EURUSD Approaching the ultimate Support Cluster. Long-term buy.The EURUSD pair gave us the decline we wanted as described on our last analysis 10 days ago:
The price is now approaching Support Zone (1.04800 - 1.04500), which is also around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. The Support Cluster is getting extremely strong considering that the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) is right below, which supported the price with an extremely strong rebound on January 06 2023 and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which was the Resistance level during 2022 Bear Market. On top of those, add the September 28 Higher Lows.
Our strategy is to buy when the 1D RSI gets oversold, which is recent years it has always delivered a rebound to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The Target 1 range is within 1.06500 - 1.0700 depending on whether the price rebounds the next week or in two.
Beyond that, if we close a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, we will buy again and aim at the February Resistance of 1.10300 (Target 2). If not, we will short the Higher Lows break-out and buy inside Support Zone 2, where the 0.5 Fibonacci extension is.
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Eurusdsignals
EURUSD 4H Death Cross and CPI turning it bearish.The EURUSD pair formed a Death Cross on the 4H chart, the first such formation since August 22 2022. Coupled with a higher than expected CPI today and the fact that the price closed below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since November 03 2022, makes this potentially bearish for the next 10-15 days.
The confirmation to sell however will be below yesterday's low and the target 1.0470 (top of Support Zone 2), as we have to account for the fact that on the short-term the Death Cross can deliver a counter trend rally, similar to what happened in August (see chart on the right). In fact the 4H Golden Cross used to delived a sell-off, while the Death Cross a rally. Consider however that the market was on a long-term downtrend at the time. Still, if we break today's High, we will buy targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci level (same as on September 12 2022) and then sell heavily towards Support Zone 2.
The RSI is on a huge bearish divergence (Lower Lows).
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EurUsd- Back towards 1.09?Friday, EurUsd closed under 1.07 important support
However, yesterday the pair lacked continuation and got back pretty quickly above this level.
The market seems to be positioning for "positive" CPI data and in such an instance a rally could follow for EurUsd.
I'm bullish as long as 1.0650 is intact and 1.09 could be the target in the short term.
EURUSD Last low before a strong rebound?The EURUSD pair has hit the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) for the second time this week and so far that is keeping it within the Channel Up of November. The 4H RSI however shows that it may be repeating the Double Bottom pattern of the first week of January and in that case could hit the Buy Zone again. When that happened then, the price made a Lower Low on January 06 before rebounding.
This Lower Low is our tolerance level of accepting a marginal break below the Channel Up and still maintain a bullish perspective. The short-term target is the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and if broken the medium-term target is the 1.10300 Resistance.
A closing below the Lower Lows will be bearish, targeting the top of Support Zone 2.
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EURUSD Will it find Support on the 1D MA50?The EURUSD pair has suffered a more than -2% decline in the past two days following the NFP report on Friday. The price broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is marginally above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). This level hasn't been reached in a month (January 06). The majojor Support of this long-term uptrend however is the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line), which has been untouched since November 04 2022.
The long-term pattern is a Channel Up and the Fibonacci retracement levels help at identifying Support/ Resistance levels. Our strategy is to sell below the 4H MA200 and target the 1D MA50 - Support Zone 1 Cluster on the short-term. Sell extension only if the price breaks below the Channel Up and target Support Zone 2.
As long as the 4H MA200 holds, a short-term rebound may be materialized towards the 4H MA50. However we are willing to buy only above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, targeting the 0.786 Fibonacci.
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EURUSD Today Analysis By Forex PharmacyEURUSD Analysis with complete chart patterns.
There is a Head and Shoulder Formation.
Also, A Three Drive pattern.
and Market structure may give us a Sell opportunity with 20 pip SL and 100 PIP TP.
Do support me if you like my working I can share many more analyses.
Regards,
M Raheel Khan
Forex Pharmacy
EURUSD Channel Up intact. Still bullish.There are no major changes on our medium-term outlook on the EURUSD pair, as it has been trading within the (blue) Channel Up since our previous analysis, offering good intra-day profit opportunities:
As you see, the price hit again the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and rose back to the top of the Channel Up in a similar fashion as January 19.
