EURUSD TRADE IDEA (AUGUST 9, 2023)EURUSD TRADE IDEA (AUGUST 9, 2023)
EURUSD is currently trading within a falling channel.
Price is on it's way to kiss the top of the channel at 1.0989-95 area.
A short position at this channel top will offer an amazing trade with great risk reward ratio.
Your 'Stop loss' should be at 1.1017, and your targets should be at:
1.0930, 1.0915, 1.0890, and lastly the channel bottom 1.0830.
Eurusddaily
7 Dimension Analysis For EURGBP 😇7 Dimension Analysis - Daily Time Frame: Identifying Potential Reversal Opportunities
1: Price Structure:
Bullish trend with an initial choch (Correction of Higher Chance) phase. The move is impulsive, but weakness is evident with an inverter hammer and a doji candle formation. Inducement is completed, and the price has changed its character. A liquidity sweep has occurred with no pullback yet. Demand area and weekly support are defined, providing a strong foundation.
2: Patterns:
🟢TREND LINES:
Multiple angles and horizontal lines indicating potential support and resistance levels.
🟢CHART PATTERNS:
Double bottom pattern with a fake breakout. Rectangle pattern already broken. A fake out occurred at the bottom.
🟢CANDLE PATTERNS:
Inverted hammer with multiple long wicks. Doji candle formation. A record session count with 6 consecutive sessions showing proper higher high closings. Change in guard pattern completed. Inside Bar pattern with the last two sessions forming an inside hammer and an inside doji.
3: Volume:
High volume at the start of the swing, but currently low volume.
4: Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi:
🟢 Sideways to bullish .
🟢 Range shift from Bearish to sideways.
5: Volatility measure Bollinger bands:
🟢 Squeeze breakout occurred, but unable to sustain. Now, middle band support will decide further direction.
🟢 W formation completed, suggesting a move towards the target.
🟢 Dual band derivation 1 supported.
6: Strength ADX:
Bulls are currently in power.
7: Sentiment ROC:
The rate of change indicates that EUR is stronger than GBP.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H1
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ Entry Move: Corrective wait till Choch
✔ Support Resistance Base: Third Higher Low (3rd HL) May push prices into trigger area
➕ FIB: Trigger event activated
↕️ Trend line breakout: Wait for confirmation. after breakout we will wait price can finish corrective move
☑️ Final Comments: Waiting for the completion of the corrective move.
💡 Decision: Patience until the price completes its correction.
🚀 Entry: 0.8591
✋ Stop Loss: 0.8499
🎯 Take Profit: 0.8755
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3
🕛 Expected Duration: 10 days.
EURARS Long The perfect Bullish Trend45 degress; Andre Kostolany called this conditions as the perfect healthy trend that will continue longer than expected!
strategy bullish
trend
no profit taking
The trade is over ,if the trend conditions change
Argentina’s experience after the collapse of the peso ten years ago supports the view that Greece, and perhaps other peripheral economies, would ultimately be better off leaving the euro-zone rather than struggling on with the current mix of austerity, bail-outs and debt restructuring.
Summary
Peronism, a populist movement established by President Juan Peron in the 1940s, remains the dominant political ideology in Argentina, but several parties with varying philosophies now vie for power.
Despite its economic might, Argentina has often struggled to meet its international financial obligations, defaulting on its sovereign debt nine times.
Argentina has maintained a close partnership with the United States since the Obama administration, but its relations with the rest of South America have been strained over China’s growing influence in the region.
Argentina is considered one of the most stable democracies in Latin America, but the government faces several enduring challenges, including endemic corruption and low levels of public trust. In 2020, Argentina ranked 78 out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, tying with states including China and Kuwait.
What is the state of Argentina’s economy?
Argentina is the third-largest economy in Latin America, behind Brazil and Mexico. Its major industries include automobiles, textiles, mining, technology, agriculture, and tourism. Additionally, analysts say there is significant economic potential in the development of renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, and related resources, such as lithium.
Argentina has historically shifted between pro-business and populist administrations, which have taken a more heavy-handed role in the economy and increased social spending. Before taking office, Fernandez promised to reverse the austerity measures enacted under Macri. His administration has since increased taxes on exports and high-income households, lowered interest rates, and raised the minimum wage. However, while year-on-year unemployment has fallen recently, the country still has one of the highest inflation rates in the world, and four in ten Argentines live below the national poverty line.
Argentina’s top trading partners are the United States, Brazil, and China. The United States is also Argentina’s largest foreign investor, with more than three hundred U.S. companies operating there. In addition, Argentina is a member of several regional trade groups, including the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) and the Latin American Integration Association, and it is currently a prospective member for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a bloc of the world’s most advanced economies.
