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Eurusdsignals

EURUSD close to its medium-term bottom ahead of ECB & FED RatesThe EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down since 2021. Yesterday the price came to the closest to the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down it has been since the March 31 2021 Lower Low and the 1D RSI the lowest since February 18 2020! Those are indications that the pair is approaching at least its medium-term bottom (if not long-term) ahead of a key 7 day volatility period that starts this Thursday (March 10) with the ECB making their Rate Decision and next Wednesday (March 16) when the Fed will announce theirs. Obviously this selling has been accelerated by the latest geopolitical dynamics (Ukraine - Russia war) but nonetheless, the long-term patter remains intact. If a bottom is made here, our target will be first the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) around 1.1200 and if a 1D candle closes above it, then extension to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down. Another way to book long profits is to look at the long-term 1D RSI Resistance (just over 61.500) and take profit once the RSI hits it. After that, if the Channel Down holds and rejects the price again, our sell targets will be first the 1.06400 COVID low of March 2020 and then the 2.5 Fibonacci extension at 1.04190. Note that only a break above the 1.14850 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) reverses the trend from long-term bearish to bullish. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
4
EURUSD Triangle Strategie Prediction #20220304FX:EURUSD The instability of the financial system is almost as troubling as the downturn in the overall market. We found safe-haven demand in the volatile dollar. The dollar index rose slightly to multi-month highs, which in turn caused the euro to fall below 1.1100 against the dollar. There will be some important technical issues involved in this decline in the exchange rate. This is not just a symbolic move, but a 10-month low, which is entering the support level (in the 1.10 - 1.09 area), which represents the bottom of a large wedge for this pair.
Long
by hannesgao
EURUSD November Megaphone still holding. Watch the 1D closings!Since last week, the act of war on Ukrainian soil hasn't left EURUSD unaffected, as the geopolitical conflict has caused a strong rise on the USD (as a safe haven) and devaluation of the EUR (which is affected the most with the war being on European territory). That has completely reversed the bullish sentiment a week before caused by the hawkish stance of the ECB. However, technically the pair remains within the wider look of the Megaphone pattern that started after the November 24 2021 low. Yesterday its Lower Lows trend-line (bottom), marginally broke but the day managed to close back above it and within the pattern. So far this has managed to hold another 2 times in a week. It becomes obvious that the market participants need to pay close attention to the closings of 1D candles. As long as they do close above the Lower Lows trend-line, we have the conditions for another run and test of the 1.14850 Resistance. A closing below the Lower Lows trend-line would set in motion the test of the 1.5 Fibonacci extension below at 1.09400. Keep in mind that starting today, the markets will be under the added pressure and volatility cause by the Initial Jobless Claims, Jerome Powell's Testimony and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls. P.S. As the 1W chart below shows, always keep a long-term perspective as an investor: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
15
EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsMy bias on this pair is contrary to the expectation of the majority as I continue to see a strong bullish move in the nearest future! Since my last publication on this pair, price did a correction into the bearish trendline (that was broken on 7th of Jan & 2nd Feb 2022) with a strong indication that the bullish momentum is about to begin hence my previous bias still holds (see link below for reference purposes). Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Triple bottom/Breakout) | Trendline Observation: I. Since the beginning of the last year 2021, the Euro recorded a 9.4% decline against the Greenback to express an emphatic bearish momentum. ii. And if we look closely at the charts, we will notice multiple attempts have been made to break out of key level @ $1.13500 since the beginning of the year 2022. iii. Multiple rejections of $1.115 in the last 3 months from buyers make this zone a strong niche for buyers as we can see how the price rejected this area on Friday to set the tone for a reversal move. iv. I am already in this trade but for those who are still doubtful of this bullish opportunity, a breakout of key level @ $1.13500 remains appropriate to buy... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 400 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 5 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
EURUSD The November Megaphone is still holdingThe war on European soil hasn't of course left the EURUSD pair unaffected on the short-term, but on the longer-term we see the Megaphone pattern that started in late November still holding. This is an update to my February 01 analysis: As you see, the price made almost an exact bottom on the Megaphone's Lower Lows trend-line and has strongly rebounded. Note that this is just the technical perspective and heavy fundamentals (such as the current war in Ukraine) may invalidate it if things escalate but once the situation stabilizes, the market will resume looking into the core macro-economic fundamentals of the Fed and the ECB. Right now yesterday's bottom bounce may be enough to re-test the 1.14850 Resistance (1), which has already failed 4 times (Feb 10 was literally only broken by a fraction). Only a 1D candle close above that Resistance may be enough to bring a new Higher High to the Megaphone pattern and that should align perfectly with a 1D MA200 test (orange trend-line) for the first time since June 17 2021. Outside the Megaphone, we have to look to above the 1.16900 Resistance (2) for a break-out buy (to 1.19100) and below the 1.11000 Support for a break-out sell (to 1.0940). P.S. As the 1W chart below shows, always keep a long-term perspective as an investor: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
