EURUSD: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD broke and closed below a key daily horizontal support.
After a retest of a broken structure, the price started to consolidate
within a narrow horizontal range.
Bearish breakout of the support of the range is a strong bearish confirmation.
The pair may continue falling to 1.1015
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Eurusdsignals
EurUsd- Could drop 150 pipsYesterday, EUR/USD saw a sharp drop from the 1.12 level, reinforcing it as a strong resistance. The pair rebounded after touching the rising trend line, but in my view, it's only a matter of time before this support is broken.
In conclusion, I am looking to sell into rallies, targeting the 1.10 support, with a stop in place should there be a daily close above 1.12.
EURUSD Bullish continuation of the Channel Up.The EURUSD pair is defying the Double Top selling pressure of the 1.12100 Resistance and it appears that there are high probabilities of extending the Bullish Leg of the June's Channel Up.
With the support of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that contained the September 11 pull-back, the trend may be targeting the pattern's top for a new Higher High. It appears that so far there is high symmetry between the July - August 2024 Leg and October - November 2023 trend (both +4.99% rises), so the current uptrend may be of around +3.85%, similar to the one of December 2023.
As a result, with the 1D MACD also on a Bullish Cross, we are targeting 1.13500 for a Higher High.
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EURUSD Sell opportunity on a Double Top.The EURUSD pair made a Double Top last week near the 1.12000 Resistance following the Fed Rate Decision (-0.50% cut) and technically this is the first sign of a potential medium-term sell opportunity.
If we examine the price action on the 1D time-frame going back 2 years (November 2020), we can see a recurring pattern. When the 1D RSI breaks above the 70.00 overbought barrier and posts a Lower Highs trend-line, a sell signal emerges, which is valid until the RSI approaches the 30.00 oversold level.
This sell signal has so far emerged 2 times (February 02 2023 and December 28 2023) and both times the pull-back that followed hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The first correction registered a -4.70% decline while the second a -4.00%.
If this is a progressive pattern, then a potential new correction on the current RSI Lower Highs (Double Top for price) should be -3.30% (0.70 less than the previous), which as you can see on the chart falls exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, this isn't just a strong sell signal but also gives us a very reliable Target at 1.08350.
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EurUsd- Fall to 1.1 once more?Last week was favorable for Euro bulls, with the price climbing back to 1.12.
However, after three failed attempts to break above this level, the price has dropped sharply today and is now resting on the 1.11 support zone.
I anticipate a break below this level, with the next target being 1.10.
My strategy is to sell into rallies, with a stop above 1.12 to negate the setup.
EURUSD Channel Down hitting its top. Sell opportunity.The EURUSD pair rebounded on Friday on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today the price is testing the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 3-week Channel Down pattern. This presents an strong sell opportunity on an excellent Risk/Reward ratio and the upside is limited to the top but the downside having much room to drop to the bottom of the Channel.
The previous Bearish Legs declined by -1.41% and -1.56% respectively. As long as the price is closing below the top of the Channel Down, our target will be the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) at 1.09900 (-1.26% from the top, negative progression relative to the previous Bearish Legs).
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EURUSD Sell signal confirmed.Last week (September 03, see chart below), we called for a major sell on the EURUSD pair as it closed a strong 1W red candle, almost at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 11-month Channel Up:
On Friday we got a strong confirmation of this sell signal as it closed in deep red and large wick on top, indicating a reversal of the short-term bounce. Naturally, today's opening to the week is equally bearish and we still expect that to be the first stage of the new Bearish Leg of the Channel Up.
We already have set a 1.0900 Target last week, which would make an ideal test of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), but this week we establish a 2nd one as well at 1.08000. That would be just above Support 1 and the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up, almost a -3.95% decline, which since July 2023 and the pair's two major Bearish Legs, has been the minimum % decline we've had.
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EurUsd- Buy dips for 1.12 retestIn my last EUR/USD commentary, I mentioned that the pair could reach 1.11.
That target was not only met but exceeded, with a top at 1.12.
The pair is currently in a normal corrective phase, and once this correction ends, EUR/USD could resume its upward movement.
My strategy is to buy on dips near the 1.10 level, with the potential for a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio depending on the stop-loss placement.
Shorter-term traders could also consider the 1.11 level as a point to take profits.
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EURUSD Long-term Sell Signal confirmed.The EURUSD pair confirmed with last week's closing the start of a new bearish sequence as it closed the 1W candle in deep red below even the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This established not only the previous High as the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 11-month Channel Up but also posted an identical long-term Top sequence as the July 17 2023 weekly candle.
