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Alikze → #EURUSD | X-wave correction for the downtrendThe Euro-Dollar currency pair is moving in a descending channel, which is currently moving according to the corrective structure of a three-wave. Two current paths to continue its reform path can be imagined. An upward movement in the form of an X wave will continue its correction along the way to the previous floor. ----------------- Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Sincerely.❤️
by alikze
EURUSD H1 / POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR LIQUIDITY H1 CLOSE 📈Hello Traders! This is my idea related to EURUSD H1. I expect a small retracement until we will go to close that liquidity gap. I expect a reaction from that OB, and if confirmed, I will look for a long entry. Also, I expect the DXY very weak next week, that's why I will look for a long entry (if confirmed, I will look only for long entries). Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective. ____________________________________ Follow, like, and comment to see my content: www.tradingview.com
by GoodTradeST
EUR/USD Displays Resilience Amidst Market FluctuationsIn a turn of events, the EUR/USD pair rebounded during the latter half of Thursday's European session, recuperating from its earlier dip to 1.0780, the lowest level since December 13. Closing on a positive note, the pair currently maintains its position above the 1.0880 area as the near-term outlook suggests a bullish trend. The intriguing dynamics in play are further heightened by the imminent release of key economic indicators, notably the Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings (m/m), and the Unemployment Rate, set to unfold today. The strategic analysis points toward a potential pullback before definitively breaching the dynamic resistance of the range channel, setting the stage for a robust upward trajectory towards our target point. The US Dollar, however, found itself on shaky ground during Thursday's American session. This was attributed to declining US Treasury bond yields, spurred by lackluster employment-related data releases. Notably, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 224,000, marking the highest figure since early November. The ISM Manufacturing PMI survey further contributed to the Dollar's decline as the Employment Index dropped to 47.1 in January from 47.5 in December. As the market eagerly awaits the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, expectations are set at a forecasted rise of 180,000. During the post-meeting press conference on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential rate cuts sooner than anticipated if unexpected weakening in the labor market occurs. An NFP reading below 150,000 may reignite expectations for a rate cut in March, resulting in continued weakness for the USD against its counterparts. Conversely, a figure exceeding 200,000 could delay the policy pivot to May, potentially triggering a rebound for the USD in the American session. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut in March currently stands at 37.5%, while it reaches 60% for May, reflecting the market's anticipation of potential shifts in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Our Preference: Following the previous analysis, we have adjusted the stop loss to 1.07200. We anticipate a pullback to around 1.08500 or above, with the expectation of further upward movement.
Long
by FOREXN1
2
Stuck in Limbo: A Leap to 1.15 or a Slide to 1.05 on the Cards? The EURUSD has been stuck in a range between 1.05 and 1.10 for around a year now. We're left wondering: could we see a breakout towards 1.15, or will it drop back to the bottom of the range at 1.05? What happens as the price dips below 1.08 could be crucial. Take a peek at the daily chart below. It shows us inching back down to an untested weekly BUY/DEMAND zone. This is where we last saw the price climb above 1.11 before it sharply dropped back within the 1.10 range. As the price makes its way back to this BUY/DEMAND zone, the selling momentum isn't all that fierce. Each time the price dips, buyers are quick to jump in. This might be hinting that big players are quietly building buy positions, possibly to break past 1.10 and head up to the 1.15 Monthly SUPPLY/SELL zone. Or they could just be waiting for this weeks news events?? My plan is to wait for the price to fall into the buy zone below 1.08, then look for a BUY signal on my TRFX indicator on timeframes above 6 hours. The first target for this position is the 1.10 area. I'll be keeping an eye on the momentum as we near 1.10. If it's strong, it might indicate buyers are targeting a move above the 1.11 high. However, if there's a clear break and close under 1.07, this idea won't hold, and the price will likely move back down to the bottom of the range at 1.05, which could also present buying opportunities. With the FOMC and NFP events coming up, these could be the catalysts for these moves. That's my view on it – hope you found it useful.
