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EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsWith over 100pips in our direction since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes); we witnessed a successful breakout of the supply zone to set the tone for a potential rally at least in the meantime. It is no news that the USD collapsed against the major pairs during last week trading session, and the catalyst for this scenario is the US inflation as the Consumer Price Index was confirmed at 7% YoY in December - the highest since 1982. In this regard, I still maintain a bullish perspective at least to a 61.8% retracement of Bearish Impulse leg on the weekly chart. Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish) Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. Since hitting bottom @ $1.12 on the 24th of November 2021, we have noticed a gradual bullish momentum as the price continue to find higher lows which culminated in a successful breakout of the Supply zone and Key level @ $1.135 to give the bulls a favourable environment to add to their existing position. ii. Spiced up by poor US data released throughout the week, the price continues to respect the Bullish trendline. iii. Trendline indicated on the chart is the visual representation of a line drawn under pivot lows which reveals the prevailing direction and speed of price action in the last 47 days. iv. The breakout of the key level was met with rejection at $1.148 which gives me a sign that we might be witnessing a retracement of the impulse leg. v. So, with this information; I am looking forward to the completion of retracement around my new demand level cited around $1.12850/$1.135 to join the rally. vi. However, it is worthy to state here that should price decide not to go as far as the new demand level identified then a bullish reversal set up on a lower time frame could be a signal we should be looking out for in the coming week to long... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3.5 Potential Duration: 4 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
EURUSD Major long-term bullish break-out. 1.1690 could be next.As I've posted on my end-of-the-year EURUSD analysis, the pair was neutral on the 1D time-frame and had very structured targets in case of a break-out but more importantly OVERSOLD on the 1W time-frame and had clearly formed a bottom that favored a bullish break-out and instructed traders to act accordingly: As it turned out, the bullish break-out happened and my short-term target of 1.1440 has already been achieved. In doing so, EURUSD broke above both the 1.13860 medium-term Resistance, closed above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since September 15 but more importantly, the Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding since June 01, the most recent High of the market. Right now I see two possibilities on the short and long-term but overall I remain bullish: 1) There is a Channel Up since the November 24 Low, and today the price has hit the Higher Highs trend-line. As long as this pattern stands, it is likely to see a rejection and pull-back towards its bottom. If the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, it will turn into the long-term Support that the pair needs in order to break above the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). 2) If the Channel Up breaks, the price will face the major Resistance of the 1W MA200 (red). A weekly close above it, will confirm a bullish break-out and shift to the long-term bias towards Resistance 1 at 1.1690 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which by that time should be around that level. Among all these, notice how the 1W MACD is forming a Bullish Cross. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
4
EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekHappy New Year! I welcome you to another new year with an against all odds expectation as I look forward to a Bullish expectation if the price successfully completes the reversal set-up identified on the Daily time frame (despite everyone looking for sell opportunity). Technically, the Euro continues to lurk around respected Demand level with high hopes of shooting above Key level @ $1.31 Price action remains stuck in a tight range as participants wait for additional catalysts such as economic data from the EU and U.S., Non-Farm Payrolls report for signals. Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (ascending triangle) Observation: i. Since the beginning of the last year 2021, the Euro recorded a 9.4% decline against the Greenback to express an emphatic bearish momentum. ii. The bearish momentum appears to have found bottom @ $1.12 in November 2021 which can be evident in the character of price action in the last 3 months. iii. Since hitting bottom @ $1.12, we have noticed a gradual bullish momentum as the price continue to find higher lows but met with a strong resistance level @ $1.138 area hereby transposing into an Ascending Triangle formation. iv. Ascending Triangle: the resistance line runs parallel while the support line is rising and to avoid false breakout at $1.138, we might want to wait for confirmation in the form of a retest of this level to go long. v. However, it is worthy of me to note here that the above key level @ $1.131 appears to be a comfort zone for me to long with hopes of adding to my existing position at Breakout/Retest of $1.138 area. NB: Considering the long-term Bearish momentum, it is appropriate that we remain conscious as this narrative on a Bullish bias might be a correction phase that might incite a downtrend continuation but till then ... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 5 to 15days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
2
EURUSD How to trade ahead of the Nonfarm PayrollsThe pair has stayed sideways on a 50 day time-frame (since November 16) but bullish on Higher Highs and Higher Lows (since December 15) hence forming a Channel Up. My outlook is unchanged and ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls today, the market has the catalyst that will introduce liquidity and help break-out. On December 31, EURUSD got rejected exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which as I've mentioned multiple times in the past, is the current Resistance on any upside break-out attempts. As long as it holds, a test of the 1.11875 Support is likely. If it breaks however, I expect an immediate push toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at 1.14395, which will make direct contact also with the Lower Highs trend-line since June 01. Above that level, we can claim that the long-term bullish sentiment will return. On the other hand, a break below 1.12345, will most likely also break the 1.11875 Support and target the -0.618 Fib extension at 1.11560. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3
EURUSD 1D neutral, 1W oversold. Trade accordingly.With EURUSD trading sideways within a Triangle on the 1D time-frame ever since the November 24 bottom, it helps our perspective if we zoom out on to the wider time-frames. I am using the 1W in particular (right side), which captures the price action since January 2020 (2 year price action). The indicator I use to compliment the price action is the CCI. As the 1D chart (left side) shows, that is neutral and scalping within the Triangle is the best course of action here. The 1D MA50 is right above the 1 month Resistance Zone and will play a major part as it has been untouched since September 16. A break above 1.13610 (if the sideways trade continues during next week as well, then it is where the 1D MA50 will most likely be at the time), the technical bullish break-out target should be the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 1.1440. On the other hand, a break below 1.12340, should target the -0.618 Fibonacci extension at 1.11560. The 1W chart though shows a different perspective long-term. The CCI in particular got oversold on the week of the November 24 bottom and has been rising ever since. This is an early indication that, even though EURUSD has been consolidating within the Triangle, the buying sentiment gradually gains some momentum. The last two times that the 1W CCI was that oversold and started rising that fast was on the Feb 17 2020 1W candle and the March 29 1W candle. Both candles formed bottoms and rose by +6.60% and +4.70% respectively. A new +4.70% rise from the November 2021 bottom would push the pair a little over 1.17000, which would test the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the long-term trend's Pivot Point and will decide its future price action. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
EURUSD Trading plan ahead of the Fed Rate DecisionThe pair has turned neutral within this Triangle pattern, trading sideways around the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as the market went into speculation mode ahead of Wednesday's critical Fed Rate Decision. Until then, short-term scalping inside the Triangle is the best option, for as long as it lasts. If the Triangle breaks to the upside, then our target will be the 1.618 Fibonacci extension = 1.14300 (which will also make a perfect Higher High on the Channel Up). If the Triangle breaks to the downside, our target will be the -0.618 Fibonacci extension = 1.11500. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on the 4H time-frame. Signal: (A) Buy as the price recovered the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which turned into a Resistance yesterday, while forming a Bullish Cross on the MACD. (B) Sell if the price breaks below (Higher Lows trend-line) the Channel Up. Target: (A) 1.1400 (just below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and if the 4H MA200 breaks, then target 1.1500 in extension (top of the long-term Bearish Megaphone). (B) 1.11050 (the bottom of the Bearish Megaphone). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3