What are Argentina’s major economic challenges?
Argentina’s climate for business and investment has worsened in recent years, weakening due to political dysfunction, price and capital controls, high inflation, debt concerns, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, foreign investment dropped to $4.1 billion, down 38 percent from the previous year, and several international companies announced they were downsizing or leaving Argentina amid the country’s ongoing recession. The overall economy has shrunk each year since 2018.
Argentina was one of the ten wealthiest countries per capita in the early twentieth century. However, economists say that its overreliance on commodity exports and unsustainable government spending fueled frequent boom-bust cycles, resulting in political instability and economic decline in the decades that followed.
Successive administrations have struggled to keep the country’s finances in check during periods of economic turmoil. As a result, Argentina has often failed to pay its international creditors; it has defaulted on its sovereign debt nine times over the last two centuries, one of the most frequent in the world to do so. The largest default occurred in December 2001, when the government reneged on nearly $93 billion in loans, causing Argentina to lose access to international debt markets. To restore its ability to borrow, Macri cut export taxes, lifted currency controls, and negotiated a debt settlement with holdout creditors in 2016. While these actions were successful, Argentina lost access again following the country’s default in May 2020.
As of December 2020, Argentina’s total national debt was $336 billion, or nearly 90 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). Of that, the government owes $45 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and $2.4 billion to the Paris Club, an informal group of private creditors.
EurUsd -> Riding The Obvious WavesHello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of EurUsd 💪
With EurUsd retesting previous monthly structure and the 0.618 fibonacci retracement level I do expect a short term bearish rejection on EurUsd and then simply more bullish movement.
Weekly market structure is quite clear with EurUsd still trading in an obvious rising channel and now retesting the upper resistance trendline so also from a weekly perspective a move lower is quite expected.
However I am still waiting for EurUsd to shift back to a daily bearish market because at the moment everything still looks very bullish and if this shift happens then I also do expect a move lower on the daily timeframe.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint 📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
Bull Trend Continues as EUR Dips Remain in the 1.10 Zone!I hope this email finds you in high spirits and enjoying the exciting world of forex trading! I'm thrilled to share some fantastic news that will surely make you smile. The bull trend in the EUR/USD pair shows no signs of slowing down, with EUR dips consistently remaining in the 1.10 zone across all time frames.
But wait, there's more! I predict this upward momentum will soon push the EUR into the coveted 1.11 zone. Isn't that remarkable? It's time to gear up and seize this incredible opportunity that lies before us.
So, what does this mean for you as a Forex trader? It's simple - you should continue to long the EUR/USD pair with confidence and enthusiasm! The market conditions are favorable, and the potential for profits is too good to ignore.
By capitalizing on this bullish trend, you can reap substantial rewards. Remember, success in forex trading often comes to those who dare to take calculated risks and stay ahead of the curve. Now is the time to be bold, embrace the positive market sentiment, and make the most of this exciting run.
In conclusion, my fellow forex traders, let's celebrate this remarkable bull trend and the promising EUR/USD pair performance. It's time to take action, stay optimistic, and continue to long the EUR/USD pair with confidence. Together, we can ride this wave of success and achieve our financial goals.
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 06/07Keep in mind we are still early into the business month and business quarter and we have had some US holidays at the beginning of the week so we haven't had much volume and volatility this week so far.
But the second half of this week does seem more eventful and we should see some increase in volume and volatility up until the end of the week in my opinion.
From a macro fundamental perspective central bank monetary policy has been the main driving factor and what we have been taking advantage of for the dollar. It still remains on the bullish side as FEDs look to keep rates up in a restrictive stance and follow their methodology of rates up higher for longer to ensure inflation reaches their goal of 2% and maintains that goal of 2% for a significant period of time.
Potential to start to see some dollar strength and sells on EUR/USD.
If we see rejections from prices 1.087 or 1.089, I will be looking for sell entries. I can only see buys if we break above and hold 1.093.
EurUsd -> Faking Everybody OutHello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of EurUsd 💪
The monthly timeframe on EurUsd is pretty clear with EurUsd currently retesting massive previous support which is now turned resistance at the psychological $1.1 level.
With weekly market structure being bullish though, threre is no overall confluence at the moment so following the overall longer term picture I do expect a move lower now.
And it seems like EurUsd is finally breaking daily support towards the downside - I am then just waiting for a clean retest and bearish confirmation before I then do expect a daily move lower.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint 📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 05/07Yesterday was the fourth of July and a US bank holiday, which explains the abysmal volume during the New York session. Hopefully, we get some more convincing price movement in the second half of the week.