3
EURUSD Inverse Head & Shoulders for 2022. Buy signal long-termEURUSD got rejected last Thursday exactly on the 1.14820 Resistance following the U.S. CPI report and after escalation in the Ukraine - U.S. conflict, it pulled back aggressively below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again on Monday. That short-term fundamental bearish news may have a very bullish effect on the long-term as the pair formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on the 1D time-frame, which is a pattern technically formed on market bottoms. If that is the case, and of course the conflict on the Ukrainian border doesn't escalate any further, then we should see EURUSD back above its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) targeting another test (the 3rd) of the 1.14820 Resistance. If it closes a 1D candle above, I expect it to extend first to the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the Megaphone pattern that started after the November 24 market low, where by the time it should meet with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Technically the extension should be as high as the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level (1.16675). After that, and always from a technical perspective (don't know how the fundamentals will be at the time), we can stay bullish only if the 1.16900 Resistance breaks. Until then, a pull-back to the 1D MA50 again will be more likely but of course I will be updating based on the price action on a weekly basis. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
1
EURUSDAs I said last weeks ... as I said in my last analysis, the EU rejected and climbed to area 1.15 from where it strongly rejected! in the next period I will wait for a range in this zone and then ... a descent to zone 1.10, my final target! however, any close even for 1 day above 1.15600 makes me think of a buy at 1.17-1.1750 ...I am in the extended range I was telling you about last week and I will try to continue playing between 1.12700-1.14900 THIS WEEK...exactly as I analyzed ... EURUSD made the move we were waiting for ... it reached 14,900 and rejected again! In the next period I will look for SELL up to 1.12700 and then around 1.14 ... my final target! NOTE: Please, give a LIKE if you find this idea useful! GREAT ATTENTION: *This information is not a Financial Advice.
by BloomFX_SIGNALS
3
EURUSD Megaphone still holding.This is an update to last week's EURUSD outlook: The pair did, as planned, hit the 1D MA100 target and (so far) has been rejected on the 1.14820 Resistance, making a Double Top. Even though this formation is bearish, since the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) broke for the first time since June 16 2021, we have a strong case of a long-term bullish reversal. On the shorter term, as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, the pair should target the top of the Megaphone and if that breaks, then the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Similarly, a 1D candle close below the 1D MA50, turns the short-term trend bearish towards the bottom of the Megaphone. P.S. Keep a long-term perspective if you are an investor: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsThe price moved over 140pips in our direction (see link below for reference purposes) before the appearance of multiple bearish engulfing candles which suddenly disrupted the bullish momentum building up from the reversal structure identified in my last speculation. The EURUSD bounced back after US jobs dip as we witness a cancelling of this bearish move during the course of last week trading session as buyers brought the price back to where it was during my first analysis on this pair - a development allowing me to maintain my bullish perspective on this one. Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish) Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Trendline | Consolidation structure Observation: i. Since the beginning of the last year 2021, the Euro recorded a 9.4% decline against the Greenback to express an emphatic bearish momentum. ii. The bearish momentum appears to have found a bottom @ $1.12 in November 2021 which can be evident in the character of price action in the last 3 months except for the "sudden" breakdown of this level at the tail end of the month January 2022. iii. Except for the "false" breakdown at the end of last month; Since the price hit bottom @ $1.12, we have noticed a gradual bullish momentum as the price continues to find higher lows which are evolving to the possibility of buyers taking over the deals from the supplication zone around $1.135 area. iv. Like I have stated on my last speculation, above key level @ $1.13 appears to be a comfort zone for me to long with hopes of adding to my existing position at Breakout/Retest of $1.138 area. v. In this regard, I suspect that the early hours/days of the new week might see a drop in price towards the key level area where I have identified on the chart as a new demand level to incite an increase in the value of the Euro. vi. Hence, above the key level @ $1.3 remains a comfortable area to long the EURUSD. NB: Considering the long-term Bearish momentum, it is appropriate that we remain conscious as the Bullish expectation in the coming week(s) could be a correction phase that might incite a downtrend continuation but till then ... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 400 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 5 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
