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Eurusddaily

Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 27/06Continuing on from yesterday's analysis, I would be looking for more buys above 1.093 and 1.096. We have been creating a steady bullish structural wave on the 1h timeframe and I expect for it to be maintained. Price has been messy and quite slow, but I'm putting that down to the news we have coming up this week. I'd like to get my trades done and out of the way before it all hits. Noticeable news this week: The ECB Banking forum spread over the week. Today - US consumer confidence. Thursday - US jobless claims and US Quarterly GDP. Friday - Lots of European and US data.
Long
by EllisonCapital
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 26/06This week I have travelled to the west coast of France, with just my laptop and a rucksack. I'll be working here like usual, I love the freedom this job offers me. This week I am looking to continue the current medium-term bullish trend on EUR/USD, with buys from a pullback to 1.087 or a continuation above 1.093. I aim to ride continued buys after our very short and quick bearish correction towards the end of last week. We have some noticeable news this week: The ECB Banking forum spread over the week. Tuesday - US consumer confidence. Thursday - US jobless claims and US Quarterly GDP. Friday - Lots of European and US data. At first glance, I'm not too fond of the week ahead. Because of the news I highlighted above and this week being the last week of the second quarter of the year.
Long
by EllisonCapital
8
Trading Setup EURUSD Sell Indications on H4 Trading Setup EURUSD Sell Indications Entry Levels: 1.09986-1.10726 Stop Loss: 1.11326 Take Profit: 1.07539 Take Profit: 1.06370 Take Profit: 1.05000 Here is the proper setup with many confirmations, so just set price alert on your chart and also make sure your own analysis. The main point when open up trades; Main points when open trade; 1. 1:3 risk reward ratio is best 2. Stop loss should be placed 3. When markets give you the directions regarding candlestick then open trade 4. Confirmations candle must be the movements points of markets so must follow the points
Long
by Bloom_Forex_Official
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 23/06I would personally be looking for buys at my 1.09 and 1.093 key price zones. 1.09 looks better to me as a double bottom would be the preferred situation and it is a large psychological level too. Since the beginning of June, Dollar has been remaining soft and has been pushing down from 104.5 to 102. I'm looking to temporarily continue the dollar bearish sentiment in the medium term, with targets at 101.2. This translates to being bullish on EUR/USD. Fundamentals Yesterday we had initial jobless claims, which came out the same as last week's revised number 264k. Jobless claims have been increasing which indicates a further softening of the labour market. Today we have US PMI data coming out and of course it's expected to rise. It never holds as much weight in the markets as Consumer inflation but it will be interesting to see how inflation is acting in the services sector. There are a few European and US representatives speaking today that I will be watching, they may cause a small amount of market volatility, but unless they say something new or shocking I doubt they will have any hold.
Long
by EllisonCapital
4
EurUsd -> Perfectly Playing OutHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis. On the weekly timeframe you can see that EurUsd just recently perfectly retested and already rejected the quite nice bullish trendline of the weekly parallel rising channel. You can also see that the next weekly resistance is at the $1.12 level where we previous had strong weekly structure and also a resistance trendline so I simply do expect another push to retest the resistance before I then do expect a short term drop. On the daily timeframe you can see that after EurUsd perfectly broke above the resistance at the $1.078 level, we had a quite nicely rally towards the upside and EurUsd is now retesting resistance so I am just waiting for a bullish breakout and then I do expect another push higher to retest the next weekly resistance. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Long
by basictradingtv
37
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analaysis 22/06Continued buys from 1.096 or 1.093. We look for a continuation of buys after yesterday's analysis. We saw a significant breakout of the slow bearish correction we were in with new intraday highs created. Today I will be looking for corrections to the levels I've mentioned above for further buy opportunities. Fundamentals Jerome Powell's speech that came out yesterday happened to be a script that was already reported and the sentiment was very passive, so it did not significantly impact the market. I expect that the bullish move came from an expectation he may make some hawkish remarks and then when it came out lacklustre, the dollar remained on its descent.
Long
by EllisonCapital
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 21/06We understand that there has been a slow and steadier start to the week with a lack of economic events, coming off a US bank holiday and winding down from the second quarter. On the higher timeframe, EUR/USD is approaching the top of a range and I'm expecting some bearish pressure when we get there. Currently, price is in a slow pullback but still presenting bullish price action. For now, I will be looking for further buys to push higher towards 1.104 before I start to look for buyer's exhaustion and look for potential sells. I see potential buys above 1.093, 1.096 and 1.0985 key price points. Fundamentals Yesterday we had optimistic housing data which caused a small amount of Dollar bullishness, pushing EUR/USD further bearish. Today we have Jerome Powell delivering his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House of financial affairs committee. It's expected he's going to give a relatively slow and steady approach as we know inflation has been trending down, the terminal interest rate is higher than the CPI level and we can see that the labour market is still relatively tight and strong. Other than that, not much else going on regarding financial events that impact EUR/USD.
Long
by EllisonCapital
EURUSD SELLS INCOMINGSticking to the basics of trading: The market stalled making a resistance zone for the buyers. Thus showing early selling pressure. The next area the market can possibly bounce from is at the 0.08500 mark. This mark would be a good area for buys continue the higher timeframe trend. For anyone going into the london session can use the 4H timeframe to see that price has potential to retest this level and carry more volume to the downside. However, BIG Reminder! The market can do what it wants, so beware that buys are still in play as the overall defining trend is FX:EURUSD bullish for the buyers.
by thespiant7
1
Bullish on EURUSDCurrently EUR/USD is having a slight retracement after all that buying pressure. A strong supply level has turned into a demand level showing bullish signs... I am waiting for a retest into this demand zone and strong bullish price action/MA cross in order to enter. Additional confluence will be this trendline break. I have my TP at the last strong supply zone. My SL will be below the last higher low with an additional 20 or so pips for some breathing room! Let me know what you think! Trade safe and manage risk!
Long
by USBullsBears
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 20/06There are no new events from a reactive standpoint or headlines and minimal change in price on EUR/USD. So I have the same analysis, sentiment, focus points and trade ideas as my previous morning analysis. Fundamental Lesson - Consumer Price Index Key points: - Disinflation in Core CPI and headline reading. - FED 'skips' rate hike in June FOMC meeting and retains data dependent. - FED projects inflation to remain stubborn above 2% until 2025. - FED projects Unemployment Rate to be 4.1% by the end of 2023. - Fed projects 2 additional basis point rate hikes to come. On June 13th, the CPI got released showing disinflation in the year-over-year readings. This led to the FED developing a "skip, not a pause" narrative regarding the US monetary policy, as any more interest rate increases would seem excessive given that the current interest rate seems to be working in bringing down Inflation. The year-over-year CPI decreased from 4.9% to 4%, while the Core Inflation remained stubborn and only decreased from 5.5% to 5.3%. Core CPI is however more significant as it removes the volatility of energy prices, food prices and financial investments from the calculation, and gives a deeper look into the Economic position of a country Historically, inflation has decreased significantly once the Fed Funds Rate exceeds CPI. Currently, the FFR is above CPI and almost above Core CPI. They have now almost reached this first checkpoint but this potentially leaves the need for another rate hike. The Fed can now take its time and observe how the data react to prior rate hikes before making any descisions. The Fed projected the Fed Funds Rate to be 5.6% by the end of 2023, signaling 2 more 25 basis point rate hikes by the end of the year.
Long
by EllisonCapital
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 19/06This week I am looking to continue with the bullish bias that was confirmed at the end of last week, with buys above the current highs at 1.096 or waiting for pullbacks to take buys at 1.087. EUR/USD is showing an increased probability that we could at least trend back into the higher timeframe range highs at 1.1062 as long as the dollar still remains softer and we are holding this current bullish price action structure that is in play currently. We are still having the dollar weakness sentiment hold weight in the short term as the DXY ranges in its current daily range.