My sentiment is the same as yesterday, staying out of this range we are in on the 1 hour timeframe and waiting for a break above before taking buy entries.
I honestly advise staying out until this pair gives us some indication of what direction it wants to go in. On the higher timeframe, the price is still holding bullish so that's all I'll be looking for.
If you're looking for more risky buys at this range low, you could look for a change in structure to signify the start of the upwards trend. See like below:
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 04/07I took a long weekend off to relax with my highlight being a horse ride on the beach, but now I'm back and ready to trade. And quite glad about the break too because the price action at the end of last week and yesterday looked terrible.
First things first, as we are starting out the new business month and quarter it's good to identify the new important price points of interest and liquidity zones alongside the fundamental sentiment that is holding the most weight.
On the weekly chart, we see the price has been choppy but still maintains a bullish structure and is reacting quite well to weekly supports and resistances created. It gives us insight into potential areas to look for higher probability buys and sells. All while maintaining strength in the Euro over the Dollar.
I'm personally looking for more buys. But, I would only be entering above the 1.093 price point of interest. As price has been struggling to break this resistance even with all the bad US data that has been released. This ranging price action is probably due to last week being the end of the month and the end of Q2. However, if at the start of this month/quarter EUR/USD wants to create a larger pullback, which won't be out of the ordinary, I will adapt my analysis.
Ellison EUR/USD Morning Analysis 28/06Buys yesterday turned out great and with EUR/USD maintaining the bullish structure we shall continue to look for buy opportunities.
I'll be looking for buys with continuations above the 1.096 price level or at pullbacks to the 1.093 price point of interest.
I couldn't see sells unless we get a break below 1.089.
Noticeable news this week:
The ECB Banking forum spread over the week.
Thursday - US jobless claims and US Quarterly GDP.
Friday - Lots of European and US data.
The sentiment I have seen so far from the ECB Banking forum is that they want to remain hawkish. And with the Dollar currently dropping in value from highs after pausing its biggest rate hike cycle in history, a continuation of EUR/USD buys will be my main goal. At least until something changes fundamentally.
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 27/06Continuing on from yesterday's analysis, I would be looking for more buys above 1.093 and 1.096.
We have been creating a steady bullish structural wave on the 1h timeframe and I expect for it to be maintained.
Price has been messy and quite slow, but I'm putting that down to the news we have coming up this week. I'd like to get my trades done and out of the way before it all hits.
Noticeable news this week:
The ECB Banking forum spread over the week.
Today - US consumer confidence.
Thursday - US jobless claims and US Quarterly GDP.
Friday - Lots of European and US data.
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 26/06This week I have travelled to the west coast of France, with just my laptop and a rucksack. I'll be working here like usual, I love the freedom this job offers me.
This week I am looking to continue the current medium-term bullish trend on EUR/USD, with buys from a pullback to 1.087 or a continuation above 1.093.
I aim to ride continued buys after our very short and quick bearish correction towards the end of last week.
We have some noticeable news this week:
The ECB Banking forum spread over the week.
Tuesday - US consumer confidence.
Thursday - US jobless claims and US Quarterly GDP.
Friday - Lots of European and US data.
At first glance, I'm not too fond of the week ahead. Because of the news I highlighted above and this week being the last week of the second quarter of the year.
Trading Setup EURUSD Sell Indications on H4 Trading Setup EURUSD Sell Indications
Entry Levels: 1.09986-1.10726
Stop Loss: 1.11326
Take Profit: 1.07539
Take Profit: 1.06370
Take Profit: 1.05000
Here is the proper setup with many confirmations, so just set price alert on your chart and also make sure your own analysis.
The main point when open up trades;
Main points when open trade;
1. 1:3 risk reward ratio is best
2. Stop loss should be placed
3. When markets give you the directions regarding candlestick then open trade
4. Confirmations candle must be the movements points of markets so must follow the points
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 23/06I would personally be looking for buys at my 1.09 and 1.093 key price zones. 1.09 looks better to me as a double bottom would be the preferred situation and it is a large psychological level too.
Since the beginning of June, Dollar has been remaining soft and has been pushing down from 104.5 to 102. I'm looking to temporarily continue the dollar bearish sentiment in the medium term, with targets at 101.2. This translates to being bullish on EUR/USD.
Fundamentals
Yesterday we had initial jobless claims, which came out the same as last week's revised number 264k. Jobless claims have been increasing which indicates a further softening of the labour market.
Today we have US PMI data coming out and of course it's expected to rise. It never holds as much weight in the markets as Consumer inflation but it will be interesting to see how inflation is acting in the services sector.
There are a few European and US representatives speaking today that I will be watching, they may cause a small amount of market volatility, but unless they say something new or shocking I doubt they will have any hold.
