EURUSD Excellent long-term reward if you sell here.The EURUSD pair has broken above its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in more than 1 year (since the week of July 17 2023). With this move it entered the (red) Resistance Zone of the practically Rectangle pattern that it has been trading in for more than 1.5 years.
Technically, the above conditions offer a great opportunity to sell for the long-term as during this time, the pair has been rejected here two times and once on the absolute Resistance 2 level (1.12750).
As a result we will use two short positions on EURUSD, aiming to close them on profit at the end of the year. All prior rejections hit at least the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, so our Target will be slightly above it at 1.06650. From all angles, this opportunity offers solid Risk/ Reward conditions.
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Eurusdsignals
EURUSD: Bullish After Breakout 🇪🇺🇺🇸
I think that EURUSD has a nice potential to go up
after a confirmed breakout of a key daily/intraday horizontal resistance cluster.
After a breakout, the price is currently retesting a broken structure.
The price already found a minor support on an hourly time frame.
I believe that the pair will reach 1.1035 level soon.
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EURUSD Aggressive selling about to start.Just last week (August 05, see chart below), we stressed on the importance of the 1W candle closing following the break above the 13-month Lower Highs trend-line (top) of the Triangle pattern:
The week eventually closed in losses (red 1W candle) and below the Lower Highs, which gave a bearish signal upon a technical rejection. This is a Double Higher High rejection similar to June 04, which initiated the previous Bearish Leg towards the Channel's bottom (Higher Lows).
As a result, we believe that it is still early to make a sell entry and target 1.07500.
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EURUSD Will the bearish or the bullish pattern prevail?The EURUSD pair broke today above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle pattern that started on the July 17 2023 high. The more shorter term pattern has been a Channel Up (blue) since the April 15 2024 Low and today's break-out, has tested its top.
Those are two conflicting trends, so the key here is to observe the 1W candle closing and then take action. A closing above the Lower Highs of the Triangle, confirms that there is a new pattern in play, a (dotted) Channel Up similar to the uptrend of October - December 2023. In that case, we will buy on the weekly close and target 1.11400 (Resistance 2).
If on the other hand the 1W candle closes back below the Lower Highs (thus still inside the blue Channel Up), we will remain bearish, aiming for a new Bearish Leg that will test again (3rd time) the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). In that case our Target will be modified to 1.075000.
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EURUSD Two clear sell entries.The EURUSD pair hit today its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since July 04 and immediately rebounded. As long as it holds, we expect a rebound to 1.0900 and then a rejection, as the long-term pattern is a Channel Up that has already priced its new Higher High (on July 17) and has started the new Bearish Leg.
If the 4H MA200 breaks first though, we will have a bearish break-out continuation confirmation. For both sell entries, our Target is 1.07300 (the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level as on the June 14 Low).
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EURUSD Analysis==>>Reversal PatternsEURUSD is moving in the Resistance zone($1.0920-$1.0870) and near the Resistance lines .
If we want to analyze the EURUSD chart from the point of view of Classical Technical Analysis , two Reversal Patterns are clearly visible: Head and Shoulders Pattern & Bump-and-Run Top Pattern .
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Educational tip :👇
The Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern forms when, after a gentle upward trend, a more aggressive one appears on the chart. The price pivots at the peak and then falls like an avalanche.
In this scenario, only professional traders survive and thrive with considerable portfolio gains. In the following section, I will teach you how to make money when there’s blood in the snow!
This pattern forms when the price rallies too far up. People second-guess themselves buying at such high prices while sellers sell confidently, causing a downward trend. This means you can see a clear reversal in the Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern. Although this pattern is considered a single entity, it consists of three separate parts or phases:
1) Normal and steady trend, called the “Lead-in Phase.” Imagine it as walking up a mountain.
2) Market participants going crazy with greed, called the “Bump Phase.” You can imagine this one as an ascent to the mountain’s peak.
3) The price falling and causing bloodshed of candles, called the “Run Phase.” At last, you ski down the snow, collecting profits on your way.
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According to Elliott's wave theory , EURUSD seems to have successfully completed five impulse waves .
Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two Consecutive Peaks .
After breaking the support trend line and Neckline , I expect EURUSD to fall at least to the Support zone($1.0820-$1.0776) .
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD), 1-hour Time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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EURUSD Volatility ahead but bearish on a 1-month horizon.The EURUSD pair is pulling back as per our last week's trading plan (July 16, see chart below) and reached the bottom of the (dashed) Bullish Leg:
The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up but as mentioned last week, the current Bullish Leg is about to get exhausted. On the previous Bullish Leg it did on a Double Top. Regardless if that takes place or not eventually and creates volatility for the next 7 days, we expect a new Bearish Leg to start and lead to and end-of-August Higher Low. Our Target remains 1.07250.