As long as the price closes above the 4H MA50, it will be a solid short-term buy opportunity, targeting the top of the Channel Up. Below the bottom of the blue Channel, we expect further selling towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since January 06.
As long as the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) holds, EURUSD remains a medium-term buy opportunity, eventually aiming at the 1.09400 Resistance, which is a triple top (April 07, 11 and 21 2022 Highs). A break below the 1D MA50, can restore the bearish trend, and we will target the 1D MA200 (red trend-line).
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EURUSD Aiming at its 4H MA50. Still bullish.We are expanding our EURUSD outlook with some additional elements, after last week's trade was perfectly executed:
As you see, the price first pulled-back, hit the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and rose back to the top of the green Channel Up again, fulfilling our target.
This time, we are adding a short-term Channel Up (blue) that is again aiming for the 4H MA50. That will be another solid short-term buy opportunity, targeting the top of the Channel Up. Below the bottom of the blue Channel, we expect further selling towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since January 06.
As long as the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) holds, EURUSD remains a medium-term buy opportunity, eventually aiming at Resistance 3 = 1.09400 which is a triple top (April 07, 11 and 21 2022 Highs). A break below the 1D MA50, restore the bearish trend, and we will target the 1D MA200 (red trend-line).
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EURUSD - THE BIG SHORT Eurusd - H4 - This pair went on a liquidity and stop hunt since the start of this year breaking monthly key levels. Now price has reversed on H4 and same time dollar index still holding its monthly demand zone so I'm expecting a complete reversal on Eurusd price action to heavy bearish from here on.. long term targets 0.90- 0.8500
EURUSD Pull-back more likely than everTime to call a short-term top on the EURUSD pair, as following our last week's idea, the price hit the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that has been trading is since the November 15 High:
This is actually a Double Top on the Higher Highs of the Channel Up, similar to that of mid-December. The target of the rejection was the bottom of the Channel, below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Right now we have the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) to consider as the short-term Support, where the price is very likely to go along with the 4H RSI Buy Zone 1.
If that breaks, we will extend selling all the way to the bottom of the Channel Up and only buy when the RSI hits 30.000 or the price hits the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line). In both cases, the medium-term Buy Target is the 1.09400 Resistance 3 (formed by the April 07, 11 and 21 Highs).
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EURUSD Reached short-term Target. Plan ahead.The 4H oversold buy signal worked well on last week's analysis and EURUSD is now about to test the 1.07150 (short-term) Resistance and target no1:
Now we shift our attention on the more medium-term again as it is best to trade again on pull-backs and break-out levels. A closing above 1.07150 targets the 1.07925 Resistance (2) where another 1D closing would target 1.09400 (April 07, 11 and 21 Highs).
Until then, it is best to enter a buy again at the bottom of this Channel Up (green), where the price can potentially make the first contact with the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) since November 04.
On the other hand, this bullish trend shifts only if the price breaks below the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), targeting the Sptember 28 Higher Lows. Notice also the Lower Highs trend-line on the 1D RSI, which offers sold sell entries.
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EURUSD Correction not over. 1D MA50 on sight at least.The EURUSD pair closed yesterday below its 4H MA50 (red trend-line) and is practically confirming the bearish short-term trend. Only a week after the 1D Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above MA200), the price is now eyeing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for a test that would be the first since November 04 2022.
A similar structure following a 1D Golden Cross was last seen on June 2020, when the pair was recovering from the COVID crash. On that sequence, the 1D RSI was again on Higher Lows and the price was pulling-back after hitting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. However it didn't break the 4H MA50, but did complete the pull-back on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
On the current pattern, the 1.382 Fib as on 1.03050, exactly where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) currently is. A correction of this magnitude would put EURUSD even below the 1D MA50. That is why the best buy confirmation would be after a Higher Low on the 1D time-frame, but on average, buying on the 1D MA50 seems solid from a risk management perspective.
In any case, the pair remains bullish long-term, targeting the 3.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.1200.
We got the exact bottom and all upper break-outs on our September 26 2022 analysis. Always keep a long-term perspective and profit from the big trend and reversals as we on Tradingshot do:
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EURUSD is set to rise!EURUSD has formed a strong bullish price action on the lower timeframe after grabbing liquidity from the weekly doji/liquidity zone. From multiple timeframe perspective, All four timeframes, monthly, weekly, daily and 4h is aligning with bullish price action. Upon closing of this candle, a buy trade is high probable.
