EURUSD Last decline starting. Be ready to buy on this signalThe EURUSD pair is close to hitting our sell target as presented to you on our last week's analysis (see below):
The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) remains the Resistance since May 08 and following the 4H Death Cross, we are on the 2nd part of the correction within the 6-month Channel Up. The Lower Lows as defined by the previous correction phase of February show that the bottom may be a little lower than our 1.07000 sell target, on the Inner Higher Lows trend-line which has already three exact contacts.
In either case, we will only buy when the 1D RSI breaks above its MA trend-line, which was the buy signal on February 28. Our long-term bullish target is 1.11350.
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Eurusdsignals
EURUSD within the 1D MA50-100. Trade the break-out.The EURUSD pair is still trading inside the long-term Channel Up pattern we identified more than 2 months ago and bought the bottom (see chart below):
With the recent price action however, we shift our attention to a shorter term Channel Up due to the possibility of extending the recent selling. The pair is basically trapped within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for 5 straight 1D candles. We will trade the break-out, depending which direction the 1D candle will close at.
A 1D candle closing above the 1D MA50, will be bullish targeting the top of the Channel Up at 1.11350. A 1D candle closing below the 1D MA100 will be bearish, targeting 1.0700 at least.
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EURUSD On the 1D MA50 after 7 weeks. Support near.The EURUSD pair continues to trade inside the long-term Channel Up pattern we used to call for our big bottom buy more than 2 months ago:
Today the price is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 24, having broken below the 0.236 Fibonacci level for the first time since March 17. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) was the level that supported the previous correction within this long-term Channel Up on March 08 and March 15. We treat this as a strong long-term buy opportunity, targeting Resistance 1 (March 31 2022 High) at 1.11850.
Note that the 1D RSI shows strong symmetry with the January 05 pull-back.
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EURUSD Top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
EURUSD Top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
EURUSD Ultimate buy on the 1D MA50 but bullish nonethelessIt has been 2 months since we called for a long-term buy on EURUSD at the bottom of the Channel Up on our March 07 analysis, targeting 1.06800 and 1.10300 in extension:
Both targets have been hit and as the 1D RSI is posting a price action similar to November - December 2022, this pattern becomes again more relevant than ever. This RSI fractal initiated a pull-back on January 02 near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which was the first test of that trend-line as a Support (successful) since it was a long-term Resistance for one and a half year.
The price has been trading within a smaller Channel Up inside the 0.382 - 0.618 Fibonacci levels and only if we close a 1D candle below it, we will expect a 1D MA50 test. The long-term Support is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which supported EURUSD on the last Lows of March 08 and March 15. SO until the 0.382 Fib breaks, we will continue to target 1.11850 which is the Resistance 1 formed by the March 31 2022 High.
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EURUSD Pull-back, Rise, Repeat.The EURUSD pair has hit yet another target following our bottom buy within the Channel Up 9 days ago:
By doing so it almost hit the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, which was the next target level on this sequence of Higher Highs. The next one is the 2.0 Fib at 1.11500 but not before a pull-back inside the usual Buy Zone of the 4H MA50 (blue) and 4H MA100 (green) trend-lines. Ideally the 4H RSI should drop near the bottom of its Rectangle to give a Buy Signal.
On the other hand, if the price closes below the 4H MA100, hence below the Channel Up, we will sell, targeting the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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EURUSD Buy at the bottom of the Channel Up.The EURUSD pair executed our long term plan as presented on our early March idea perfectly:
Right now, it is rising above the 4H MA50 again (blue trend-line) after nearly touching the bottom of the Channel Up pattern that started on the March 23 High. Since the first Low, the Higher Highs that followed touched the 1.236 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions. The next one can be on the 1.786 Fib. Our target is 1.1100 and that would be a +1.74% rise, similar to the April 04 High.
Notice also that every High and Low on the Channel has been a High/ Low on the RSI's Rectangle. When it turns oversold again, it will be an early indication to take profit.
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EurUsd- Where to sell for strong R:R? (SWING TRADE)After the dive to the 1.05 zone, EurUsd recovered and at the time of writing is trading back above 1.09.
To be honest, I don't see a fundamental reason for a reversal on this pair to the more familiar ground (1.15 or so) and the most probable scenario, in my opinion, is range trading for the months to come.
That being said, 1.1 should provide resistance, and rallies above this zone should be considered good opportunities for bears.
Considering a medium-term sell trade slightly above 1.1 with a 150 pips stop loss and a target in the recent low zone could make a lot of sense considering the 1:4 R:R
EURUSD More selling pressure until it bottomsEURUSD rebounded on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since our March 24 analysis, but hasn't reached the 1.10300 Target yet:
What emerged since then is a Channel Up and the current break below the 4H MA50 is significant enough to push it as low as Support 1 (1.07870) and the bottom of the Channel Up. The RSI hit its Lower Lows trend-line though and based on the previous hits, it always pushes the price higher. If you hadn't already bought the low on our March 24 buy call, you may now make a split buy entry (half size lot) now and on the bottom of the Channel Up. Our target is unchanged at 1.10300.
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EURUSD Bullish but hit the top of the Channel UpThe EURUSD pair has recovered after the drop below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is almost at the top of its short-term Channel Up. With the 4H RSI reaching its Lower Highs trend-line, we expect pull-back to the bottom of the Channel Up and the 4H MA50 before a rebound that will test Resistance 2 and our 1.10300 long-term target.
