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Eurusd1hr

EUR/USD slips on Catalan referendumMorning outlook - EUR/USD slips on Catalan referendum In line with expectations, the currency exchange rate managed to break to the top, crossing the 100-hour SMA plus another resistance level near 1.1810. During the two-day surge the pair even formed a little ascending channel. But due to referendum on independence in Catalonia the Euro lost 0.3% against the Dollar and fell out of the channel. The fact that now the pair is located below a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs, suggests that might continue to the move to the bottom. The downfall might be additionally spurred by the official comments from the EU, Catalan and Spanish governments through the day. However, this event is unlikely to change the general scenario, according to which the rate is expected to continue to climb to the top after bouncing off from the 100% Fibo at 1.1715.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD encounters 100% Fibo near 1.1715Morning outlook - EUR/USD encounters 100% Fibo near 1.1715 Unfortunately for the Euro, a shared border of two senior descending channels did not manage to withhold the rate from falling to the south. However, this plunge did not last for long, as the currency pair made a turnaround apparently form the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1715. Given that this barrier is additionally secured by the monthly S1 at 1.1692 and the weekly S3 at 1.1688, the further appreciation of the buck seems unlikely. On the other hand, the surge in the opposite direction is similarly obstructed by the weekly S2 at 1.1774 and the slipping 55-hour SMA. For this reason, the pair might move horizontally for some time waiting for a strong impulse, which can be provided, for instance, by release of data on the US Final GDP.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD heads upwards after Merkel winsMorning outlook - EUR/USD heads upwards after Merkel wins Although initially markets were positively anticipating the upcoming Draghi speech at Trinity College, but the subsequent reaction led to quite rapid recovery of the Dollar on Friday. To certain extent, such bearish movement could be related to anticipation of the German Parliamentary elections. However, as soon as it became clear that Merkel managed to retain her post, the Euro started restoring previously lost positions. From technical perspective, this upside momentum is likely to be neutralized by a combined resistance formed by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP at 1.1947. On the other hand, Draghi's testimony at the European Parliament might create a new short-term volatility in the markets, which could give the pair a necessary impulse to bypass those barriers. In the opposite case, the rate is likely to fall to the bottom edge of a dominant ascending channel. P.S. In result of the various fundamental events that happened during the previous week, the currency pair has formed a symmetrical triangle whose upper boundary represents a part of a junior descending channel and the lower boundary represents a part of a senior ascending channel. Accordingly, in the end of this or beginning of the next week the pair is expected to make a breakout from this pattern. This result will reveal what trend has prevailed and in which direction the currency rate would move in the nearest perspective (clearly seen on daily chart)
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD begins new week near weekly PP at 1.1938Morning outlook - EUR/USD begins new week near weekly PP at 1.1938 Due to release of negative data on the US Core Retail Sales, the Euro caught an upside momentum, which lasted until the pair met a resistance in the 1.1985-95 area. At the moment, the currency rate is located near the updated weekly PP at 1.1938, being squeezed between the 200- and 100-hour SMAs. Accordingly, an aggregate of technical indicators sends either neutral or ordinary buy signal. This fact as well as the traditional Monday's inactivity suggests that the pair is unlikely to make major advances today . However, generally, the pair is expected to make attempt to break through the above resistance towards the new weekly R1 at 1.2039. On the other side, an average market sentiment remains 65% bearish, which means that in case of a new rebound bears might try to drag the rate down to the monthly PP at 1.1881.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD fails to pass 55-hour SMAMorning outlook - EUR/USD fails to pass 55-hour SMA As it was expected, first half of the previous trading session the currency pair spent near the monthly PP at 1.1881. Unfortunately, a release of better than expected data on the US inflation did not cause any notable volatility in the markets even though initially traders tried to push the pair through the bottom trend-line of a medium-term ascending channel. A fully-fledged rebound did not happen as well, as the surge was quickly neutralized by the 55-hour SMAs. Taking into account that the northern side is secured by the 100- and 200-hour SMAs, while the southern side by the above monthly PP, the pair is expected to continue to more relatively horizontally at least until a release of information on the US Core Retail Sales.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD tries to bypass 1.20 levelMorning outlook - EUR/USD tries to bypass 1.20 level In line with expectations, a resistance created by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs prevented the further advance of the Euro against the Greenback. At the moment, this barrier is also strengthened by the weekly PP. For this reason, the pair is expected to fail to break to the top. However, a sharp decline should not happen as well, as the southern side remains reliably protected by the 200-hour SMA, which is moving along the lower support line of a long-term ascending channel. In other words, the rate is expected to stay for some time in this ascending triangle. On the other hand, an effect from release of data on the US PMI at 12:30 GMT might give a necessary impulse to bypass the above resistance a stay for some above the 1.9999 mark.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD slips to weekly PP at 1.1999Morning outlook - EUR/USD slips to weekly PP at 1.1999 On Friday, the currency exchange rate acted in accordance with one of the scenarios, which suggested that as soon as markets will calm down the buck is going to try restoring some lost positions. Indeed, after failing to jump above the monthly R1 at 1.2099 the pair switched a direction and ended the week near the combined support level set up by the 55-hour SMA and the updated weekly PP at 1.1999. It seems that the turnaround was partially attributed to clash with the upper boundary of a medium-term rising wedge, which can be clearly seen on a daily timeframe. From this larger perspective the rate is expected to continue to gradually slip to the bottom. However, in the short run these attempts most likely will be neutralized by the 100- and 200-hour SMAs.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD prepares for EU Min Bid RateMorning outlook - EUR/USD prepares for EU Min Bid Rate As it was expected, a pressure from a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs neutralized any further attempts of the currency pair to slip to the bottom. The exchange rate even managed to from a junior ascending channel and bypass the weekly PP at 1.1918, fluctuating within it. Today will be the next day for the Euro due to announcement of the EU Minimum Bid Rate and the subsequent ECB press conference. Usually, this event leads to very strong traders’ reaction on it. In this context, the pair is expected to make a substantial advance today. Given a reaction to Draghi speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium two weeks ago, the Euro should appreciate today as well. The same direction is also seen from hourly and daily chart perspectives.