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EURUSD: Evolution and movement trend of EURThe euro lost value compared to the USD today as the dollar had a significant increase. Germany released some disappointing data. Following the RBA's announcement that this would be the final increase in interest rates, the value of the Australian dollar plummeted dramatically. Germany's industrial production weakened last month, according to data, which had an indirect negative impact on the euro. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, will talk on Wednesday and Thursday. Following the Fed policy meeting last week, the markets will now be watching to see if he sticks to his more accommodating position. The euro lost value compared to the USD today as the dollar had a significant increase. Germany released some disappointing data. Following the RBA's announcement that this would be the final increase in interest rates, the value of the Australian dollar plummeted dramatically. Germany's industrial production weakened last month, according to data, which had an indirect negative impact on the euro. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, will talk on Wednesday and Thursday. Following the Fed policy meeting last week, the markets will now be watching to see if he sticks to his more accommodating position.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
The USD fell, extending the decline from last week. Will the EURThe U.S. dollar edged lower in early European trading Monday, falling to a six-week low and extending last week's decline on a less hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. At 03:20 ET (08:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, fell 0.1% to 104.782, after falling more than 1% last week, the sharpest decrease since the middle of last year. The dollar has weakened since the Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting last week, when the central bank offered dovish signals about more interest rate hikes. EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0743, with the euro rising to levels last seen in September on dollar weakness, rather than any form of regional economic strength. Which area? This tone was reinforced by Friday's official jobs report, which showed that US nonfarm payrolls grew less than expected in October. The data suggests the US labor market is cooling. more, which has been the main driver of the Fed's hawkish stance this year.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
Dollar now on the way down?The Euro rose today after the NFP report (Non-Farm Payrolls) missed expectations. The report indicates the number of new jobs created in the US outside of the agricultural sector. It is considered one of the most important indicators of the health of the US economy and the monetary policy of the Fed (Federal Reserve). The NFP data shows that the US economy created only 194,000 new jobs in October, well below the expected 450,000. This was the slowest job growth since early 2021. The unemployment rate is 3.9%, but the labor participation rate remained unchanged at 61.6%. This suggests that many people are still not actively looking for work. NFP – 150,000 — Previous month: 336,000 Unemployment rate 3.9% — Previous month: 3.8% Wage growth m/m 0.3% — Previous month: 0.2% These data have dampened expectations that the Fed will soon raise interest rates to combat inflation. Inflation in the US has risen to the highest level in 13 years and is well above the Fed's target of 2%. However, the Fed has emphasized that the inflation is temporary and that it is more concerned about the labor market. The Fed has already announced that it will reduce its bond purchases starting in November, but it has not set an exact timetable for an interest rate hike. A lower interest rate usually means a weaker dollar, as it reduces the attractiveness of US assets. A stronger interest rate usually means a stronger dollar, as it increases the demand for US assets. The EURUSD reflects the ratio between the Euro and the Dollar. If the EURUSD rises, it means that the Euro is gaining value against the Dollar. If the EURUSD falls, it means that the Euro is losing value against the Dollar. The EURUSD rose to 1.0733 today, which corresponds to an increase of 1.06%. (Data Blackbull Markets). This is the highest level since the end of September. The EURUSD benefited from the weakness of the Dollar, but also from the strength of the Euro. The Euro was supported by positive economic data from the Eurozone, which showed robust growth and rising inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) has also signaled that it will soon end its bond purchases and possibly raise interest rates earlier than expected. The question now is whether the EURUSD will continue its recovery or experience a reversal. This depends on many factors, such as future economic data, the monetary policy decisions of the Fed and the ECB, and geopolitical tensions. CHART ANALYSIS Technically, the EUR has certainly signaled a clear buying interest today, which could lift it towards 1.0850 in the next few days. In this area, there is an important price level, which also corresponds to the 50% retracement of the previous price downturn. However, caution should be exercised as sharp pullbacks often occur after strong rises, which can shoot many traders out of their long positions. Cautious traders will wait for pullbacks during the day to build long positions. CONCLUSION I see the EUR rising to 1.0850 in the next few days. Fundamentally and technically, the lights are green to build long positions.
