Eurusdsignals
EURUSD Emerging Golden Cross on 4HFollowing my most recent EURUSD idea, the price has broken above not just the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) but also the 1.0 Fibonacci level on the Channel Down. The most important development is the emergence of the Golden Cross (4H MA50 crossing above the 4H MA200), which is typically a bullish pattern. Last time however it only gave one last spike to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension and later failed. The one before (Golden Cross) though, was what kickstarted the December 2020 rally. The difference between the two was the 4H MA200, in late February it failed to hold, while in late November it succeeded.
So right now we should be expecting at least one last spike to the 1.382 Fib ext (roughly 1.20500) and if on the pull-back the 4H MA200 holds, then an extension towards the 2.0 Fib at least. If 1.382 is rejected though, then the Channel Down has more probabilities to resume its bearish course.
Most recent EURUSD idea:
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekThe rise in US government bond yields (when 10-year yields went as high as 1.68%) appears to be having a positive effect on the Greenback as I look forward to a bearish momentum in the coming week(s). With lines drawn by connecting the lower highs and lower lows of price with parallel trendlines, It is obvious that price has been caught within a Channel in a downward trend since December 2020 as the new year started with what looks the beginning of a reversal pattern and it doesn't appear to change unless we experience a significant Breakout of Trendline.
Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish )
Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Channel | Reversal pattern
Observation: i. Buyers completely lost grip of the $1.2000 level in early March 2021 resulting in a Breakdown that tested Channel the third time.
ii. A couple of rejection of the $1.2000 level after the Breakout (double rejection on the chart) reveals the selling pressure at this juncture.
iii. The resulting line drawn over pivot high (represented on the chart as Pivot I & II) reveals the prevailing direction of price action since it hit peak @ @1.23500.
iii. As I look forward to a possible Pivot III, I have identified the $1.2100/1.19500 area to be a new area to look out for selling opportunity in the coming week(s).
iv. A word of caution: Should price decide to make a significant Breakout of Channel/Trendline to the upside @ $1.21000, set-up shall be disregarded for a rally with retest expectations... trade consciously :)!
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 350 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:3
Potential Duration: 6 to 10days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Strongest 4H RSI since DecemberEURUSD has been trading within a Channel Down since the January 06, 2021 Top. However since the March 31 low, it has posted an impressive rise, which despite still being contained within the Channel Down, it has printed the highest RSI value since December 04 as the title suggests.
This could be due to the bounce on the 1W MA50 as I suggested last week on the idea shown below:
The 1.1850 target on my previous short-term idea has been hit and now it remains to be seen what this very strong RSI mean:
Can it illustrate a change of momentum and shift of the long-term sentiment back to bullish? The 1W MA50 bounce appears to be in line with that. For a better understanding, I have applied the Fibonacci extension levels on the Channel Down while also plotting on the chart apart from the 4H MA50 (dark blue) / MA200 (orange), the MA50 (light blue) and MA200 (red) on the 1D time-frame as well.
The price has recovered the 1D MA200, an important long-term level that was previously a Support. If it closes now above the 4H MA200, I don't think it will stop on the 1D MA50 and will go for a re-test of the 1.382 Fibonacci extension as it did on February 25. Then we will re-evaluate with a new post. All that, assuming the 4H MA50 holds as a short-term Support. If not then it is up to the 1W MA50 to hold on the weekly time-frame as it did last week, breaking of which should take EURUSD to the -0.382 Fib extension.
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EURUSD testing the 1W MA50. First time since May 2020! IMPORTANTQuick update on the EURUSD pair as today's selling pressure is pushing the price towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), a level that has been intact since late May, 2020. It is important ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report to maintain a long-term perspective and see what direction we should follow based on the outcome of that test.
As you see on the chart, since May 2017, every 1W candle closing above or below the 1W MA50 has essentially been a trend setter.
* On May 01, 2017 the 1W candle closed above the 1W MA50 and changed the trend to bullish for the next 1 year.
* On May 14, 2017 the 1W candle closed below the 1W MA50 and changed the trend to bearish for the next 2 years.
* On June 24, 2019 and December 30, 2019 the 1W MA50 was tested but the candles closed below, maintaining the bearish trend.
* On May 25, 2020 the 1W candle closed above the 1W MA50 and changed the trend to bullish for the 1 year Bull Phase we are currently in.
So as you realize, the closing on the current 1W candle is critical and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls should have a heavy impact on it.
What do you think will happen this time? Will EURUSD close the 1W candle above or below the 1W MA50?
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EURUSD Special RSI/ MACD occurrence.Pattern: Bearish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the MACD formed a Bullish Cross, while the RSI broke below 30.00 and bounced. Every time those two parameters were fulfilled at the same time, the price has hit either the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) or 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Target: 1.18500 (slightly below the 4H MA50) and 1.19800 in extension (slightly below the 4H MA200).
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EURUSD Short-term outlookPattern: Triangle on 4H.
Signal: Buy as long as the Higher Lows trend-line is holding, with an extension if you seek higher risk the 1D MA200 (green dots).
Target: A little below the 1.1990 Resistance and if it breaks, the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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EURUSD hit the 1D MA200 for the first time since May!Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price not only (almost) hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), for the first time since May 28, 2020, but also made a Lower Low on the inner Channel Down (blue pattern) and a Higher Low on the 7-month Channel Up. Also the RSI got oversold.
Target: 1.21600 (right on the Symmetrical Resistance and the outer Lower Highs trend-line).
