EURUSD The 1D MA50 is the difference between bullish and bearishThe EURUSD pair gave us the best possible sell signal on our December 28 2023 idea (see chart below) as we sold exactly at the top, provided by the overbought 1D RSI:
We now shift our focus from the long-term to the medium-term as the price reached the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up and is consolidating around the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and within exactly the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Resistance and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) as Support.
The 4H RSI has printed an identical pattern with the December 08 -11 Higher Low formation and as long as the 1D MA50 holds, we are taking a short-term buy towards Resistance 1 at 1.11300. If the 1D MA50 breaks (candle closing below it), we will quickly take the loss and sell instead targeting Support 1 at 1.07250, which has always been our long-term Target.
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Eurusdsignals
EURUSD Bearish Wave about to start. RSI overbought.The EURUSD pair easily hit our 1.10500 target, which we set on the previous analysis (see chart below) on December 19:
We now shift back again to the 1D time-frame where the 1D RSI is about to hit the 70.00 level and turn overbought, while the price being near the top of the 3-month Channel Up. As you can see, similar Channel Up patterns have existed since November of 2022 and all broke downwards to at least a -4.15% decline, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
On the current pattern, the 1D MA5 has not been touched since the November 03 break-out. With Resistance 1 waiting at 1.11510 and the maximum total rise we have seen in the past 1 year without a -4% decline being +7.15%, currently being at 1.1200, we treat the current zone as the most efficient Sell Entry since July 18.
A new -4.22% decline would test Support 1 at 1.7250 and that is our medium-term target.
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EURUSD → Second Rejection at 1.10! Short to 1.06? Let's Answer.EURUSD was rejected twice at the Resistance Zone and ended last week with a bear bar closing on its low! Should we short here?
How do we trade this? 🤔
Short answer (pun intended!), yes! My analysis from last week showed the price action around 1.078 which is right on the EMA support ribbons. Too far away from resistance to short, too far away from the Support Zone to long. The EMA ribbons themselves are support as we now can see, the price action has bounced off of them back to the Resistance Zone.
Now that we've seen a second rejection, that's our confirmation to short. The first was our signal, second our confirmation and because the bar closed on its low, we have optimal probability to enter a short position here. Target 1:2 Risk/Reward with a protective stop just above the double top at 1.10, then target the 1.06 area to take profits. Look for a bull response at the 1.06 area, a potential long opportunity using the same trade management style as this one. Refer to my analysis from last week for that setup:
Additional Note:
We're trading the Daily chart here, this trading range came after a bull channel which in isolation, should give us a long bias while we're between 1.06 and 1.10. However, zooming out to the Weekly chart shows us we're rejecting price off of the 200EMA. It's reasonable to have a short-term bull bias in this range, but caution should be used in either direction because of that Weekly 200EMA.
💡 Trade Ideas 💡
Short Entry: 1.089
🟥 Stop Loss: $0.955
✅ Take Profit: 1.057
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Two Rejections at Resistance Zone, Bias to Short.
2. Second Rejection Bear Bar Closing on its Low. Run Short to 1.06 Area.
3. 1:2 Risk/Reward Ratio, Watch Out for Support at EMA Ribbons.
4. RSI at 55.00 and above Moving Average, Needs to Fall Below.
5. Also Reasonable to Scalp 1:1 and Move Stop Up to Entry.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
Probability of profit increases dramatically when you wait for what is called "confirmation" on the chart. This comes after a signal bar closes, indicating the next moves on the chart.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
EURUSD Blow-off top incomingThe EURUSD pair broke again above the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is trading within two Channel Up patterns: a wider (blue) one and the shorter term dotted one. The 1H MACD indicates that we are on the same level as the November 23 MA50 break-out that peaked on the 1.382 Fibonacci.
As a result, as long as the dotted Channel Up holds, we are bullish short-term, targeting 1.10500 (1.382 Fibonacci extension). If the pattern breaks, we will sell and target the -1.00 Fibonacci extension at 1.07700.
Related material (previous trade):
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EurUsd could rise above 1.1After the recent top above 1.1, FX:EURUSD fell pretty strongly to 1.0750 support.
This support held strongly and, after a short-lived dip under it on Friday, the pair recovered and is trading at 1.0904 at the time of writing.
the outlook for the pair is bullish and will remain like this as long as 1.0830 is intact.
Buy dips is my strategy and we could have a new local high for this pair towards 1.11 resistance
EurUsd could rebound from support zoneAs anticipated, EUR/USD rose and reached the significant 1.1 threshold. Right after testing this resistance level, the pair experienced a sharp decline, plummeting by more than 200 pips within a few days, suggesting the possibility of a market top.
Currently, the pair is trading just above the support level (1.0760-1.0770 zone). In the short term, there's potential for a rebound, leading to a correction of the recent downturn and a rise to the 1.09 zone.
