Eurusdmonthly
EUR/USD Monthly Outlook - is the bullish run over?EUR/USD has seen a significant climb over the past few weeks after it broke to the upside from a descending weekly trend channel. Price has now been testing the monthly sloping resistance zone created from the highs back in May 2008, November 2009, June 2011, April 2014 and February 2018. Over the last two weeks, a tweezer top formation has been created on the weekly timeframe which indicates at least some sellers coming into the market. With the precedent set from the previous bounces, we are expecting at least a bearish pullback from this zone down to 1.147. If price continues to respect the monthly channel we could see price return back ultimately to the lows of 1.07. However, if weakness in the USD persists and price on EUR/USD continues to the upside, closing above the monthly channel, this analysis would be invalidated and a new scenario would need to be thought through.
EURUSD TDN3 breakdown validI know it is hard to understand this if you do not study the "The New Science. Technical Analysis" (1994) of T. DeMark and "Methods of Wall Street Master "(1991) of V. Sperandeo on trends and trendlines . But price is projected to drop to 2000 lows with retest of the last minor demand line which we are about to break (with its consequent retest that is likely to follow). It is sad that most of modern traders still live before 1990s, engaging in shamanism, art and intuition (and worst, imposing their subjective art on others) when there are proven scientific methods of price prediction. I am not the best new science analyst but that is what I identified and is pretty obvious.
Top Absolute Correlation
1 EURUSD - USDX -96.8%
2 EURUSD - USDPLN -95.8%
3 EURUSD - USDCZK -92.7%
4 EURUSD - EURSGD 88.9%
5 EURUSD - EURCHF 86.7%
6 EURUSD - USDSGD -81.6%
7 EURUSD - USDHUF -79.9%
8 EURUSD - EURJPY 78.7%
9 EURUSD - EURCAD 74.7%
10 EURUSD - HK50 70.5%
EUR/USD long termThe situation on the Eurodollar market has not changed significantly, despite the recent volatility. All the time stuck in extended trading sideways around the level of 1.12, which is around 61.8% fibo increases the level of 0.8231 - 1.6038. However, there is thing I would especially like to draw attention. Looking at the graph interval of one month, we note that Eurodollar located in a triangle formation. With this in mind, and that this formation was preceded by strong declines, it seems that it should come to the bottom of issue. However, the upper limit is in the vicinity of 1,14-1,15, which is not deleted completely on the demand side. In addition, we can conclude that the last three months were characterized by the smallest range of fluctuation in the history of this currency pair. which may suggest that we are in the last phase. Breaking bottom may be preceded by increases in the level around 1.1427. Then breaking through the lower supply constraints, will open the way towards 1,0730-1,08. (Trend line growth led to the level of 0.8231).
The above outline of the situation as regards the very long term. However, it has now consider what draws a Eurodollar future, in the context of the next months. This technical arrangement would be in line with the fundamental situation, which implies a further weakening of the euro against the dollar. (Further increases in US interest rates and a possible expansion of the program QE by the ECB).