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Eurusdshort

EUR/USD Trade Plan – Sell Limit StrategyEUR/USD has shown signs of completing a 5-wave bullish structure on the 4H chart, with price now re-testing a key supply zone. A Sell Limit has been positioned at 1.17962, anticipating a sharp reversal back toward the order block zone. 🔍 Technical Analysis The chart shows a clear Elliott Wave formation, with wave V forming a weak new high, indicating buyer exhaustion. Price is approaching the 1.17960–1.18013 supply zone, previously unmitigated. This zone also holds an Order Block (OB) and liquidity above wave III, making it a prime area for institutional sell triggers. 📌 Entry: 1.17962 🛑 Stop Loss: 1.18113 🎯 Target Zone: 1.17122 📈 Risk–Reward: 3R – 6R - 10r potential (depending on trade management) 🧠 Fundamental Outlook The upcoming trading week is filled with market-moving events from both the US and Eurozone: 🇺🇸 Key USD Events Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri): Forecast 147K; strong print = bullish USD. Unemployment Rate: Expected at 4.1%. Powell Speech, ISM Services PMI: Will impact rate expectations and USD strength. 🇪🇺 Key EUR Events CPI Flash Estimates: Any surprise may shift ECB tone. Lagarde Speaks: Markets listening for any policy hints after soft data. 🧩 The combination of a potentially strong USD and weakened Euro fundamentals adds weight to a bearish EUR/USD outlook. 💡 Why This Setup Works Perfect Liquidity Trap: The zone is designed to trigger late buyers before reversal. Clean Risk–Reward: Defined SL with a high-probability downside path. Macro + Technical Confluence: Both align toward downside potential. Target OB: Strong institutional demand seen at 1.1712 offers a natural take-profit zone. ⚠️ Execution Guidance Enter only if price hits the Sell Limit zone cleanly. Avoid execution during red news releases. Partial TP suggested near 1.1740 (around 2R–3R) to lock early profit.
Short
by EliseLunaTraders
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 4, 2025 EURUSDEvents to pay attention to today: 12:00 EET. EUR - Producer Price Index EURUSD: On Friday, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is trading in a narrow range around 1.1760. The main currency pair is showing sluggish dynamics amid the US holiday (Independence Day). The US dollar (USD) is maintaining its recovery, triggered by better-than-expected non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for June. Data released on Thursday showed that the US economy added 147,000 new jobs, exceeding expectations of 110,000. The better-than-expected NFP data brought some relief to the US dollar, but this is unlikely to continue as the report shows that private sector hiring is losing momentum. Private employers added 74,000 jobs in June, well below the three-month average of 115,000. This scenario is unlikely to ease the position of several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, who advocated for lower interest rates at a policy meeting later this month, citing potential risks in the labour market. In the eurozone, the sharp appreciation of the euro (EUR) has raised concerns that inflation could fall below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target. According to a senior ECB official, ‘the ECB may have to make it clear that too strong a euro could be a problem, as it could cause inflation to hover below target,’ reports the Financial Times (FT). Trading recommendation: SELL 1.17700, SL 1.18000, TP 1.16900
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURUSD Bearish ideaWe are in a weekly fair value gap that we have balance and potentially collected orders to prepare for a potential drop in price. We are anticipating a quarterly shift for the month of July were we could be targeting downside liquidity that is in open float. * Fundamentals: -Interest rate differentials shows us that USD interest rate of 4.5 is higher than the interest rate EUR 2.15 which lead to the longer fundamental frame work of price correcting to the higher dollar rate to the euro. -The COT report also indicates to us that there is huge buying of Dollar by the commercials and a huge amount of selling of the EUR by commercials which can lead us to assume potential weaker dollar. *Targeting: -We are looking for the low of last month (June) to be taken out as well as even potentially reaching to the implied weekly fair value gap.
Short
by That_Guy_Trades
7
EUR/USD Short Idea Analysis EUR/USD exhibits bearish potential on the daily timeframe, with the 1.17160–1.18070 zone acting as a key resistance area for a short setup. Technical Analysis: Price Action: Price is testing the 1.17160–1.18070 resistance zone, which aligns with prior highs and a rejection area. A bearish reversal pattern (e.g., shooting star or engulfing) could confirm the short. Support/Target: Initial support at 1.1600, with a deeper target at 1.1500 if selling pressure accelerates. Indicators: RSI is nearing overbought levels (above 65), suggesting a potential reversal. MACD shows weakening bullish momentum, supporting a bearish bias. Fibonacci: The 1.17160–1.18070 zone aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior downmove, reinforcing resistance. Risks: A break above 1.1820 could invalidate the setup. Watch for ECB policy updates or unexpected US data shifts. Conclusion: The 1.17160–1.18070 resistance zone offers a compelling short opportunity for EUR/USD, backed by technical and fundamental factors. Use tight risk management due to potential volatility.