On a side-note, the 1D RSI got rejected exactly before hitting the 70.00 overbought barrier, and the last 2 times that took place in 2024, it turned out to be the most optimal medium-term Sell Signal.
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EURUSD Going for a Higher High rejection. Time the sell.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern and as we mentioned on our previous idea (July 08, see chart below), is aiming for a Higher High target at 1.09500:
Since last week, the price is getting closer to our Target and the top of the 3-month Channel Up. Based on the pattern's symmetry and the proportions between the Bullish/ Bearish Legs, once we reach 1.09500 we will reverse to a sell, targeting 1.07250 (bottom of Channel Up).
Technically, once the 4H RSI forms Higher Lows, the new bottom is formed.
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EURUSD Turning bullish short-term.The EURUSD pair closed last week above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 27 and this week is already using it as a Support to sustain further uptrend. Technically this could be the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg of the (blue) Channel Up that started on the week of June 24.
On the long-term, the pair has been trading within a fierce Triangle consolidation for exactly 1 year. The technical Support level has been the Support Zone that started back in January 2023 and the Resistance level, is the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) / 1M MA50 cluster.
Back to the Triangle's and Channel Up dynamics, last week's 1W MACD Bullish Cross formation and the bullish break-out of the 1W RSI above its Lower Highs trend-line, support being bullish on the short-term.
We will take a more modest/ cautious approach and will 'only' target 1.09500 (which is the crossroads of the Channel Up Higher Highs and Triangle Lower Highs trend-lines).
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EURUSD Is it a sell after the French far-right election win?Highly important fundamentals yesterday for EUR as the first round of elections in France ended with a significant win of the far-right wing party. Even though that's not economic news, the election results of the 2nd biggest E.U. economy, certainly have the weight to affect the largest forex pair in the world.
Mainstream economists have historically shown their preference when more stable, center parties are in governance, and certainly would like to avoid the instability that comes with a far-right party and its policies. That alone is a big factor that would call for (at least) a short-term sell on this pair.
That fundamental approach happens this time to come in complete agreement with the technical one. The pair is still forming the new Bearish Leg of the 6-month Channel Down and as we explained on our June 04 analysis (see chart below), our conservative Target is still 1.06040:
On top of that, today's High hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 2 weeks. As you can see, the symmetry between the Channel's 3 Bearish Legs (including the current one) is high and it appears that the pair has fulfilled the +1.12% counter-trend bounce that has happened on all Legs after an initial -2.30% decline. The previous one went as high as +1.50% (April 09), so there is still some small room for rejection.
Technically the new Lower Low can be as low as 1.0500 (-4.00%) but it is advisable to always book profits when the 1D RSI touches the 30.00 oversold barrier.
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EURUSD Moment of truth for the long-term.The EURUSD pair has started the week on a very positive note as it is already on +0.40% gains. The underlying pattern remains a Channel Down since since the December 25 2023 High and we have been on its latest Bearish Leg since the June 03 Lower High.
The important dynamic recently has been the fact that the pair held and closed above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) on both last 2 weeks. This is a key Support level as the pair hasn't closed a 1W candle below it since October 23 2023.
As a result, today's rise has two reasons to be a technical retrace within a longer term bearish pattern. The price action f the past 2 years has shown that only when the 1W RSI closes above its MA (yellow trend-line), do we have very strong probabilities of sustaining a bullish trend.
It is therefore easy to understand that as the 1W RSI has come only a few points away from its MA, this week becomes crucial for the EURUSD pair. Until it breaks it, we will stay bearish, targeting 1.06040 (Support level and previous Lower Low).
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EURUSD on a counter-trend rebound but still bearish long-term.The EURUSD pair isn't diverging from our original plan (June 04 idea, see chart below) and is extending the new Bearish Leg of the 6-month Channel Down:
Today it tested the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) of a counter-trend rebound, which has take place during both previous Bearish Legs. The 1st time was +1.12% and the 2nd +1.50% that even broke above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Having formed the new 4H Bearish Cross last Friday (first since March 28), this rise is the final sell opportunity (technically) before a new Lower Low. Our Target remains more modest at 1.06040 (Support and previous Lower Low) but we will take profit earlier if the 1D RSI hits 30.00 first.
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EURUSD The new Bearish Leg has started.On our last analysis EURUSD analysis (June 04, see chart below) we mentioned that it was a do-or-die moment for a rejection as it had marginally broken above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 5-month Channel Down:
As you can see the price did close all subsequent candles below the top and inside the pattern, hence confirming the rejection bias and that the downtrend was still intact. The last two strong bearish days, suggest that the new Bearish Leg has started, especially since yesterday's 1D candle closed below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time in a month (since May 10).