As you can see on both tops a long-term series of red weeks was initiated, both of then stopping on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up. As a result, our 1.0900 medium-term bearish Target appears to be a modest one as it is where we anticipate the first wave of buyers (Support) on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) 1W MA100 (green trend-line) cluster. This may provide a bounce similar to February 12 2024.
As a side-note, notice how the 1W RSI posted a similar rejection - reversal top on the 70.00 overbought barrier, same as July 10 2023.
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EURUSD approaches mother of all Resistances from the 2008 crisisThe EURUSD pair broke through all major medium-term Resistance levels, with the latest being the 1W MA200, but is now facing perhaps the most important Resistance of all. That is the Lower Highs trend-line, that started during the height of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis on July 2008.
As you can see on this 1M time-frame, this Resistance is technically the top of the 19-year Falling Wedge pattern, which encompasses different cycles of foreign exchange price action, such as the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) turning from a multi-year Support to multi-year Resistance etc.
The presence of the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) adds more selling pressure to the current Resistance cluster, which had the last major long-term rejection on July 2023 and before that on February 2018 (along with the 1M MA200 that time).
Ideally, the sell signal will get strengthened if the 1M RSI gets rejected on its 15-year Resistance Zone. As a result, a rejection within the multi-year Falling Wedge, will most likely see EURUSD test the Symmetrical Support Zone (blue), which only broke once during the recent 2022 Inflation Crisis.
If however the price closes a 1M candle above the Lower Highs of the Wedge, we will turn bullish long-term towards the 1M MA200, aiming at around 1.2000.
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EURUSD Excellent long-term reward if you sell here.The EURUSD pair has broken above its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in more than 1 year (since the week of July 17 2023). With this move it entered the (red) Resistance Zone of the practically Rectangle pattern that it has been trading in for more than 1.5 years.
Technically, the above conditions offer a great opportunity to sell for the long-term as during this time, the pair has been rejected here two times and once on the absolute Resistance 2 level (1.12750).
As a result we will use two short positions on EURUSD, aiming to close them on profit at the end of the year. All prior rejections hit at least the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, so our Target will be slightly above it at 1.06650. From all angles, this opportunity offers solid Risk/ Reward conditions.
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EURUSD: Bullish After Breakout 🇪🇺🇺🇸
I think that EURUSD has a nice potential to go up
after a confirmed breakout of a key daily/intraday horizontal resistance cluster.
After a breakout, the price is currently retesting a broken structure.
The price already found a minor support on an hourly time frame.
I believe that the pair will reach 1.1035 level soon.
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EURUSD Aggressive selling about to start.Just last week (August 05, see chart below), we stressed on the importance of the 1W candle closing following the break above the 13-month Lower Highs trend-line (top) of the Triangle pattern:
The week eventually closed in losses (red 1W candle) and below the Lower Highs, which gave a bearish signal upon a technical rejection. This is a Double Higher High rejection similar to June 04, which initiated the previous Bearish Leg towards the Channel's bottom (Higher Lows).
As a result, we believe that it is still early to make a sell entry and target 1.07500.
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EURUSD Will the bearish or the bullish pattern prevail?The EURUSD pair broke today above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle pattern that started on the July 17 2023 high. The more shorter term pattern has been a Channel Up (blue) since the April 15 2024 Low and today's break-out, has tested its top.
Those are two conflicting trends, so the key here is to observe the 1W candle closing and then take action. A closing above the Lower Highs of the Triangle, confirms that there is a new pattern in play, a (dotted) Channel Up similar to the uptrend of October - December 2023. In that case, we will buy on the weekly close and target 1.11400 (Resistance 2).
If on the other hand the 1W candle closes back below the Lower Highs (thus still inside the blue Channel Up), we will remain bearish, aiming for a new Bearish Leg that will test again (3rd time) the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). In that case our Target will be modified to 1.075000.
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EURUSD Two clear sell entries.The EURUSD pair hit today its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since July 04 and immediately rebounded. As long as it holds, we expect a rebound to 1.0900 and then a rejection, as the long-term pattern is a Channel Up that has already priced its new Higher High (on July 17) and has started the new Bearish Leg.
If the 4H MA200 breaks first though, we will have a bearish break-out continuation confirmation. For both sell entries, our Target is 1.07300 (the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level as on the June 14 Low).
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EURUSD Analysis==>>Reversal PatternsEURUSD is moving in the Resistance zone($1.0920-$1.0870) and near the Resistance lines .