EURUSD approaching the 1D MA50 with the ECB rate & NFP in focusLast week I made an analysis based on EURUSD's multi-year historic patterns with regards to Fed Rate Hikes: This 30year long historic sample made a case why the pair turned into a long-term buy as it came near a trend-line that was previously a Resistance since July 2008. Eventually the price is rebounding so far on this trend-line, potentially turning it into a Support. That was on the 1W time-frame, so let us get back to our usual 1D chart analysis. As you see on the current chart, the most dominant pattern since December 01 2021 on EURUSD has been a Megaphone. On Friday the price found support and made a bottom on its Lower Lows trend-line and is so far posting a strong 2 day rebound. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the first Resistance. A break above it makes the pair for me an immediate buy signal for a 1D MA100 (green trend-line) target. A break below Friday's low is a sell signal towards 1.09625 (2.5 Fibonacci extension). Another trend-line that is critical in my opinion is one I've first mentioned 2 months ago, the Internal Pivot trend-line since May 05 2021. As long as the price trades above it, the probabilities for a Higher High above the 1.14820 Resistance are stronger. The price has traded below it last Thursday, Friday, Monday and before that for roughly a month in mid-November to mid-December. Keep an eye on that, it is an important pivot ahead of critical macro-economic announcements this week such as Wednesday's E.U. CPI, Thursday's ECB Rate Decision and Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
8
EURUSD Rate hike = Pair rises based on 30 year historic sampleFollowing Jerome Powell's confirmation of a rate hike this March (2022), EURUSD is getting sold aggressively. This is a good time to look into how rate hikes affect the pair's price action historically. The sample on the main chart is from January 2001 for technical reason's because I wanted to better display the giant Triangle the pair has been trading in until the COVID event. If you want to include a 30 year data set then look at the chart below, which also includes the February 04 1994 rate hike: So what does this chart tell us? To begin with, in this 30 year span which is a sizable sample for our analysis, there have been 3 rate hikes: * December 16 2015 when the rates started rising from 0.25% to 0.50% and gradually topped at 2.50% * June 30 2004 when the rates started rising from 1.00% to 1.25% and gradually topped at 5.25% * February 04 1994 when the rates started rising from 3.00% to 3.25% and gradually topped at 6.50% We can see that every time the EURUSD pair bottoms at (or in the case of June 2004 a month before) the day of the rate hike and initiates a very aggressive rally. Since the next Fed event is on March 16 2022 when the next rate hike will be announced, we could assume that the pair is at or very close to a bottom. On thop of that and with regards to the giant Triangle I mentioned above, we see that the price has been trading within that from October 2000 until July 2020. Since the break-out from this pattern, the former upper (Lower Highs) trend-line of the Triangle has been tested as Support twice (September 2020 and November 2021). After the sell-off since yesterday, the price finds itself once again on top of this trend-line. Can this be another bottom formation as the March rate hike approaches? It is possible. What's certain is that before every rate hike since 1994, the price was trading below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and after that it broke way above it. For your reference, the 1W MA50 is currently at 1.17396. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
17
EURUSD As I said last weeks ... as I said in my last analysis, the EU rejected and climbed to area 1.15 from where it strongly rejected! in the next period I will wait for a range in this zone and then ... a descent to zone 1.10, my final target! however, any close even for 1 day above 1.15600 makes me think of a buy at 1.17-1.17500 THIS WEEK...I am in the extended range I was telling you about last week and I will try to continue playing between 1.12700-1.14900 however, this week is an extremely difficult week with a lot of important news and I expect a rather aggressive move within the limits stated above NOTE: Please, give a LIKE if you find this idea useful! GREAT ATTENTION: *This information is not a Financial Advice.
by BloomFX_SIGNALS
8
EURUSD hit the 1D MA50. Will it support?Last week's EURUSD idea had to do exactly with this potential 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test and it happened: Of course that was largely attributed to the fact that we spotted that (emerging at the time) Channel Up and the top on its Higher Highs trend-line was accurately projected. Now the 1D MA50 test happens to be also at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. As I mentioned in December the weekly chart was largely oversold both in terms of RSI and CCI: As today's chart displays, the 1W RSI in fact (note that the price action is on the 1D time-frame but the indicators below (MACD and RSI) are on the 1W) made a Double Bottom, rebounded and is still just above 40.000. That means that the uptrend still has room to grow. The 1W MACD also made the decisive Bullish Cross. What does this mean for us now? Well, for as long as the Channel Up is valid, we should be buying on the Higher Lows, which is where the price is now and sell on the Higher Highs, back towards the bottom of the Channel. However, the next Higher High happens to be on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is a critical long-term trend-line. A break above, turns the long-term price action bullish again and is a buy break-out signal towards the 1.16900 Resistance (1) which is also where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is projected to be. Note that the 1D MA200 hasn't been touched since June 17 2021. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
3
EURUSD important bounce on the long-term PivotThe pair broke above its long-term pivot (Lower Highs) trend-line last week, effectively confirming the uptrend and the emergence of a Channel Up, at least on the medium-term. With the 1W MACD just making a Bullish Cross, EURUSD is now seen testing this pivot from above as a Support for the first time. If it holds, we may see a much stronger than expected rebound towards the previous Lower Highs or better yet the Fibonacci retracement levels. The 0.5 Fib (1.17265) is of particular interest to me as it is also where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line is). If it breaks below the pivot, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) will be the first level of Support (matching also the Higher Lows/ bottom of the Channel Up). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot