EURUSD Golden Cross on 4H. Potential long-term target = 1.2550This is a quick update on EURUSD on its price action on the 4H time-frame. The biggest development is the formation of a Golden Cross (the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing above the 4h MA200 (orange trend-line), which is a technical bullish pattern. It is the first time that a 4H Golden Cross is formed since November 11, 2020.
If we look at the past 12 month price action, we see four Golden Crosses on the 4H chart (see the charts on the right):
* The Nov 11, 2020 Cross delivered a +4.40% rise from the time it was formed.
* The October 21, 2020 delivered a fake signal as the price had already topped and made a new low 10 days after.
* The May 21, 2020 Cross delivered a +3.80% rise.
* The March 04, 2020 delivered a +3.50% rise.
As you realize, there are more chances for a 4H Golden Cross based on the 12 month historic volatility, to initiate a bullish run. Assuming it posts the lowest +3.50% rise, then the next High could be a little over 1.2550.
That is not at all unrealistic based on EURUSD's dominant long term pattern which is a Channel Up, as shown on my Feb 03 post below:
Shorter-term charts on EURUSD posted recently that you may find useful are the following:
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Eurusdsignals
EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekA simple structure appears to have finally presented a long term trading opportunity for me on the EURUSD!
During the later part of last year, we experienced price making a final Breakout of Key level @ $1.19600 to make a new high as price rejects and find Support at this level (5th Feb 2021) with positive signs of good days for the Euro in the nearest future. As I continue to wait for fundamental headlines related to a new stimulus package in the US to support my bias in the coming week(s), find below my expectations;
Tendency: Uptrend ( Bullish )
Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Trendline
Observation: i. Now that price finally finds new Support at Key level area since breaking out of $1.19600, I shall be on standby to hop in a rally within/above this level.
ii. A Double bottom could be a possible pattern to look for if the price comes back to the Demand zone.
iii. Should price find it unnecessary to come back into the Demand zone, a Breakout/Retest of $1.2100 appears to be another level to look for buying opportunity in the coming week(s).
iv. For my cautious traders, a Breakout/Retest of $1.2100 could be a viable level to open a position :)
Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 400 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:4
Potential Duration: 15 to 25 days
NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the 4H RSI hit its multi-month Buy Zone and the price itself the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, similar to the October 15 fractal.
Target: 1.2200 (the -0.236 extension as with the October 15 fractal).
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EURUSD Channel Up emergingPattern: Emerging Channel Up on 4H, so far the January-February price action resembles that of September-October 2020. Both legs within a larger/ longer term Channel Up (see chart at the end).
Signal: Buy on the 4H MA50 if the price gets rejected on the 4H MA200.
Target: 1.21700 (just below the 1st Resistance).
The bigger picture:
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EURUSD Entering the long-term Buy ZonePattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy once the MACD forms a Bullish Cross, as the price is already inside the Channel's Buy Zone and very close to the Higher Lows trend-line.
Target: 1.25500 (below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension and on the inner Higher Highs trend-line).
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EURUSD BUY FROM SUPPORTAs i can see this pair is still holding above 1.20000 which show us more bullish moves till 1.24000
so we are trading this pair from a strong support zone with low risk and looking for higher rewards
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EURUSD Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price is coming off an Inverse Head and Shoulders, which last time (November 09-23) formed a bottom.
Target: 1.2300 (below the current Resistance). Potential extension to the 2.5 Fib extension if the 1.2350 Resistance breaks.
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EURUSD Attention! Golden Cross on 1W formed!I want to post a quick notice on EURUSD where it just formed a Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200) on the 1W time-frame. That is the first time it forms this pattern since February 2018.
Even though this is in theory a Bullish Formation, for EURUSD on the 1W chart, it has been Bearish marking the top of the trend. On the February 05, 2018 1W candle it was formed exactly on the 1.25400 top, and the the pair started a 2 year decline that bottomed at 1.06300. Similarly on the December 30, 2013 1W candle, the Golden Cross was formed around 1.3900 and then after a Double Top 3 months later, the price sold off to 1.0500.
The RSI and MACD formations between the 3 are identical. Do you think the current Golden Cross on 1W will mark another top and cause a sell-off?
