EURUSD short-term trading set-upThe EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down since the September 25 High and remains on a bearish course below the 4H MA200 (red trend-line) since October 01. The 1D RSI is displaying a huge Bullish Divergence, being on Higher Lows against the Lower Lows of the Channel Down, so long-term a strong bullish break-out is expected.
On the short-term though, we can take advantage of this Lower Lows fractal that has been formed another 2 times on this pattern and rebounds towards the 4H MA200. You can short towards the RSI's Higher Lows trend-line, take the profit and switch to buying just before it touches it and then target 1.04200 (expected course of the 4H MA200).
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Eurusdsignals
EURUSD Bottom formation in progress. Strong Buy.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a nearly 2-year Channel Down. Being below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since October 02 2024, this is technically still the pattern's Bearish Leg.
However, having bottomed on November 22 and transitioned into a (dotted) Channel Up, this is the technical bottom formation of the long-term Channel Down and the rise following a 1D MACD Bullish Cross from such a low level (the lowest in 2 years), confirms that.
The similarities with both previous bottom formations (September - October 2023 and February - March 2023) are obvious, all of them triple bottomed before rebounding above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, buying now and targeting 1.08765 (Fib 0.618) is an excellent long-term trade in terms of R/R.
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EURUSD: Bullish Reversal Confirmed 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD nicely respected a key daily horizontal support.
With a consequent bullish movement from that, the price went up
and violated a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern on a 4H.
It confirms a local bullish reversal.
We can expect a bullish movement at least to 1.05236
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EURUSD Crucial test on the 4H MA200. Bullish if broken.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone since the September 30 High, which is technically the Bearish Leg of the long-term Channel Down pattern, which we saw on our previous analysis.
Having found support on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), the pair appears to be attempting another test on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which rejected the last Lower High (November 05) and has been intact since October 01, making it practically the basic long-term Resistance.
As a result, if the 4H MA200 breaks, the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone should follow too, which will cause a technical medium-term break-out. Our Target is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.08765.
You may use the Higher Lows trend-line as an additional tool to determine if the break-out will be successful as last time (November 05) the failed to hold and caused the new Bearish Low of the Megaphone. Similar analogy with the 4H RSI Higher Lows trend-line.
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EURUSD Once in a year buy opportunity about to run out.Last week (November 25, see chart below) we gave an ultimate buy call on the EURUSD pair as the price pierced through the 1.5 year Channel Down and immediately rebounded:
As you can see, that was the absolute bottom of the pattern, its technical Lower Low, which happened last time more than 1 year ago, on October 03 2023. The 1-week rally that followed is on a pull-back today as the new week opened and based on the previous two Lower Lows, this might be the final one, i.e. the last buy opportunity we will get before multi-week rally.
More specifically and as far as the October 2023 bottom is concerned, we are on the 1W RSI rebound similar to the week of October 23 2023. At the same time, this matches being on the 1W MACD's 2nd straight pink histogram bar. This indicates that this could be the last red week before the rally.
Our Target remains intact at 1.08765, exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (similar to the November 2023 Fib test).
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EURUSD Today's 1D Death Cross turning into a 3 month rally!The EURUSD pair is having a strong bullish reversal after marginally breaking on Friday below the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Down. The 1W RSI got marginally oversold (below 30.00), which is a technical buy level.
So far it is similar to the October 03 2023 bottom, which was formed on a 1D Death Cross, exactly the kind of pattern that is being completed today! That bottom initiated a strong 3-month rally that hit the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Our long-term Target is 1.08765 (Fib 0.618).
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EURUSD: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important support & resistance levels/zones on EURUSD for next week.
Support 1: 1.030 - 1.033 area
Support 2: 1.016 - 1.024 area
Support 3: 1.008 - 1.009 area
Support 4: 0.994 - 0.997 area
Support 5: 0.962 - 0.975 area
Support 6: 0.953 - 0.960 area
Resistance 1: 1.045 - 1.053 area
Resistance 2: 1.060 - 1.062 area
Resistance 3: 1.066 - 1.069 area
Resistance 4: 1.094 - 1.094 area
Resistance 5: 1.099 - 1.101 area
Resistance 6: 1.120 - 1.128 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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EURUSD: Bearish Trend Will Resume Soon?! 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD looks bearish after a test of a key daily horizontal resistance.
