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Eurusdoutlook

EURUSD - Analysis and Potential Setups (Intraday- 12.02.25)Overall Trend & Context: The pair is in an overall downtrend on the higher time frames and we are now waiting for the lower time frames to shift in accordance with the narrative. Technical Findings: Price is at a daily level of supply (as well as refined zones down to the 15m & 5m) LTF oversold conditions. We could still see further upward movement so will wait for either a break at 1.03650 or for our OANDA:GBPUSD trade to run into profits (or both). Potential Scenarios: For now I will only be considering shorts. Risk accordingly and be safe for CPI today.
Short
by Apexfx_Alpha
EURUSD bearish below 1.0400 levelThe EURUSD currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 1.0400, which is 25th Feb swing high. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 1.0400 level could target the downside support at 1.0260 followed by the 1.0210 and 1.0180 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above the 1.0400 resistance and a daily close above that level could trigger further rallies higher and a retest of the 1.0440 resistance level followed by 1.0500 and 1.0560. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
EUR/USD Range-Bound but Ready to Break Higher? Since the beginning of the year, EUR/USD has been trading within a range, fluctuating between 1.0200 and 1.0440, aside from a few temporary spikes in both directions. While the overall trend remains bearish, I anticipate a relief rally in the near future, which could push the price toward the 1.0650–1.0700 zone in the medium term. In the short term, the market remains stable, with a strong support base forming around 1.0200. Given this setup, my bias is bullish, and I’m looking to buy dips, targeting 1.0500 as the first key resistance level.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
EUR.USD Longs from 1.02600My EU long idea is based on the strong bullish pressure seen after price filled last week’s gap. I’ll be looking for buying opportunities once price mitigates my 11-hour demand zone near the bottom. However, I’ll remain cautious since this area has already been mitigated in last week’s forecast. If price pushes higher instead, I expect it to mitigate the 6-hour supply zone, which originated from a Break of Structure (BOS) and was reinforced by a Change of Character (CHOCH). From there, potential short opportunities could arise around 1.03800 for a move back down. Confluences for EU Buys: - EU has been very bullish, making this a pro-trend setup. - The market structure remains strong, forming higher highs and higher lows. - There is significant liquidity to the upside along with well-defined supply zones. - The clean 11-hour demand zone previously caused an impulsive move, making it a strong area of interest. Note: If price breaks below the 11-hour demand zone, I expect EU to turn bearish for a short period. Have a great trading week!
Long
by Hassan_fx
EURUSD Selling OpportunitiesDaily swing Structure = Bearish Daily Internal Structure = Bearish Narrative We are pro-trend which means sell EURUSD. All structures are in alignment. 4Hrs Swing structure = Bullish Internal Structure = Bearish What we can observe is that daily swing, daily internal and 4hrs internal are all in alignment. We now know that the demand zones created as the market was in the pullback phase are reaction points and that the supply zones should hold if the bearish internal trend is to hold. Given the 2 facts, we should continue selling Targeting the internal weak low as the low hanging fruit. Also, it is important to note that we are creating some sorta supply chain, which further cements idea of a strong selling pressure coming into the market. So any pullback into the marked supply orderblock should give us a chance for entry.
Short
by DagemFxStudio
EUR/USD Faces a New Neutral MovementThe latest movements in the EUR/USD pair have been highly indecisive in the short term, with strength constantly shifting between the U.S. dollar and the euro. This is due to the increasingly neutral stance of both currencies, fueled by the ongoing tariff-related turmoil from the White House. Initially, these policies significantly strengthened the U.S. dollar, but confidence in the euro has gradually returned as the market begins to view Trump’s approach as a negotiation tactic rather than a policy with long-term economic consequences. As a result, short-term dollar weakness has become evident, and the DXY index, which tracks dollar strength, has already accumulated a decline of over 2% in the past three trading sessions. Neutrality Increases At the moment, EUR/USD has been testing the key barrier at 1.04061 , which aligns with the 50-period moving average and the Ichimoku cloud resistance in the short term. Additionally, the TRIX indicator line has oscillated toward the neutral 0 level , reflecting a state of equilibrium in the average of recent market movements. This key barrier and the neutrality observed in the TRIX suggest that the pair remains firmly in a neutral stance in the short term. As long as the price does not break away from the 1.04061 zone , it is unlikely that a clear trend will emerge in EUR/USD. Key Levels: 1.05994: The most important resistance level in the short term, coinciding with the previous December highs. A breakout above this level would strengthen bullish momentum and increase the probability of a larger uptrend formation. 1.02290: A critical support level, marking the lowest point reached by the pair in the last two months. A bearish break below this level could restart the downtrend that had been in place since September 2024. As a reminder, if price movements continue hovering around the 1.04061 barrier, the current sideways range may still have room to extend further. By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
1
EURUSD - gap is filled, what’s next? Buys? Sells?Here is our in-depth view and update on EURUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels . Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at EURUSD from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame . Now the main focus everyone has is the “ GAP ”. Yes the gap has been filled but sellers who tried to take advantage of it, have experienced drawdown today. EURUSD still has a chance to dig deeper into that gap potentially giving us better entries OR breaking to the upside. So here are the possible scenarios on EURUSD we have pre-planned for the following days . Scenario 1: BUYS at the break of 1.04334 - We broke above 1.04334. With the break of this level we can expect a possible move towards the upside. Even though we are extremely bearish on EURUSD for quite some time, short-term TVC:DXY weakness can cause the pair to see possible higher levels. Scenario 2: SELLS - We dug deeper into the “gap price” or we stayed below roughly 1.03462. With sells we have several possible entries. We can expect a deeper dig to the upside potentially giving us better entries. On the other hand, if we don’t experience that, and stay below 1.03462 we can expect more sells to come. KEY NOTES - EURUSD is overall still bearish. - DXY (USD) experiencing short-term bears. - Breaking above 1.04334 would result in more upside. - Staying below the gap fill, would result in sells. - Possible deeper digs to the upside before the sell off. Happy trading! FxPocket
by FxPocket
1
WEEKLY RECAP - Week 1, 2025The most important thing to reflect on each week is NOT your profit and loss balance. Instead, reflect on these three questions: - Did I follow my core habits for success? - Am I ready to let my attachments from last week go? - Am I focusing on this current moment, or a destination I'm trying to reach? I won't put a whole lot of words here. It's all in the video, but here are the three setups from last week, and here is my notion journal so you can follow along. USDJPY EURUSD EURUSD Notion Journal Enjoy the ride, -Gio
by elevatedinvestor
EURUSD Potential Shorts (Technical Analysis)Overall Context: The dollar's been flexing its muscles lately, and EURUSD is feeling the pressure. We saw some crazy gaps when the markets opened on Monday morning – a sign of shaky liquidity, which usually snaps back. But with the trade war rumbling on, who knows? As traders, we've got to stay prepared, expecting a correction but ready with our contingency plans if it doesn't happen. Let's dive in - Technical Outlook: Failure of the previous accumulation cycle - Classic Wyckoff stuff, cycles run their course. A re-distribution is likely on the horizon, especially if the lower timeframes agree with the bigger picture. (Fractally, we need to see the LTF accumulation fail and for distribution to align with the HTF sentiment and cycle). Price has broken to the downside and has created multiple lower highs. Trading below the 200 EMA and has recently tested and bounced of the 50 EMA (at a correlating level of supply) Keep in mind that USDJPY and EURUSD are inversely correlated and are currently in line - While the inverse correlation is a significant factor, it's not the only thing that influences these currency pairs. Interest rates, economic data, and global events can also play a role and we know how that story looks at present so this is just additional confluence for us. Potential Scenarios & Probabilities: Scenario 1 (High Probability) - Price will pull back into the supply and drop from there. Scenario 2 (Medium Probability) - Price will continue to plummet and break structure to the downside. Trading Considerations: If price fills the gap and reaches supply levels above, you should wait for bearish confirmations to get involved. If price drops past the previous low, identify new levels of supply and trade accordingly. (I'll try to post an update if this happens). Final Notes: Strong technical picture but this week has a lot of upcoming economic events (NFP, anyone?). With the Tariffs imposed so close to the NFP release one can only assume there will be a power play by the Trump administration which we may not see coming. All we can do for now is follow the money flow to stay in the know! Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. OANDA:EURUSD TVC:DXY FX:USDJPY
Short
by Apexfx_Alpha
4
EUR/USD Outlook to recover the imbalance My EU outlook for this week is similar to GU as the dollar index gapped to the upside which made pairs like GU and EU to drop down heavy. once price did so it did breach a lot of my previous demands so we have to now adapt and re adjust our analysis and forecast. So i have this demand zone that as you can see is getting reacted off of which what i drew out a. while ago which is the 8hr demand zone. I feel like this zone will hold as there is of validity. If price reacts well and manages to cover that gap i will then look to short inside the 1hr supply zone but after finding of course LTF confirmation. COnfluences for EU Buys are as follows: - The price gap has left a significant imbalance that needs to be filled. - Price is currently in a 8-hour demand zone that previously caused a Break of Structure (BOS), making it a valid POI. - There is a large pool of liquidity to the upside that needs to be taken. - The setup aligns well with the DXY correlation. - For price to carry on going down it must form a correction to the upside regardless. P.S. If price decides to go lower then we might be in a bearish trend temporarily and will have to look for a new near by supply to capitilise on a shift of trend to the downside. Thats if this 8hr demand doesn't hold.