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD under pressure from moving averagesMorning outlook - EUR/USD under pressure from moving averages By the end of the previous trading day the currency pair had expectedly made a breakout from a short-term symmetrical triangle. The only difference from similar cases was that it did not choose a clear direction but, instead, continued to move horizontally. However, today this flat movement is expected to end, as the rate is experiencing pressure from a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hours SMAs, which are located slightly below it. Once the pair will manage to break through the weekly PP at 1.1918, it will have a barrier-free area up until the weekly R1 at 1.2013. The eventual surge is expected to happen despite that 65% of open positions are short.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD plunges to 1.18Morning outlook - EUR/USD plunges to 1.18 As it was expected, during the whole previous trading day the currency exchange rate was moving in ascending channel. At the moment, it is approaching a combined support level formed by the weekly PP at 1.1865 and the 200-hour SMA. A rebound is expected to happen even if the rate will manage to slightly overstep beyond that barrier. One of the reasons is that a little bit lower there is located a bottom boundary of a large ascending channel that guides movement of the pair. The second reason is that there will be no notable data releases today. This means that the buck will not get any additional impulse from traders, anticipating these events (as it happened during the last couple of days).
by UnknownUnicorn890690
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EUR/USD breaks above 1.2000Morning outlook - EUR/USD breaks above 1.2000 The common European currency is continuing to advance against the US Dollar, using an upside momentum that was provided by the Jackson Hole Symposium. In result of the previous trading session, the currency rate has entered into a small ascending channel, which helped the pair to surge to the 1.2000 level. The further surge was expected to be restrained either by the weekly R1, or by the monthly R1 at 1.2021. However, the exchange rate managed to bypass these combined resistance level. As a result, now it has practically no barriers on its way up until the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel. The opposite side, in contrast, is protected by the 55-hour SMA and a bunch of other technical indicators. In this sense, the further advance seems quite possible at least until the 1.2076 level. However, there is also a need to take into account an impact on the value of buck after release of information on the US CB Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, which is expected to plunge to 120.9, compared to the 121.1 last month.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD prepares for Draghi and Yellen speechesMorning outlook - EUR/USD prepares for Draghi and Yellen speeches An hourly chart reveals that the Euro is moving against the American Dollar in a short-term symmetrical triangle, as traders await both Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen speeches that will be delivered later this day at the Jackson Hole Symposium. From a technical perspective, a breakout to the northern direction seems more possible, as the currency pair experiences pressure from the 55- and 100-hour SMAs from the bottom. In addition, the upper area lacks any notable resistance barriers in the next 45-pip range. However, if the downfall happens, then in the worst case scenario it should be stopped by the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1714.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD touches channel’s boundaryMorning outlook - EUR/USD touches channel’s boundary In accordance with expectations, the common European currency continued the surge against the US Dollar in a short-term ascending channel until it met a resistance barrier formed by the upper trend-line of a senior descending channel. For this reason, the currency exchange rate is expected to move downwards. This course is supported by the overall market sentiment, which is 71% bearish. On the other hand, a summary of various technical indicators for the upcoming trading day sends a strong buy signal. However, both the situation and the forecasts can be altered after release of information on the German Economic Sentiment, which might slightly devaluate the Euro and accelerate the fall.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EURUSD testing major resistance, remain bearishSell below 1.1264. Stop loss at 1.1301. Take profit at 1.1159. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price continues to test our resistance as it shapes up nicely for a drop. We remain bearish below major resistance at 1.1264 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a further drop towards 1.1159 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 95% level.
Short
by MEX_Exchange
EURUSD dropping perfectly, remain bearishSell below 1.1264. Stop loss at 1.1301. Take profit at 1.1159. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price has reached our selling area and reversed perfectly as expected. We remain bearish below major resistance at 1.1264 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a further drop towards 1.1159 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). Stochastic (55,5,3) has reversed nicely off our 95% resistance and has good downside potential.
Short
by MEX_Exchange
EURUSD approaching major resistance, prepare to sellSell below 1.1264. Stop loss at 1.1301. Take profit at 1.1159. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price is approaching major resistance at 1.1264 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect a strong reaction off this level for a drop to 1.1159 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 95% level where we expect a huge drop from. Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally): The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing survey. It is one of the biggest market moving economic releases because of its Prices Paid and Employment subcomponents which reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions - two of the market's most significant health indicators. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. We’re expecting forecasts of an decrease which means a bearish USD is expected, this goes against our bearish EURUSD view hence it is best to exercise caution on this trade.
Short
by MEX_Exchange
EURUSD profit target reached, prepare to sellSell below 1.0948. Stop loss at 1.1002. Take profit at 1.0853. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price has bounced off our buying area perfectly and reached our profit target as expected. We prepare to sell below 1.0948 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down towards 1.0853 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 97% level where we expect a drop from. Correlation analysis: EURUSD and USDCHF are negatively correlated, meaning they usually move in opposite directions. We’re expecting a rise in USDCHF which goes in line with the drop we expect on EURUSD.
Short
by theforexarmy