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edges up as US inflation print fuels Fed rate cut speculation 26 January 2024, 17:04 •EUR/USD rises in North American trading, buoyed by softer US core PCE inflation data. •Fed's core PCE index fall to 2.9% raises hopes for interest rate cut, aiding EUR/USD's climb. •Mixed European signals: German consumer confidence falls, Spanish unemployment at 16-year low, ahead of Fed decision. The EUR/USD gained some 0.14% in early trading during the North American session as prices in the United States (US) remained above the US Federal Reserve’s goal but eased compared to November’s figures. The major trades at 1.0866 after diving to a low of 1.0812. The Euro got a life-line of a softer US PCE report The Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), rose 2.6% in the 12 months to December, as expected on an annual basis, while core PCE dipped from 3.2% to 2.9% and below forecasts. After the data, the EUR/USD climbed sharply and clocked a daily high of 1.0885 before retreating toward current exchange rates, as the data reaffirmed investors' speculations that the Fed could begin cutting rates by the summer. The CME FedWatch Tool depicts the odds for a quarter of a percentage rate cut by the Fed at 51.4%, while 50 basis points stand at 37.8%. Nevertheless, US Treasury bond yields reversed its course, climbing higher and putting a lid on the EUR/USD rise. Meanwhile, data across the pond showed that German consumers remain pessimistic amidst economic uncertainty after the GfK Consumer Confidence for February plunged from .25.4 in January to -29.7. In Spain, the Unemployment Rate fell to levels last seen in 2007, from 11.84% to 11.76% in the last quarter of 2023, according to an INE report. Ahead of the next week, the main spotlight would be the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on January 30-31. EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook Following the US data release, the EUR/USD advanced towards 1.0900 but failed to break yesterday’s high, which could pave the way for a pullback to the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 1.0843. Downside risks are seen at today’s low 1.0812, followed by the 1.0800 figure. Conversely, if buyers lift the spot prices above 1.0900, as they eye the 50-DMA at 1.0920.
Long
by sniper_2022
1
EUR/USD Finds Solid Support at 1.08500 Amidst Tepid Data.EUR/USD Finds Solid Support at 1.08500 Amidst Tepid Data, Eyes on Maintrend Continuation In a noteworthy turn of events, the EUR/USD has staged a rebound, establishing a robust support zone at 1.08500. This critical level is reinforced by the confluence with the Dynamic trendline, acting as dynamic support, and the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone. Additionally, a Bullish Divergence in the RSI and a favorable reaction at the 200-day Moving Average signal potential upward momentum. Euro Resilience Despite Local Data: Interestingly, the Euro has demonstrated resilience despite tepid local data. The preliminary Producer Manager Index (PMI) survey conducted by the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) indicates that business activity in the euro area contracted at the slowest rate in January, marking a six-month low. However, the official report highlights persistent downturns in both manufacturing and service sectors, coupled with further declines in new business. German PMI Figures: Breaking down the data, Germany's Manufacturing PMI recorded 45.4, while the services index posted at 47.6. For the Eurozone, the Services PMI came in at 48.4, a slight decrease from the previous 48.8. On a positive note, the manufacturing index showed improvement, rising to 46.6 from 44.4 in December. Upcoming US Preliminary PMIs: Later in the day, S&P Global is set to release the January preliminary PMIs for the United States (US). Market expectations lean towards manufacturing output maintaining its position in expansionary territory. This event could introduce further dynamics to the EUR/USD pair, given the interconnectedness of global markets. Technical Outlook and Maintrend Continuation: From a technical perspective, the confluence of support factors at 1.08500, along with the positive indications from the RSI and the 200-day Moving Average, strengthens the case for a continuation of the current tendency. Traders will be closely monitoring how the pair navigates through these levels and whether the rebound can be sustained. Conclusion: The EUR/USD's resilience at the crucial support level of 1.08500, despite mixed local data, underscores the significance of technical factors in guiding market movements. As the pair eyes a continuation of the maintrend, upcoming US PMI data could play a pivotal role in shaping short-term market dynamics. Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies in response to evolving technical and fundamental factors in the forex landscape. Our preference Long positions above 1.07700 with targets at 1.1000 & 1.1150 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
4
EUR/USD Struggles for Direction Amid ECB Rate Cut UncertaintyEUR/USD Struggles for Direction Amid ECB Rate Cut Uncertainty The EUR/USD pair finds itself in a tight trading range below the 1.0900 and 1.08500 levels during the European session on Wednesday. Traders appear cautious, refraining from making aggressive directional moves as uncertainty looms over the potential timing of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB Rate Cut Speculations: The first ECB policy rate cut is anticipated in April, with markets pricing in a total reduction of 135 basis points (bps) by the end of 2024. