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Eurusdsignals

EURUSD approaching the 1D MA50 with the ECB rate & NFP in focusLast week I made an analysis based on EURUSD's multi-year historic patterns with regards to Fed Rate Hikes: This 30year long historic sample made a case why the pair turned into a long-term buy as it came near a trend-line that was previously a Resistance since July 2008. Eventually the price is rebounding so far on this trend-line, potentially turning it into a Support. That was on the 1W time-frame, so let us get back to our usual 1D chart analysis. As you see on the current chart, the most dominant pattern since December 01 2021 on EURUSD has been a Megaphone. On Friday the price found support and made a bottom on its Lower Lows trend-line and is so far posting a strong 2 day rebound. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the first Resistance. A break above it makes the pair for me an immediate buy signal for a 1D MA100 (green trend-line) target. A break below Friday's low is a sell signal towards 1.09625 (2.5 Fibonacci extension). Another trend-line that is critical in my opinion is one I've first mentioned 2 months ago, the Internal Pivot trend-line since May 05 2021. As long as the price trades above it, the probabilities for a Higher High above the 1.14820 Resistance are stronger. The price has traded below it last Thursday, Friday, Monday and before that for roughly a month in mid-November to mid-December. Keep an eye on that, it is an important pivot ahead of critical macro-economic announcements this week such as Wednesday's E.U. CPI, Thursday's ECB Rate Decision and Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
8
EURUSD Rate hike = Pair rises based on 30 year historic sampleFollowing Jerome Powell's confirmation of a rate hike this March (2022), EURUSD is getting sold aggressively. This is a good time to look into how rate hikes affect the pair's price action historically. The sample on the main chart is from January 2001 for technical reason's because I wanted to better display the giant Triangle the pair has been trading in until the COVID event. If you want to include a 30 year data set then look at the chart below, which also includes the February 04 1994 rate hike: So what does this chart tell us? To begin with, in this 30 year span which is a sizable sample for our analysis, there have been 3 rate hikes: * December 16 2015 when the rates started rising from 0.25% to 0.50% and gradually topped at 2.50% * June 30 2004 when the rates started rising from 1.00% to 1.25% and gradually topped at 5.25% * February 04 1994 when the rates started rising from 3.00% to 3.25% and gradually topped at 6.50% We can see that every time the EURUSD pair bottoms at (or in the case of June 2004 a month before) the day of the rate hike and initiates a very aggressive rally. Since the next Fed event is on March 16 2022 when the next rate hike will be announced, we could assume that the pair is at or very close to a bottom. On thop of that and with regards to the giant Triangle I mentioned above, we see that the price has been trading within that from October 2000 until July 2020. Since the break-out from this pattern, the former upper (Lower Highs) trend-line of the Triangle has been tested as Support twice (September 2020 and November 2021). After the sell-off since yesterday, the price finds itself once again on top of this trend-line. Can this be another bottom formation as the March rate hike approaches? It is possible. What's certain is that before every rate hike since 1994, the price was trading below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and after that it broke way above it. For your reference, the 1W MA50 is currently at 1.17396. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
17
EURUSD As I said last weeks ... as I said in my last analysis, the EU rejected and climbed to area 1.15 from where it strongly rejected! in the next period I will wait for a range in this zone and then ... a descent to zone 1.10, my final target! however, any close even for 1 day above 1.15600 makes me think of a buy at 1.17-1.17500 THIS WEEK...I am in the extended range I was telling you about last week and I will try to continue playing between 1.12700-1.14900 however, this week is an extremely difficult week with a lot of important news and I expect a rather aggressive move within the limits stated above NOTE: Please, give a LIKE if you find this idea useful! GREAT ATTENTION: *This information is not a Financial Advice.