Long
by TheFxAce
7
EUR/USD:A Resilient Recovery Amidst Economic Data and Market...EUR/USD:A Resilient Recovery Amidst Economic Data and Market Sentiment Shifts The EUR/USD pair demonstrated a commendable recovery, reclaiming lost ground on Monday as an improved market sentiment put pressure on the US Dollar. This resurgence was marked by a significant rejection at the 1.08000 level, coinciding with the 78.6% and 88.60% Fibonacci levels, signaling a potential shift in the prevailing bearish trend. The Stochastic RSI on the H4 timeframe contributed to this optimistic outlook by displaying a divergence. Despite mixed European data, with Germany reporting a contraction in Q4 GDP, the overall Eurozone GDP surprised on the upside, posting a 0.1% increase from the previous year. Additionally, the Economic Sentiment Indicator for January met expectations at 96.2, while Consumer Confidence contracted to -16.1 during the same month. Attention in the market is now turning towards key US data releases, with January's Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings report taking center stage. These figures are particularly relevant in the lead-up to the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for the following Friday. Concurrently, market participants eagerly await the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision slated for Wednesday. As the EUR/USD pair appears to find a new bullish impulse within the confines of a bearish channel, traders are anticipating an increase in value. The short-term target for this potential bullish movement is set at 1.1000 in the coming days, pending the outcome of critical economic data releases and the Fed's policy decision. Our Idea: Long positions above 1.06700 with entry at 1.08000 and targets at 1.1000 & 1.1150 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Faces Pressure Amidst ECB Remarks and FOMC AnticipationEUR/USD Faces Pressure Amidst ECB Remarks and FOMC Anticipation EUR/USD experienced a decline on the last Monday of the month, closing near the psychological level of 1.08000. The downward pressure was influenced by remarks from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the looming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The breach of the dynamic trendline and a dip below the 61.8% Fibonacci level placed the price just beneath the 78.6%, within the range and approaching the 88.6%. Technical Indicators: Stochastic indicators signal oversold conditions, accompanied by a slight divergence. The potential policy shift hinted by the ECB has prompted a decline in the Euro, with market focus now shifting to the upcoming Fed decision. The recent strong economic growth and inflation in the US present a challenging decision for Powell and the Federal Reserve. Market Dynamics: Buyers are striving to maintain the exchange rate above the 1.0800 level in anticipation of Wednesday's FOMC decision. Despite a drop in US Treasury yields, USD bulls are not finding the push they need, resulting in the EUR/USD trading at 1.0809, down 0.39%. Outlook: The focus remains on buying opportunities for EUR/USD at a discounted exchange rate, anticipating a potential increase in value. Traders are advised to stay vigilant for market developments and the outcome of the FOMC decision, as it could significantly impact the direction of the currency pair. Our preference Long positions above 1.06700 with entry at 1.08000 and targets at 1.1000 & 1.1150 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
2
EURUSD|Weekly road map and important areasHello friends, I hope you are doing well. Continuing the previous analysis of EURUSD, so far as we expected, it weakened and managed to break the 4-hour support area downwards. ​ The next demand area is around (1.078-1.08) , the areas that we can consider to enter selling positions, the first was the support area that was broken, now it is preventing the price from rising as resistance. The next supply area is the range (1.093-1.095) , and when the price reaches these areas, you can enter selling positions by getting confirmation. In the future, if I identify a situation, I will let you know in the updates. My target for the EURUSD price is the support level of 1.078
Long
by Golden_Star1994
1
EURUSD Longs from 1.08300 or 1.08000 back upThis week's bias for this pair aligns with GU, and I'll be aiming to initiate long positions from the demand levels positioned just beneath the current price. Whether it's from the nearby 2-hour demand zone or the 10-hour demand zone situated below, my objective is to buy back up to a supply level or potentially target the equal highs positioned above. Ideally, I'm hoping for price to form a Wyckoff accumulation within my designated demand zones and provide a strong confirmation signal. If this doesn't happen, I'll wait for that zone to be breached, anticipating the spring to occur within the more favorable 10-hour demand zone. Confluences for EURUSD are as follows: - Price has been temporarily bullish to the upside and the 10hr demand zone caused BOS. - I will be anticipating a Wyckoff accumulation to start formulating within my demand region. - A pullback has been initiated from the reaction of the 6-hour supply zone. - Lots of liquidity to the upside in the form of Asian highs and equal highs. - Dollar (DXY) is looking to be bearish so I'm expecting this to be bullish. P.S. While I maintain a bullish stance on this pair, I wouldn't be caught off guard if the reaction from the 6-hour supply zone triggers further downward movement, potentially breaking the structure to the downside. In such a scenario, I'll be more inclined to explore selling opportunities. LAST WEEK OF JANUARY LETS HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK!
