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EUR/USD Slips Below 1.0950 Ahead of EU/US Inflation DataEUR/USD is sliding below 1.0950, facing fresh selling pressure as the US Dollar strengthens on Thursday. Weaker-than-expected inflation data from France, Germany, and Spain is weighing on the Euro. All eyes are now on the inflation figures for the Eurozone and the US for new market catalysts. The EUR/USD exchange rate retreats after four consecutive days of gains, pulling back from a three-month high above 1.1000. Despite the retreat, the overall trend still leans towards an upward trajectory. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently above 70 and poised to decline suggests potential consolidation ahead. Closing above 1.1010 on the daily chart opens up profit-taking opportunities. On the 4-hour chart, the risk seems tilted towards an upside move. The currency pair found support at the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). A solid break below 1.0960 will indicate further downside, with the next support at 1.0925 near the ascending trendline. On the upside, the 1.1000 level presents a crucial resistance to consider. Beyond the recent high, the next resistance level is at 1.1050. In summary, EUR/USD faces selling pressure amid US Dollar strength, driven by softer inflation data in key Eurozone countries. The overall trend suggests an upward bias, but a potential consolidation phase is indicated by the RSI. Critical levels to watch include 1.0960 on the downside and 1.1000 on the upside.
by Larissa-Trader
EURUSD is likely to fall to the bottom of the rising price channThe euro fell 0.17% versus the dollar to $1.0973 EURUSD, pressured by inflation data from Germany showing price growth slowed to 2.3% year-on-year in November from 3% in October. Inflation in Spain also slowed sharply. The euro zone-wide inflation figure is due out on Thursday, before the Fed's preferred measure of U.S. inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE, is released. The market's fixation on inflation will likely shift to labor data as the degree of the economic slowdown takes precedence over the pace of decelerating prices, Upadhyaya said. "Now the labor market is going be the big focus because it's the statistic that could lead to a Fed pivot from a pause to a cut," he said.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
1
EUR/USD Dips Near 1.0950, Faces Technical ChallengesFrom a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair continues to struggle to surpass the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July to October downturn. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is poised to break out of the overbought zone, urging caution for bullish traders. Therefore, it would be prudent to anticipate a short-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for any further upward movement. Meanwhile, any subsequent price decline may find support near the overnight swing low, around the 1.0925 region. Next in line is the 1.0900 level, below which the EUR/USD could retreat to the 50% Fibonacci level, around the 1.0860 area. Further downside momentum might reveal the confluence at 1.0770-1.0765, encompassing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci level. On the flip side, bullish participants should await sustained strength and acceptance above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, around the 1.0960-1.0965 zone, before making new bets. Subsequently, the EUR/USD pair could accelerate its upward momentum to reclaim the psychological level of 1.1000 and continue its ascent to test the next relevant resistance zone near 1.1030-1.1035 on the path to the August monthly high, around the 1.1065 area.
