Brent Declines Amid Rising Inventories and Peace HopesOn February 13, 2025, Brent crude fell by 0.9% to $74.50 per barrel, driven by expectations of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, which could ease supply disruptions caused by sanctions. Additionally, U.S. crude inventories increased for the third consecutive week by 4.1 million barrels, surpassing analysts' forecasts. These factors, combined with new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, have reinforced the bearish sentiment in the oil market.
EURUSD
GBP/JPY: Persistent Bearish Pressure Amid Recovery AttemptsThe GBP/JPY pair has shown recent volatility, attempting a rebound to 188.00 on February 10, breaking a three-day losing streak after hitting the weekly low at 187.00. The Bank of England’s dovish monetary policy, including the recent rate cut, has worsened the bearish sentiment on the pound, while downward revisions in the UK's growth forecasts have further weakened the GBP. Despite recovery attempts above 190.00, economic uncertainty and the central bank's negative outlook keep the risk of further declines high. The price is near a daily FVG, with potential liquidity grabs within and around the 0.62% Fibonacci level before resuming its downward movement.
XAG/USD: Silver Uptrend with Short-Term ConsolidationAs of February 11, 2025, the XAG/USD (Silver Spot/US Dollar) exchange rate exhibits a positive medium-term trend despite a recent short-term slowdown. Currently, the price is around $32.83 per ounce at the time of writing. The first resistance level is identified at $32.24, followed by a second resistance at $32.96. The first support level is at $31.52, with an additional support at $31.21. In the short term, a weakening of the bullish trendline is observed, with the price testing the high at $32.24. Technically, a potential decline towards the $31.21 support level remains possible. Recent political decisions, such as the announcement of a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the United States, have impacted financial markets, leading to an appreciation of the US dollar and a decline in stocks. These developments could affect the precious metals market, including silver. Despite the positive medium-term trend, silver is currently undergoing a consolidation phase in the short term.
USD/JPY Approaches 152.00 Amid Yen Weakness and Trade War FearsThe USD/JPY exchange rate is recovering from recent lows, reaching 151.90 on February 10, 2025, compared to the previous close of 151.30. After a significant drop in early February, the trend shows a gradual rebound, supported by the Japanese Yen’s weakness due to disappointing macroeconomic data, particularly the sharp decline in Japan’s current account balance to 1,077.3 billion Yen from November’s 3,352.5 billion Yen. The strength of the US Dollar is also fueled by concerns over new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum announced by President Trump, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like the Greenback.
From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is nearing the psychological level of 152.00, with key resistance between 152.40 and 152.90. A breakout above this range could signal further gains, while a rejection may trigger a corrective phase. Volatility is heightened by uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s monetary policy, as it may maintain a cautious stance on rates to counter inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, speculation about a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could reduce the interest rate differential between the US and Japan.
The Dollar Index (DXY) stands at 108.20, slightly up by 0.1% but down from the intraday high of 108.50, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Traders will closely watch his statements for any hints of a policy shift.
EUR/AUD: Weekly Engulfing Bar Pullback!The recent performance of the EUR/AUD exchange rate shows a fluctuating trend, with a slight recovery, closing at approximately 1.6450 in the first week of February. In the preceding days, the rate experienced several declines, with a significant drop. These fluctuations reflect the economic dynamics of both the Eurozone and Australia. In the Eurozone, inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.5% in January, exceeding the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the third consecutive month. Despite this, the ECB plans to continue cutting interest rates, expecting inflation to reach its 2% target over the year. Meanwhile, the Eurozone economy showed no growth in the last quarter of 2024, with contractions in Germany and France and stagnation in Italy. In Australia, the leading economic indicators index increased by 0.2% in October 2024, suggesting a slight economic recovery. However, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers confirmed a worsening fiscal deficit, projected to rise by AUD 21.8 billion over the next four years, mainly due to unavoidable expenditures. These economic developments impact the EUR/AUD exchange rate, with the Euro benefiting from a more accommodative monetary policy while Australia faces fiscal challenges. Despite the recent upward movement, the negative trends from previous sessions and technical analysis suggest caution is warranted when assessing the short-term trajectory of the EUR/AUD exchange rate.