EURUSD got rejected on the Pivot but the 4H MA50 holds the keyEURUSD made a valiant rebound attempt last Friday, the strongest green 1D candle in months, but today that got rejected on the Internal Pivot trend-line since May 05, following the vaccine news on Omicron and Powell's comments on inflation. In my opinion the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) will play a critical role moving forward. As long as the candles close above it, then there is a higher chance of resuming the rebound towards (and slightly above) the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in a similar way as the late August rebound (also the 1D RSI is on a strong multi-month Support). That would make an ideal technical top on the Lower Highs trend-line since June 01. In that case our target is 1.15000. A 1D candle close above the June 01 trend-line, constitutes a strong bullish break-out with an upside extension on the 1.16900 Resistance. On the other hand, every candle close below the 4H MA50 places more downside risk on the dominant long-term bearish trend towards 1.11300. After all, the latest pattern that has emerged is a Bearish Megaphone (portrayed in blue) and 1.11300 would make contact with its Lower Lows trend-line. The catalyst of the week is the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. Trade accordingly and responsibly. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3
EURUSD broke above its Channel Down and is testing the 1H MA200EURUSD has been on a multi-month downtrend. Today howver the price broke above its short-term Channel Down on the 1H time-frame and is currently testing the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since November 10. A closing above it should be taken as a bullish signal towards the higher Resistance levels (first 1.13750) which as you see happen to be somewhat aligned with the Fibonacci extensions. Taking into account the fact that the RSI on the 1D time-frame is oversold and formed a Double Bottom yesterday, it is possible that the long-term downtrend is losing its momentum and this is the start of a new month long rebound. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD The 1W RSI hasn't been that low since 2015 !!In fact the RSI on the weekly (1W) time-frame, which is now around 28.25, hasn't been that low since the April 06 2015 weekly candle. That alone shows just how oversold the EURUSD pair is at the moment, even on the long-term scale. This doesn't mean that it is time for the dominant yearly trend to shift from bearish to bullish (has been bearish for the whole year) but such oversold levels should provide a technical relief rebound. In fact, since April 2015, every time the 1W RSI traded close to that level it jumped to at least a Fibonacci level higher. Assuming the current structure replicates to a certain extent the Channel Down of 2018 - 2019, then we could see a rebound back towards 1.16000 which is where the Lower Highs trend-line is. If it marginally breaks it, as it did on September 24 2018, then it could reach as high as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is at 1.17152. Keep in mind that the next Fibonacci level to the downside is very close, the 0.618 at 1.1938 and those Fibonacci trend-lines have been fairly accurate at forming Support and Resistance levels. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
5
EURUSD Strong buy signal after a long timeEURUSD has hit (and marginally broken) the Lower Lows trend-line of the June Channel Down. There is a strong buy signal emerging after quite some time but the one main condition is that the price should always close 1D candles inside the Channel. As long as it does and given that the RSI just hit its 6 month Support Zone, it is more likely for the pair to bounce back towards the Lower Highs trend-line (top) of the Channel Down and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) towards 1.1590. There is one possibility to even break above the Channel and test the 1.1690 short-term Resistance due to so far repeating (to a certain extent) the July - August fractal. The price then made a Double Top on the 1.19100 (long-term) Resistance following an RSI Double Bottom on the Support Zone. The Double Top was above the 1D MA50 and if the pattern is replicated again it will be above the 1D MA50. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
5
EURUSDAs I said last weeks ... EURUSD continued to make range in the area I told you about! in the next period ... even if maybe it will test the 1.16600 area, I will look for SELL towards 1.14760 or even 1.14 THIS WEEK...as I said last week the EU went down and closed the week under strong resistance from 14,800! this week I will expect a strong pullback move of 60-80 pips and after .... DOWN AGAIN NOTE: Please, give a LIKE if you find this idea useful! GREAT ATTENTION: *This information is not a Financial Advice.