EurUsd -> Perfectly Playing OutHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis.
On the weekly timeframe you can see that EurUsd just recently perfectly retested and already rejected the quite nice bullish trendline of the weekly parallel rising channel.
You can also see that the next weekly resistance is at the $1.12 level where we previous had strong weekly structure and also a resistance trendline so I simply do expect another push to retest the resistance before I then do expect a short term drop.
On the daily timeframe you can see that after EurUsd perfectly broke above the resistance at the $1.078 level, we had a quite nicely rally towards the upside and EurUsd is now retesting resistance so I am just waiting for a bullish breakout and then I do expect another push higher to retest the next weekly resistance.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analaysis 22/06Continued buys from 1.096 or 1.093.
We look for a continuation of buys after yesterday's analysis.
We saw a significant breakout of the slow bearish correction we were in with new intraday highs created. Today I will be looking for corrections to the levels I've mentioned above for further buy opportunities.
Fundamentals
Jerome Powell's speech that came out yesterday happened to be a script that was already reported and the sentiment was very passive, so it did not significantly impact the market. I expect that the bullish move came from an expectation he may make some hawkish remarks and then when it came out lacklustre, the dollar remained on its descent.
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 21/06We understand that there has been a slow and steadier start to the week with a lack of economic events, coming off a US bank holiday and winding down from the second quarter.
On the higher timeframe, EUR/USD is approaching the top of a range and I'm expecting some bearish pressure when we get there. Currently, price is in a slow pullback but still presenting bullish price action. For now, I will be looking for further buys to push higher towards 1.104 before I start to look for buyer's exhaustion and look for potential sells.
I see potential buys above 1.093, 1.096 and 1.0985 key price points.
Fundamentals
Yesterday we had optimistic housing data which caused a small amount of Dollar bullishness, pushing EUR/USD further bearish.
Today we have Jerome Powell delivering his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House of financial affairs committee. It's expected he's going to give a relatively slow and steady approach as we know inflation has been trending down, the terminal interest rate is higher than the CPI level and we can see that the labour market is still relatively tight and strong.
Other than that, not much else going on regarding financial events that impact EUR/USD.
EURUSD SELLS INCOMINGSticking to the basics of trading:
The market stalled making a resistance zone for the buyers. Thus showing early selling pressure.
The next area the market can possibly bounce from is at the 0.08500 mark. This mark would be a good area for buys continue the higher timeframe trend.
For anyone going into the london session can use the 4H timeframe to see that price has potential to retest this level and carry more volume to the downside.
However, BIG Reminder!
The market can do what it wants, so beware that buys are still in play as the overall defining trend is FX:EURUSD bullish for the buyers.
Bullish on EURUSDCurrently EUR/USD is having a slight retracement after all that buying pressure. A strong supply level has turned into a demand level showing bullish signs... I am waiting for a retest into this demand zone and strong bullish price action/MA cross in order to enter. Additional confluence will be this trendline break. I have my TP at the last strong supply zone. My SL will be below the last higher low with an additional 20 or so pips for some breathing room! Let me know what you think! Trade safe and manage risk!
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 20/06There are no new events from a reactive standpoint or headlines and minimal change in price on EUR/USD. So I have the same analysis, sentiment, focus points and trade ideas as my previous morning analysis.
Fundamental Lesson - Consumer Price Index
Key points:
- Disinflation in Core CPI and headline reading.
- FED 'skips' rate hike in June FOMC meeting and retains data dependent.
- FED projects inflation to remain stubborn above 2% until 2025.
- FED projects Unemployment Rate to be 4.1% by the end of 2023.
- Fed projects 2 additional basis point rate hikes to come.
On June 13th, the CPI got released showing disinflation in the year-over-year readings. This led to the FED developing a "skip, not a pause" narrative regarding the US monetary policy, as any more interest rate increases would seem excessive given that the current interest rate seems to be working in bringing down Inflation.
The year-over-year CPI decreased from 4.9% to 4%, while the Core Inflation remained stubborn and only decreased from 5.5% to 5.3%. Core CPI is however more significant as it removes the volatility of energy prices, food prices and financial investments from the calculation, and gives a deeper look into the Economic position of a country
Historically, inflation has decreased significantly once the Fed Funds Rate exceeds CPI. Currently, the FFR is above CPI and almost above Core CPI. They have now almost reached this first checkpoint but this potentially leaves the need for another rate hike. The Fed can now take its time and observe how the data react to prior rate hikes before making any descisions.
The Fed projected the Fed Funds Rate to be 5.6% by the end of 2023, signaling 2 more 25 basis point rate hikes by the end of the year.