USD/JPY: Bearish Momentum and Key Support TestThe USD/JPY analysis as of February 18, 2025, shows a clear bearish structure, with the price breaking below key support levels, particularly around 152.70, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. The February 17 close at 151.456 confirms the downward trend after the recent high of 154.79 on February 12, highlighting the weakness of the US dollar against the strengthening Japanese yen. The yen’s appreciation was driven by Japan’s unexpectedly strong GDP data, which showed an annualized growth of 2.8%, far exceeding expectations and fueling speculation of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan. In contrast, the US dollar has been under pressure due to weak retail sales data and a general lack of bullish catalysts.
The chart setup highlights a key demand zone between 150.50 and 151.00, where the price is showing an initial reaction, suggesting a possible technical rebound. However, the overall structure remains weak, and unless the price can stabilize above 152.50-153.00, the risk of further downside remains high. The next significant resistance lies between 154.50 and 156.00, an area with concentrated sell orders and a potential reversal point in case of recovery. Conversely, a break below 150.50 would open the way toward 148.00 and even lower levels, with a critical support zone around 146.00.
The short-term trading range could remain between 151.00 and 155.00, with strong dependence on upcoming macroeconomic developments, particularly statements from the Bank of Japan and economic updates from the United States.
EURUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 1.0531, an overlap resistance
A rejection at this level could drive prices lower toward our take profit at 1.0456, a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
The stop loss is set at 1.0592, a swing high resistance.
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Bullish momentum to extend?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0456
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0392
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.0532
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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EURUSD: Attempting to change the trendHello dear friends, Ben here!
Currently, EURUSD is attempting to capture recovery due to the dollar's adjustment. The price is forming a reaction from the resistance channel consolidation before breaking out and growing further.
Accordingly, after breaking through the trend channel resistance level, the price has moved into a consolidation phase around the range of 1.053 to 1.021. Within this, the price is testing the resistance level of 1.038. From this, we can argue that the market is still working to change its trend and become stronger against the dollar's adjustment.
Resistance levels: 1.038, 1.053
Support levels: 1.033, 1.021
Emphasizing the resistance level of 1.038, with confirmation of consolidation above this level, there will be nothing stopping EURUSD from further growth.
Best regards, Bentradegold!
EURO STOXX 50 celebrates new ATH, due to Ukraine war abateThe European stock rally is beginning as investors have gotten optimistic about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.
The end of the 3-years conflict was always a wild card for European equity markets. Now investors are starting to prepare for this scenario, aggressively buying energy-intensive sectors and European laggards.
While a lot of upside potential remains for some sectors, the path ahead is likely to be rapid. The benchmark Euro Stoxx 50 has rarely been this overbought in the past four years.
Some investors have been aggressively buying back their shorts on Europe, while others are diversifying out of expensive and heavily concentrated US equities. The region trades at about a 40% discount to the US and this gap has the potential to narrow. There’s also room for gains within the Stoxx Europe 600 to broaden, with just 20% of its members in overbought territory.
With the prospect of an eventual ceasefire on investors’ minds after the US and Russian leaders agreed to start negotiations, stocks geared to the reconstruction of Ukraine are in focus, like construction stocks Heidelberg Materials AG and Holcim AG as well as chemicals company BASF SE.
The strategists at Barclays Plc are overweight chemicals but are more cautious on autos, partly due to the US tariffs threat. They say construction materials have had a strong run already, while mining and steel may have more catch-up potential, along with transport and leisure.
Rebuilding Ukraine would be one of the largest construction undertakings in recent years, with total costs of nearly $500 billion, according to the World Bank. This would be highly commodity-intensive, especially for steel and cement, to restore buildings and infrastructure.
It is clearly unequivocally good news for European markets.
The EURO STOXX 50 is a stock index that represents 50 of the largest and most liquid stocks in the Eurozone. It is designed to represent blue-chip companies considered leaders in their respective sectors. The EURO STOXX 50 is one of the most liquid indices for the Eurozone.
Key facts about the EURO STOXX 50:
The index includes shares from various Eurozone countries, including Belgium, France, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain.
France and Germany contribute to over 66% of the index.
The technology, industrial goods and services, and consumer products and services sectors account for more than 45% of the index.
The EURO STOXX 50 was introduced on February 26, 1998. Prices were calculated retroactively to 1986, with a base value of 1000 points on December 31, 1991.
The index captures about 60% of the free-float market capitalization of the EURO STOXX Total Market Index (TMI), which covers about 95% of the free-float market capitalization of the countries represented.
The EURO STOXX 50 serves as a benchmark for the Eurozone's stock market performance.
Eurex trades futures and options on the EURO STOXX 50, which are among the most liquid products in Europe and worldwide.
