EURUSDDespite the usual year-end cooling, the dollar's strength, underpinned by US macro performance and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, is expected to continue. The dollar remains unaffected by the Treasury sell-off and rising long-term yield curve. High US interest rates and a disorganized rise in US yields are seen as factors that could further strengthen the dollar.
Factors that could lead to a weaker dollar include weaker US macro data, a slowing US economy or a recession in the euro zone. However, these potential weaknesses are not expected to result from a reassessment of China's or Europe's growth outlook. High US interest rates are likely to disrupt the financial sector, which will initially boost the dollar due to tighter dollar funding conditions.