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde's recent signal that borrowing costs may only start decreasing in the summer, contingent on supportive economic data, has left traders in a wait-and-see mode. The focus now shifts to the upcoming ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday, seen as a pivotal event that could significantly impact the EUR/USD pair. Event and Data Risks: This week brings forth critical event and data risks, with preliminary estimates of the January Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMIs) set for release on Wednesday. These indicators will provide insights into the economic activity within the Eurozone and potentially influence the market sentiment. However, the real highlight of the week remains the ECB meeting on Thursday, where market participants anticipate clarity on the central bank's stance regarding interest rates and monetary policy. OCBC Bank's Analysis: Economists at OCBC Bank are closely analyzing the outlook for the EUR/USD pair. They suggest that an improvement in the PMI print could act as a catalyst, giving the Euro a renewed boost. Positive economic data may sway sentiment in favor of the Euro, offering traders additional insights as they position themselves in the market. Technical Perspective: From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD maintains a bullish bias in higher timeframes. The current retracement, hovering around the 1.08500 area and in confluence with the Dynamic trendline, the 61.8%, and 78.6% Fibonacci zones, presents an interesting zone for potential buyers looking for discounted prices. This area could serve as a launching pad for a new bullish impulse, with the target set around the 1.1000 level. Conclusion: The EUR/USD pair faces a challenging environment as traders navigate uncertainty surrounding potential ECB rate cuts. With the focus on the ECB meeting and key economic indicators, market participants are adopting a cautious approach. The technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook, with the retracement presenting an opportunity for buyers to enter at a discount. However, the true catalyst for a sustained move may come from the ECB meeting and positive PMI prints, providing clarity and direction for the EUR/USD pair in the coming sessions. Traders are advised to stay vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly in response to unfolding events and data releases. Our preference Long positions above 1.07700 with targets at 1.1000 & 1.1150 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD: Dollar Rebounds and Technical Indicators Signal...EUR/USD: Dollar Rebounds and Technical Indicators Signal Potential Upside EUR/USD faced a decline on Tuesday, reaching its lowest point in nearly two weeks at 1.0940, as the US Dollar (USD) initiated a decisive correction after a lackluster performance in the closing weeks of 2023. Technical Landscape: As the new trading day unfolds, the price opens with a bearish tone, navigating within the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci area within a bullish channel. Notably, the 100 moving average acts as a dynamic support, potentially influencing the pair's trajectory. USD Rebound and Market Sentiments: With limited high-tier data releases, the USD gains traction from a souring market mood and a steady recovery in US Treasury bond yields on Tuesday. The US Dollar Index, which experienced a 2% dip in December, rallied nearly 1% on the first trading day of 2024. Upcoming Economic Data: In the latter part of the day, the US economic docket is set to feature the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for December and the JOLTS Job Openings report for November. Market expectations anticipate the ISM Manufacturing PMI to inch higher to 47.1 from November's 46.7. A reading surpassing 50 could provide a boost to the USD upon immediate reaction. Conversely, a noticeable decline in job openings may exert downward pressure on the USD. Anticipated Bullish Impulse: Building on our technical analysis and taking into account the forthcoming economic data, there is an expectation for a potential bullish impulse in the EUR/USD pair. The interplay between technical indicators and fundamental factors sets the stage for a dynamic trading environment as investors await key data releases. As EUR/USD navigates the early trading sessions of 2024, the rebounding US Dollar and the alignment of technical signals become pivotal factors. The anticipation of a bullish impulse, coupled with the release of crucial economic data, creates an environment where traders remain alert to potential opportunities in the evolving currency landscape. Our preference Long positions above 1.0724 with targets at 1.1140 & 1.1200 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD: A Comprehensive Outlook Amidst Market UncertaintiesEUR/USD: A Comprehensive Outlook Amidst Market Uncertainties The EUR/USD pair rebounds from its recent lows, finding support near 1.0850 in tandem with the Dynamic trendline. Meanwhile, a backdrop of hawkish sentiments from Fed officials, coupled with robust US Retail Sales data, bolsters the USD's resilience, signaling a still-healthy economy. The Greenback's safe-haven appeal gains traction amid a weaker risk tone driven by concerns over China's economic recovery and geopolitical tensions. However, bullish sentiments around the Euro face challenges as ECB policymakers express mixed views on inflation and interest rates. ECB President Christine Lagarde refrains from countering expectations of rate cuts but urges caution amid rising Eurozone inflation. Technical Analysis: From a technical standpoint, our initial analysis regarding a long setup remains intact. In comparison to the previous day, the EUR/USD has shown an increase in value. Notably, the nightly pullback around the 1.0850 area aligns precisely with the 200 Moving Average on the Daily timeframe. The current price action involves a retest of the previous resistance at 1.08877 within the accumulation zone. While a bearish retest is considered a secondary option, the prevailing scenario leans towards a bullish impulse, aligning with the overarching uptrend. Our preference Long positions above 1.07700 with targets at 1.10170 & 1.1140 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
"EUR/USD Approaches Sub-1.0900 Levels, Facing Downside Pressure"The EUR/USD pair has experienced a deeper decline, touching its lowest point in 2024 at 1.0861 (as of January 16). It is now approaching a critical level, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0847. If this support is breached, the December 2023 low of 1.0723 (on December 8) may reappear, preceding the weekly low of 1.0495 (on October 13, 2023), followed by the October 2023 low of 1.0448 (on October 3) and the psychological level of 1.0400. Positive prospects for this currency pair are likely to face challenges below the 200-day SMA. The 4-hour chart currently indicates a further downside trend in the very near term. Breaking below 1.0861 would eliminate significant support until the 1.0723 level. The MACD indicator is also trading in negative territory, and this bearish scenario is reinforced by the RSI index hovering around the 28 level, signaling oversold conditions. In the event of occasional upward attempts, immediate resistance is anticipated at the 200-SMA at 1,0925, followed by 1,0998, seemingly strengthened by the proximity of the 100-SMA around 1.0980. Investors and traders will closely monitor these levels for potential shifts in the EUR/USD pair's short-term trajectory.