Technical challenge
The main 6-month graph for EURO STOXX 50 futures indicates the epic all time high (1st time over past 25 years), with a potential further upside price action.
EUR/USD getting close to target after tariffs rebound...The EUR/USD has rebounded nicely from two weeks prior when we gapped down pretty significantly after tariffs were announced. The original observation was bullish after identifying a bullish pattern (Descending Megaphone) alongside MACD divergence.
We're stalling at the moment around 1.0500 and I don't expect any further movement throughout the day considering it's a U.S. market holiday however, I'm continuing to hold on to my long position and eying an exit at 1.0600 which is where the yearly pivot point is located.
If we do get to see the 1.0600 price, I will be evaluating short positions somewhere in this zone. We'll see how the remainder of this week develops and go from there.
Good Luck & Trade Safe.
Latest analysis of EUR/USDAfter a period of consolidation, EUR/USD is still hovering around the key resistance level of 1.0500, which is crucial for the trend of the euro. From a technical perspective, the current exchange rate trend remains above the 50-day moving average, which is around 1.04, providing support for bulls. The 50-day moving average is usually regarded as a guide for the medium-term trend. The price can remain above it, indicating that the current market is still bullish.
In addition, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is currently approaching 60.00. If the RSI further breaks through this level and remains above this area, it may provide stronger upward momentum for EUR/USD. The breakthrough of RSI usually means a change in market sentiment. Breaking through 60.00 means that the bullish force may further increase, pushing the exchange rate upward.
In terms of support, the low of 1.0285 on February 10 will be a key support area for EUR/USD. If the price falls below this support level, it may trigger a further correction. It should be noted that the current upward momentum is still relatively limited. If the price continues to consolidate around 1.0500, a sideways pattern may form in the short term.
On the other hand, the resistance level of 1.0630 is also very important. This price range is the high point of December 6 last year. If the price breaks through this resistance level, it may mean a larger upside, especially in the upward trend after breaking through the 50-day moving average.
On the whole, the current technical side of EUR/USD shows some upside potential, but it still needs more upside momentum to break through the psychological level of 1.0500. If the RSI continues to rise and remains above 60, the possibility of breaking through the key resistance level will increase. On the contrary, if the price falls back below 1.0285, it may re-test the lower support level.
EURUSD Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on EURUSD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 1.0487 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.0390
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD: warming inflation, or not?One of the most important events during the previous week was Fed Chairs Powell testimony in front of the US Congress. Some key takeaways from this hearing was that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates and that Fed's decisions will stay independent from any political interference. As for macro data posted during the previous week, January inflation data were in the spotlight of the market. Posted figures show a bit hotter inflation of 0,5% for the month, a bit higher from market estimate of 0,3%. Inflation rate on a yearly basis reached 3%. Core inflation continues to be elevated at 0,4% in January and 3,3% on a yearly basis. The Producers Price Index reached 0,4% in January, again higher from market estimate of 0,3%, while core PPI was at the level of 0,3% and in line with market consensus. The Retail Sales dropped by -0,9% in January, much higher from market expectation of -0,1%. The Retail Sales were higher by 4,2% on a yearly basis.
The inflation rate in January in Germany was standing at -0,2% for the month and 2,3% y/y. The GDP growth rate, second estimate for Q4 in the Euro Zone was 0,1%, and a bit higher from forecasted 0%. The GDP growth rate, second estimate for the year, was standing at 0,9%.
The US inflation in January, which was hotter than the market estimate, made investors prefer euro over dollar during the previous week. The currency pair started the week at levels modestly below the 1,03 level, and was pushed for the rest of the week toward the higher grounds. The highest weekly level was reached on Friday, at 1,051. The currency pair ended the week at the level of 1,0487. The RSI also reverted its move toward the level of 60, however, there is still enough space for the higher ground until the clear overbought market side is reached. The MA50 continues to slow down its divergence from MA200, with a solid distance between two lines, in which sense, the cross is not in the store anytime soon.
The currency pair reached the resistance line at 1,05 which had been tested during the previous week. Based on current charts, the eurusd will most probably continue to test these levels at the start of the week ahead. Considering a Holiday in the US on Monday, and lack of release of currently important data for markets, which is related to inflation, it should not be expected to have some higher volatility during the week. On the upside, the 1,05 level will be tested for one more time, while on the opposite side, there is a possibility for a short reversal, but not below the 1,04 support line.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in February for both EuroZone and Germany, PPI in January for Germany, HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash in February in Germany and the Euro Zone,
USD: Due to Holiday in the US markets will be closed on Monday, Building Permits preliminary in January, Housing Starts in January, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Existing Home Sales in January, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for February.
