probable sell in eurusdIf he breaks the structure and comes back to me, then I'll come in with a sell limit.
Eurusddaily
EUR/USD:A Resilient Recovery Amidst Economic Data and Market...EUR/USD:A Resilient Recovery Amidst Economic Data and Market Sentiment Shifts
The EUR/USD pair demonstrated a commendable recovery, reclaiming lost ground on Monday as an improved market sentiment put pressure on the US Dollar. This resurgence was marked by a significant rejection at the 1.08000 level, coinciding with the 78.6% and 88.60% Fibonacci levels, signaling a potential shift in the prevailing bearish trend. The Stochastic RSI on the H4 timeframe contributed to this optimistic outlook by displaying a divergence.
Despite mixed European data, with Germany reporting a contraction in Q4 GDP, the overall Eurozone GDP surprised on the upside, posting a 0.1% increase from the previous year. Additionally, the Economic Sentiment Indicator for January met expectations at 96.2, while Consumer Confidence contracted to -16.1 during the same month.
Attention in the market is now turning towards key US data releases, with January's Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings report taking center stage. These figures are particularly relevant in the lead-up to the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for the following Friday. Concurrently, market participants eagerly await the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision slated for Wednesday.
As the EUR/USD pair appears to find a new bullish impulse within the confines of a bearish channel, traders are anticipating an increase in value. The short-term target for this potential bullish movement is set at 1.1000 in the coming days, pending the outcome of critical economic data releases and the Fed's policy decision.
Our Idea:
Long positions above 1.06700 with entry at 1.08000 and targets at 1.1000 & 1.1150 in extension.
💡 EURUSD: Forecast January 26After breaking the short-term downtrend line, the buyers were unable to maintain the pressure and the sellers returned later, currently the price is being forced down to the resistance area of 1,082, a continuous change in buying and selling pressure. This shows that the two sides are struggling fiercely in this area without creating any really clear signals. You temporarily stop trading, pay attention to the boundaries of the range, the direction of the breakout can reveal the next direction of the price.
Bears Running Wild!, Bulls Hesitate in EUR/USD ArenaUpon analyzing recent price movements over the last few days, a noticeable bearish sentiment is evident. The market is consistently forming lower lows and lower highs. In line with this trend, my outlook is inclined towards identifying selling opportunities. I plan to initiate sales after the price fails the fair value gap and reaches an area of supply, which we are currently approaching. In the event the market moves against me, I am open to reconsidering and may explore buying opportunities. However, my primary focus is on following the prevailing trend and seeking selling opportunities today. Thank you, and have a great day, my friends.
EURUSD DAILY ANALYSIS After Taken liquidity of sell side well see disturubiton to taken liquidity buy side of equal high
- Tading is probability control your risk management.
Good luck !
GBP USD TRADE SET UP. Here is my idea on GBP USD.
Trade confluence
1. Head and shoulders Pattern
2. Bouncing from the Neckline to retest the broken bearish market structure creating a LH
3. We are waiting for double top to complete at the reset level for entry short.
Maybe Not?
Bearish Symphony: EUR/USD Dances to the Melody of Downward TrendGood morning, this is Joe Malone from Districtfx. Currently, we're observing bearish price action for the EUR/USD pair. The charts indicate a bearish sentiment around the 1.08900 level. We anticipate a retracement to that level, presenting a selling opportunity to the downside. Upon retracement, we'll explore a potential selling opportunity, targeting the low of the London session at 1.08680 and another take profit level at 1.08550. It's crucial to manage risk effectively for future trading opportunities. Stay warm on the East Coast, and have a great weekend!
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"EUR/USD Approaches Sub-1.0900 Levels, Facing Downside Pressure"The EUR/USD pair has experienced a deeper decline, touching its lowest point in 2024 at 1.0861 (as of January 16). It is now approaching a critical level, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0847. If this support is breached, the December 2023 low of 1.0723 (on December 8) may reappear, preceding the weekly low of 1.0495 (on October 13, 2023), followed by the October 2023 low of 1.0448 (on October 3) and the psychological level of 1.0400. Positive prospects for this currency pair are likely to face challenges below the 200-day SMA.