by AdmamTrade
EUR/USD: Navigating Challenges and Anticipating Bullish MomentumEUR/USD: Navigating Challenges and Anticipating Bullish Momentum in 2024 EUR/USD encountered a week of fluctuating fortunes, managing to recover from daily losses after briefly slipping below the critical support level of 1.0875 on Friday. Despite closing the first week of 2024 in negative territory, the pair's near-term technical outlook presents an intriguing puzzle for investors. With a lack of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, attention shifts to risk perception and market sentiment as key drivers in the coming weeks. Technical Analysis and Accumulation Range: The current price dynamics align with our earlier technical analysis, placing EUR/USD in an accumulation range just above the 200 moving average. However, a broader view, especially in the H4 timeframe, reveals a bullish trend within the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci area. This higher timeframe perspective sets the stage for potential bullish impulses, aiming to establish new higher highs. Mixed US Macroeconomic Data: The US experienced mixed macroeconomic data releases, contributing to wild fluctuations in EUR/USD during the American session on Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls for December surpassed market expectations, rising by 216,000. Despite this positive figure, downward revisions to November and October prints curtailed the USD rally. The Unemployment Rate held steady at 3.7%, but concerns emerged as the Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 62.5% in December from 62.8%. Furthermore, the ISM Services PMI declined to 50.6 from 52.7 in November, signaling a loss of momentum in the service sector's business growth. Anticipating Bullish Continuation: In light of the technical setup and mixed macroeconomic signals, our outlook for EUR/USD leans towards a bullish continuation. The accumulation range and the bullish trend within the Fibonacci area provide a foundation for potential upward movements. As market participants navigate evolving global dynamics and economic indicators, the anticipation of a bullish resurgence in EUR/USD becomes a focal point for traders eyeing strategic opportunities in the currency market. Our preference Long positions above 1.0770 with targets at 1.1140 & 1.1200 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD BUY NOW The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows it remains pretty much neutral for a fourth consecutive day. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains its bullish slope but acts as dynamic resistance around 1.0970. The longer moving averages, in the meantime, remain directionless, far below the current level, while technical indicators head nowhere around their midlines, reflecting the absence of directional interest. EURUSD BUY NOW. 1.09446 CONFIRM TARGET. 1.1008
Short
by FxJoseph_7
EUR's Unlocked Bullish Potential Plus Bearish Scenario[EURUSD]Dear Esteemed Investors, I'm sharing the results of my news trading method with you. By now, all of you know I'm using AI natural language processing to weight world news and cross-check against popular sentiment indicators like DSI and DSIE. Standard DSI/DSIE signals an optimistic outlook for the EURUSD market. It means that the possibly influential investors believe in the EUR. I've extended these analytics with machine-learning deep neural nets that implement the mentioned natural language processing. Here are some of the crucial results. The US dollar index has been trending lower in recent weeks, which has provided support for the EURUSD. This weakness results from the expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The central bank tackles slowing economic growth. Positive economic indicators from the eurozone, such as powerful industrial production and retail sales, have boosted investor confidence in the region's economic outlook. It has contributed to increased demand for the euro and a firmer EURUSD. Geopolitical tensions reduced, particularly regarding the Ukraine crisis, has created a more conducive environment for risk-on assets like the EURUSD. It has led to increased investor appetite for euro-denominated assets. However, rising inflation in the eurozone has raised concerns about the European Central Bank's ability to maintain its loose monetary policy. It has put downward pressure on the euro and weighed on EURUSD. Persistently high energy prices are putting a strain on eurozone economies, potentially leading to slower economic growth. It could dampen demand for the euro and weaken the EURUSD. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates faster than you expected, it could widen the interest rate differential between the US and Europe, making the dollar more attractive and weakening the euro. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and possible global recession could negatively impact investor sentiment and dampen demand for the euro and the dollar. It could create volatility and uncertainty in the EURUSD market. The EURUSD outlook remains mixed, with bullish and bearish factors at play. While the weaker US dollar and positive European economic data have supported the euro, rising inflation, energy price concerns, and the possibility of faster US interest rate hikes pose potential headwinds. Ultimately, the direction of the EURUSD will depend on the relative strength of these factors and the evolving global economic landscape. In objective numerical, MACD and RSI positively move on the bullish side under the chart. The indicators align with an ongoing bullish signal on them. The previous forecast started on 12 Dec 23 when I took a profit from my 30 Nov 23 short and wrote a bullish outlook. You can find these forecasts on the chart with the related ideas. I traded according to the same logic. So, I had and still have a long since sharing the latest forecast. I believe that the price can continue the bullish rally until $1.111. It's on the resistance line from historical tops under the short ideas on the left side of the chart. I marked the target zone with a green rectangle. If the price retraces, the $1.098 and $1.089 levels could act as support. While the bearish scenario is possible, probabilities point towards a bullish continuation. Disclaimer: The success of my historic forecasts doesn't guarantee your future results. It's not an investment advice. Do your research. I wrote the analytics for entertainment purposes. Kind regards, Ely
Long
by Elysian_Mind
2
EUR/USD Dynamics: Navigating Rebounds and US Labor Market InflueEUR/USD Dynamics: Navigating Rebounds and US Labor Market Influences EUR/USD exhibited signs of strength during the European trading hours on Thursday, yet encountered resistance in the latter part of the day as rising US Treasury bond yields breathed life into the US Dollar (USD). The pair currently grapples with a bearish trend, trading in negative territory below 1.09170 at the time of this analysis. This trading idea delves into the technical and fundamental aspects guiding the currency pair's movements. Technical Perspective: The current price trajectory aligns with a bullish trend, where the Dynamic trendline plays a pivotal role in facilitating rebounds. Notably, this dynamic trendline converges with the Fibonacci 50% and 61.8%, serving as critical support zones. A strategic stop loss is positioned below the 88.60% Fibonacci level, offering protection against a potential reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) lingering in oversold territory further strengthens the case for a new swing setup, potentially yielding new higher highs. Upcoming NFP Reading: As attention shifts to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reading scheduled for today, the market anticipates a figure at or above 200,000. Such an outcome could prompt investors to reassess the likelihood of a policy pivot by the Federal Reserve in March, providing a boost to the USD. Conversely, a disappointing print below 150,000 might fuel dovish Fed expectations and pave the way for EUR/USD to make upward strides as the week concludes. Conclusion: EUR/USD's intricate dance between rebounds and the influence of US labor market data highlights the dynamic nature of currency trading. The ongoing bearish trend is met with strategic support zones, and the impending NFP reading adds an element of uncertainty to the mix. As traders position themselves for potential shifts in market dynamics, the interplay of technical indicators and fundamental factors becomes paramount in navigating the ever-evolving foreign exchange landscape. Our preference Long positions above 1.0770 with targets at 1.1140 & 1.1200 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
4
The Euro's recent escapades with the US dollar have The Euro's dance with the US dollar last Thursday painted a curious picture - a spirited attempt to soar, only to stumble in the face of market fatigue, as if gravity suddenly remembered its role in the financial theatrics. This weariness isn't a solo act; it has accomplices. The Euro's recent surge stretched its limits, much like a rubber band pulled too far. And the timing? Well, it's the season of not just festivities but also fiscal scarcity. Liquidity tends to play hide-and-seek during this time of the year, leaving the market feeling a bit parched. The market's recent trajectory resembled a rocket's flight path - an upward surge that now seems to be enjoying a pause mid-air. This break isn't just a breather; it's a sigh of relief echoing across the boardrooms and trading floors. Ah, the holiday season! Nestled between the echoes of Christmas and the countdown to New Year's, it's a time when the market dynamics sway to a different tune. Prominent traders, much like eager kids waiting for the last firework to burst before the show's finale, choose to sit this one out. There's a unanimous decision to trade the trading for a while, thanks to the holiday mood casting its spell. It's not just a lull; it's the hush before the year-end storm. Most folks aren't glued to their screens analyzing FX trends; they're too busy contemplating the best roast turkey recipe or debating who'll win the family game of charades. The market, in its current subdued state, seems to be in harmony with the general mood - serene and taking a holiday siesta.
Long
by carefulLion07pab