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EURUSD rebounding on the 1D MA50. Key to this trend.The EURUSD pair is on the second 1D green candle after hitting and closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is an extension of our last week analysis on the 4H time-frame:
Moving up to the 1D time-frame we can see the long-term dynamics more clearly. As long as the price is closing above the 1D MA50, the pair is targeting Resistance 2 at 1.10300. A closing below the 1D MA50, could cause a short-term pull-back towards the 1.05765 Symmetrical Support. If the price manages to close above it, it will be an even better buy opportunity for the long-term, targeting at least 1.12000.
A similar 1D RSI Higher Lows fractal from September 27 to November 03, targeted almost the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. And that is currently at 1.13500.
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EURUSD a last move down pendingEURUSD is making a rising wedge on daily chart, we already broke down the wedge, but currently market will retest it again, could go up until 1.12/1.13
After that one last move down, Make sure you don't miss it
I suggest shorting near 1.10/1.11
Sl 1.14
TP bellow 0.95
Good Luck
eurusd full analysis -- great setupafter the price made liquidity sweep
the price now rejected the supply area
now we expect more continuation to the downside
the only confirmation for selling is to break the support level
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don't forget your risk management
follow for more :))
EURUSD Supported on the 4H MA50. Buy signal.The EURUSD pair is executing our long-term well as explained on this idea earlier this month:
After correcting the very aggressive rise on the day of the Fed Rate Decision, the price now found Support on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). With the price past a 4H Golden Cross and the 4H RSI supported on Higher Lows, this is a low risk buy entry. Our target is 1.10300 (Resistance 4).
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EURUSD Pull-back expected before the Fed Rate Decision.The EURUSD pair is about to form a Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame but ahead of Wednesday's Fed Rate Decision, there is plenty of room for a fear related pull-back to the 1.05765 Symmetrical Support (that has held 4 times already in one month).
With Lower Lows on a Triple Bottom Zone, we'd expect downside to be limited at that point so we will open a buy and target 1.08020 (near Resistance 2). The upside is also limited by a Higher Highs trend-line.
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EURUSD Clear multi-month buy based on the annual Cycles.The decline on the EURUSD pair since the February High is having many lose sight of the long-term trend. As we called back in September, the pair was at or near a Cyclical Bottom. This chart on the 1M (monthly) time-frame helps at better understanding its long-term Cycles in the span of a decade.
The blue trend-line is the 1M RSI and the orange is the 1M MA200. As you see, the pair isn't even half-way through its new Bull Cycle. The top is expected at or near the 2018 Lower Highs trend-line, which is almost moving parallel with the 1M MA200. Based on this recurring pattern, a 1.2000 long-term price tag on EURUSD isn't at all unrealistic.
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EURUSD We caught the macro bottom again. New rally started.The EURUSD pair rebounded exactly on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as outlined on our analysis a week ago, having already hit our first short-term target of 1.06800:
A comparison with the last long-term rally of similar structure, from April 2020 to January 2021, shows that we just completed the 1D MA100 pull-back. If the price breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and holds it as a Support upon re-testing, it can extend the rally to at least the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. This is at 1.13750 and is our long-term target. Notice also not just the fact that in both fractals the 0.382 Fib supported, but also the striking symmetrical similarities between their RSI and MACD indicators.
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EURUSD hit the first (1.0680) Target. How to trade it next.The EURUSD pair reached the first target of our long-term trading plan within this multi-month Channel Up:
Going back to the 4H time-frame in order to formulate some short-term planning, we see the price now testing Resistance 1 (1.06990) that has already multiple rejections since February 20. The 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) is right ahead of it and makes this Zone a strong Resistance Cluster.
Even though the long-term trend is bullish, we have to account for the possibility of a short-term rejection back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.236 Channel Fib, especially with the 4H RSI entering the overbought zone, before targeting Resistance 2 (1.0840). The ultimate target on this sequence is 1.1000, right on the 0.618 Channel Fib and below Resistance 3 (1.10300).
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EURUSD looking for two support levelsThe EURUSD has suffered a strong blow to the recovery it staged last week following Powell's testimony on a potentially higher pace of interest rate hikes. This analysis is an update to our February 24 thesis, which successfully caught the first rebound:
We now added the Fibonacci Channel levels and see that the price is already below the 0.236 Channel Fib. Within this Channel Up, every time a 1D candle closed below the 0.236 Fib (October 31, October 19, October 07), the price reached (or dipped very close to) the bottom of the Channel. This time the bottom of the Channel is around Support Zone 1 and horizontal Fibonacci retracement level 0.382. However, the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is in between and has been intact since November 10 2022. The 1D RSI hasn't yet hit the (30.00) oversold barrier, but the 1D MACD has already made a Bullish Cross, which is a rise indicator.
We are willing to take the risk and enter a buy now before hitting the 1D MA100 and Target (1) again the 0.236 horizontal Fib T 1.06800. If a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we will resume buying, targeting 1.10300.
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EURUSD Critical 4H MA50 closingThe EURUSD pair seems to be inside a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern similar to that of mid-February. The big difference is that in February the Right shoulder rejection took place on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), while now the candle broke above it. It has already closed on 4H candle above the MA50 and the 2nd one is of high essence.
One more closing above the 4H MA50 will turn the pair bullish again, targeting the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) potentially on a Fib 0.382 contact (1.07150).
A closing below the 4H MA50 should extend the correction as it did in February on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (1.05400 Target).
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