The 4-hour chart currently indicates a further downside trend in the very near term. Breaking below 1.0861 would eliminate significant support until the 1.0723 level. The MACD indicator is also trading in negative territory, and this bearish scenario is reinforced by the RSI index hovering around the 28 level, signaling oversold conditions. In the event of occasional upward attempts, immediate resistance is anticipated at the 200-SMA at 1,0925, followed by 1,0998, seemingly strengthened by the proximity of the 100-SMA around 1.0980. Investors and traders will closely monitor these levels for potential shifts in the EUR/USD pair's short-term trajectory.
7 Dimension analysis For EURAUD 🕛 TOPDOWN - Bearish Continuation Setup for EUR/AUD
Overview: Monthly and daily analyses reveal a prolonged bearish trend with notable liquidity sweeps. Weekly analysis is pending, focusing on the daily for detailed insights.
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: Daily
1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish
🟢 Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS).
🟢 Swing Move: Impulsive.
🟢 Inducement: None observed.
🟢 Pull Back: Absent.
🟢 Ext OB: Mitigated.
🟢 Support/Demand Area: Weak demand area - possible redistribution.
🟢 Trendline: Daily trendline intact.
🟢 Buildup/Pre-break/Post-break/QC: Data insufficient.
🟢 Traps: None detected.
🟢 Time Frame Confluence: Daily.
2️⃣ Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS
Reversal: Head and shoulders, double top.
Rounding Patterns: Double at the 2nd shoulder with strong rejection.
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS
Key Considerations:
Record session count indicates a possible consolidation at this support.
Strict marubozu candle could be a climactic player.
Tower top/bottom indicates potential climax at the opening.
3️⃣ Volume:
🟢 Fixed Range suggests a profit booking area.
🟢 Good breakout volume.
4️⃣ Momentum RSI:
🟢 In a super bearish zone.
🟢 Range shift not confirmed.
🟢 No divergence.
🟢 Loud moves shifted from sideways to bearish.
5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 Middle band rejection.
🟢 Squeeze done with breakout outside the lower band.
🟢 Walking on the band just started.
🟢 Dual band derivation supported.
6️⃣ Strength According to ROC:
🟢 Values: EUR at 0.31, AUD at 4.1. AUD exhibits more strength at this level.
7️⃣ Sentiment: After comprehensive analysis, the sentiment strongly favors a sell setup in this pair.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: Daily
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ Current Move: Impulsive
✔ Support/Resistance Base: Support level already broken with a momentum candle.
☑️ Candles Behavior: Momentum is bearish.
☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Confirmed.
💡 Decision: Sell at opening.
🚀 Entry: 1.63137
✋ Stop Loss: 1.6551
🎯 Take Profit: Hold until price walks on the band.
2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Trendline Breakout, FOMO.
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3.5
🕛 Expected Duration: 10 days
SUMMARY: The analysis strongly supports a bearish continuation setup. The absence of significant pullbacks and strong bearish momentum across multiple indicators suggests a favorable sell opportunity. Risk management is key, and the strategy involves holding until a clear indication of a trend reversal.
Bullish Vibes in the Air as I Go Long on EUR/USD Today!Analyzing the present price movement reveals a notable reluctance among sellers. With each turnaround in selling pressure, we observe a cautious approach. Sellers have consistently driven the market down by an average of approximately 2.3 percent. I am adopting a bullish stance for the Euro session, aiming to capitalize on potential gains in pips.
Euro's Risk Amid CPI SurgeEuro marked its strongest two-month performance in a year, surging 4.4% against the US dollar in November and December 2023.
The dollar's weakness largely contributed to this rise, driven by expectations of swift rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, eroding its competitive edge.
The European Central Bank (ECB) countered rate-cut pressures. Despite the Fed's market-friendly stance in December, ECB President Christine Lagarde dismissed talks of rate cuts, propelling the euro up by over 1%.
Lagarde also anticipated fundamental impacts boosting December inflation and projecting a slower inflation decline in 2024. Forecasts predict Germany's CPI to rise to 3.9% from November's 2.3%.
This week's release of regional CPI figures, expected after German data, forecasts inflation reaching 3% in December, marking a three-month high.
Yet, market doubts linger regarding the ECB's hawkishness. The market's implied path continues to sway dovishly after December, with expectations of the first 25 basis point cut by April.
Traders have factored in six cuts, totaling 150 basis points or a 1.5% rate decrease, and imply a 68% likelihood of a seventh cut. This hints at a perceived tilt toward a dovish policy trajectory.
EUR JPY TRADE SET UP EUR JPY falling wedge pattern.
