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EUR/USD: A Delicate Balance of Technical Patterns and Market..EUR/USD Embarks on 2024: A Delicate Balance of Technical Patterns and Market Sentiments As the European session opens its doors to 2024, EUR/USD treads cautiously, marking modest declines below 1.1008. The immediate technical outlook suggests a potential extension of the ongoing correction, while market participants exercise caution, refraining from substantial commitments in anticipation of pivotal macroeconomic data releases scheduled later in the week. December Triumphs and Dollar Dynamics: EUR/USD showcased resilience throughout December, securing gains of over 1% and achieving a second consecutive month of positive momentum. This upward surge was fueled by a weakening appetite for the US Dollar (USD) as investors speculated about an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, possibly in March. In contrast, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers stood firm on their non-committal stance regarding any policy pivot, underscoring the premature nature of such considerations. Technical Insights and Bullish Channel: From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to navigate within a bullish channel. Presently positioned within the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci area, the currency pair presents an intriguing opportunity for a potential pullback. Analysts eye a continuation of the bullish trend, envisioning a swing setup unfolding in the upcoming sessions. Anticipated Data Releases and Market Focus: In the unfolding day, market attention gravitates towards S&P Global's imminent release of revised December Manufacturing PMI figures for Germany, the Euro area, and the US. These anticipated data points hold the promise of offering crucial insights into the economic performance of key regions, shaping market sentiments in the process. Our preference Long positions above 1.09290 with targets at 1.1150 & 1.1200 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD is likely to increase when it bottoms againEUR/USD just hit a high, breaking through the 1.1020 and 1.1101 hurdles to reach 1.1121—a five-month high and up 0.72%. But it's the holiday season and the low trading climate can make things unpredictable. It's likely we will see a temporary spike in rates and then a drop below 1.10 as things return to normal. If you're thinking of selling, keep a close eye on any signs of change. Our next challenge? Resistance level 1.125—notice how the market behaves around that level. Once things stabilize and normal trading begins, we will get a clearer picture. We may be correcting back to the broken resistance level and we may have an opportunity to buy EURUSD at a discount targeting the resistance zone.
Long
by carefulLion07pab
EUR/USD Nears 1.1050 Closure for 2023Technical Outlook: The EUR/USD rate lingers around 1.1050, swinging between the 50-hour and 200-hour SMAs as 2023 draws to a close. Post-holiday trading will transition into an extended break after the New Year, with EUR/USD finding technical support from the 200-hour SMA just above 1.1000. Daily candlesticks reflect an overbought scenario as the Euro retreats from Thursday's multi-month high near 1.1150. The 50-day SMA converges toward the 200-day SMA around 1.0850. Technical indicators, including the 14-day RSI, hint at a potential pullback from overbought conditions. The restrained movement of EUR/USD near 1.1050 signals cautious market sentiments, with indicators suggesting a possible retreat despite recent highs. This shift may influence early market trends in the new year. Wishing everyone a Happy New Year !
by Larissa-Trader
EUR/USD Faces Headwinds Amid Economic Data,Bulls Remain in...EUR/USD Faces Headwinds Amid Economic Data, Yet Bulls Remain in Control On Thursday, the EUR/USD encountered headwinds, struggling to maintain levels above 1.1050 as of the current writing. The pushback comes in the wake of economic data releases that failed to provide a significant boost to the euro against the US dollar. US Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales: The US weekly Jobless Claims report revealed a larger-than-expected increase in Initial Jobless Claims, reaching 218,000—the highest level in three weeks. Continuing Claims also climbed, reaching 1.875 million. Additionally, Pending Home Sales remained stagnant in November, falling short of expectations for a 1% increase. Despite these figures, the data did not exert a substantial impact on the US Dollar or alter monetary policy expectations. Upcoming Data and Bullish Outlook: Looking ahead, the market's attention turns to Friday's release of the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), expected to decline to 51 in December from 55.8 in November. Despite the recent headwinds, the EUR/USD remains in the grasp of a bullish rally. Analysts foresee a potential pullback in the near term, particularly around the 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. This scenario could pave the way for a swing impulse, providing an opportunity for the currency pair to gather momentum for its next upward move. Anticipating a Pullback: With an eye on the technicals, market observers are looking for a pullback within the 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci level, anticipating a strategic entry point for a potential swing in favor of the prevailing bullish trend. Conclusion: While economic data and current market conditions pose challenges for the EUR/USD, the overall bullish sentiment persists. Investors and traders are on the lookout for a pullback within the identified Fibonacci area, considering it a potential opportunity for the currency pair to regather strength and resume its upward trajectory. The unfolding dynamics in the coming days will undoubtedly shape the course of the EUR/USD, offering insights into the resilience of the ongoing bullish rally. Our preference Long positions above 1.0950 with targets at 1.1150 & 1.1200 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
"EUR/USD Dips Below 1.1100 Amid Year-End Volatility"EUR/USD faced challenging retracements on Thursday as thin holiday trading stirred volatility around the final trading day of 2023. The Euro (EUR) swiftly climbed to a 21-week high of 1.1140 early on Thursday as broader markets continued to shed the US Dollar (USD) on expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. However, market over-expectations regarding the Fed's structural pivot played out well before today, and the uptick in the 7-year US Treasury yields triggered a retreat to the safe-haven USD, pushing riskier assets like the Euro back into the red on the last trading day of 2023. Initial US unemployment claims for the week ending December 22 also rose, indicating 218 thousand new claims compared to the previous week's adjusted 206 thousand. Additionally, pending home sales in the US for November fell short of market expectations, holding at 0.0% and missing the market forecast of a 1.0% recovery from October's adjusted -1.5% decline. As the year concludes, the EUR/USD forex pair grapples with market dynamics influenced by shifting expectations, economic data, and ongoing global uncertainties. Traders are closely monitoring these factors as they navigate the currency markets in anticipation of the new year.
