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EURUSD | Monthly | Chapter 3 | No mercy, no EuroAfter beeing stopped out of my last Short at EURUSD (See related idea). I took a look at the monthly chart. Price is currently at a big support level. If we should see further movement down, (i would prefer to see 2 monthly open and closes under "Support area 1) i will look to short on a retest of said support area. SL would be based on a LTF however i would not want to see a open and close above Support area 1. Main points: - As long price doenst manage to get above Support area 1 (open and close of a monthly candle) i dont look to take any longterm longs. - Current area is a no-trade-area as it easily could become an engulf and shoot above the Support area 1. As mentioned i prefer to see further down movement before going short. Good luck Disclaimer: - This information does not constitute as financial advice and is only for educational purposes. I am not your financial advisor. - You trade entirely at your own risk - Make your own research - Finance and trading is evil, capitalism is bad, duh ;)
by a_tale_of_bulls_and_bears
EUR/USD: Trends Amidst Fed Caution and Technical AnalysisThe foreign exchange market, a dynamic arena where currencies engage in a perpetual dance, is currently witnessing notable shifts in the EUR/USD pair. This analysis delves into the intricate interplay of both fundamental and technical factors influencing the Euro against the US Dollar. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to monetary policy and recent technical developments, we explore the potential for a downtrend in EUR/USD. The aim is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics, linking the Fed's commitment to interest rate management, the impact of slowing US inflation, and the technical chart patterns that may shape the future trajectory of this critical currency pair. Join us in dissecting the nuances that contribute to the potential downward movement of EUR/USD, with an ultimate target set at 1.05719 by the year's end. Fundamental Analysis: Cautious Fed Monetary Policy: In its recent meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) reiterated its cautious approach to interest rate management, choosing not to raise rates. This decision reflects a policy focused on economic stability and vigilance against potential negative impacts. Impact of Slowing US Inflation: The Fed's commitment to raising interest rates only when necessary, particularly in relation to inflation control, indicates a concern for the balance between economic growth and price stability. A slowdown in US inflation could alleviate pressure for interest rate hikes. Euro Strength Amid Dollar Decline: The Euro has strengthened against the US Dollar, partly due to market concerns about a potential decline in the value of the Dollar. Investors may be seeking alternative investments in the Eurozone deemed more attractive. Technical Analysis: Resistance at the November 21 Pivot Point: On November 21, EUR/USD encountered resistance at the pivot point of 1.09594, which represents the highest level in the past three months. Failure to surpass this level can be interpreted as a rejection by the market to push prices higher. Potential Bearish Reversal: Failure to breach the pivot point resistance could signal a potential bearish reversal, especially if followed by further price declines. This may indicate buyer fatigue and seller strength, potentially leading to further declines. Target Price of 1.05719: Aligned with fundamental analysis, the potential decline in EUR/USD could be a response to tighter US monetary policy and the increasing allure of the Dollar. The target price of 1.05719 is considered a realistic level given market conditions and supporting fundamentals. Conclusion: Fundamental analysis indicates that the Fed's cautious monetary policy and the decline in US inflation could provide additional support for Dollar strength. Meanwhile, technical analysis, with the pivot point at 1.09594 as the highest in three months, highlights resistance and the potential for a bearish reversal. This combination of factors forms the basis for considering a short position on EUR/USD, with a target price aimed at 1.05719 by year-end. Monitoring both fundamental and technical developments is crucial for risk management and making informed trading decisions.
Short
by fardycurry
2
EURUSD Long term short ideas from 1.10500 (or 1.11000)This idea is based on my higher time frame bias that I have marked out from a while back, as we are steadily approaching a key level on the HTF. I'm going to be expecting EU to melt back down towards 1.07500 or lower to fill in major imbalances that have been left from before. In addition to this, we are entering the 0.78 region of the fib range which is a more premium zone to sell. As of now I will be waiting for price to slow down momentum and start showing some signs of weakness, in order for give us a a better sign that price is ready for a reversal. Ideally I want to wait for the 8hr supply on top of the daily however, if we see our lower time confluence i.e. Wyckoff distribution & CHOCH, I will be then looking to enter and hold on an intra-day basis. Confluences for long term EURUSD shorts are as follows: - EU is overall bearish on the higher time frame like the (monthly and weekly) - This is a pro trend trade that will be following the overall market trend. - Internal structure is also bearish as we have CHOCH on the higher time frame with a BOS. - Price is approaching a daily supply zone that has caused a BOS to the downside. - Price is also entering the 0.78 area of the fibonacci range good sign for a potential reaction. - Lots of FVGs on the higher time frame below as well as major pools of liquidity points. - Price has also swept lots of liquidity to the upside and has take out most of trend line Liq. P.S. Personally, I see price most likely reacting off the 8hr supply above the daily, just because there was a previous consolidation that still holds some liquidity above it. Hence why I will be waiting for that to get swept to mitigate the institutional candle that was left by the 8hr POI.
Short
by Hassan_fx
EURUSD Shorts to 1.08500 (Possibly lower)My bias for this week's prediction is for EURUSD to move bearish, As it has tapped into a strong level of supply. I will be waiting for wyckoff distribution to play out in order for us to catch sells this week. Simultaneously, the dollar has also tapped in to a demand zone which is expected to initiate a bullish reaction hence why I am bearish for EU. The 16hr supply hold a lot of precedence as not only its on the higher time frame but, it has also caused a BOS to the downside which continued the overall bearish trend. Not only that but, the zone has also swept liquidity which is a good sign that this zone will get respected. Confluences for EURUSD Longs are as follows: - Price tapped into a 16hr supply zone that has caused a BOS to the downside. - Overall price trend is bearish on the EURUSD chart. - Imbalances left below to target which hasn't been filled yet. - Lots of trendline liquidity to the downside and asian lows that's been left. - Dollar (DXY) is inside a 5hr demand which I'm anticipating a bullish reaction from. - Price has steadily approached the zone with weaker bullish candles indicating that bullish pressure is exhausted and over bought. P.S. I would love to see the asian high inside the zone get swept first in the form of a UTAD for a better confirmation of a sell but we will see what price does on Monday. Usually its a slow day however, I will be waiting for a clean CHOH on the lower time frame to give me a better insight of when price wants to expand to the downside.
Short
by Hassan_fx
EURUSD → Next on the downside appears 1.0640FX:EURUSD trades in an inconclusive fashion below the 1.0700 mark at the beginning of the week. If bears regain the initiative, they could initially drag the pair to the interim 55-day SMA, today at 1.0639. The loss of this region could open the door to a probable visit to the weekly low of 1.0495 (October 13) ahead of the 2023 bottom of 1.0448 (October 3). In the meantime, while below the 200-day SMA at 1.0800, the pair’s outlook should remain negative.
Short
by tradingconmike
EURUSD: Fed funds futures project rate cut in 2024, EUR/USD hitsRecent data indicates that the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the FOMC have noted a decrease in the anticipated reduction in federal funds rates for 2024. Forecasts were at 100 basis points (bps) last week, but this week they have decreased to 76 bps, which is in line with pre-Fed data. The FOMC is continuing to oppose dovish pricing while attempting to maintain the possibility of a rate hike. In spite of these efforts, only 23% of experts now believe that interest rates will rise at the next meeting on January 31, 2024. The EUR/USD currency rate dropped to its lowest point since the release of the most recent non-farm payrolls data in tandem with these market developments. Meanwhile, the US 2-year bond
Short
by Chart_MasterPro