We had a break and retest and exhausted at the lower timeframe based on candlesticks formations on the retest level
EUR/USD Under 1.0900 Before US PMI, FOMC Minutes EUR/USD faces pressure from a stronger US Dollar, hovering near 1.0941, down 0.02%. Daily indicators suggest a potential downtrend continuation if it breaks below 1.0920. On the 4-hour chart, recovery is uneven from oversold levels, with potential further decline under 1.0920. Economic data and FOMC minutes await, as market sentiment remains cautious amid economic slowdown signals and risk aversion.
EUR/USD: A Delicate Balance of Technical Patterns and Market..EUR/USD Embarks on 2024: A Delicate Balance of Technical Patterns and Market Sentiments
As the European session opens its doors to 2024, EUR/USD treads cautiously, marking modest declines below 1.1008. The immediate technical outlook suggests a potential extension of the ongoing correction, while market participants exercise caution, refraining from substantial commitments in anticipation of pivotal macroeconomic data releases scheduled later in the week.
December Triumphs and Dollar Dynamics:
EUR/USD showcased resilience throughout December, securing gains of over 1% and achieving a second consecutive month of positive momentum. This upward surge was fueled by a weakening appetite for the US Dollar (USD) as investors speculated about an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, possibly in March. In contrast, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers stood firm on their non-committal stance regarding any policy pivot, underscoring the premature nature of such considerations.
Technical Insights and Bullish Channel:
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to navigate within a bullish channel. Presently positioned within the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci area, the currency pair presents an intriguing opportunity for a potential pullback. Analysts eye a continuation of the bullish trend, envisioning a swing setup unfolding in the upcoming sessions.
Anticipated Data Releases and Market Focus:
In the unfolding day, market attention gravitates towards S&P Global's imminent release of revised December Manufacturing PMI figures for Germany, the Euro area, and the US. These anticipated data points hold the promise of offering crucial insights into the economic performance of key regions, shaping market sentiments in the process.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.09290 with targets at 1.1150 & 1.1200 in extension.
Bears Roar and Bulls Hesitate EUR/USDEUR/USD Bears Take Control, Slamming through Monthly Resistance at 1.11392! No Reversal Signals Yet, but Stay Alert for Post-Holiday Surprises. The Deciding Factor? Keep an Eye on This Week's FOMC Meetings and Data Drops!
DISCLAIMER: The ideas presented here are speculative. Users should exercise caution, employ proper risk management, and conduct their own research before making any trading or investment decisions. This information is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
EURUSD Expected to go sideways todayThe euro's dance with the US dollar last Thursday painted a curious picture - a spirited attempt to soar, only to stumble in the face of market fatigue, as if gravity suddenly remembered its role in the financial theater.
This fatigue is not a solo act; it has accomplices. The Euro's recent appreciation has exceeded its limits, like a rubber band being stretched too far. And the timing? Well, this is not only a festive season but also a season of financial scarcity. Liquidity tends to play hide and seek during this time of year, leaving the market feeling a bit dry.
The market's recent trajectory has been like a rocket's flight - a surge that now appears to be paused in mid-air. This vacation isn't just about relaxing; It was a sigh of relief that echoed throughout the boardroom and trading floor.
Oh, the holiday season! Nestled amidst the echoes of Christmas and the countdown to the New Year, this is the time when market dynamics take on a different tune. Famous traders, like children eagerly waiting for the last fireworks to go off before the show's finale, choose to sit this one out. There was a unanimous decision to stay trading for a while, thanks to the ongoing holiday mood.
EUR/USD Nears 1.1050 Closure for 2023Technical Outlook:
The EUR/USD rate lingers around 1.1050, swinging between the 50-hour and 200-hour SMAs as 2023 draws to a close.
Post-holiday trading will transition into an extended break after the New Year, with EUR/USD finding technical support from the 200-hour SMA just above 1.1000.
Daily candlesticks reflect an overbought scenario as the Euro retreats from Thursday's multi-month high near 1.1150. The 50-day SMA converges toward the 200-day SMA around 1.0850. Technical indicators, including the 14-day RSI, hint at a potential pullback from overbought conditions.
The restrained movement of EUR/USD near 1.1050 signals cautious market sentiments, with indicators suggesting a possible retreat despite recent highs. This shift may influence early market trends in the new year.
Wishing everyone a Happy New Year !
"EUR/USD Dips Below 1.1100 Amid Year-End Volatility"EUR/USD faced challenging retracements on Thursday as thin holiday trading stirred volatility around the final trading day of 2023.