Long
by EllisonCapital
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 15/06Yesterday we maintained bullish structure all day until we saw rejections with the release of FOMC, even though the news was expected and already priced in by the market. Today we have the ECB's rate decision and the US jobless claims data at quite similar times. I will personally avoid making any trades until both of these events have passed and the market has settled. I would only be looking for any further buys above 1.087. Otherwise, my general consensus is now sells. If we fail to break the current high and start to turn more bearish, then i believe the current bullish pullback on the overall bearish trend may be over. Fundamental analysis: FOMC recap -Predicted a no rate change which was already priced in by the market. -Copy and paste of the previous two FOMC statements too -No new or exciting comments made by Jerome Powell in his speech. -With interest rates now becoming less important for medium term, focus is now on data reports for the potential improvement of the economy. Thoughts: We predicted that the Fed meetings may be more dull and back to 'normal conditions' as the FED have already front loaded interest rate hikes. (This has been the most aggressive rate hike cycle in history and we as traders got to be a part of it). They can now take a slower meeting by meeting approach. This means they can watch data and make decisions over two to three meetings rather than the pressure of having to act over one month. With inflation trending down and labour market data tight, the FED can take their time with decisions. Remember central banks want market stability, to keep volatility down and give minimal signals as they hold a lot of market influence. The covid money pumping phase and the 2022 rate hike cylce were both unique central bank events related to these crisis and combatting inflation. DXY is still holding around 103 as markets expect higher US interest rates for longer than before.
Short
by EllisonCapital
2
EURUSD: Fall or rise focus here This is its 1h chart. It can be clearly seen that it has gone through a downward trend channel in the early stage. It has recently stepped out of this channel and built a small bottom. It is currently testing the first resistance and whether it can convert the resistance to support. is the most important thing right now. To judge it, in addition to analyzing its own trend, we also need to analyze it in combination with the trend of DXY. In EURUSD's 1h chart, it is currently stepping back to MA30, but the overall pattern is still more advantageous for bears. The lower MA60 is near 1.070, and the support here will be relatively more effective. In the 1h chart of DXY, MA30 has just been broken, and MA60 is near 103.8. If it cannot break through by then, it will fall back again, confirming the support of MA20. On the 1D chart, the strong support of DXY is around 102.4, and the resistance is 103.85. If it breaks through, the top can reach around 105.6. It can be inferred that EURUSD will still be under pressure at 1.088 with a high probability. Of course, to reach 1.088, the process of turning the current resistance into support must first be completed. In the near future, focus on the support around 1.073-1.069. Resistance near 1.08-1.09. If it falls below the support, there is a certain probability that the bottom will be around 1.048 (DXY105.6)
Short
by EagleEyeStrategy
EurUsd -> Reversal CompletedHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis. On the weekly timeframe you can see that EurUsd just recently perfectly retested and is now rejecting a quite strong bullish trendline exactly at the $1.07 level. You can also see that weekly market structure and moving averages are bullish, EurUsd also just once again retested support at the $1.065 level so from a weekly perspective I simply do expect more continuation towards the upside from here. On the daily timeframe you can see that last week's analysis which is linked below perfectly played out and I am now just waiting for a retest of the neckline of the double bottom at the $1.077 level before I then do expect another impulse towards the upside. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Long
by basictradingtv
27
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 14/06With the news today, I'm expecting EUR/USD to be indecisive but continue its bullishness until the news. Right now we are still holding pullback structure on the higher timeframe and even though price was choppy yesterday we still saw buyers printing intraday highs. I would be looking for buys at the same price sensitivity areas at a pullback of 1.076 or above 1.079. But then I would anticipate resistance at the liquidity zone above towards the end of the day as it may just be price set ups for the FOMC news later in the day. Fundamental analysis SHORT VERSION: - Markets have been expecting a skip/pause on rate hikes for June meeting - Unchanged rates will not hold much weight as it has already been priced into market - Main focus of this FOMC is if there is a surprise rate hike or a strong sentiment in Powell's speech afterwards. LONGER VERSION: I wrote yesterday about the weight US rate decisions have been having on the markets ever since the pandemic. What we have been seeing over the last 3-6 months is a lot of the rate hike cycles being priced into the market and also a lot of speculation about when rate hike cuts will come back into the scene. The main expectation for today is for the FED to pause or skip the month of June, leaving interest rates unchanged. This has already been priced in and won't lead to a move if it happens. This means we may see more of a buy the rumour and sell the news type play on Dollar and see a reaction to a surprise rate hike or rate cut (with a cut being highly unlikely). More importantly, I'm going to listen to the sentiment of Powell's statement he releases afterwards.