Long
by Hassan_fx
3
edges up as US inflation print fuels Fed rate cut speculation 26 January 2024, 17:04 •EUR/USD rises in North American trading, buoyed by softer US core PCE inflation data. •Fed's core PCE index fall to 2.9% raises hopes for interest rate cut, aiding EUR/USD's climb. •Mixed European signals: German consumer confidence falls, Spanish unemployment at 16-year low, ahead of Fed decision. The EUR/USD gained some 0.14% in early trading during the North American session as prices in the United States (US) remained above the US Federal Reserve’s goal but eased compared to November’s figures. The major trades at 1.0866 after diving to a low of 1.0812. The Euro got a life-line of a softer US PCE report The Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), rose 2.6% in the 12 months to December, as expected on an annual basis, while core PCE dipped from 3.2% to 2.9% and below forecasts. After the data, the EUR/USD climbed sharply and clocked a daily high of 1.0885 before retreating toward current exchange rates, as the data reaffirmed investors' speculations that the Fed could begin cutting rates by the summer. The CME FedWatch Tool depicts the odds for a quarter of a percentage rate cut by the Fed at 51.4%, while 50 basis points stand at 37.8%. Nevertheless, US Treasury bond yields reversed its course, climbing higher and putting a lid on the EUR/USD rise. Meanwhile, data across the pond showed that German consumers remain pessimistic amidst economic uncertainty after the GfK Consumer Confidence for February plunged from .25.4 in January to -29.7. In Spain, the Unemployment Rate fell to levels last seen in 2007, from 11.84% to 11.76% in the last quarter of 2023, according to an INE report. Ahead of the next week, the main spotlight would be the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on January 30-31. EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook Following the US data release, the EUR/USD advanced towards 1.0900 but failed to break yesterday’s high, which could pave the way for a pullback to the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 1.0843. Downside risks are seen at today’s low 1.0812, followed by the 1.0800 figure. Conversely, if buyers lift the spot prices above 1.0900, as they eye the 50-DMA at 1.0920.
Long
by sniper_2022
1
EUR/USD Finds Solid Support at 1.08500 Amidst Tepid Data.EUR/USD Finds Solid Support at 1.08500 Amidst Tepid Data, Eyes on Maintrend Continuation In a noteworthy turn of events, the EUR/USD has staged a rebound, establishing a robust support zone at 1.08500. This critical level is reinforced by the confluence with the Dynamic trendline, acting as dynamic support, and the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone. Additionally, a Bullish Divergence in the RSI and a favorable reaction at the 200-day Moving Average signal potential upward momentum. Euro Resilience Despite Local Data: Interestingly, the Euro has demonstrated resilience despite tepid local data. The preliminary Producer Manager Index (PMI) survey conducted by the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) indicates that business activity in the euro area contracted at the slowest rate in January, marking a six-month low. However, the official report highlights persistent downturns in both manufacturing and service sectors, coupled with further declines in new business. German PMI Figures: Breaking down the data, Germany's Manufacturing PMI recorded 45.4, while the services index posted at 47.6. For the Eurozone, the Services PMI came in at 48.4, a slight decrease from the previous 48.8. On a positive note, the manufacturing index showed improvement, rising to 46.6 from 44.4 in December. Upcoming US Preliminary PMIs: Later in the day, S&P Global is set to release the January preliminary PMIs for the United States (US). Market expectations lean towards manufacturing output maintaining its position in expansionary territory. This event could introduce further dynamics to the EUR/USD pair, given the interconnectedness of global markets. Technical Outlook and Maintrend Continuation: From a technical perspective, the confluence of support factors at 1.08500, along with the positive indications from the RSI and the 200-day Moving Average, strengthens the case for a continuation of the current tendency. Traders will be closely monitoring how the pair navigates through these levels and whether the rebound can be sustained. Conclusion: The EUR/USD's resilience at the crucial support level of 1.08500, despite mixed local data, underscores the significance of technical factors in guiding market movements. As the pair eyes a continuation of the maintrend, upcoming US PMI data could play a pivotal role in shaping short-term market dynamics. Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies in response to evolving technical and fundamental factors in the forex landscape. Our preference Long positions above 1.07700 with targets at 1.1000 & 1.1150 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
4