by shariebalhornz
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Long
by CryptoCheck-
38
"EUR/USD Stabilizes After Testing 15-Week High Near 1.1000" The EUR/USD exchange rate is retracing back towards the vicinity of 1.0980 after touching a 15-week high just above 1.1000, supported by an increase in risk appetite across the broader market, causing the US Dollar to depreciate and fall into the red against all major currencies on Tuesday. The daily chart depicts EUR/USD trading around the opening level, despite reaching a weekly high. The pair is still attempting to surpass the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from 1.1275 to 1.0447 at 1.0960, although the overall picture remains bullish. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is crossing above the flat 100-day SMA and is on the verge of crossing the undirected 200-day SMA, all within the range of 1.0790/1.0810. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain positive, although lacking directional strength. The 4-hour chart reveals buyers defending the downside trend around the slightly ascending 20-day SMA, currently at 1.0930. The longer-term moving averages maintain their upward slopes, significantly lower than the shorter-term averages, indicating buyer control. Lastly, technical indicators have lost directional strength but still remain higher than the midline, reflecting a lack of selling pressure. Support levels: 1.0930, 1.0895, 1.0860 Resistance levels: 1.0960, 1.1005, 1.1045
by Larissa-Trader
"EUR/USD: Challenges Below 1.0950"The EUR/USD pair experiences modest losses in the early Asian trading session on Monday. Increased demand for the U.S. Dollar has pushed the major currency pair lower. The potential upside for the EUR seems limited due to macroeconomic prospects. The pair is trading near the 1.0935 level, down 0.08% on the day. EUR/USD continues to trade in the upper half of the ascending regression channel, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding just above 50, indicating a lack of selling interest. The 1.0950 level (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend from July to October) is considered a strong resistance before 1.1000 (psychological level, static level), and 1.1025 (static level from August). On the flip side, support levels are located at 1.0900 (50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), psychological level), 1.0850 (50% Fibonacci retracement level), and 1.0800 (100-period SMA, lower limit of the ascending channel). EUR/USD closed the second consecutive session in negative territory on Thursday but attempted to stabilize above the 1.0900 level on Friday. S&P Global will release Manufacturing and Services PMI data for the U.S. at the end of the day, but thin trading conditions on Black Friday may limit the pair's actions before the weekend. Data from Germany shows that the IFO Business Climate Index, Germany's leading indicator, improved to 87.3 in November from 86.9 in October. The Current Assessment Index increased to 89.4 from 89.2, while the Expectations Index rose to 85.2 from 84.8. Although these figures are slightly lower than analyst estimates, they have little impact on the Euro's valuation. Meanwhile, in an interview with Boersen-Zeitung on Thursday, European Central Bank policy maker Pierre Wunsch called the market pricing for interest rate cuts "very optimistic" and argued that this stance could increase the likelihood of further tightening. Business activity for private sectors in the U.S. is forecasted to slow down in November. In the event of disappointing PMI results, the U.S. Dollar (USD) may struggle to sustain its recovery against its counterparts in the U.S. trading session.
by Larissa-Trader
Global Economic Analysis: Potential Recession in the EurozoneEurope The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 47.1 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month below the 50-point expansion threshold, despite exceeding economists' predictions. Both manufacturing and services sectors reflect a similar trend. Germany will suspend constitutional limits on net new borrowing for the fourth consecutive year after Prime Minister Olaf Scholz's government was compelled to implement sweeping budget reforms following a recent ruling by the national supreme court. This emergency move to lift the so-called "debt brake" will be part of the 2023 budget revision, expected to be presented by Finance Minister Christian Lindner next week. Asia China may have concluded its interest rate cuts as policymakers shift towards alternative measures to support the economy and maintain credit growth stability in the new year. Initial trade data from South Korea indicates that exports are likely to sustain growth momentum this month, continuing the recovery after a year-long recession. South Korea, a crucial global exporter, plays a significant role as an indicator of the global economic condition through its export performance. Emerging Markets Thailand's economic growth unexpectedly slowed in Q3 due to a decline in manufacturing caused by weak exports, supporting the new government's $14 billion cash support program as planned. Chile's economy expanded more than forecasted in Q3, driven by the mining sector, as the central bank began to ease monetary policy. Gross domestic product increased by 0.6% from July to September compared to the same period last year. In the prolonged interest rate decisions across Africa, the region's largest economies are expected to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Angola and Zambia raised rates this week to curb persistent inflation and stabilize their currencies, with Nigeria also planning an interest rate hike. South Africa maintains the current rate, and other countries including Morocco, Kenya, and Ghana are likely to follow suit.
by Larissa-Trader
EURUSD has an uptrendThe dollar index DXY, which measures the U.S. currency with six peers, eased 0.029% to 103.73, staying close to the two-and-a-half month low of 103.17 it touched earlier this week. The index is down 2.8% for the month, on course for its weakest monthly performance in a year on rising expectations that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and could start cutting rates next year. Markets have dialled back expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024, with futures now showing a 26% chance that the Fed cuts its target rate at the March 2024 policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. That compares with a 33% chance last week. The euro stood at $1.0904, having risen 0.16% overnight after a series of preliminary surveys showed recession in Germany may be shallower than expected, which offset a downbeat reading of French business activity.