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EURUSD SELLAS I CAN SEE THIS IS MAKING A H & S on 4hr TF
And successful broken support zone and achive all our targets in previous week
as i am expected a retrace till the support zone now become a resistance on rejection we will sell again
so dont waste the time sell on dips with small risk
and wait for greater rewards Dont forget to push like
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EURUSD SELL FROM KEY ZONE AS I CAN SE THIS PAIR WA CREATING A H & S PATTERN BUT FAIL TO BREAK RESISTANCE ZONE AND NOW
ITS TRADING UNDER A RESISTANCE LEVEL WE ARE EXPECTING MORE DROP INCOMING DAYS ON THIS PAIR
SO SELL THIS FROM GIVEN KEY ZONE WITH A SMALL RISK AND WAIT FOR HIGHER REWARDS
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EURUSD Buy SignalPattern: Channel Down on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price hit the Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel.
Target: 1.20500 (the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level as it happened on January 22).
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EUR/USD attacks resistance levelThe EUR/USD was able to turn up even before the turning date on 8 February, working its way up to the resistance zone at USD 1.2170. This resistance level was reached exactly on 16 February. With an ultimately weak trading day, this attack ended and a renewed consolidation followed. This time, however, with a higher low, which led the currency pair back up to the resistance at USD 1.2170 during the past few days. So far, no breakthrough has been achieved and the behaviour at the end of the week remains exciting to observe. A breakout, especially at the weekly close above USD 1.2170, could hold out the prospect of further upside potential to USD 1.2350 in the short term.
A renewed rejection, on the other hand, is likely to cause a setback to at least USD 1.2050. As long as the last reaction low is not undershot in the process, the situation of the further course remains slightly bullish. Below USD 1.2020 on the daily closing, however, one would have to reckon with a more extensive countermovement towards the support of USD 1.1930.
Notice:
Despite careful analysis, Global Investa does not guarantee the content, timeliness, accuracy or completeness of the information provided. In particular, the information provided does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or investment brokerage and can in no way replace investor and investment advice from a professional investment advisor who takes into account the individual economic circumstances and the level of experience of the customer.
EURUSD Golden Cross on 4H. Potential long-term target = 1.2550This is a quick update on EURUSD on its price action on the 4H time-frame. The biggest development is the formation of a Golden Cross (the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing above the 4h MA200 (orange trend-line), which is a technical bullish pattern. It is the first time that a 4H Golden Cross is formed since November 11, 2020.
If we look at the past 12 month price action, we see four Golden Crosses on the 4H chart (see the charts on the right):
* The Nov 11, 2020 Cross delivered a +4.40% rise from the time it was formed.
* The October 21, 2020 delivered a fake signal as the price had already topped and made a new low 10 days after.
* The May 21, 2020 Cross delivered a +3.80% rise.
* The March 04, 2020 delivered a +3.50% rise.
As you realize, there are more chances for a 4H Golden Cross based on the 12 month historic volatility, to initiate a bullish run. Assuming it posts the lowest +3.50% rise, then the next High could be a little over 1.2550.
That is not at all unrealistic based on EURUSD's dominant long term pattern which is a Channel Up, as shown on my Feb 03 post below:
Shorter-term charts on EURUSD posted recently that you may find useful are the following:
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekA simple structure appears to have finally presented a long term trading opportunity for me on the EURUSD!
During the later part of last year, we experienced price making a final Breakout of Key level @ $1.19600 to make a new high as price rejects and find Support at this level (5th Feb 2021) with positive signs of good days for the Euro in the nearest future. As I continue to wait for fundamental headlines related to a new stimulus package in the US to support my bias in the coming week(s), find below my expectations;
Tendency: Uptrend ( Bullish )
Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Trendline
Observation: i. Now that price finally finds new Support at Key level area since breaking out of $1.19600, I shall be on standby to hop in a rally within/above this level.
ii. A Double bottom could be a possible pattern to look for if the price comes back to the Demand zone.
iii. Should price find it unnecessary to come back into the Demand zone, a Breakout/Retest of $1.2100 appears to be another level to look for buying opportunity in the coming week(s).
iv. For my cautious traders, a Breakout/Retest of $1.2100 could be a viable level to open a position :)
Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 400 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:4
Potential Duration: 15 to 25 days
NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the 4H RSI hit its multi-month Buy Zone and the price itself the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, similar to the October 15 fractal.
Target: 1.2200 (the -0.236 extension as with the October 15 fractal).
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EURUSD Channel Up emergingPattern: Emerging Channel Up on 4H, so far the January-February price action resembles that of September-October 2020. Both legs within a larger/ longer term Channel Up (see chart at the end).
Signal: Buy on the 4H MA50 if the price gets rejected on the 4H MA200.
Target: 1.21700 (just below the 1st Resistance).
The bigger picture:
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EURUSD Entering the long-term Buy ZonePattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy once the MACD forms a Bullish Cross, as the price is already inside the Channel's Buy Zone and very close to the Higher Lows trend-line.
Target: 1.25500 (below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension and on the inner Higher Highs trend-line).
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EURUSD BUY FROM SUPPORTAs i can see this pair is still holding above 1.20000 which show us more bullish moves till 1.24000
so we are trading this pair from a strong support zone with low risk and looking for higher rewards
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EURUSD Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price is coming off an Inverse Head and Shoulders, which last time (November 09-23) formed a bottom.
Target: 1.2300 (below the current Resistance). Potential extension to the 2.5 Fib extension if the 1.2350 Resistance breaks.
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