Long
by Edgezone
1
EUR/USD Could Rise Back Towards 1.0650/1.0675"Despite negative data from the Eurozone (weaker growth and confidence, lower inflation), the calm Dollar environment warns that EUR/USD could rise again. The range of 1.0520 to 1.0700 appears to be the new short-term range, and EUR/USD might climb towards 1.0650/1.0675, possibly triggered by the US unemployment claims announcement. The data calendar is light, but attention is on the speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane. We anticipate he may hint at another rate hike in December, although the current forex market already fully prices in any further ECB tightening measures.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD: Defensive Ahead of Eurozone CPI Data"The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on previous positive moves and trades with slight bearish momentum in the Asian session on Tuesday. However, the spot price attempts to hold above the key level of 1.0600 and remains contingent on the price dynamics of the US Dollar (USD). The tightening stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) further supports higher US Treasury yields, bolstering the USD's appeal for low-priced buying, thus acting as a resistance for the EUR/USD pair. This, coupled with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may not raise rates further, contributes to limiting the spot price. This sentiment was reaffirmed by data showing Germany's consumer inflation slowed down from 4.3% YoY to 3.0% in October, marking the lowest level since August 2021. This decline comes amid looming economic recession risks, indicating the end of the ECB's rate hike cycle. In contrast, markets are evaluating the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates once again in 2023. Investors seem convinced that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance given the challenging US economic recovery and persisting inflation. Thus, the focus will remain on the outcomes of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting. The US central bank will announce its decision on Wednesday, and many anticipate it will maintain the status quo in its second consecutive meeting. Meanwhile, market participants will seek signals about the Fed's future rate hike path, impacting the USD's price dynamics and creating new momentum for the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, Tuesday's release of Eurozone flash CPI data will be scrutinized for short-term opportunities ahead of the US macroeconomic data - Chicago PMI and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index."
by Gwen_Humuna
1
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0550 Ahead of German GDP, CPI DataEUR/USD is trading sideways around 1.0550 on Monday morning in Europe. Traders are cautious ahead of crucial inflation and GDP data from Germany. Political tensions remain a cause for concern. EUR/USD might face strong resistance around 1.0570-1.0580, where the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% of the latest downward trend, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and the 200-day SMA converge. If the pair rises above this area and stabilizes there, the next price targets could be 1.0640 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%) and 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci retracement level of 50%). On the downside, temporary support lies at 1.0530 (static level) before 1.0500 (psychological level) and 1.0450 (recent low point). EUR/USD rose to 1.0600 at the end of last week but lost momentum and closed almost unchanged on Friday. Early Monday, the pair moved within a tight channel around 1.0550. Short-term technical prospects indicate a lack of directional momentum. Buyers might hesitate to bet on a stable Euro recovery unless the pair breaks the 1.0570-1.0580 barrier. Markets expect Germany's economy to contract by 0.7% annually in the third quarter. Later in the day, Germany's Destatis will release October inflation data. On a yearly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to rise by 3.6%, down from the 4.3% increase recorded in September. Worsening economic prospects in the Eurozone and increasing signs of slowing inflation have allowed the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain its key interest rates. Unless German CPI inflation unexpectedly surges in October, the market is unlikely to reconsider the ECB's interest rate outlook. In an interview with Croatia's state television HRT1 over the weekend, ECB policy maker Boris Vujčić stated, "We have completed the process of raising interest rates." In the latter half of the day, the U.S. economic calendar does not feature any high-impact releases. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were last seen rising between 0.3% and 0.7%. The opening gains on Wall Street could potentially weigh on the U.S. dollar, but investors may limit large positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcements on Wednesday.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Nears 1.0500 Amid ECB Focus"In Asian trading on Thursday, EUR/USD remains defensive, hovering around 1.0560, the lowest in a week, as traders await the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. The currency pair continues its decline for the second consecutive day, extending its retreat from monthly highs. Support was found around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0560. Daily chart technical indicators paint a mixed picture, with momentum hovering around the midpoint but trending downwards, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing a positive slope but also turning south. The pair is currently testing support around 1.0560. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators indicate a bearish trend. The primary support is the upward trendline around 1.0550. As long as the price stays above that level, the Euro's recovery potential remains intact. However, breaking below could incur additional losses, initially targeting 1.0530 and then 1.0500. To shift the technical outlook to bullish, the Euro needs to rise above 1.0610.