by Larissa-Trader
EUR/USD Eyes 1.1200: Technical Momentum Fueled by Dovish Fed ExpEUR/USD Eyes 1.1200: Technical Momentum Fueled by Dovish Fed Expectations In a striking ascent, the EUR/USD pair is surging towards the major resistance at the 1.1150 level, signaling a bullish momentum that aims to breach the psychological threshold of 1.1200. The Euro (EUR) maintains its winning streak, gaining ground against the subdued US Dollar (USD). This favorable trend is largely attributed to the anticipated dovish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) concerning the future trajectory of interest rates. Dovish Fed Expectations: Building on our previous analysis, the EUR's upward trajectory appears to be continuing, supported by a combination of factors. The market sentiment is influenced by the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may adopt a dovish stance on interest rates in the coming year. With US yields trending lower and market participants anticipating rate cuts, the US Dollar faces headwinds. Concurrently, equity prices remain near recent highs, contributing to the sustained pressure on the US Dollar, particularly in the context of holiday-thinned trading. Upcoming Data and Holiday Impact: Amid the holiday season, Wednesday saw no significant reports, setting the stage for Thursday's focus on the US weekly Jobless Claims. Additionally, attention will be directed towards Spain's preliminary inflation figures for December, set to be released on Friday. Looking Ahead: As the year 2023 draws to a close, the calm waters in the market continue to weigh on the US Dollar, offering further support to the EUR/USD pair's upward momentum. However, as markets transition back to normal functioning in the upcoming week, the focus will shift to crucial US employment data. The outcome of these economic indicators could potentially shape the currency landscape as the new year unfolds. The EUR/USD pair's bullish trajectory towards 1.1200 is a testament to the prevailing market sentiment, driven by expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve. As the year concludes, the subdued US Dollar faces challenges, with the EUR maintaining its winning streak. Traders and investors will closely monitor upcoming economic data and the return to normal market conditions in the new year, as they seek to navigate the evolving dynamics of the currency markets. Our preference Long positions above 1.09500 with targets at 1.1150 & 1.1200 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1100, Eyes US Employment Data EUR/USD extends its upward momentum beyond the psychological level of 1.1100 during the Asian session on Thursday. The US dollar's overall weakness provides some support for the major currency pair, despite the rebound in US Treasury bond yields. Attention is now focused on mid-range US employment data. EUR/USD has confirmed the breakthrough above 1.1000 and quickly reached the 1.1100 mark. The pair peaked at 1.1122 before retracing modestly. The upward trend persists, although technical indicators are overbought across most timeframes. The trend remains strong and resilient, though some consolidation seems likely. On the 4-hour chart, the trend is bullish. However, technical signals suggest some accumulation may occur ahead of the Asian trading session, potentially ranging between 1.1110 and 1.1080. The 1.1050 region has become a relevant support area, followed by the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1030. Below 1.0980, the short-term trend may turn neutral. Corrections could be viewed as buying opportunities, keeping downsides limited.
by Larissa-Trader
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1100 Despite Overbought SignalsEUR/USD extended its rise above 1.1100 in the Asian session on Thursday, supported by a weaker US dollar. Despite overbought technical indicators, the pair confirmed the breakthrough above 1.1000. The upward trend remains strong, with potential consolidation between 1.1110 and 1.1080. Key support lies at 1.1050, followed by the 20-period SMA at 1.1030. Corrections may present buying opportunities, with downside risks limited below 1.0980.
by AdmamTrade
EUR/USD Analysis: Post-Christmas InsightsOur technical outlook for EUR/USD remains unchanged as we await shifts in performance, likely to occur with the return of investors and market activity post the holiday season. Currently, examining the daily chart, there's a discernible upward trend in the pair's performance, holding steady around and above the psychological resistance level of 1.1000. If the weakness in the US dollar persists, the currency pair may find opportunities for further recovery. From a technical standpoint, the immediate resistance levels are at 1.1065 and 1.1120. Beyond these levels, technical indicators may start leaning towards overbought conditions. Conversely, within the same timeframe, a retracement to the support level of 1.0880 is crucial for the bearish camp to regain control and disrupt the current upward momentum. Stay tuned for market developments as we navigate the dynamics in the post-holiday trading environment.
