EURUSD: PCE data aheadThe Fed left rates unchanged on their FOMC meeting during the previous week, which was the major weekly event, closely watched by market participants. As for economic projections, Fed officials are now seen to have corrected GDP growth to 1.7% this year, while the inflation pressures are corrected toward the upside. Despite expectations of elevated inflation, Fed officials still see two rate cuts this year, totaling 0,5%. As for other macro news posted during the previous week, the US Retail Sales increased by 0,2% in February, which was a bit below 0,6% market consensus. Business inventories were higher by 0,3% in January on a monthly basis, in line with market expectations. The US Building Permits preliminary for February dropped by -1,2% for the month, and were not in line with expected -0,2%. At the same time, the Existing Home Sales were increased by 4,2% in February on a monthly basis, highly above market estimate. The Industrial Production in February picked up with 0,7% for the month, above forecasted 0,2%. At the same time the IP on a yearly basis reached 1,4%, below expected 2,3%.
The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in the Euro Zone reached the level of 39,8 in March in line with market expectations. The same indicator for Germany was standing at 51,6 and was above forecasted 48,1. Final inflation rate in the Euro Zone in February was standing at 0,4% for the month and 2,3% on a yearly basis, without a significant change from the previous estimate. The core inflation remained elevated at 2,6% y/y. The Producers Price Index in Germany in February dropped by -0,2% for the month, bringing this indicator to the level of 0,7% on a yearly basis.
The eurusd currency pair was traded in a relatively shorter range during the previous week. The highest weekly level was 1,095, however, the 1,10 resistance line has not been tested on this occasion. The second half of the trading week was more oriented toward the downside, where the support line at 1,08 has been shortly tested. Two weeks ago the RSI reached the clear overbought market side, from where it started a modest reversal. The lowest level of the indicator was 58, reached on Friday. The MA50 continues with this stronger convergence toward the MA200, but still with a distance between two lines. With this trend, a potential cross might come within a few weeks.
The currency pair will start the week ahead by testing the 1,08 support line. In case that this level is clearly breached, the next stop might be around the 1,07. This level is not a significant one for a eurusd pair, in which sense, this could be only a short stop. On the opposite side, there is some probability for a 1,10 resistance level, considering that it has not been clearly tested during the previous week. Certainly, one day to watch closely in a week ahead is Friday, March 28th, when PCE data is scheduled for a release. Some higher volatility is expected during the release of the PCE data.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for March in Germany, Ifo Business Climate for Germany in March, GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany in April, Unemployment rate in Germany in March,
USD: S&P Global composite PMI Flash for March, CB Consumer Confidence in March, the New Home Sales in February, Durable Goods Orders in February, GDP Growth Rate final for Q4, PCE Price Index for February is scheduled for a release on Friday, March 28th., as well as Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for March.