EURUSD Hit 4H MA200, 1st time in 2 months. Two buy entries.The EURUSD pair is having a strong bearish session today, dropping as low as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) at the moment, for the first time in 2 months (since November 04). This hit the exact bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up (green) that started after the November 15th High.
In combination with the 4H RSI breaking its oversold barrier (30.000) for the first time since November 03, the current level represents a strong buy opportunity on a 1-month/ medium-term basis and we are targeting first the 1.07150 December 30 High and the 1.07925 May 30 High in extension.
With EURUSD already deep into a 1D Golden Cross, we see the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) as the long-term Support and 2nd buy entry, in case the price closes a daily candle below the 4H MA200. This pattern is invalidated only by a 1W candle close below the 1D MA50, in which case the September 28 Higher Lows trend-line will be targeted.
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EURUSD Ranged short-term, bullish long-termThe EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up for 1.5 month (since the November 15 High). That was a pattern we spotted early on and helped at buying low and selling high.
In the past two weeks however, the price has been trading sideways within a 1.0670 - 1.05720 range, using the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Pivot. As long as it holds this range, continue to scalp it and maximize the short-term profits.
A break below, targets the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), exactly on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up, which will be a buy opportunity. That, along with a break above the range, would target the 1.07925 Resistance (May 30 High), which has been for months, our long-term target.
A closing below the 4H MA200 though (daily), will be a sell opportunity, targeting the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line), which is the long-term Support for EURUSD.
Notice that we are a day or two before the 1D MA50 crosses above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) to form a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame, which we covered in previous ideas. It will be the first 1D Golden Cross since June 26 2020.
Finally notice how the 1D MACD is currently bearish (marginally), favoring a short-term pull-back.
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new week The ECB hiked interest rates on Thursday, following the lead of the U.S. Federal Reserve, and pointed to more tightening to come as increased fears of a potential global recession linger. In this video, we looked at the chart from a technical standpoint and we noticed that resumed selling pressure below the $1.07000 level since the beginning of this month could trigger a sell-off below the $1.06000 level in the coming week(s). However, we will not ignore the possibilities of a bullish momentum if buy pressure accumulates above the $1.06000 level to respect the bullish trendline.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Emerging 1D Golden Cross but price can pull-back firstThe EURUSD pair is close to forming a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame which is the pattern where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That is technically bullish but it doesn't mean that the price can't pull-back especially following the very aggressive rally it has been on since late September.
In fact, the last two 1D Golden Crosses had the price pull-back on overbought 1D RSI. Though the 1D MA50 wasn't hit before the rally was well underway above the 1.5 Fibonacci, the price did test either the 1D MA200 or the 4H MA50 (thin grey trend-line) prior to the Golden Cross.
Again, this doesn't change the long-term trend which has turned bullish, but the pull-back will represent a much needed technical retrace (also based on profit taking) to its fair buy level.
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EURUSD Above its 1WMA50 after 18months! Confirmed longterm rallyThe EURUSD pair broke last week above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and this week above the Lower Highs trend-line from the May 24 2021 market High. Last time the price was above the 1W MA50 was 18 months ago (on the week of June 21 2021!) and that alone constitutes a very strong buy signal for the long-term.
The previous two times that we saw the combination of 1W MA50 and Lower Highs of a downtrend break-out was on May 25 2020 and May 08 2017. In both historic cases, this break-out combination confirmed the end of the previous downtrend and the start of a new (roughly 2 year) Bull Phase. In both sequences, the rise reached as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, counting from the last Lower High prior to the Lower High break-out. That new 2.0 Fib is now a little over 1.2000 and technically that should be the target of a Bull Phase that can last for at least another year.
Technically we shouldn't see a major technical pull-back before the price breaks above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). In the previous two phases this is displayed by the red ellipse and dropped the price at least -3%. The end of the Bull Phase and price peak was made after the 1W RSI made a Lower Highs Double Top.
Long-term investors can take this 1W MA50/ Lower Highs break-out opportunity to buy the dips in 2023 and profit off of this pattern.
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