Long
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD's uptrend returnsThe EUR/USD currency pair remains steady around 1.0900 as markets anticipate the release of Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures, with investors looking for signs of economic recovery in area. Upcoming data, expected to show manufacturing PMI at 43.4, services PMI at 48.1 and composite PMI at 46.8, could provide insight into the economic health of the US. Eurozone amid challenging global conditions. In recent statements, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel indicated that interest rates in the Eurozone may be approaching a peak, suggesting a cautious approach to further increases. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos reinforced this view by backing a data-driven approach and downplaying discussions of possible interest rate cuts in the near future. Investors and analysts will be closely watching the PMI figures for signs of the Eurozone's economic trajectory, which could influence the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions. Europe in the coming months. A better-than-expected PMI result could bolster confidence in the euro, while weaker figures could raise concerns about lingering economic headwinds in the region.
Long
by TinaTradingGold
EUR/USD Maintains Slight Decline Below 1.0900 The EUR/USD exchange rate continues its descent after failing to hold above 1.0950. On Wednesday, the pair encountered resistance at 1.0920 before experiencing another round of price depreciation. Finding support at 1.0850, the potential for further downside exists, targeting the crucial support level at 1.0830. The short-term downtrend line is positioned at 1.0900, and a move above this level could provide momentum for the Euro. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators suggest a continued bearish trend but lack strong conviction. The MACD indicator signals bearish tendencies, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves laterally, indicating potential consolidation in the range of 1.0890 to 1.0860 or around the 1.0830 region. A drop below the subsequent level would increase downward pressure, leading to additional losses for the Euro. The EUR/USD rate retreated on Wednesday to the 1.0850 area, driven by a stronger US Dollar following the release of US economic data. This pair continues to pull back from monthly highs in a corrective move. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel stated on Wednesday that interest rates in the Eurozone are nearing their peak. Market participants believe that interest rates are unlikely to increase further unless inflation recovers. Key data will be released on Thursday, including preliminary PMI indices for November. Forecasts suggest further improvements, but all figures are expected to remain below 50. This data could impact the market, and any negative surprises may add pressure to the current adjustment in EUR/USD. The Flash Services PMI is expected to rise from 47.8 to 48.0, and Manufacturing from 43.1 to 43.3. Also on Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting. The US Dollar has further recovered from monthly lows, gaining momentum after the release of mixed US data showing a larger-than-expected decrease in initial jobless claims and a significant drop in durable goods orders. The US market will be closed on Thursday. Bond yields continue to rise, supporting the ongoing adjustment of the US Dollar. Market sentiment seems poised for a consolidation ahead.
by Larissa-Trader
1
EUR/USD Holds Near 3-Month Highs, Driven by Market ExpectationsThe EUR/USD pair enters a consolidation phase during Tuesday's Asian trading, hovering just below the key level of 1.0900, marking the highest point since August 14th. The pair has seen consecutive gains, surpassing 1.0900, with the upward trend sustained above crucial daily Simple Moving Averages. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70 signals overbought conditions. On the 4-hour chart, overbought conditions persist, but no significant correction signs are evident. Further upside potential remains as long as prices stay above 1,0885. In case of a pullback, the next support level to watch is at 1,0830. On the upside, immediate resistance is around 1,0965, with a break aiming for 1,0990. The US Dollar extended its decline on Monday, propelling the EUR/USD to a three-month high near 1.0950. The prevailing market expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has completed interest rate hikes continues to weigh on the US Dollar, driven by stock market gains on Wall Street. The Dollar Index (DXY) dropped 0.35% to 103.45, the lowest since August. Market optimism regarding the Fed's rate hike completion, coupled with Wall Street's equity rally, maintains the upward bias for EUR/USD. The Dollar is still vulnerable as the Dollar Index seeks support. On Tuesday, the Fed will release the latest FOMC meeting minutes. In terms of US data, the Fed Chicago National Activity Index and Existing Home Sales are scheduled. In Europe, the upcoming crucial report will be the preliminary PMI for November, set to be released on Thursday. As long as the risk-on environment prevails, the EUR/USD pair has the potential for further gains. However, considering the superior economic performance of the US compared to the Eurozone, fundamental factors continue to support the US Dollar.
by Larissa-Trader
1
EUR/USD Holds Near 3-Month Highs, Approaching 1.0950"The EUR/USD exchange rate has risen for the second consecutive day, surpassing the 1.0900 level. The upward trend remains intact as prices are holding above significant Simple Moving Averages on the daily chart. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70 indicates overbought conditions. On the 4-hour chart, overbought conditions persist, but there are currently no signs of a major correction. Further upside potential exists as long as prices stay above 1.0885. If a pullback occurs, the next support level to watch is 1,0830. On the upside, immediate resistance is around 1.0965, and a higher breakout aims for the 1.0990 level. The US Dollar extended its decline on Monday, pushing the EUR/USD rate to a three-month high near 1.0950. The bias continues to favor the upside as the US Dollar remains vulnerable. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has completed its interest rate hikes continue to weigh on the US Dollar, and it is further fueled by stock market gains on Wall Street. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.35% to 103.45, its lowest since August. The greenback is still seeking support. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release the latest FOMC meeting minutes. In terms of US data, the Fed's National Activity Index and Existing Home Sales are on the schedule. In Europe, the upcoming key report will be the preliminary PMI for November, scheduled for Thursday. As long as the risk-on environment persists, the EUR/USD pair has the potential for further gains. However, considering the superior economic performance of the US compared to the Eurozone, fundamental factors still support the US Dollar.
by Gwen_Humuna
1
EUR/USD Analysis: Exploring Upward MomentumThe euro has exhibited a week-long uptrend, testing the previously established ascending trendline as a significant resistance level. The 1.09 mark stands out as a substantial barrier, and if successfully surpassed, the market may set its sights on the 1.10 level. Beyond that point, there is potential for the market to extend its upward trajectory. On the downside, multiple support levels exist near the 200-week EMA, particularly around the 1.0720 mark. As the euro charts its course, traders are closely monitoring these key levels, anticipating potential breakthroughs or pullbacks. The dynamics of the currency pair suggest a nuanced interplay of market forces, creating a landscape ripe for strategic analysis and decision-making.
by Larissa-Trader
EUR/USD Extends Upside Momentum Above 1.0700The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.0700 in the early Asian trading session on Tuesday. Lower US Treasury bond yields are exerting pressure on the US Dollar (USD), providing some support for this currency pair. However, concerns about economic downturn in the Eurozone may limit the Euro's upward trajectory. The EUR/USD exchange rate has increased for the second consecutive day and is holding above the 20-day and 55-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Technical indicators on the daily chart suggest a modest bullish trend. However, closing below 1.0615 would negate positive prospects. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is testing the short-term downtrend line around 1,0705, while staying above the support zone at 1,0655. Technical indicators are not providing clear signals. A breakout above 1,0710 would open up opportunities for further strength, with subsequent targets at 1,0735 and then the previous high near 1,0760. On the other hand, an acceleration of the downside may occur if the pair breaks below 1,0650, initially targeting 1,0635 and then 1,0610.
by Larissa-Trader
1
EUR/USD Maintains Modest Gains Near 1.0700"EUR/USD is holding slight gains near the 1.0700 mark in European trading on Monday. The US dollar started the new week on a defensive note, despite higher US bond yields. Traders are awaiting GDP data for the Eurozone and US inflation figures later in the week. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has dipped below 50, while EUR/USD falls below the midpoint of the upward regression channel, indicating a short-term bearish outlook. If EUR/USD fails to stabilize above 1.0680 (midpoint of the upward channel), sellers may remain active. In this scenario, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) adjusts as temporary support at 1.0660, followed by 1.0640 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.0620 (lower limit of the upward channel, SMA 100). On the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.0700 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 1.0730 (upper limit of the upward channel), and 1.0750 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
by Gwen_Humuna
1