Chart Patterns That Keep Showing Up (Are Traders Predictable?)In the grand theater of financial markets, traders often fancy themselves as rational actors, making decisions based on cold, hard data. Yet, time and again, their collective behavior etches familiar patterns onto price charts, as if choreographed by an unseen hand (the Invisible Hand?)
All across the world economy , markets trade in patterns. The trick is to spot those patterns before they unfold.
These recurring formations, known as chart patterns, are a testament to the predictability of human psychology in trading. Let's rediscover some of these enduring patterns, exploring why they persist and how you can leverage them.
🚿 The Head and Shoulders: More Than a Shampoo Brand
Imagine a market trend as a partygoer who's had one too many. Initially, they're lively (the left shoulder), then they reach peak status of euphoria (the head), but eventually, they slump with one last “let’s go party people” (the right shoulder). This sequence forms the Head and Shoulders pattern, signaling a trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
Traders spot this pattern by identifying three peaks: a central, higher peak flanked by two lower, similar-sized peaks on each side. The neckline, drawn by connecting the lows between these peaks, becomes the critical support level. A break below this line suggests the party's over, and it's time to exit or short the trading instrument.
Conversely, the Inverse Head and Shoulders indicates a reversal from bearish to bullish, resembling a person doing a headstand—a strong sign the market's ready to flip.
Ready to hunt down the charts for some Head and Shoulders? Try out the Head and Shoulders drawing tool .
⛰️ Double Tops and Bottoms: Déjà Vu in Trading
Ever experience déjà vu? The market does too, in the form of Double Tops and Bottoms. A Double Top resembles the letter "M," where the price hits a high, retreats, and then tests that high again before declining. It's the market's way of saying, "I've been here before, and I'm not going higher."
The Double Bottom, shaped like a "W," occurs when the price drops to a low, rebounds, and then retests that low before rising. It's akin to the market finding a sturdy trampoline at support levels, ready to bounce back.
These patterns reflect traders' reluctance to push prices beyond established highs or lows, leading to reversals.
⚠️ Triangles: The Market's Waiting Game
When traders are indecisive, prices often consolidate, forming Triangle patterns. These come in three flavors:
Ascending Triangle : Characterized by a flat upper resistance line and a rising lower support line. Buyers are gaining strength, repeatedly pushing prices up to a resistance level. A breakout above this resistance suggests bullish momentum.
Descending Triangle : Features a flat lower support line and a descending upper resistance line. Sellers are in control, and a break below support signals bearish continuation.
Symmetrical Triangle : Both support and resistance lines converge, indicating a standoff between buyers and sellers. The eventual breakout can go either way, and traders watch closely for directional cues.
Triangles epitomize the market's pause before a storm, as participants gather conviction for the next move.
Feel like looking for some triangles on charts? Jump straight to our easy-to-use Triangle Pattern drawing tool .
🏁 Flags and Pennants: The Market Takes a Breather
After a strong price movement, the market often needs a breather, leading to Flags and Pennants. These are short-term continuation patterns that indicate a brief consolidation before the trend resumes.
Flag : Resembles a parallelogram sloping against the prevailing trend. It's like the market catching its breath before sprinting again.
Pennant : Looks like a small symmetrical triangle that forms after a sharp move. Think of it as the market pitching a tent before continuing its journey.
Recognizing these patterns helps traders position themselves for the next leg of the trend.
🧠 The Psychology Behind Pattern Persistence
Why do these patterns keep appearing? The answer lies in human psychology. Traders, despite access to vast information, are influenced by emotions like fear and greed. This collective sentiment manifests in predictable ways, creating patterns on charts.
For instance, the Head and Shoulders pattern emerges because traders, after pushing prices to a peak, become cautious. Early sellers take profits, causing a dip. A second rally (the head) attracts more participants, but if it fails to sustain, confidence wanes, leading to a sell-off. The final attempt (right shoulder) lacks conviction, and once support breaks, the downtrend ensues.
Understanding the emotional drivers behind these patterns allows traders to anticipate moves and strategize accordingly.
🎯 Using Patterns to Your Advantage
While recognizing patterns is valuable, it's crucial to approach them with a discerning eye:
Confirmation is Key : Don't act on a pattern until it's confirmed. For example, in a Head and Shoulders, wait for a break below the neckline before taking a position.