by BloomFX_SIGNALS
8
EURUSD hit the 1D MA50. Will it support?Last week's EURUSD idea had to do exactly with this potential 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test and it happened: Of course that was largely attributed to the fact that we spotted that (emerging at the time) Channel Up and the top on its Higher Highs trend-line was accurately projected. Now the 1D MA50 test happens to be also at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. As I mentioned in December the weekly chart was largely oversold both in terms of RSI and CCI: As today's chart displays, the 1W RSI in fact (note that the price action is on the 1D time-frame but the indicators below (MACD and RSI) are on the 1W) made a Double Bottom, rebounded and is still just above 40.000. That means that the uptrend still has room to grow. The 1W MACD also made the decisive Bullish Cross. What does this mean for us now? Well, for as long as the Channel Up is valid, we should be buying on the Higher Lows, which is where the price is now and sell on the Higher Highs, back towards the bottom of the Channel. However, the next Higher High happens to be on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is a critical long-term trend-line. A break above, turns the long-term price action bullish again and is a buy break-out signal towards the 1.16900 Resistance (1) which is also where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is projected to be. Note that the 1D MA200 hasn't been touched since June 17 2021. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
3
EURUSD important bounce on the long-term PivotThe pair broke above its long-term pivot (Lower Highs) trend-line last week, effectively confirming the uptrend and the emergence of a Channel Up, at least on the medium-term. With the 1W MACD just making a Bullish Cross, EURUSD is now seen testing this pivot from above as a Support for the first time. If it holds, we may see a much stronger than expected rebound towards the previous Lower Highs or better yet the Fibonacci retracement levels. The 0.5 Fib (1.17265) is of particular interest to me as it is also where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line is). If it breaks below the pivot, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) will be the first level of Support (matching also the Higher Lows/ bottom of the Channel Up). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsWith over 100pips in our direction since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes); we witnessed a successful breakout of the supply zone to set the tone for a potential rally at least in the meantime. It is no news that the USD collapsed against the major pairs during last week trading session, and the catalyst for this scenario is the US inflation as the Consumer Price Index was confirmed at 7% YoY in December - the highest since 1982. In this regard, I still maintain a bullish perspective at least to a 61.8% retracement of Bearish Impulse leg on the weekly chart. Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish) Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. Since hitting bottom @ $1.12 on the 24th of November 2021, we have noticed a gradual bullish momentum as the price continue to find higher lows which culminated in a successful breakout of the Supply zone and Key level @ $1.135 to give the bulls a favourable environment to add to their existing position. ii. Spiced up by poor US data released throughout the week, the price continues to respect the Bullish trendline. iii. Trendline indicated on the chart is the visual representation of a line drawn under pivot lows which reveals the prevailing direction and speed of price action in the last 47 days. iv. The breakout of the key level was met with rejection at $1.148 which gives me a sign that we might be witnessing a retracement of the impulse leg. v. So, with this information; I am looking forward to the completion of retracement around my new demand level cited around $1.12850/$1.135 to join the rally. vi. However, it is worthy to state here that should price decide not to go as far as the new demand level identified then a bullish reversal set up on a lower time frame could be a signal we should be looking out for in the coming week to long... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3.5 Potential Duration: 4 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
EURUSD Major long-term bullish break-out. 1.1690 could be next.As I've posted on my end-of-the-year EURUSD analysis, the pair was neutral on the 1D time-frame and had very structured targets in case of a break-out but more importantly OVERSOLD on the 1W time-frame and had clearly formed a bottom that favored a bullish break-out and instructed traders to act accordingly: As it turned out, the bullish break-out happened and my short-term target of 1.1440 has already been achieved. In doing so, EURUSD broke above both the 1.13860 medium-term Resistance, closed above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since September 15 but more importantly, the Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding since June 01, the most recent High of the market. Right now I see two possibilities on the short and long-term but overall I remain bullish: 1) There is a Channel Up since the November 24 Low, and today the price has hit the Higher Highs trend-line. As long as this pattern stands, it is likely to see a rejection and pull-back towards its bottom. If the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, it will turn into the long-term Support that the pair needs in order to break above the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). 2) If the Channel Up breaks, the price will face the major Resistance of the 1W MA200 (red). A weekly close above it, will confirm a bullish break-out and shift to the long-term bias towards Resistance 1 at 1.1690 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which by that time should be around that level. Among all these, notice how the 1W MACD is forming a Bullish Cross. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
4
EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekHappy New Year! I welcome you to another new year with an against all odds expectation as I look forward to a Bullish expectation if the price successfully completes the reversal set-up identified on the Daily time frame (despite everyone looking for sell opportunity). Technically, the Euro continues to lurk around respected Demand level with high hopes of shooting above Key level @ $1.31 Price action remains stuck in a tight range as participants wait for additional catalysts such as economic data from the EU and U.S., Non-Farm Payrolls report for signals. Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (ascending triangle) Observation: i. Since the beginning of the last year 2021, the Euro recorded a 9.4% decline against the Greenback to express an emphatic bearish momentum. ii. The bearish momentum appears to have found bottom @ $1.12 in November 2021 which can be evident in the character of price action in the last 3 months. iii. Since hitting bottom @ $1.12, we have noticed a gradual bullish momentum as the price continue to find higher lows but met with a strong resistance level @ $1.138 area hereby transposing into an Ascending Triangle formation. iv. Ascending Triangle: the resistance line runs parallel while the support line is rising and to avoid false breakout at $1.138, we might want to wait for confirmation in the form of a retest of this level to go long. v. However, it is worthy of me to note here that the above key level @ $1.131 appears to be a comfort zone for me to long with hopes of adding to my existing position at Breakout/Retest of $1.138 area. NB: Considering the long-term Bearish momentum, it is appropriate that we remain conscious as this narrative on a Bullish bias might be a correction phase that might incite a downtrend continuation but till then ... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 5 to 15days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
2
EURUSD How to trade ahead of the Nonfarm PayrollsThe pair has stayed sideways on a 50 day time-frame (since November 16) but bullish on Higher Highs and Higher Lows (since December 15) hence forming a Channel Up. My outlook is unchanged and ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls today, the market has the catalyst that will introduce liquidity and help break-out. On December 31, EURUSD got rejected exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which as I've mentioned multiple times in the past, is the current Resistance on any upside break-out attempts. As long as it holds, a test of the 1.11875 Support is likely. If it breaks however, I expect an immediate push toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at 1.14395, which will make direct contact also with the Lower Highs trend-line since June 01. Above that level, we can claim that the long-term bullish sentiment will return. On the other hand, a break below 1.12345, will most likely also break the 1.11875 Support and target the -0.618 Fib extension at 1.11560. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3
EURUSD 1D neutral, 1W oversold. Trade accordingly.With EURUSD trading sideways within a Triangle on the 1D time-frame ever since the November 24 bottom, it helps our perspective if we zoom out on to the wider time-frames. I am using the 1W in particular (right side), which captures the price action since January 2020 (2 year price action). The indicator I use to compliment the price action is the CCI. As the 1D chart (left side) shows, that is neutral and scalping within the Triangle is the best course of action here. The 1D MA50 is right above the 1 month Resistance Zone and will play a major part as it has been untouched since September 16. A break above 1.13610 (if the sideways trade continues during next week as well, then it is where the 1D MA50 will most likely be at the time), the technical bullish break-out target should be the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 1.1440. On the other hand, a break below 1.12340, should target the -0.618 Fibonacci extension at 1.11560. The 1W chart though shows a different perspective long-term. The CCI in particular got oversold on the week of the November 24 bottom and has been rising ever since. This is an early indication that, even though EURUSD has been consolidating within the Triangle, the buying sentiment gradually gains some momentum. The last two times that the 1W CCI was that oversold and started rising that fast was on the Feb 17 2020 1W candle and the March 29 1W candle. Both candles formed bottoms and rose by +6.60% and +4.70% respectively. A new +4.70% rise from the November 2021 bottom would push the pair a little over 1.17000, which would test the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the long-term trend's Pivot Point and will decide its future price action. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
EURUSD Trading plan ahead of the Fed Rate DecisionThe pair has turned neutral within this Triangle pattern, trading sideways around the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as the market went into speculation mode ahead of Wednesday's critical Fed Rate Decision. Until then, short-term scalping inside the Triangle is the best option, for as long as it lasts. If the Triangle breaks to the upside, then our target will be the 1.618 Fibonacci extension = 1.14300 (which will also make a perfect Higher High on the Channel Up). If the Triangle breaks to the downside, our target will be the -0.618 Fibonacci extension = 1.11500. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on the 4H time-frame. Signal: (A) Buy as the price recovered the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which turned into a Resistance yesterday, while forming a Bullish Cross on the MACD. (B) Sell if the price breaks below (Higher Lows trend-line) the Channel Up. Target: (A) 1.1400 (just below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and if the 4H MA200 breaks, then target 1.1500 in extension (top of the long-term Bearish Megaphone). (B) 1.11050 (the bottom of the Bearish Megaphone). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3