For more conservative traders, this rebound could serve as a selling opportunity, anticipating a breach of the support level and a subsequent decline toward the 1.05 zone.
EURUSD Is anyone considering this pattern?The EURUSD pair gave us a very successful sell signal two weeks ago (see chart below) and is on its way to hit our 1.07650 medium-term target:
What we haven't at the time considered as a possibility, but we clearly see it now, is the emergence of a Channel Down, if of course the November 29 High holds, that can break the current Megaphone pattern downwards, in a new long-term bearish trend.
As you can see this emerging blue Channel Down so far had two symmetrical bullish sequences to Lower Highs of around +5.50% to +5.99%. The first test of the Lower High rejection has been the Support 1 (1.08250) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support Cluster. So far they both broke but yesterday's candle closed above them, which leaves a neutral tone.
If today's 1D candle closes below, we can expect an extension similar to August 02 which hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The longer the 1D RSI takes to reach the 30.00 oversold barrier, the more likely it is for the Channel Down to prevail over the Megaphone.
If in turn, the pair closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 too, we expect a test of Support 3 at 1.04500, almost the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone. If however the 1D MA50 holds and closes the candles above it, you can expect a rebound to at least the top of the Channel Down.
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EURUSD: 04/12/2023: Sell scenarioWell as you can see, the price broke the major low, so we are bearish now and looking for a sell setup.
In this case, we can define the supply zone (the bearish order block).
If the price reaches this zone we can execute the sell position with LTF confirmation.
Please pay attention it's not investment advice.
Do your own research.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓04/12/2023
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
EURUSD ANALYSIS UPDATE 21/NOV/2023Now, it's obvious that the ascending channel resistance I talked about on the 4h timeframe this morning seems to be holding. You can see how the price is rejecting the resistance and has closed lower than the 1.09500 level. Also, a counter trendline I drew has been broken to the downside which acts as added confluence for a possible continuation downwards. This means there's a very high chance that the price will retest that level as resistance and continue downwards.
EURUSD Overbought 1D RSI after 4months. Strong 1year sell signalThe EURUSD pair is about to hit the 1.10000 target that we placed on our trading call (see chart below) earlier this month (Nov 06), and it might be a good idea to secure the majority of longs with at least an SL above 1.0900:
The target will complete a +5.48% rise from the bottom, which is the typical length of the standard rallies that the pair has given us inside the whole year 2023. With the price however hitting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level while the 1D RSI turned overbought above 70.00 for the first time in 4 months (July 18 last time), the selling pressure should start pilling up for the pair.
The last 3 times the 1D RSI was overbought within the past 12 months, the price broke under the selling pressure and declined at least by -2.37%, hitting (and once approaching) the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As a result, this is starting to fulfil most criteria for a starting sell entry. Despite the presence of Support 1 (1.08250) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), we will aim for that -2.37% minimum (projected) decline and target 1.07650.
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EURUSD Pull-back expected. Take advantage of it.The EURUSD pair followed the exact path that we pointed out on our last analysis (see chart below) as it gave a buy opportunity after a pull-back on the 1D MA50 and rebounded aggressively following yesterday's lower than expected U.S. CPI:
A new pattern has emerged since, a Bullish Megaphone, with the price hitting yesterday's its top (Higher Highs trend-line). We expect a technical pull-back and rebound either on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level or upon a -1.38% decline. Pay attention also on the 4H RSI Higher Lows Zone for a potential bottom. Our target is slightly lower now at 1.09750, which represents a +2.20% rise from the bottom, similar to the other two within the Bullish Megaphone.
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EURUSD 4H : Support further decline EURUSD
New forecast
The euro/dollar pair rose during the day to reach support at the 1.0700 level, showing some slight upward bias, waiting to encourage the price to resume negative trading and test the 1.0661 level initially, remembering that breaking this level will push the price to achieve negative targets starting at 1.0632 and extending to 1.0612. .
Therefore, the downward trend will remain effective, keeping in mind that breaching 1.0718 will lead the price to achieve additional gains before any new attempt to decline.
The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 1.0718 and support line 1.0661.
Additionally ,Today News will affect the market .
resistance line : 1.0700 , 1.0718
support line : 1.0686 , 1.0661
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
EURUSDWillson came to visit bro 😁
The euro pared back its recent gains post-NFP with several US central bank speakers 'outperforming' their European Central Bank (ECB) counterparts. In particular, the Fed's Logan and Bowman emphasized the resilience of the US economy and the likely need for further interest rate hikes. In short, Fed officials will likely adopt a 'wait and see' approach as more data is needed after the recent NFP miss.