Long
by Hassan_fx
ECB Delivers Another 25 bp CutThe ECB (European Central Bank) continued policy normalisation today, with another 25 basis points (bps) worth of cuts across all three benchmark rates. This marks the fourth consecutive rate reduction, bringing the Deposit Facility Rate, the Refinancing Rate, and the Marginal Lending Facility Rate to 2.75%, 2.90%, and 3.15%, respectively. Frankly, I was not expecting fireworks from this week’s policy meeting. Unless I missed something, aside from Governing Council Member Robert Holzmann talking up a possible pause, most Members favoured further easing. However, one strikingly apparent fact we can garner from today’s meeting is that the ECB intends to continue lowering rates – quite a divergence from the wait-and-see approach the US Federal Reserve has adopted, and one that could weigh on the EUR/USD currency pair (euro versus the US dollar). The accompanying rate statement reiterated the central bank’s meeting-by-meeting approach and acknowledged that monetary policy remains in restrictive territory. This emphasises the possibility of further easing this year and aligns with market forecasts. As of writing, investors are pricing in another three 25 bp rate cuts, with a reduction on the table for the next meeting in March. Disinflation Process Well on Track The ECB appears content with the current progress on inflation, underscoring that the ‘disinflation process is well on track’ and that price pressures are ‘set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year’. The CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) report for December 2024 revealed an ‘expected’ uptick in the headline year-on-year (Y/Y) measure to 2.4% from 2.2% in November amid base effects; core Y/Y inflation held steady at 2.7%, and services inflation nudged higher to 4.0% from 3.9%. Economy Still Faces Headwinds Regarding GDP growth data (Gross Domestic Product), the ECB underscored that the ‘economy is still facing headwinds’ but believes a recovery will be seen over time, reinforced by ‘rising real incomes and the gradually fading effects of restrictive monetary policy’. During her press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasised that risks are ‘tilted to the downside’ for the eurozone economy and ‘is set to remain weak in the near term’. This follows GDP data showing the eurozone stagnated in Q4 24, recording 0.0% growth versus the market’s consensus of 0.1% expansion. We also saw contractions in GDP numbers from France and Germany. Consumer confidence is weighing on sentiment here, influenced by the possibility of a trade war escalation between Europe and the US. Lagarde noted: ‘Greater friction in global trade could weigh on euro area growth by dampening exports and weakening the global economy’. Downside Risks for EUR/USD; Parity Eyed I have highlighted in several posts the importance of where the EUR/USD is trading on the bigger picture. As evident from the monthly chart below, the currency pair is trending southbound and found resistance from the underside of the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at US$1.0992 in Q4 24. Subsequently, further underperformance led price action south of support from US$1.0516, currently serving as possible resistance. If this level holds ground, parity calls for attention, closely shadowed by another layer of support at US$0.9873. Meanwhile, buyers and sellers have been squaring off around the 50-day SMA at US$1.0422 on the daily chart. This is a particularly interesting timeframe, as resistance around US$1.0536-US$1.0514 also recently entered the fight. As for current movement, trading appears difficult unless you are a fan of playing ranges (potentially between the 50-day SMA and the noted resistance area). Nevertheless, a breakout beyond current resistance could be a move larger traders fade from resistance at around the US$1.06 level for three primary reasons: the liquidity (buy stops tripped) above resistance at US$1.0536-US$1.0514, and, of course, the downtrend and monthly resistance in play at US$1.0516. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Short
by FPMarkets