by Gwen_Humuna
EURUSD: ECB under pressure to reduce €1.7 trillion bond portfoli The European Central Bank is increasingly having to reconsider when to start winding down the 1.7 trillion euro ($1.8 trillion) bond portfolio it bought during the pandemic. The ECB will begin discussions on ending the PEPP rollover before cuts end in 2024 at a meeting in Athens this week. This is fully consistent with the rate tightening efforts of 10 successive interest rate hikes to bring inflation back to 2%.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EURUSD short term Longs to 1.06650 SCENARIO 1- My current bias for EURUSD is that it will currently react off the (9hr) demand zone, which we will expect for price to accumulate in order for us to enter buys up to 1.06650. From were the (6hr) supply zone is located, we will then expect price to slow down and distribute for potential sells all the way back down to 13hr demand zone. Or possibly even lower as there's loads of liquidity lying around those POI's that I have marked out. My confluences for the buys are as follows: - Price tapped in a 9hr demand zone that caused a BOS to the upside. - Market is currently retracing due to the impulsive move up that happened during the past couple days. - Imbalances are left from when price pushed down today that it needs to comeback and fill. - There's lots of magnets that attract price in the bullish directions i.e untouched Asia highs and trend line liquidity. - Price is creating higher highs and higher lows and has shown this via a change of character on the 4hr as well as a break of structure on the 4hr to confirm the shift in trend. - In addition for price to continue going down in a bearish trend overall I would be expecting for price to mitigate the 6hr supply zone above in order to continue going down. P.S. For now I would be expecting wyckoff accumulation to play out in the lower timeframes to give us a indication of were we can find a sniper entry in order to maximise our risk to reward ratio.
Long
by Hassan_fx
1
EUR/USD Holds Recovery Below 1.0700 Ahead of Eurozone and US PMIEUR/USD continues its recovery but remains below the 1.0700 level early on Tuesday. The pair benefits from the decline in US Treasury yields and the weakness of the US dollar. Positive changes in risk sentiment support the new upward trend. Keep an eye on EU/US PMI data. The EUR/USD exchange rate accelerated its gains on Monday, surpassing the 1.0640 level. It continues to move further away from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), trending upwards. The daily chart indicates further potential for an increase, with significant resistance at the 55-day SMA around 1.0710. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has broken a significant downtrend line, significantly improving the outlook for the Euro and indicating further potential for price increase. Although the price is still above 1.0595, there is a possibility of more significant gains. Below that level, support appears around 1.0550, represented by the upward trend line from the October lows. Conversely, above 1.0670, the next targets are 1.0695, followed by 1.0710 and 1.0760. Short-term technical indicators suggest further upward movement; however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently above 70, indicating potential consolidation before another price increase. The EUR/USD exchange rate surged on Monday due to the weaker US dollar. The pair broke the downtrend line and rose to 1.0676, the highest level in a month. The outlook for the Euro remains favorable in the Asian trading session, although some consolidation might occur after a 100-pip increase. The sharp decline of the US dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair on Monday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield initially rose above 5.00% but quickly reversed, dropping sharply to 4.84%. This sharp decline pushed the US dollar index down to 105.51, the lowest level of the day since September 22. Stocks on Wall Street showed mixed reactions as the drop in yields somewhat improved market sentiment. Volatility continues to dominate the bond market ahead of significant issuances. On Tuesday, Eurozone and US PMI data are expected to be released. There is a slight improvement in Eurozone consensus and a slight decrease in the US. The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting on Thursday, along with important US economic indicators such as GDP and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.
by Gwen_Humuna