The price formed a range and violated its support with a strong bearish candle.
Taking into consideration that the pair is trading in a strong bearish trend,
probabilities are high that it will resume soon.
I expect a bearish continuation at least to 1.0572
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EURUSD Bottom made. Now rally until end of year.The EURUSD pair eventually fulfilled all of our bearish signals since the September top, with the most recent one (November 11, see chart below) successfully hitting our 1.05300 Target:
We are now shifting to a long-term bullish sentiment after a long time, as the price finally reached the 1.05185 - 1.04500 Support Zone, which is holding for almost 2 years (since early January 2023).
The 1W RSI is virtually identical to the July - September 2023 Bearish Leg, on which we based all of our sell signals, as it was identified from early on that the similarities between the two were strong (1D chart).
Now that the 1.236 Fibonacci extension got hit, we expect the bullish reversal to reach at least the 0.5 Fibonacci level, as it happened on November 20 2023. As a result, our Target is currently 1.09400.
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EURUSD The sell-off isn't over yet.The EURUSD pair is extending the sharp sell-off after the most recent bearish signal upon the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) rejection. This is practically the same sideways Zones we talked about almost a month ago (October 14, see chart below):
The price broke below the 1-year Higher Lows trend-line that was the last 'hope' for a bullish reversal and should now extend the bearish trend even lower. The 1D MA100 rejection was also a rejection on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and as you can see this is identical to the August 31 2023 rejection. That was half-way through a Channel Down (also starting from the Resistance Zone) that eventually targeted the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we remain bearish on this pair, targeting 1.05300 (Fib 1.236 extension), unless the 1D RSI hits 25.00 (oversold), in which case take profit regardless, as this RSI reading preceded the October 03 2023 bottom.
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EURUSD / TRADING UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE / 4HEURUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Current Movement to Supply Zone (1.092 - 1.095):
• Prices are attempting to reach a supply zone between 1.092 and 1.095. This level acts as potential resistance where sellers may enter, potentially halting further upward movement.
Potential Decline to Demand Zone (1.085 - 1.083):
• If prices face resistance near 1.092 - 1.095, they might pull back to the demand zone between 1.085 and 1.083. This demand zone represents a level of support where buyers might enter, stabilizing prices.
Outlook if Prices Stabilize Above 1.085 - 1.083:
• Stabilization above this demand zone suggests an opportunity for prices to increase. The next target is another supply zone between 1.101 and 1.104, which could act as a new resistance level.
Risk of a Decline if Demand Zone is Broken:
• If prices break below the demand zone (1.085 - 1.083), it signals potential for further decline to a lower demand zone (1.079 - 1.076). A break below 1.076 would likely confirm a downtrend.
Trend Confirmation Based on Zone Breaks:
• Breaking the supply zone (1.092 - 1.095) would signal an uptrend, while a break below the demand zone (1.079 - 1.076) would confirm a downtrend.
EURUSD targeting 1.0500 after the 1W MA100 rejection.Late August (Aug 26, see chart below) saw us emphasizing the critical role of the Lower Highs trend-line, being the top of a multi-year Falling Wedge pattern that started at the peak of the 2008 Housing Crisis, and its important on the long-term trend, with a break-out being bullish while a rejection being bearish:
The price was eventually rejected exactly at the top and at the same time the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which did the July 2023 rejection. That rejection initiated a correction back to the Symmetrical Support Zone of 2015.
As a result, we expect EURUSD to gradually descend towards that Zone and by mid 2025, hit 1.0500.
Notice also that the 1W RSI also got very close to its 15-year Resistance Zone. This has triggered in the past more brutal sell-offs.
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EUR/USD Builds Bullish Momentum with Strong Support and Pin BarAfter bottoming at 1.0760 exactly one week ago, FX:EURUSD has started to consolidate, forming what appears to be a base.
Since then, dips below 1.08 have been consistently bought up, culminating in a strong bullish Pin Bar candle yesterday.
