bullish signals from these levels align with the potential macroeconomic reversal in USD strength, creating a favorable environment for a swing long. --- Personal Notes: This trade aligns with both the technical framework of my system and macroeconomic insights. The key is discipline—if the setup invalidates (e.g., price action breaks below critical levels), do not force the trade. Always stay within your risk parameters, and remember this is not financial advice. Good luck and trade safely!
Long
by Fondera
EUR/USD Year-End Review: A Bearish Outlook for 2025As the curtain fell on 2024, the EUR/USD currency pair concluded the year under a veil of bearish pressure, aligning closely with the predictions outlined in previous analyses. On the final trading day of the year, the pair reached a significant low, hitting our predetermined take profit level at 1.03500. This movement signifies the prevailing market sentiment as we transition into 2025, with indicators suggesting that the bearish trajectory remains firmly in place. The backdrop of this price action is rooted in a risk-averse atmosphere that has characterized global markets. Investors seeking safety gravitated towards the US Dollar (USD), further dampening the EUR/USD pairing as we approached the New Year break. Such aversion to risk has historically led to a strengthening USD, which paints a challenging picture for the Euro amid ongoing economic transformations across Europe. As we move into the first week of 2025, all eyes are on the forthcoming US economic indicators, particularly the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Analysts predict that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits will climb to 222,000, a modest uptick from the previous week's 219,000. Should the actual figures exceed expectations, this could lead to a weakening of the USD in the latter part of the day, introducing an element of volatility into the market. On the other side of the Atlantic, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde provided insights into the ECB's progress in combating inflation throughout 2024. In her recent statements, she expressed optimism about hitting the inflation targets set for 2025, stating, "Hopefully, 2025 is the year when we are on target as expected and as planned in our strategy." Despite these assertions, the market reaction to her comments was tepid at best, illustrating a possible disconnect between the ECB's hopes and the stark realities facing the Eurozone. Lagarde’s emphasis on the progress achieved in 2024 indicates a deliberate and strategic approach to monetary policy; however, the actual impact on the Euro remains to be seen. The broader economic conditions in Europe, including persistent inflationary pressures and slower economic growth compared to the United States, add layers of complexity to the Euro's valuation against its American counterpart. Previous Idea with Take profit reached: ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Euro can exit from pennant and continue to fall nextHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price some time ago started to grow and soon broke resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone and continued to grow in range. Later EUR reached the top part of the range and then made a correction movement to the resistance level, after which rebounded and quickly rose back. Then price started to decline and in a short time fell to the 1.0475 level and even made a fake breakout of this level, after which backed up to the range. But soon, the price turned around and dropped to the current resistance level, thereby exiting from the range and breaking the 1.0475 level. Next, the price made an impulse up inside the downward pennant, but later it made a small correction. After this, EUR rose to the resistance line of the pennant and then turned around and dropped to the support line, breaking the 1.0350 level, which coincided with the resistance zone. A not long time ago price bounced from the support line, therefore I think that the Euro can reach the resistance zone and then continue to decline, even exiting from the pennant pattern. That's why I set my TP at 1.0240 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
2
EURUSD accelerates downward, testing 1.02 EURUSD has been weakening along the main trend recently, and the previous market analysis has been continuously confirmed. From the current pattern, after the price broke under the pressure of the triangle convergence in the downward channel, it accelerated downward for the second time, testing the 1.03 support line below. If it falls below this position, it will test 1.026 and 1.024 below. The upper resistance line of 1.034 is suppressed. If the price rebounds and breaks through this area, the euro/dollar market may form a wide consolidation at a low level in the future, and the price may return to the 1.045-1.05 area again. Overall, the euro/dollar trend is in the stage of accelerating downward in the downward channel. It is recommended to arrange short orders under the pressure of 1.034 when rebounding.
Short
by RonPeter_Trading