Long
by EllisonCapital
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 13/06With key news being released today that will ultimately decide the direction of Dollar pairs, I will be sitting and watching until it is released. That being said, Yesterdays buy predictions have come along nicely overnight but not in my trading session, unfortunately. My main bias is undecided today, with buys above the current range at 1.079 or sells below 1.073. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: We had a relatively slow and steady Monday and start to the week due to markets being more focused on the US inflation data today and the upcoming federal reserve and ECB interest rate decisions this week. We understand how much central banking monetary policy has had an effect on the market, whether it was through the stimulus phase through lockdowns or of course changing their policy stance to combat rising inflation, thus we should expect that there is a large weight on its outcome. HOW THIS AFFECTS EUR/USD: We are currently in secondary phases of market structure in Dollar pairs, seeing consolidations and pullbacks on the higher timeframe. The first catalyst directly on EUR/USD is going to be US CPI today. Now the expected inflation is already forecasting generous data, with inflation expected to drop from 4.9% to 4.1%. If we can meet these optimistic expectations then the market may start to price in a potential pivot in the interest rate hiking cycle. This would result in Dollar weakness and EUR/USD STRENGTH However, if inflation is still elevated. It shows the Fed has more work to do to recover the economy, with focus on a potential 25 base point interest hike later this week. Leading to Dollar bullishness and EUR/USD WEAKNESS I understand if this may be a slightly long read for your morning, but the lesson is an important one and in my opinion, should be the only focus of traders this week. Well done if you got through it.
by EllisonCapital
Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 12/06Continuing on from last week I am maintaining the forecast of buys from 1.076 and 1.079, expecting the temporary pullback phase on EU to continue a little higher. With sells expected at 1.084 or below 1.07. The theme of last week was watching Dollar start to show some exhaustion at key price sensitivity area of 104.5. On the higher timeframe, the DXY is on a more bullish bias, but secondary phase pullbacks/corrections are not out of the ordinary. We already had a very nice bullish rally on DXY from 101 price to break above a 30-day range and print higher highs on the intraday and extending 3.5% to 104.5. Last week US economic data was not as optimistic as expected, showing signs of a weakening US economy and feeling the pressure of a higher interest rate environment, coupled with macro inflation being elevated too. This all translates to a temporary pullback structure on the EUR/USD pair. Notable news this week: Tuesday - US CPI Wednesday - US PPI, FOMC interest rate decision Thursday - ECB interest rate decision, US jobless claims
Long
by EllisonCapital
EUR/USD Morning analysis 09/06US jobless claims data come out poor, the dollar gives us a pullback from a key price point at around 104.5 and has started to print a new intraday low in its pullback structure. This has correlated with the bad data, having EUR/USD close at the end of yesterday back above 1.076 and the dollar digging below the price sensitivity area at 103.4. No significant news for the remainder of the week. Looking for continuations of this dollar weakness sentiment. Buys at 1.076 or on a break above 1.079. Can't see any sells unless the price drops below 1.07.
Long
by EllisonCapital
1
EURUSD: Anticipating Non-farm!EUR/USD advances toward 1.0750 amid US debt deal optimism Fundamental technical analysis: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to be present in the middle. The average price is still declining, with the 34 EMA and 89 EMA staying steady, creating a consistent downtrend over a period of time. Additionally, the flag pattern has begun to take shape. Market overview: On Friday, EUR/USD started to rise after a four-day decline that resulted in the pair reaching its lowest level in over two months near 1.0700. The near-term technical outlook does not yet show a bullish inclination in the short term, and the next directional move may be influenced by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data from the US later in the day. The US Dollar (USD) was boosted on Thursday by positive macroeconomic data releases from the US, which revived expectations for one more Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase in June. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the first-quarter annualized Gross Domestic Product growth to 1.3% from 1.15 in the initial estimate, and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in below the market expectation of 245,000 at 229,000.
Short
by Sphyn-Trader
7
EURUSD Trading Idea as per Demand and Supply ZoneAs per the perilous trading setup was found on the 4 Hours time frame. Euro is now at very important level 1.073 to 1.075 in case the US Dollar Index will bearish then and will touch the 103.50 to 103 Zone then the EURUSD will gain the strength and moved upward to 1.08 to 1.09 major level. But as per the dollar index last movements and trend changed from bearish to bullish and moved from 99 to 104 then the EURUSD will touch their lower low (Demand Zone) of 1.05, so keep in mind that the trades will be open after the major key level breakout of 1.075 in case of bullish while 1.070 in bearish then open Sell trade with 40 to 50 pips Stop Loss and the take profit should be 100 to 150 pips.
Long
by Bloom_Forex_Official