Our Target remains 1.06040 (Support 1), which is still a 'good case scenario' for the bearish event as it is above the % drop of the weakest Bearish Leg, the one right before the current (at -3.45%). Ideally, we expect to see the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) being the Resistance throughout the whole Leg.
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EURUSD Bullish break-out or Bearish rejection?The EURUSD pair cemented a strong rebound yesterday as it broke above the May 16 High, after it held the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. This took yesterday's 1D candle exactly at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the December 28 2023 Channel Down.
This is the last chance for the pair to resume the pattern's downtrend, if today's 1D candle closes inside the Channel Down, which will constitute a Lower Highs rejection. In that case, we will require a closing below the 1D MA50 as well in order to confirm the downtrend. The 1.0640 Support will be the Target.
If however the candle closes above the Channel Down, it will be a confirmed bullish break-out and in our opinion there will be high probabilities of imitating the July 2023 rally. That rise peaked exactly on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level, so on that occasion, that will be our Target (1.1125), which conveniently falls just below the 1.11400 Resistance. Notice also how similar the 1D RSI sequences are between the two fractals.
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EurUsd- Rise to text 1.1 important figure?After reaching a low of around 1.06 in mid-April, FX:EURUSD began to recover and broke above the descending trend line in mid-May, potentially indicating a trend reversal.
Recently, the pair also formed a bullish flag, further supporting a bullish outlook.
As long as the price stays above 1.0750, there is a strong possibility of testing the 1.1 resistance level.
EURUSD Channel Down looking for a Lower Low.The EURUSD pair gave us last week (May 17, see chart below), the ideal Lower High sell entry, as the price got rejected exactly where we wanted it to at the top of the 5-month Channel Down:
We now view this price action from the 1D time-frame where the 1D MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross. Every time in the past 6 months this was formed above the 0.00 level, it was a confirmation that the pair would go after at least a -2.35% decline.
This is perfectly aligned with Target 2 (1.06550) on Support 2. Target 1 (1.07300) is just above Support 1, both of which are estimated in accordance to the March Bearish Leg, which also hit its Support 1 and 2 before a rebound.
It has to be noted also that while Target 2 represents a -2.35% decline, it would also make contact with the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is practically our long-term Support, having held and caused rebounds both on the April 16 2024 Low and before that on the November 10 2023 Low.
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EURUSD Perfect level to sell on the Lower HighThe EURUSD pair hit the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 5-month Channel Down and got immediately rejected. This pull-back is most likely the start of the new Bearish Leg on its way for a Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern.
Technically, we are on almost perfect symmetry with the previous Leg, which formed a Lower High after a 4H Golden Cross. When the 4H MACD completed a Bearish Cross on the 0.00240 level (which is where we are now), the sell signal was confirmed.
As a result, we most likely have the most optimal sell confirmation right now. Target 1 is just above Support 1 at 1.07300 and Target 2 just above Support 2 at 1.06550.
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EURUSD 1st 4H GoldenCross since February! Breakout or rejection?The EURUSD pair completed on Friday its first Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame since February 29. Technically that is a bullish pattern but we are only willing to treat it as a buy opportunity if the pair closes a 4H candle above the Lower Highs trend-line).
If it does, we will most likely have a bullish break-out like March 06 towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level or the top of the Channel Down. This is at least what the symmetrical Bullish Leg of the Channel Down did following the Feb 29 4H Golden Cross and topped on March 08. In that case our Target will be 1.08350 (Fib 0.618).
Until that 4H candle closing, we will be selling the Lower Highs rejection, targeting 1.06550 (just above Support 1), which is what happened on March 22. Notice that the 4H RSI pattern is more similar currently to March 13.
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EURUSD Channel Top and Fib Resistance. Time to turn bearish.The EURUSD pair gave us an excellent pull-back buy entry last week (April 30, see chart below) and has almost reached our 1.08300 Target, which was the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level:
We now turn bearish as not only is the price near the 0.618 Fib but also hit on Friday and gor rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line)/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) cluster. Above all, we are near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2024 Channel Down.
The last Lower Low was priced just above the 1.236 Fib extension, which on the current Leg happens to be exactly on the 1.05175 Support. As a result our new Target for the medium-term is 1.05350 (just above the 1.236 Fib ext).
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EURUSD Short-term Bull Flag targeting top of Channel Down.EURUSD held the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support both today and on Friday and is rebounding. This is a short-term Bull Flag within the 4-month Channel Down pattern that is targeting its top (Lower Highs trend-line).
As per the previous Bullish Leg of the Channel, we are targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.08300.
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