EURUSD Bullish break-out above 1D MA50. Buy the pull-back.The EURUSD pair hit of the both targets (see chart below) we set on our recent idea (October 30):
The price broke and closed above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 10, which is a major medium-term bullish break-out signal. The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is right above but technically after breaking Resistance 1 (1.07375), it eyes Resistance 2 next (1.09455).
The 1D CCI is on Higher Highs and this is consistent with the mid-rally consolidation on both of the previous rebound legs of the 2023 Megaphone pattern. In fact, every time the pair closed a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, it later pulled back on it to test it as a Support and resumed the rally. The eventual peaks have completed at least a +5.47% rise.
As a result, we are looking for a pull-back in order to buy again and target 1.1000 (less than +5.47% rise from the bottom).
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EURUSD New bullish wave incoming. 1st 4H Golden Cross in 4monthsThe EURUSD pair hit both of our targets on the latest bullish signal (see chart below) we gave on October 16, as it completed a technical Higher High on October's Channel Up:
The price is now staging the new bullish leg as it established the new Higher Low on the Channel Up. Even though the recent Higher High was rejected on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which is a bearish sign long-term, the emerging 4H Golden Cross (first since June 19), has the strength to invalidate that rejection.
As a result, a closing above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) will be a buy break-out entry for us, targeting 1.07125 (+1.85% rise from the bottom) and 1.07375 (Resistance 2) in extension. Note that as with every Channel Up bottom so far, the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross.
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EURUSD Analysis. Signal for next week.Hello everyone. i want share my idea about EURUSD.
After big bearish movement we see some consolidation but there is not any sing for trend change. Price action is easy to identify where it will go, i think the trend will continue and the reason is price falling and dollar index bullish movements which is strong with also fundamentally.
Here is my setup for this trade.
Open Position - 1.059
Stop Loss - 1.069
Take Profit - 1.03
Always Make your own research!!! Manage risk!!!
EURUSD MACD Bullish Cross is about to reverse the bearish trend!The EURUSD pair is on the verge of a medium-term trend shift from bearish to bullish as:
1) Not only did it form the 1st MA50 (blue trend-line) / MA100 (green trend-line) Bullish Cross on the 4H time-frame since July 12
2) But also is about to complete the 3rd rising Bullish Cross on the 4H MACD.
Those two can give shape to a Channel Up pattern that will target the two main Resistance levels, the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) at 1.06350 and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) at 1.06850. Target 1 is neatly placed just under Resistance 1 while Target 2 near the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the emerging Channel Up.
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EURUSD Still bearish but buy above the Channel Down.The EURUSD pair is emphatically breaking above the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) with the only time it has done so since this July Channel Down started being on August 30. The signal to sell has always been a 4H MACD Bearish Cross, so this is what we will wait for in order to lower the risk. If successful, we will target 1.0400 (-2.33% decline as the previous bearish legs). If however the price crosses above the Channel Down first and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) we will buy the break-out and target the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) at 1.0785.
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EurUsd at crossroadsSince the recent top from mid-July, EurUsd dropped 800 pips, counting from top to bottom.
Recently, the pair found support shy under 1.05 and today, we are already in the 5th consecutive green day.
Looking at the chart we can see that the pair is at a crossroads at this moment and anything could happen.
On one hand, the trend is still bearish and under important confluence resistance given by the falling trend line and the horizontal resistance from 1.0630
On the other hand, a break above this level should lead to a deeper correction towards 1.08
The best approach is to wait and see for either a break up, or a reversal candle from this level.
EURUSD Don't trust this short-term rebound for a second.The EURUSD had a 2-day rise that almost touched the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is the counter trend rebound towards the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2 month Channel Down. The 4H MA50 hasn't been broken since September 20 but even if it does, we are far from turning bullish. As long as it remains below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), it is a sell opportunity, targeting 1.03500 (bottom of Channel Down, above both the standard -2.34% decline and 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
Only a closing above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) can justify a bullish break-out (medium-term). The 4H RSI is forming the same kind of pattern it did on the last 4H MA100 rejection.
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EurUsd- In search for next supportAfter reaching the important 1.05 support last week, EurUsd corrected to the upside.
However, this correction was short-lived and, after touching 1.0620 resistance, the pair started to fall again.
Yesterday we also had a drop under 1.05 and at this moment EurUsd is trading at 1.0466.
The trend remains strongly bearish and the road is clear to 1.0360 next support.
As long as the pair is trading under 1.06, sell rallies should be the strategy
EurUsd- Bottom could be in place. At least for now.A few days ago I drew attention that, although the trend for EurUsd is strongly bearish, sellers should be careful at the proximity of a major support around 1.05.
The pair reversed yesterday exactly from this zone and is trading now towards 1.06.
In my opinion, a bottom could be in place, at least for now and traders should look to buy dips against this 1.05 level.
The target could be set around 1.07 resistance.