EUR/USD Struggles for Direction Amid ECB Rate Cut UncertaintyEUR/USD Struggles for Direction Amid ECB Rate Cut Uncertainty The EUR/USD pair finds itself in a tight trading range below the 1.0900 and 1.08500 levels during the European session on Wednesday. Traders appear cautious, refraining from making aggressive directional moves as uncertainty looms over the potential timing of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB Rate Cut Speculations: The first ECB policy rate cut is anticipated in April, with markets pricing in a total reduction of 135 basis points (bps) by the end of 2024. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde's recent signal that borrowing costs may only start decreasing in the summer, contingent on supportive economic data, has left traders in a wait-and-see mode. The focus now shifts to the upcoming ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday, seen as a pivotal event that could significantly impact the EUR/USD pair. Event and Data Risks: This week brings forth critical event and data risks, with preliminary estimates of the January Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMIs) set for release on Wednesday. These indicators will provide insights into the economic activity within the Eurozone and potentially influence the market sentiment. However, the real highlight of the week remains the ECB meeting on Thursday, where market participants anticipate clarity on the central bank's stance regarding interest rates and monetary policy. OCBC Bank's Analysis: Economists at OCBC Bank are closely analyzing the outlook for the EUR/USD pair. They suggest that an improvement in the PMI print could act as a catalyst, giving the Euro a renewed boost. Positive economic data may sway sentiment in favor of the Euro, offering traders additional insights as they position themselves in the market. Technical Perspective: From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD maintains a bullish bias in higher timeframes. The current retracement, hovering around the 1.08500 area and in confluence with the Dynamic trendline, the 61.8%, and 78.6% Fibonacci zones, presents an interesting zone for potential buyers looking for discounted prices. This area could serve as a launching pad for a new bullish impulse, with the target set around the 1.1000 level. Conclusion: The EUR/USD pair faces a challenging environment as traders navigate uncertainty surrounding potential ECB rate cuts. With the focus on the ECB meeting and key economic indicators, market participants are adopting a cautious approach. The technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook, with the retracement presenting an opportunity for buyers to enter at a discount. However, the true catalyst for a sustained move may come from the ECB meeting and positive PMI prints, providing clarity and direction for the EUR/USD pair in the coming sessions. Traders are advised to stay vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly in response to unfolding events and data releases. Our preference Long positions above 1.07700 with targets at 1.1000 & 1.1150 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD: A Comprehensive Outlook Amidst Market UncertaintiesEUR/USD: A Comprehensive Outlook Amidst Market Uncertainties The EUR/USD pair rebounds from its recent lows, finding support near 1.0850 in tandem with the Dynamic trendline. Meanwhile, a backdrop of hawkish sentiments from Fed officials, coupled with robust US Retail Sales data, bolsters the USD's resilience, signaling a still-healthy economy. The Greenback's safe-haven appeal gains traction amid a weaker risk tone driven by concerns over China's economic recovery and geopolitical tensions. However, bullish sentiments around the Euro face challenges as ECB policymakers express mixed views on inflation and interest rates. ECB President Christine Lagarde refrains from countering expectations of rate cuts but urges caution amid rising Eurozone inflation. Technical Analysis: From a technical standpoint, our initial analysis regarding a long setup remains intact. In comparison to the previous day, the EUR/USD has shown an increase in value. Notably, the nightly pullback around the 1.0850 area aligns precisely with the 200 Moving Average on the Daily timeframe. The current price action involves a retest of the previous resistance at 1.08877 within the accumulation zone. While a bearish retest is considered a secondary option, the prevailing scenario leans towards a bullish impulse, aligning with the overarching uptrend. Our preference Long positions above 1.07700 with targets at 1.10170 & 1.1140 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
"EUR/USD Approaches Sub-1.0900 Levels, Facing Downside Pressure"The EUR/USD pair has experienced a deeper decline, touching its lowest point in 2024 at 1.0861 (as of January 16). It is now approaching a critical level, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0847. If this support is breached, the December 2023 low of 1.0723 (on December 8) may reappear, preceding the weekly low of 1.0495 (on October 13, 2023), followed by the October 2023 low of 1.0448 (on October 3) and the psychological level of 1.0400. Positive prospects for this currency pair are likely to face challenges below the 200-day SMA. The 4-hour chart currently indicates a further downside trend in the very near term. Breaking below 1.0861 would eliminate significant support until the 1.0723 level. The MACD indicator is also trading in negative territory, and this bearish scenario is reinforced by the RSI index hovering around the 28 level, signaling oversold conditions. In the event of occasional upward attempts, immediate resistance is anticipated at the 200-SMA at 1,0925, followed by 1,0998, seemingly strengthened by the proximity of the 100-SMA around 1.0980. Investors and traders will closely monitor these levels for potential shifts in the EUR/USD pair's short-term trajectory.
by AdmamTrade