Volume Matters : Volume often validates a pattern. A genuine breakout is usually accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating strong participation.
Contextual Awareness : Consider the broader market context. Patterns can yield false signals in volatile or news-driven environments.
Risk Management : Always set stop-loss orders to protect against unexpected moves. Patterns suggest probabilities, not certainties.
🧬 The Evolution of Patterns in Modern Markets
In today's algorithm-driven trading landscape, one might wonder if traditional chart patterns still hold relevance. Interestingly, even sophisticated trading algorithms (those used by hedge funds and investment managers) are programmed based on historical patterns and human behavior, perpetuating the cycle.
Moreover, as long as markets are driven by human participants, emotions will influence decisions, and patterns will emerge. The tools may evolve, but the underlying psychology remains constant.
🤗 Conclusion: Embrace the Predictability
In the volatile world of trading, chart patterns serve as a bridge between market psychology and price action. They offer insights into collective behavior, providing traders with a framework to anticipate movements.
By studying these recurring formations, traders can align their strategies with market sentiment, turning the predictability of human nature into a trading edge.
What’s your go-to technical analysis pattern? Are you and H&S trader or maybe you prefer to trade double tops? Share your approach in the comments!
EURUSD About to turn bearish again on Double StructureThe EURUSD pair has been on a Bullish Leg since the February 09 Low and is approaching the January 27 High, which is its technical Resistance level. Technically, every such test has been rejected down to at least the 0.786 Fibonacci level but since we might be within a Channel Up, it is possible to see one last push to complete a +2.68% rise from the February 09 Low.
The 0.786 Fib then will fall below the Channel Up so to account for that technical miss of support, our Target will be the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 1.03125.
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XAU/USD : Bull or Bear? Let's See! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the 30-minute gold chart, we can see that, as expected, gold resumed its bullish momentum, successfully hitting the $2,923 and $2,929 targets with ease, and even extending its rally to $2,940.
With this move, gold filled the Fair Value Gap (FVG) mentioned in the previous analysis and reached its bearish order block.
Currently, gold is trading around $2,927, and the next move will depend on price stability:
• If gold holds above $2,929 for the next 4 hours, we could see another bullish push.
• If gold fails to hold above this key level, we might see a pullback towards $2,923 as the first corrective target.
Stay tuned for further updates!
EURUSD - Bullish No More!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 EURUSD has been overall bullish, trading within the rising channel, however it is currently retesting the upper bound of the channel.
Moreover, the red zone is the upper bound of its weekly range.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the structure and upper red trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD approaches the red circle, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURUSD - Swing Buy on MidWeek Reversal & USD News (CPI)Reasons for this setup being higher probability:
HTF is bullish because of the doji on Monthly and momentum on Weekly chart.
We've created a protected low, confirmed by Divergence with GBPUSD.
Market created momentum higher.
We're now in a retracement phase.
Looking for the market to flip up with a reversal pattern on the LTF before entering.
Continuing in the bullish HTF idea.
EURUSD - what to expect?Here is our in-depth view and update on EURUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels .
Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at EURUSD from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame and following our original analysis posted on February 4th (check image below).
Now after we broke to the upside we are waiting to make a pullback on the pair (based on the H4 time-frame). As of now we are sitting on our hands and patiently waiting on the pullback to happen or possible reverses and join the uptrend. TVC:EXY has seen some strength last week regardless of the positive data for the TVC:DXY which gave back gains after U.S. President Donald Trump said in a social media post that he had spoken with Russian President Vladamir Putin about starting negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. This still holds positive weight on the EUR overall. Considering this, we can pre-plan some possible outcomes including both fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
Scenario 1: BUYS at the break the highs (1.05140)
- We broke above 1.05140.
With the break of this level we can expect a possible move towards the upside without even creating a deeper pullback. The technical analysis and fundamentals would be on our side.
Scenario 2: BUYS at the pullback (1.04360)
- We came down to our PBA (Pullback Area) at around 1.04360.
With the pullback completed and the price respecting this area, we could potentially see more upside on this pair from this KL (Key Level). Long-term buys at this price would be valid. Again technical and fundamentals analysis would both be on our side.
KEY NOTES
- EXY (EUR) showing strength after last week’s positive “news”.
- Breaks to the upside would confirm higher highs.
- Respecting our PBA (Pullback Area - 1.04360 would give us a buy opportunity.
- Possible resolutions between Ukraine and Russia.
Happy trading!
FxPocket