The Euro (EUR) swiftly climbed to a 21-week high of 1.1140 early on Thursday as broader markets continued to shed the US Dollar (USD) on expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. However, market over-expectations regarding the Fed's structural pivot played out well before today, and the uptick in the 7-year US Treasury yields triggered a retreat to the safe-haven USD, pushing riskier assets like the Euro back into the red on the last trading day of 2023.
Initial US unemployment claims for the week ending December 22 also rose, indicating 218 thousand new claims compared to the previous week's adjusted 206 thousand. Additionally, pending home sales in the US for November fell short of market expectations, holding at 0.0% and missing the market forecast of a 1.0% recovery from October's adjusted -1.5% decline.
As the year concludes, the EUR/USD forex pair grapples with market dynamics influenced by shifting expectations, economic data, and ongoing global uncertainties. Traders are closely monitoring these factors as they navigate the currency markets in anticipation of the new year.
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1100, Eyes US Employment Data EUR/USD extends its upward momentum beyond the psychological level of 1.1100 during the Asian session on Thursday. The US dollar's overall weakness provides some support for the major currency pair, despite the rebound in US Treasury bond yields. Attention is now focused on mid-range US employment data.
EUR/USD has confirmed the breakthrough above 1.1000 and quickly reached the 1.1100 mark. The pair peaked at 1.1122 before retracing modestly. The upward trend persists, although technical indicators are overbought across most timeframes. The trend remains strong and resilient, though some consolidation seems likely.
On the 4-hour chart, the trend is bullish. However, technical signals suggest some accumulation may occur ahead of the Asian trading session, potentially ranging between 1.1110 and 1.1080. The 1.1050 region has become a relevant support area, followed by the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1030. Below 1.0980, the short-term trend may turn neutral. Corrections could be viewed as buying opportunities, keeping downsides limited.
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1100 Despite Overbought SignalsEUR/USD extended its rise above 1.1100 in the Asian session on Thursday, supported by a weaker US dollar. Despite overbought technical indicators, the pair confirmed the breakthrough above 1.1000. The upward trend remains strong, with potential consolidation between 1.1110 and 1.1080. Key support lies at 1.1050, followed by the 20-period SMA at 1.1030. Corrections may present buying opportunities, with downside risks limited below 1.0980.
EUR/USD Analysis: Post-Christmas InsightsOur technical outlook for EUR/USD remains unchanged as we await shifts in performance, likely to occur with the return of investors and market activity post the holiday season. Currently, examining the daily chart, there's a discernible upward trend in the pair's performance, holding steady around and above the psychological resistance level of 1.1000. If the weakness in the US dollar persists, the currency pair may find opportunities for further recovery.
From a technical standpoint, the immediate resistance levels are at 1.1065 and 1.1120. Beyond these levels, technical indicators may start leaning towards overbought conditions. Conversely, within the same timeframe, a retracement to the support level of 1.0880 is crucial for the bearish camp to regain control and disrupt the current upward momentum. Stay tuned for market developments as we navigate the dynamics in the post-holiday trading environment.
AUD Falls from Yearly Highs Amidst US Core PCE Data ReleaseThe Australian Dollar experienced a notable surge as the US Dollar dipped close to its monthly lows. The Reserve Bank of Australia will assess additional data to shape future monetary policy decisions. Softened data from the US reinforces expectations of the Fed easing monetary policy in early 2024, with Q3 annual GDP and QoQ core PCE dropping by 4.9% and 2.0%, respectively.
The Australian Dollar is currently trading below the psychological resistance level at 0.6800, having peaked at 0.6802 on Friday. Widely shared bullish sentiment suggests the potential for the AUD/USD pair to surpass recent highs and target a significant resistance level at 0.6850. On the flip side, key support levels are identified at 0.6750, ahead of the seven-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6740. A breach below this crucial support zone may guide the AUD/USD pair towards the psychological support at 0.6700, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6679.
Positive Outlook for EUR/USD in the Coming YearThe swifter interest rate cuts in the United States compared to elsewhere signal a more pronounced weakening of the dollar. The U.S. interest rate reductions are also expected to bolster the global economy, commodity and energy prices, as well as risk sentiment. Consequently, risk-sensitive currencies like NOK and SEK are anticipated to perform well in the near future. However, there are numerous uncertainties on the horizon, including underlying government debt issues, the U.S. Presidential election, and geopolitical challenges. Many of these factors could potentially strengthen the USD beyond our initial predictions.