by BloomFX_SIGNALS
2
EURUSD How to trade the rest of the monthAt the start of November I posted the trading plan for the month: As you see, since the 1.15220 Support (then Triple Bottom) broke, EURUSD hit the 1.14470 downside Target which has (so far) made a perfect Low on the June Lower Lows (June LL) trend-line. This brings me to this analysis where I will lay out the trading plan and possibilities for the rest of November. The June Lower Lows trend-line is part of a wider Channel Down within which the pair has been trading since June 16. I call that Channel Down (B) (blue pattern). It is (B) because a little earlier than that, since the June 01 High, we can draw another Channel Down, which I call (A) (dashed lines). As you see, Channel Down (A) has a better fit on its Lower Highs (red arrows), while Channel Down (B) on its Lower Lows (green arrows), which is practically the June LL trend-line that helped us come up with the 1.15220 downside target. The possibilities are two: * As long as the June LL trend-line holds, there are more chances for a rebound towards first 1.1600 (where contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) may be made) and if Channel Down (A) breaks its dashed Lower Highs trend-line, then one last extension towards the 1.1690 Resistance. This would follow a fractal from the previous Lower High on September 03 where the price made a Double Top. * If the June LL trend-line breaks, then Channel Down (B) gets invalidated and the price will most likely seek the Lower Lows trend-line of Channel Down (A) towards 1.13000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
2
EURUSD The 4H MA200 is the key on the short-termThe pair is currently struggling at the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). This level of Resistance has only broken once (October 28) since September 16 and on the short-term holds the key to the current trend as a break above it most likely confirms that EURUSD is repeating the tilted Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern of mid October which eventually topped on the (dotted) Higher Highs trend-line. Target 1: 1.16650 on a potential contact with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). Target 2: 1.17100 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of 1.19100 and just below the Higher Highs trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
2
EURUSD | Perspective for the new week In the wake of a stronger than expected US labour market report for October 2021, the Euro appear to be taking a bounce from fresh annual lows under $1.1520. Despite citing a Double Top pattern with a successful Breakdown of Neckline confirming a reversal pattern, I am looking forward to taking a "quick" countertrend in the coming week with my eyes still on the long-term expectation of a Bearish momentum evolving. Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Double Bottom) Observation: i. Since the beginning of September 2021, the Euro recorded a 3.39% drop against the Dollar and this is represented by the prior leading price action (Bearish Impulse leg). ii. And since hitting bottom around $1.15200, the Bearish momentum appears to fizzle out as Buyers find what looks like a Demand level at this zone in the last 6 weeks to incite a Correction phase. iii. It is also appropriate to note here that finding a bottom in a zone ($1.15200 area) that has a memory as far back as 2017 for the demand for Euro might not be a coincidence and seems to be a very good opportunity to take a "quick" countertrend😊. iv. With recent structure and considering the Double Top pattern identified on the Weekly chart, I suspect that this potential correction phase will stall at the Neckline zone to incite a risk of further decline for the Euro. v. Double Bottom: We do have a highly bullish technical reversal pattern forming at this juncture in the market with structure revealing a change in trend and a momentum reversal from the prior leading price action (major downtrend). vi. Even as we await a confirmation which will happen if the price breaks out of resistance level @ $1.16750 (Neckline of potential Double Bottom) which equals the high between the two prior lows; I am willing to take a long position at a break and stay above of $1.16100 with an opportunity to add to the existing position at a Breakout/Retest of Neckline in the coming week(s)... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 150 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 5 to 12days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
8
EURUSD Potential Triple Bottom. How to trade November.EURUSD is having a new sell-off following the Fed Rate Decision yesterday. From a fundamental perspective, the market won't stabilize until the Nonfarm Payrolls report is released on Friday. Until then, from a technical stand-point, we may have a Triple Bottom formation if today's session closes above the 1.15220 Support. If it does, it is more likely to see the pair rebound back towards the 1.16900 Resistance but buyers should target a little lower (e.g. 1.16700) as the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) is currently at 1.16900 but falling. Basically the Higher Highs trend-line since October 04 along with the 1.15220 Support, form a Triangle pattern, so until it breaks, the trades should be sell at the top buy at the bottom. Practically a break above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (1.1716) justifies further buying above the Triangle. Similarly a break below the 1.1520 Support calls for a sell break-out towards the long-term Lower Lows trend-line of June (rough estimate 1.14470). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3