To further support this bullish outlook, this base is forming at a key confluence of support levels, reinforcing the potential for an upward move.
With this in mind, I am looking to buy this pair, ideally on a dip, to ensure a positive risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2.
My target for a reversal is set at 1.0950, with respect to 1.09 resistance (this could serve as short term trader's target)
EURUSD confirmed the bottom. Low risk buy now.The EURUSD pair has turned sideways since it hit last week the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up and even though it hasn't broken above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) yet, the 1D RSI has given us the strongest buy signal possible.
That is breaking above its MA (yellow trend-line) after rebounding on oversold soil (below 30.00) last Wednesday. This is exactly what happened on the April 16 2024 Low. Even if that is a mid-correction rebound like the February 14 one, as both decline sequences have been of -4.00%, it suggests that we can target at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level until the price resumes the bearish trend.
As a result, we consider this a low risk buy, targeting 1.10000 (below the 0.618 Fib).
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EURUSD expected to rebound on an oversold 1D RSI.The EURUSD pair made a straight hit on our 1.08350 Target (September 23 idea, see chart below) following the 1.12000 Double Top rejection:
Right now the price sits below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), having failed to recover it in the past 2 days. This is however the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the last Low, which is where the February 14 2024 correction reversed.
At the same time, the 1D RSI turned oversold last Thursday, which is an even bigger bullish indication. For the past 2 years (since September 27 2022), every time the RSI got oversold (below 30.00), it was a very strong buy signal as the price reversed.
On the February 14 Low it reversed to the 0.618 Fib (blue), so currently our minimum target on this buy opportunity is 1.10550.
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EURUSD Bearish trend intact.The sell signal after the Double Top (September 23, see chart below) and the RSI Lower Highs rejection turned out to be a very accurate one and the price has already covered 75% of the distance to hitting our 1.08350 Target:
Given that there shouldn't be much divergence until then, we want to focus today on the 1W time-frame. As you can see, based on the ranged (Rectangle) pattern of the past 2 years, the price is at the top of the neutral zone, not even having broken the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 1.08350 is located on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and that is the minimum downside we expect, as the 1W MA100 provided the Lows of June 24 and April 15 2024. The long-term Support Zone is located considerably lower than that (1.04500 - 1.05250) and that is technically the downside potential of the pair.
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EURUSD formed the first 4H Death Cross in 4 months.The Double Top on EURUSD last time we mentioned it (September 23, see chart below) worked perfectly and followed its technical bearish bias as not only did the price got rejected but also broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and marginally the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the May's Channel Up:
At the same time, the pair just completed its first Death Cross on the 4H time-frame in almost 4 months (since June 14) and every time in the past 2 and more years (except June 14) that it made that formation, it gave a solid medium-term (at least) sell signal.
As a result, there is no reason to diverge from the 1.08350 bearish Target, which as with the February 14 Low, it is on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
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EURUSD: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD broke and closed below a key daily horizontal support.
After a retest of a broken structure, the price started to consolidate
within a narrow horizontal range.
Bearish breakout of the support of the range is a strong bearish confirmation.
The pair may continue falling to 1.1015
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EurUsd- Could drop 150 pipsYesterday, EUR/USD saw a sharp drop from the 1.12 level, reinforcing it as a strong resistance. The pair rebounded after touching the rising trend line, but in my view, it's only a matter of time before this support is broken.
In conclusion, I am looking to sell into rallies, targeting the 1.10 support, with a stop in place should there be a daily close above 1.12.
EURUSD Bullish continuation of the Channel Up.The EURUSD pair is defying the Double Top selling pressure of the 1.12100 Resistance and it appears that there are high probabilities of extending the Bullish Leg of the June's Channel Up.
With the support of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that contained the September 11 pull-back, the trend may be targeting the pattern's top for a new Higher High. It appears that so far there is high symmetry between the July - August 2024 Leg and October - November 2023 trend (both +4.99% rises), so the current uptrend may be of around +3.85%, similar to the one of December 2023.
As a result, with the 1D MACD also on a Bullish Cross, we are targeting 1.13500 for a Higher High.
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