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EURUSD SELL FROM ZONEAs i can see this pairs started a bearish move and broken trend line
on Friday it close under a strong support zone as we can also see Mr Biden is announced 1.9 Trillion
Stimulus Package which help to get recovery of Dollar so fundamentally + technically it is how us some great moves till
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EURUSD Testing the 1D MA50. The Channel Up and the consolidationEURUSD is has been trading within a Channel Up since October. Today it is the first time that the price made contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since November 12, which obviously makes it a strong Support level. That also makes a Higher Low for the Channel Up. Technically that is a strong buy level towards the 1.2500 - 1.2600 Higher High Zone.
However, there is a certain sequence, which shows that if EURUSD closes one 1D candle below the MA50, it can enter a +1 month consolidation. As you see the August-September period was mostly a consolidation (green Rectangle) for EURUSD. Then the 1D MA50 failed to Support and entered a new lower consolidation (orange ellipse) for another +1 month that was the build up for the current Channel Up we're trading in. So keep an eye for a potential 1D candle closing below the 1D MA50 next week, in order to prepare for a few swing trades for the next 1month.
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EURUSD Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price bounced on the Channel's Higher Low trend-line while also holding the 4H MA50. Can use the Resistance as a break-out entry as it appears that EURUSD is repeating the late November break-out pattern to a new Higher High. RSI also identical.
Target: 1.2500 (below the Higher High trend-line and on a +2.70% rise from the Low).
Most recent EURUSD signal:
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EURUSD BUYING @SUPPORTAs i had analysis on our previous chart for EURUSD this pair successfully complete retrace to support zone and now we are
buying this on dips from since Thursday our pending orders triggered and now we are trading this pair with a small risk and looking for
higher rewards and remember we are trading this pair on the based of DXY weakness till it complete 88.75 area
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EURUSD BUYING NEAR @SUPPORT ZONE !!As we can see this pair has break weekly strong resistance and now going to retest it as a support and will touch the trend line too
for making a new high so we are planing to buying this pair from given buying zone with a low risk and looking for higher rewards
Brexit talks are still on hope for a deal or may be a a no Deal so keep ur eye on the given support zone
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Finally reached the target 5 - Follow up analysisFinally reached the "Target 5"! It has been PERFECT trades so far.
I reckon, sooner or later, it will retest the trendline. If the candles can stay above the Trendline, I believe it will reach the Final target this month.
This is not a BUY signal; this is just a follow-up analysis/forecast.
Catalyst:
- Price action
- US data
- EUR data
EURUSD The Channel now shows 1.2300This is an update on my December 04 idea:
The Channel Up is holding well and as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) continues to provide Support, the next Higher High target becomes 1.2300. See how the MACD is replicating the exact same sequence of the previous Higher High leg.
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new week240pips running in our direction since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes); EUR/USD has been caught within a range capped between $1.20600 and $1.21600 since price hit a peak @ $1.21780 at the beginning of the month. Considering the completion of a Double Top "look-alike" pattern, a counter-trend opportunity surfaces as a short-term pullback appears to be healthy for the buyers at this juncture to gain enough momentum to push the rally.
Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish )
Structure: Reversal pattern | Double Top | Supply & Demand
Observation: i. The Bullish run that started mid-November 2020 appears to have found a bus stop (Supply zone) as buyers attempt to push the price beyond $1.2780 is met with rigorous Selling pressure.
ii. A sharp rejection of $1.21600 area on Friday with an engulfing Bearish candles calls my attention to the strength Sellers have at this level.
iii. As price finds a new Supply level @ $1.21350 towards the close of last week trading session, this key level shall be a level to look out for in the coming weeks to open a sell position should in case of price retraces back.
iv. A Breakdown/Retest of $1.20600 shall inspire a second position.
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:5
Potential Duration: 4 to 10 days
NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD BUYING FROM KEY LEVEL !!!AS we can see this pair has break strong resistance zone which now become a support
so we are planing to buying this from support level DXY also sowing weakness have a look on my DXY analysis
hope so you will better understand
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EURUSD Pull back possible on Bearish MACD CrossPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Sell towards the 4H MA50, as the MACD made a Bearish Cross almost exactly where it made its November 09 Cross. Buy once contact is made.
Target: 1.2200.
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Will EUR/USD remains above the support-line?Here, presenting the EUR/USD 15m chart. To make it easy to understand, I have used particular shapes and an indicator. ADX is less than 25 , which means a downtrend, but DI+ is above DI- which shows an uptrend. If it crosses the support line, it will fall up to certain levels 1.2090 - 1.2076 - 1.2060 . But if it does not break the support line, then the trend will touch the following levels 1.2146 - 1.2160 .