by Larissa-Trader
AUD Falls from Yearly Highs Amidst US Core PCE Data ReleaseThe Australian Dollar experienced a notable surge as the US Dollar dipped close to its monthly lows. The Reserve Bank of Australia will assess additional data to shape future monetary policy decisions. Softened data from the US reinforces expectations of the Fed easing monetary policy in early 2024, with Q3 annual GDP and QoQ core PCE dropping by 4.9% and 2.0%, respectively. The Australian Dollar is currently trading below the psychological resistance level at 0.6800, having peaked at 0.6802 on Friday. Widely shared bullish sentiment suggests the potential for the AUD/USD pair to surpass recent highs and target a significant resistance level at 0.6850. On the flip side, key support levels are identified at 0.6750, ahead of the seven-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6740. A breach below this crucial support zone may guide the AUD/USD pair towards the psychological support at 0.6700, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6679.
by Larissa-Trader
1
Positive Outlook for EUR/USD in the Coming YearThe swifter interest rate cuts in the United States compared to elsewhere signal a more pronounced weakening of the dollar. The U.S. interest rate reductions are also expected to bolster the global economy, commodity and energy prices, as well as risk sentiment. Consequently, risk-sensitive currencies like NOK and SEK are anticipated to perform well in the near future. However, there are numerous uncertainties on the horizon, including underlying government debt issues, the U.S. Presidential election, and geopolitical challenges. Many of these factors could potentially strengthen the USD beyond our initial predictions.
by AdmamTrade
2
EUR/USD Rises Above 1.1000 Amid Dollar Weakness and ECB SupportThe EUR/USD pair shows modest gains, reaching its highest level in four months during the early hours of Asian trading on Friday. The weakened U.S. dollar and the European Central Bank's hawkish stance have bolstered this currency pair. Trading around 1.1008, the main currency pair has increased by 0.05% for the day. The EUR/USD rate is poised to close at its highest daily level since early August on Thursday but still remains below the psychological 1.1000 level. From a technical perspective, breaking above 1.1000 could open the door for further upward movement. However, considering current market conditions, the timing for a breakout may not be ideal for Euro bulls. Technical indicators on the daily chart lean towards an upward bias, indicating a potential breakout. The Euro's prospects will weaken with a daily close below 1.0870. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators do not align with the daily chart's upward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sideways and poised to turn downward, momentum is weak, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) does not provide clear signals. However, the price remains above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). As long as it stays above 1.0950, the odds favor the 1.1000 breakout. A dip below that level would weaken the Euro in the short term, indicating the next support level at 1.0910. EUR/USD rose on Thursday towards the 1.1000 level, driven by the dollar's recent weakness, despite higher bond yields. Contradictory economic data from the U.S. precedes crucial consumer inflation data scheduled for Friday. U.S. data reveals a decline in the Philly Fed Index, a revised Q3 GDP decrease from 5.2% to 4.9%, and Initial Jobless Claims showing little change from the previous week. On Friday, the preferred inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Index, is due, with an expected 0.2% increase for November. Market participants will closely scrutinize U.S. inflation figures, which could impact the U.S. dollar, currently under pressure despite a rebound in U.S. yields. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose from recent lows to 3.90%. EUR/USD continues to benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar, but the upward momentum seems restricted in thin market conditions.
by Larissa-Trader
2
EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1000 Amidst US GDP Data and..EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1000 Amidst US GDP Data and Upcoming Core PCE Report The EUR/USD pair maintains its positive stance, firmly holding ground above the psychological mark of 1.1000 as it reaches its highest level in four months during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The pair's trajectory aligns with our previous forecast, where the price successfully reached the initial take profit at 1.10100. Key Market Movements: EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1008, marking a modest 0.05% gain for the day. The pair continues to follow a bullish uptrend, supported by positive momentum and favorable technical signals. US GDP Growth Data: The US GDP growth number for Q3 expanded by 4.9%, slightly below the market's estimation of 5.2%. This data influenced the market dynamics but did not deter the EUR/USD's upward trajectory. Upcoming Focus on US Core PCE Report: Investors are eagerly anticipating the release of November’s US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (Core PCE) on Friday. Projections suggest a 0.2% month-on-month (MoM) rise and a 3.3% year-on-year (YoY) increase. This data is expected to impact the pair's movements as traders assess the inflationary landscape. ECB Statements and Market Sentiment: European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasized that it is premature for monetary policy to ease, expressing confidence in avoiding a technical recession in the Eurozone. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks indicated that the central bank intends to maintain current interest rates for an extended period, potentially pushing back the expected rate cut to mid-2024. Technical Outlook and Targets: The EUR/USD pair's bullish trend is evident in higher timeframes, presenting potential for a further uptrend. Our second take profit target remains at 1.11500, providing an optimistic outlook for continued bullish momentum. As the EUR/USD pair navigates key economic data releases and central bank statements, traders are advised to monitor developments closely, considering potential shifts in market sentiment and the impact on the pair's trajectory. Our preference Long positions above 1.08600 with targets at 1.10650 & 1.1150 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1