Short
by realtrademaster
1
Shorting Optimism: EUR/USD Rally vs RealityAfter the spike to 1.1640 driven by temporary ceasefire news and USD weakness, I’ve taken a short position on EUR/USD. The market priced in too much optimism too fast, and I see limited upside beyond this zone in the current macro landscape. I’m positioned for a controlled retracement back toward the 1.1460–1.1520 region. The play? Fade the overextension, follow structure, and manage from strength. Technicals: • The pair ran into a strong supply zone near 1.1640, which aligns with a previous liquidity sweep. • Momentum has slowed visibly on lower timeframes, with candles rejecting highs and wicks printing upper tails. • Daily and 4H SMAs are overstretched. The 20 SMA on H4 is accelerating upward, but RSI is near overbought and flattening. • My short entry was taken with a stop above 1.1745 and first target at 1.1540, second at 1.1500. • A potential retest of the 1.1660 zone could offer additional entries if invalidation remains intact. Fundamentals: • ECB vs Fed Divergence: The Fed holds firm on rates amid sticky inflation, while the ECB is under pressure to ease further due to weak growth. • EU Struggles: PMI data remains in contraction territory; HICP cooling to 1.7% YoY suggests little reason for tightening. • Political Instability: Germany and France both facing internal political crises — risk premia rising. • Ceasefire Priced In: EUR rally on Middle East headlines lacks depth — conflict paused, not resolved. • USD Resilience: Weak recent data aside, the USD remains a safe haven. Fed’s Powell reiterated that cuts aren’t imminent. ⚠️ Bias: Bearish as long as price trades below 1.1640. Watching how the market reacts to Fed testimony and ECB rhetoric this week. 🧠 Reminder: Don’t get emotional after vertical rallies. When everyone gets excited, I look for exhaustion. That’s where trades begin. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Short
by AR33_
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W26 D24 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W26 D24 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Daily order block ✅15' order block ✅Intraday breaks of structure ✅4H Order block 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
EURUSD: at key resistance: Will price rebound to 11300?Quick recap on EURUSD, seriously déjà vu of my previous analysis on EURUSD - once again we see the price coming towards the same resistance level. This is a level where it has struggled to break through and reversed nicely to the downside as expected. For me it's definitely one to monitor, especially for anyone considering short trades. If we start seeing signs that the price is getting rejected here: like long wicks, bearish candles, or buyers starting to lose momentum, I think we could see a move down toward the 1.11300 level. I am targeting a slight bounce like before, nothing major. But if price cleanly breaks out, that would rule out the bearish outlook and suggest even further upside will follow. This area is pretty important and could give us a better idea of where price is headed next. Just sharing my thoughts on support and resistance, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly.
Short
by TrendDiva
54
EURUSD SHORT & LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D19 Y25EURUSD SHORT & LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D19 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block rejection ✅15' order block ✅4 hour order block identified ✅Daily Order block identified 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
USD Weakness Persists: Can EUR/USD Target 1.18? The EUR/USD exchange rate has continued to strengthen, breaking through the psychological barrier of 1.1600 during the intraday session, marking the first time it has reached this level since November 2021. The pair surged to an intraday high of 1.1630, driven by the confluence of a persistently weakening US dollar and enhanced economic resilience in the Eurozone. Technically, the EUR/USD currently exhibits a robust bullish pattern. If it can sustain above the 1.1600 threshold, it is poised to test the 1.1800 resistance zone. Conversely, a false breakout followed by a retracement below 1.1500 would warrant caution, as it may signal a attenuation of bullish momentum and potential reversal risks. Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Short
by Ashbur
Today's EUR/USD Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsThe EUR/USD is trading at the upper end of its recent range, having hit an intraday high of around 1.1440 and remaining near that level. The US Dollar strengthened in the early session due to optimism about the easing of Sino-US trade tensions, but later declined as European stocks fluctuated. Technically, the daily chart shows bulls remain in control, with the 20-day SMA rising gently at 1.1330. In the short term, the pair is range-bound around the 20-day SMA, yet to confirm a bullish breakout, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs support the overall upward trend. EUR/USD buy@1.14200-1.14300 tp:1.14600-1.14900
Long
by EvanField
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W24 D10 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W24 D10 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block ✅15' order block ✅4 hour order block ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
The euro is in high - level oscillation.The euro has rebounded slightly against the US dollar, trading around 1.143 during the European session, recovering some of the losses from last week's decline from around 1.1500. Fundamentally, the US dollar weakened after taking profits from the strong non - farm payrolls data last Friday, while the hawkish remarks by European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazimir provided support for the euro. From the perspective of market structure, the short - term market sentiment is slightly bullish. The key resistance levels are concentrated in the 1.1494 - 1.1500 area. If this platform is broken through and held, it may form a new bullish breakout point. Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Short
by Ashbur
EUR/USD Analysis – Possible Scenarios🔹 Price is currently trading around 1.1421, consolidating between key supply and demand zones. 🔴 Supply Zone (Order Block 1H): 1.14360 – 1.14590 📌 Strong bearish reaction from this resistance area. First scenario: rejection from this OB and a move downward. 🔵 Demand Zone (Order Block 4H): 1.13050 – 1.13430 ✅ If price fails to break the resistance, we could see a retracement to this OB. Bullish reaction here may offer long opportunities. 🟢 Fair Value Gap (FVG 1H): 1.11800 – 1.12220 📉 If OB 4H fails to hold, price could drop into this FVG area – a high-liquidity zone for potential reversal. 📊 Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Break and hold above OB 1H → price may extend toward next OB zone at 1.15150 – 1.15400 2️⃣ Rejection from OB 1H → pullback to OB 4H → possible long setup if confirmed 3️⃣ Break below OB 4H → deeper move into FVG 1H ‼️ Avoid premature entries – wait for valid confirmations. 🔍 Insight by ProfitaminFX If this outlook aligns with your bias, or if you see it differently, feel free to share your perspective in the comments. Let’s grow together 📈
by ProfitaminFX