If we want to analyze the EURUSD chart from the point of view of Classical Technical Analysis , two Reversal Patterns are clearly visible: Head and Shoulders Pattern & Bump-and-Run Top Pattern .
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Educational tip :👇
The Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern forms when, after a gentle upward trend, a more aggressive one appears on the chart. The price pivots at the peak and then falls like an avalanche.
In this scenario, only professional traders survive and thrive with considerable portfolio gains. In the following section, I will teach you how to make money when there’s blood in the snow!
This pattern forms when the price rallies too far up. People second-guess themselves buying at such high prices while sellers sell confidently, causing a downward trend. This means you can see a clear reversal in the Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern. Although this pattern is considered a single entity, it consists of three separate parts or phases:
1) Normal and steady trend, called the “Lead-in Phase.” Imagine it as walking up a mountain.
2) Market participants going crazy with greed, called the “Bump Phase.” You can imagine this one as an ascent to the mountain’s peak.
3) The price falling and causing bloodshed of candles, called the “Run Phase.” At last, you ski down the snow, collecting profits on your way.
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According to Elliott's wave theory , EURUSD seems to have successfully completed five impulse waves .
Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two Consecutive Peaks .
After breaking the support trend line and Neckline , I expect EURUSD to fall at least to the Support zone($1.0820-$1.0776) .
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD), 1-hour Time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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EURUSD Volatility ahead but bearish on a 1-month horizon.The EURUSD pair is pulling back as per our last week's trading plan (July 16, see chart below) and reached the bottom of the (dashed) Bullish Leg:
The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up but as mentioned last week, the current Bullish Leg is about to get exhausted. On the previous Bullish Leg it did on a Double Top. Regardless if that takes place or not eventually and creates volatility for the next 7 days, we expect a new Bearish Leg to start and lead to and end-of-August Higher Low. Our Target remains 1.07250.
On a side-note, the 1D RSI got rejected exactly before hitting the 70.00 overbought barrier, and the last 2 times that took place in 2024, it turned out to be the most optimal medium-term Sell Signal.
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EURUSD Going for a Higher High rejection. Time the sell.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern and as we mentioned on our previous idea (July 08, see chart below), is aiming for a Higher High target at 1.09500:
Since last week, the price is getting closer to our Target and the top of the 3-month Channel Up. Based on the pattern's symmetry and the proportions between the Bullish/ Bearish Legs, once we reach 1.09500 we will reverse to a sell, targeting 1.07250 (bottom of Channel Up).
Technically, once the 4H RSI forms Higher Lows, the new bottom is formed.
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EURUSD Turning bullish short-term.The EURUSD pair closed last week above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 27 and this week is already using it as a Support to sustain further uptrend. Technically this could be the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg of the (blue) Channel Up that started on the week of June 24.
On the long-term, the pair has been trading within a fierce Triangle consolidation for exactly 1 year. The technical Support level has been the Support Zone that started back in January 2023 and the Resistance level, is the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) / 1M MA50 cluster.
Back to the Triangle's and Channel Up dynamics, last week's 1W MACD Bullish Cross formation and the bullish break-out of the 1W RSI above its Lower Highs trend-line, support being bullish on the short-term.
We will take a more modest/ cautious approach and will 'only' target 1.09500 (which is the crossroads of the Channel Up Higher Highs and Triangle Lower Highs trend-lines).
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EURUSD Is it a sell after the French far-right election win?Highly important fundamentals yesterday for EUR as the first round of elections in France ended with a significant win of the far-right wing party. Even though that's not economic news, the election results of the 2nd biggest E.U. economy, certainly have the weight to affect the largest forex pair in the world.
Mainstream economists have historically shown their preference when more stable, center parties are in governance, and certainly would like to avoid the instability that comes with a far-right party and its policies. That alone is a big factor that would call for (at least) a short-term sell on this pair.
That fundamental approach happens this time to come in complete agreement with the technical one. The pair is still forming the new Bearish Leg of the 6-month Channel Down and as we explained on our June 04 analysis (see chart below), our conservative Target is still 1.06040:
On top of that, today's High hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 2 weeks. As you can see, the symmetry between the Channel's 3 Bearish Legs (including the current one) is high and it appears that the pair has fulfilled the +1.12% counter-trend bounce that has happened on all Legs after an initial -2.30% decline. The previous one went as high as +1.50% (April 09), so there is still some small room for rejection.
Technically the new Lower Low can be as low as 1.0500 (-4.00%) but it is advisable to always book profits when the 1D RSI touches the 30.00 oversold barrier.
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