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Eurusdsignals

EURUSD Parity achieved, first time in 20 years! What's next?The EURUSD pair has finally hit today the 1.000 (parity) level, a feat last seen on December 2002! This 20 year span is regarded by many as the closing of a Cycle, however, there is a pattern involved that we shouldn't disregard. That is the Channel Down starting after the July 2008 High (amid the Subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S.) with perfect matching Highs and Lows ever since. This is best viewed on this 1M (monthly) chart. As you see, the application of the Fibonacci retracement zones, gives a new perspective of how well they've been acting as Supports during the previous downtrends. This shows that if the psychological barrier of 1.000 breaks (by that we mean a full 1M candle closing below it), then the next Support is seen on the 0.382 Fibonacci (green shape). What is even more interesting is that during this 14 year span, this Fib level only held once (Jan 2012) and that only marginally (new Lower Low made 6 months after). As a result, the 0.236 is more likely to come by the end of the year/ start of next, if the 1.000 Support fails to contain this 1 year correction. Note that the 1M RSI hasn't been that oversold since March 2015. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD Approaching parity for 1st time since 2002 ahead of NFP!The EURUSD pair is on the 6th straight red 1D candle as it is headed towards the 1.000 level (parity) for the first time since December 2002! This may have come as a big surprise to many market participants but it was a realistic scenario based on the pair's multi-year Cycles that I pointed out last March during the first weeks of the Russian invasion in Ukraine: Back to today and the 1D time-frame. As you see the technical pattern since the February has been a Channel Down with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) acting as a Resistance. There are clear RSI Support and Resistance levels involved that accurately project the potential Lower Highs and Lower Lows on the Channel. At the moment the 1D RSI is approaching this 4 month Support Zone and as the price is nearing the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Down, we should be preparing for a buy. However being so close to the psychological 1.000 (parity) level and with the usual high volatility that follows the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reports, we can see some wild swings outside the pattern. Be ready to absorb this and at least on the short-term target the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (1.0390), where both previous Lower Highs have been formed. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
EURUSD Triple Bottom and potential huge Bullish Divergence?The EURUSD pair almost hit the 1.03470 Support and May 13 Low on Friday, held the level and see today a green 1D candle as the week started off. This is so far consistent with our view of 1 month ago: As long as the price trades below the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down, the long-term bearish trend is preserved. Naturally however, the 1.03470 Support, which is so far a Double Bottom and if Friday is confirmed then Triple Bottom, needs to break in order to target the -0.236 Fibonacci extension as a new Lower Low. With the 1D RSI on Higher Lows since April 28, we might have a big Bullish Divergence at hand, indicating bias of rising buy accumulation for the first time in months. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (red trend-line) pose as the short-term Resistance levels, however ideally we would like to see a break above the 1.07865 Resistance, where the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is, in order to confirm the trend shift from long-term bearish to bullish. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
2
EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekEven as the possibility of the EURUSD dipping to previous low hovers in the air considering the obvious signs of economic slowdown which exacerbate recession-related fears, I am of the opinion that a breakout/retest of the key level at $1.06000 could incite a bullish momentum in the nearest future to surprise the majority. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
EURUSD Stuck between the 4H MA50 and MA200The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down since the February 10 High but lately in particular since June 20, it has been sideways within the 4H MA50 (blue) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Our last EURUSD idea on the 4H time-frame, accurately caught the most recent top of the Channel all the way to the Support: Having a clear Support at 1.03470 on a technical Double Bottom formation, there are high chance of finally breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line of the Channel Down, if the current price action continues to recreate the March 07 - 30 fractal. If not, a rejection on the Lower Highs trend-line, can take the price back to the Support where a 1D candle close below it, opens the way medium-term for prices near 1.0100 (-0.236 Fibonacci extension). On the other hand, a break above the 1.078555 - 1.07720 Resistance Zone, can be enough to reverse the long-term trend to bullish and start targeting the higher Fibonacci retracement levels. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekThe US Federal Reserve delivered a 75 bps rate hike (the largest hike since 1994), triggering recession fears which might ripple across the major pairs in the week. Also, the ECB pre-announced it would hike rates by 25 bps in July; it is obvious that lifting rates also mean higher borrowing costs. Amidst all these development and from a technical perspective, I am looking forward to a bullish momentum with a key level sitting at around $1.04900... However, if price action does the opposite, I will be looking forward to selling at breakdown/retest of the Demand zone @ $1.04000 (which I doubt will happen based on the current structure!). Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
EURUSD High chances of finally turning bullishThe EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the February 10 High. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) turned into Resistance a day later and the price has been trading below it ever since. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) broke only marginally recently but still made a Lower High on the Channel and the price dropped sharply. Since that drop however, the pair has held the previous Low/ Support of May 12 and on June 15 it made a bounce there, potentially making it a Double Bottom formation. We can see the difference in structure with the failed Double Bottom on April 13. What further enhances the likelihood of a bullish break-out is the 1D RSI which has been on Higher Lows since April 28. As a result, a break above the Channel Down (Lower Highs) should target the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level around 1.07865, which is the May 30 (Lower) High and current Resistance. Most likely by the time of that test, the 1D MA100 would be there. A 1D candle close above it, will most likely target the 0.618 Fib (around 1.10580) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). In contrast, a 1D candle close below the 1.03470 Support, should extend the technical trading within the Channel Down and target a new Lower Low on the -0.236 Fibonacci extension near 1.000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
4
EURUSD Still no sign of a long-term buyThe EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down with our most recent analysis pointing to the importance of staying bearish last week as the price was testing the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the pattern: As you see the price got heavily rejected on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and is already near the middle of the Channel. During the previous Lower High rejection (March 31 2022), the price traded on the Channel's median before making a new Lower Low. We expect this trend to continue. The only buy signals exist only if the 1D RSI hits its Buy Zone below the oversold 30.00 level as on March 07, April 28 and May 12, or if it breaks and closes a 1D candle above the 0.382 Fibonacci (1.07800), in which case it can target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
5
EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsA strong U.S. jobs report made clear the intentions of a monetary tightening policy, at the expense of risk assets. Technically, the deep in the price of the Euro on Friday suggests possible exhaustion of the bullish momentum to signal a reversal set-up evolving. So, going into the new week, I want to be looking for selling opportunities as long as the price remains below the key level identified at $1.08 Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
EURUSD Testing the Lower Highs of the 4 month Channel DownThe EURUSD pair has been trading near the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the 4 month Channel Down for the past 5 days. During this time the price tested the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support and held. The longer it does, the stronger the buyer accumulation for breaking above the Lower Highs finally. Notice that this is also the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (1.07722), which is a strong Resistance level as it is technically. A break above it, would be a bullish break-out signal that should methodically target the higher Fibs (0.5, 0.618 and 0.786). As long as the Lower Highs hold, the dominant trend remains bearish long-term, targeting the 1.03470 Low and if broken then -0.236 Fib extension. Note that by break-outs we mean 1D candle closings above or below those levels. In addition, check the 4H RSI. When the price tested (and held) the 4H MA200 as Support, the RSI went below the 40.00 mark, the lowest level but with the highest price score since January 18, indicating that the market may finally be accumulating for a reversal of this long-term bearish trend. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
2
EURUSD | New perspectiveWith a simple downtrend continuation pattern identified on the 1 H time frame after connecting the series of lower highs; I am looking forward to taking advantage of a potential bearish momentum going into the New York session. Let's see what happens as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry