EURUSD Will the Fed's unchanged rate pressure the pair more?The EURUSD pair is extending its downtrend within the 1-month Channel Down and basically this is a quick update to our most recent analysis (January 19, see chart below) on the 1D time-frame:
Following the Fed Rate Decision yesterday, which left it unchanged at 5.50% and made clear they are in no rush to cut rates, we think it would be helpful to look at the 4H time-frame again and identify additional trade opportunities.
Based on the comparison with the previous Bearish Leg (dotted Channel Down, July - September 2023) of the long-term Channel Down (blue), yesterday's rejection on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) puts the price action on a similar level as August 22 2023. This suggests that after this rejection is completed, we will get one final rebound that shouldn't break the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and which should be the final sell opportunity before testing the 1W MA200 (yellow trend-line) and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
Perhaps the ideal signal to enter this additional medium-term sell, would be when the 4H RSI turns overbought again at 70.00, similar to the August 30 (Lower) High. As you can see on the chart, our sell trading plan has Target 1 at 1.07500 and Target 2 at 1.06500 (1W MA200 contact).
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Eurusdsignals
EURUSD: Can We Expect a Pullback?! 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD may retrace from a key daily structure support.
After its test, the price broke and closed above a resistance line
of a falling wedge pattern on a 4H time frame.
It feels like the price may bounce ahead of FED rate decision tonight.
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EURUSD BEARS LOOKING FOR MORE DOWNSIDE !!!Hello Traders
EURUSD is now trading in downtrend and ECB also looking for rate cuts so our expectations are a down till these design levels friends our R & R ratio is great on this trade lets see what markets give us this week have look on our Other analysis so you can understand why we are buying $ this week this is just an trade idea make a proper analysis before any trade and share
Ur thoughts with us in comments on EURUSD it help alot of traders
Stay tuned for more updates .......
EURUSD Strong MA squeeze most likely breaking downwardsThe EURUSD pair is on a very tight consolidation within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the past 3 days. The long-term pattern is a Channel Down and this correction can be the start of the new Bearish Leg.
The 1D RSI pattern resembles the Bearish Leg of July - September 2023, which below the 1D MA50 targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1W MA200 (yellow trend-line) which also did another 2 times before.
As a result our first Target is 1.07250 (Fib 0.618) and if we get a 1D candle closing below the 0.618 Fib, we will extend the target at 1.06500.
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EurUsd- Strongly bearish under 1.0950As mentioned in my analysis of OANDA:EURUSD from two days ago, the pair failed to break above 1.1. Consequently, there was a potential for it to dip below the support level and continue its decline to the next significant support at 1.0750.
Indeed, the price dropped below the support zone and hit a local low at 1.0845 yesterday. Currently, the pair is undergoing an upward correction, presenting an opportunity for short trades.
In my view, any rallies toward 1.0950 should be considered for selling. Depending on risk tolerance and patience, the target can be set at either the recent low of 1.0850 or the major support at 1.0750.
The negation of this scenario occurs if EURUSD manages to break above 1.1.
EurUsd- Will it break support and dive to 1.0750?Last week, I held a bullish stance on Eur/Usd, anticipating a breakthrough above the crucial 1.1 resistance level. Unfortunately, the pair's inability to surpass this significant threshold led me to close my trade at breakeven, prompting a decision to adopt a wait-and-see approach for further clarification.
Examining the recent price action, it appears that my patience might be rewarded with a clearer picture emerging. Currently, my perspective has shifted to bearish.
The chart illustrates that Eur/Usd is struggling to breach the 1.1 mark and instead continues to decline to support around 1.0920.
This inability to surpass 1.1 and dropping to support after touching this level, signifies weakness, raising the likelihood of a downward move below the support level.
In such a scenario, the pair could experience an acceleration in losses, with the next notable target standing at the critical support level of 1.0750.
EURUSD New Low is expected after the 1D MA50 breaks.The EURUSD pair has had a strong rejection last time we looked at it on the 1D time-frame (December 28 2023, see chart below), getting rejected exactly on Resistance 1 (1.1151) towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is so far holding:
This is basically an update to this. We are on the exact same moments as August 11 2023, May 12 2023 and February 13 2023 when the 1D MA50 broke to the downside and the price turned it into Resistance. On all occasions the last Higher Low of the Channel Up was tested. This is why we maintain our medium-term target at 1.07250 (Support 1).
Notice that the 1D RSI sequence is also similar to the August 2023 and February 2023 pre break-out consolidation (red circles).
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EURUSD The 1D MA50 is the difference between bullish and bearishThe EURUSD pair gave us the best possible sell signal on our December 28 2023 idea (see chart below) as we sold exactly at the top, provided by the overbought 1D RSI:
We now shift our focus from the long-term to the medium-term as the price reached the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up and is consolidating around the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and within exactly the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Resistance and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) as Support.
The 4H RSI has printed an identical pattern with the December 08 -11 Higher Low formation and as long as the 1D MA50 holds, we are taking a short-term buy towards Resistance 1 at 1.11300. If the 1D MA50 breaks (candle closing below it), we will quickly take the loss and sell instead targeting Support 1 at 1.07250, which has always been our long-term Target.
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EURUSD Bearish Wave about to start. RSI overbought.The EURUSD pair easily hit our 1.10500 target, which we set on the previous analysis (see chart below) on December 19:
We now shift back again to the 1D time-frame where the 1D RSI is about to hit the 70.00 level and turn overbought, while the price being near the top of the 3-month Channel Up. As you can see, similar Channel Up patterns have existed since November of 2022 and all broke downwards to at least a -4.15% decline, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
On the current pattern, the 1D MA5 has not been touched since the November 03 break-out. With Resistance 1 waiting at 1.11510 and the maximum total rise we have seen in the past 1 year without a -4% decline being +7.15%, currently being at 1.1200, we treat the current zone as the most efficient Sell Entry since July 18.
A new -4.22% decline would test Support 1 at 1.7250 and that is our medium-term target.
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EURUSD → Second Rejection at 1.10! Short to 1.06? Let's Answer.EURUSD was rejected twice at the Resistance Zone and ended last week with a bear bar closing on its low! Should we short here?
How do we trade this? 🤔
Short answer (pun intended!), yes! My analysis from last week showed the price action around 1.078 which is right on the EMA support ribbons. Too far away from resistance to short, too far away from the Support Zone to long. The EMA ribbons themselves are support as we now can see, the price action has bounced off of them back to the Resistance Zone.
Now that we've seen a second rejection, that's our confirmation to short. The first was our signal, second our confirmation and because the bar closed on its low, we have optimal probability to enter a short position here. Target 1:2 Risk/Reward with a protective stop just above the double top at 1.10, then target the 1.06 area to take profits. Look for a bull response at the 1.06 area, a potential long opportunity using the same trade management style as this one. Refer to my analysis from last week for that setup:
Additional Note:
We're trading the Daily chart here, this trading range came after a bull channel which in isolation, should give us a long bias while we're between 1.06 and 1.10. However, zooming out to the Weekly chart shows us we're rejecting price off of the 200EMA. It's reasonable to have a short-term bull bias in this range, but caution should be used in either direction because of that Weekly 200EMA.
💡 Trade Ideas 💡
Short Entry: 1.089
🟥 Stop Loss: $0.955
✅ Take Profit: 1.057
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Two Rejections at Resistance Zone, Bias to Short.
2. Second Rejection Bear Bar Closing on its Low. Run Short to 1.06 Area.
3. 1:2 Risk/Reward Ratio, Watch Out for Support at EMA Ribbons.
4. RSI at 55.00 and above Moving Average, Needs to Fall Below.
5. Also Reasonable to Scalp 1:1 and Move Stop Up to Entry.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
Probability of profit increases dramatically when you wait for what is called "confirmation" on the chart. This comes after a signal bar closes, indicating the next moves on the chart.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
EURUSD Blow-off top incomingThe EURUSD pair broke again above the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is trading within two Channel Up patterns: a wider (blue) one and the shorter term dotted one. The 1H MACD indicates that we are on the same level as the November 23 MA50 break-out that peaked on the 1.382 Fibonacci.
As a result, as long as the dotted Channel Up holds, we are bullish short-term, targeting 1.10500 (1.382 Fibonacci extension). If the pattern breaks, we will sell and target the -1.00 Fibonacci extension at 1.07700.
Related material (previous trade):
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EurUsd could rise above 1.1After the recent top above 1.1, FX:EURUSD fell pretty strongly to 1.0750 support.
This support held strongly and, after a short-lived dip under it on Friday, the pair recovered and is trading at 1.0904 at the time of writing.
the outlook for the pair is bullish and will remain like this as long as 1.0830 is intact.
Buy dips is my strategy and we could have a new local high for this pair towards 1.11 resistance
EurUsd could rebound from support zoneAs anticipated, EUR/USD rose and reached the significant 1.1 threshold. Right after testing this resistance level, the pair experienced a sharp decline, plummeting by more than 200 pips within a few days, suggesting the possibility of a market top.
Currently, the pair is trading just above the support level (1.0760-1.0770 zone). In the short term, there's potential for a rebound, leading to a correction of the recent downturn and a rise to the 1.09 zone.
For more conservative traders, this rebound could serve as a selling opportunity, anticipating a breach of the support level and a subsequent decline toward the 1.05 zone.
EURUSD Is anyone considering this pattern?The EURUSD pair gave us a very successful sell signal two weeks ago (see chart below) and is on its way to hit our 1.07650 medium-term target:
What we haven't at the time considered as a possibility, but we clearly see it now, is the emergence of a Channel Down, if of course the November 29 High holds, that can break the current Megaphone pattern downwards, in a new long-term bearish trend.
As you can see this emerging blue Channel Down so far had two symmetrical bullish sequences to Lower Highs of around +5.50% to +5.99%. The first test of the Lower High rejection has been the Support 1 (1.08250) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support Cluster. So far they both broke but yesterday's candle closed above them, which leaves a neutral tone.
If today's 1D candle closes below, we can expect an extension similar to August 02 which hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The longer the 1D RSI takes to reach the 30.00 oversold barrier, the more likely it is for the Channel Down to prevail over the Megaphone.
If in turn, the pair closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 too, we expect a test of Support 3 at 1.04500, almost the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone. If however the 1D MA50 holds and closes the candles above it, you can expect a rebound to at least the top of the Channel Down.
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EURUSD: 04/12/2023: Sell scenarioWell as you can see, the price broke the major low, so we are bearish now and looking for a sell setup.
In this case, we can define the supply zone (the bearish order block).
If the price reaches this zone we can execute the sell position with LTF confirmation.
Please pay attention it's not investment advice.
Do your own research.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓04/12/2023
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
EURUSD ANALYSIS UPDATE 21/NOV/2023Now, it's obvious that the ascending channel resistance I talked about on the 4h timeframe this morning seems to be holding. You can see how the price is rejecting the resistance and has closed lower than the 1.09500 level. Also, a counter trendline I drew has been broken to the downside which acts as added confluence for a possible continuation downwards. This means there's a very high chance that the price will retest that level as resistance and continue downwards.
EURUSD Overbought 1D RSI after 4months. Strong 1year sell signalThe EURUSD pair is about to hit the 1.10000 target that we placed on our trading call (see chart below) earlier this month (Nov 06), and it might be a good idea to secure the majority of longs with at least an SL above 1.0900:
The target will complete a +5.48% rise from the bottom, which is the typical length of the standard rallies that the pair has given us inside the whole year 2023. With the price however hitting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level while the 1D RSI turned overbought above 70.00 for the first time in 4 months (July 18 last time), the selling pressure should start pilling up for the pair.
The last 3 times the 1D RSI was overbought within the past 12 months, the price broke under the selling pressure and declined at least by -2.37%, hitting (and once approaching) the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As a result, this is starting to fulfil most criteria for a starting sell entry. Despite the presence of Support 1 (1.08250) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), we will aim for that -2.37% minimum (projected) decline and target 1.07650.
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EURUSD Pull-back expected. Take advantage of it.The EURUSD pair followed the exact path that we pointed out on our last analysis (see chart below) as it gave a buy opportunity after a pull-back on the 1D MA50 and rebounded aggressively following yesterday's lower than expected U.S. CPI:
A new pattern has emerged since, a Bullish Megaphone, with the price hitting yesterday's its top (Higher Highs trend-line). We expect a technical pull-back and rebound either on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level or upon a -1.38% decline. Pay attention also on the 4H RSI Higher Lows Zone for a potential bottom. Our target is slightly lower now at 1.09750, which represents a +2.20% rise from the bottom, similar to the other two within the Bullish Megaphone.
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EURUSD 4H : Support further decline EURUSD
New forecast
The euro/dollar pair rose during the day to reach support at the 1.0700 level, showing some slight upward bias, waiting to encourage the price to resume negative trading and test the 1.0661 level initially, remembering that breaking this level will push the price to achieve negative targets starting at 1.0632 and extending to 1.0612. .
Therefore, the downward trend will remain effective, keeping in mind that breaching 1.0718 will lead the price to achieve additional gains before any new attempt to decline.
The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 1.0718 and support line 1.0661.
Additionally ,Today News will affect the market .
resistance line : 1.0700 , 1.0718
support line : 1.0686 , 1.0661
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
EURUSDWillson came to visit bro 😁
The euro pared back its recent gains post-NFP with several US central bank speakers 'outperforming' their European Central Bank (ECB) counterparts. In particular, the Fed's Logan and Bowman emphasized the resilience of the US economy and the likely need for further interest rate hikes. In short, Fed officials will likely adopt a 'wait and see' approach as more data is needed after the recent NFP miss.
EURUSD Bullish break-out above 1D MA50. Buy the pull-back.The EURUSD pair hit of the both targets (see chart below) we set on our recent idea (October 30):
The price broke and closed above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 10, which is a major medium-term bullish break-out signal. The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is right above but technically after breaking Resistance 1 (1.07375), it eyes Resistance 2 next (1.09455).
The 1D CCI is on Higher Highs and this is consistent with the mid-rally consolidation on both of the previous rebound legs of the 2023 Megaphone pattern. In fact, every time the pair closed a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, it later pulled back on it to test it as a Support and resumed the rally. The eventual peaks have completed at least a +5.47% rise.
As a result, we are looking for a pull-back in order to buy again and target 1.1000 (less than +5.47% rise from the bottom).
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EURUSD New bullish wave incoming. 1st 4H Golden Cross in 4monthsThe EURUSD pair hit both of our targets on the latest bullish signal (see chart below) we gave on October 16, as it completed a technical Higher High on October's Channel Up:
The price is now staging the new bullish leg as it established the new Higher Low on the Channel Up. Even though the recent Higher High was rejected on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which is a bearish sign long-term, the emerging 4H Golden Cross (first since June 19), has the strength to invalidate that rejection.
As a result, a closing above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) will be a buy break-out entry for us, targeting 1.07125 (+1.85% rise from the bottom) and 1.07375 (Resistance 2) in extension. Note that as with every Channel Up bottom so far, the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross.
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