EURUSD on a tight range waiting for the CPI/ Fed break-out!The EURUSD pair has been within a narrow Triangle range since November 30 after breaking above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which held it as Support while establishing 1.0600 as its Resistance.
It appears that it is waiting for Tuesday's U.S. CPI and Wednesday's Fed Rate Decision before making a move. That should be the break-out that we should trade and from a first look, below the 4H MA50, expect a fall to the bottom of the Channel Up, while above the 1.06135 (June 27 High) Resistance, a bullish break-out to the 1.07925 (May 30 High) Resistance and the top of the Channel Up.
If selling gets escalated, then we are willing to sell only after a candle close below the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and target the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line), which constitutes the most optimal long-term buy entry.
Notice also how the 4H RSI is also about to break out of its Triangle pattern that has been trading in since November 03.
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Eurusdsignals
EURUSD Channel Up aims at the higher Resistances.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November 15 High. The price bounced today on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which is encouraging for the upside but the bottom of the Channel is around 1.03650.
A bounce there aims at the 1.06135 Resistance (1) and further break can make a Higher High near the 1.07925 Resistance (2). A break below the Channel, has high probabilities of testing the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) with the Support being lower on the September 28 Higher Lows trend-line.
On the 4H time-frame the strongest buy signal is when the RSI enters 38.00 - 30.00.
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsThe prospect of the Federal Reserve moderating the pace of its policy tightening appear to weigh in on the U.S. currency as price action broke out of the $1.0000 mark a couple of weeks ago. However, sellers appear to be stalling all buying attempts as the $1.04500 level became a strong resistance area for sellers in the last two weeks hereby limiting all bullish attempts around this zone. In this video, I have explained what to look out for in the new week for both buying and selling opportunities.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, and risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Extremely bullish targeting 1.0600 and 1.0700.The EURUSD pair is having a strong rebound on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). The very same rebound we last saw on November 10 and October 21 during this 2-month uptrend. Common characteristic was that the 4H RSI was where the green arrows show. This is an almost perfect symmetry on this rising pattern.
Those two previous rallies rose by at least +4.00%. The natural technical targets of this rise are the 1.06135 Resistance (1) and the 1.07925 Resistance (2). If however a +4.00% rise is repeated, expect EURUSD to hit both 1.0600 and 1.07000 on the short-term.
A break below the 4H MA50 can reverse this short-term to the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) which form the long-term Support Zone.
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsIt was was a choppy situation for the EURUSD as price action was caught within a channel between the 1.04450 and 1.03150 level through out the course of last week's trading session. The bullish momentum that started two weeks ago was strongly resisted by sellers around the 1.03750 - a level that shares a confluence with the bearish trendline on the daily time frame. All bullish attempt at this juncture in the market appear to be negated by the bears as I am of the opinion that we might be witnessing a breakdown of the 1.03150 level to signal a retracement phase in the coming week(s).
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Some more pressure is coming but limited on the long-termThe EURUSD pair broke today below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since November 06. This has come after failure to close above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) on successive attempts and most likely we will see a pull-back extension towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
This bearish leg from its beginning looks like those of October 26 - November 03 and October 05 - October 13. On the longer-term those pull-backs were Higher Lows on the uptrend since the September 28 Market Bottom. Common feature is that both happened when the 4H RSI was around the 30.000 oversold mark and after the 4H MACD made a Bullish Cross. As a result, a MACD Bullish Cross would be the confirmation to buy. Our medium-term target is again the 1D MA200.
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EURUSD - CURRENT SENTIMENT ANALYSE , DXY #EURUSD
- As of last day, the MARKET SENTIMENT for EUR was slightly UP SIDE. The main reason for that is that the dollar is starting to weaken quite a bit. As of today, due to MARKET RISK being ON, all MARKETS including STOCKS and COMMODITIES are going up a bit. But with RETAIL SALES this situation has changed. Therefore, if the FED is HAWKISH, the USD can definitely go UP.
- Definitely, according to the market structure, EURUSD can go down to the support level of 1.0094 below. At the moment, there is quite a DOWN SIDE BIAS in the MARKET for EUR. After that, EURUSD can go up to 1.0772 LEVEL. If the MARKET SENTIMENT changes and STOCKS and COMMODITIES start going UP, there will be more EURUSD BUY. So keep an eye on it.
EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsThis is a follow-up detail to my previous analysis where we close the week on a profitable note (see the link below for reference purposes). The US CPI weighs on the US Dollar as the EURUSD surged with about a 4% gain to close the week on a bullish tone; However, in addition to the high-priority event coming up in the new week (stated in the video), it is worth noting that price is at a critical zone (around the $1.03750 area) as it edge towards the major bearish trend line that has been guiding bearish momentum in the last 18 months. Are we going to be seeing a breakout of this trendline or is there going to be selling pressure below this trendline to incite another crash? Stay tuned in as we navigate this together in the new week.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Near the 1W MA50. Huge rally if broken.The EURUSD pair is approaching the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been unbroken since the week of June 14 2021. This is a simple analysis on the 1W time-frame, showing the price action of the pair since 2006. As you see the pair's major long-term rallies have started after it broke above the 1W MA50, especially when the 1W RSI made such a strong jump, following multi-year downtrends.
As you see, the 1W RSI has gone from 26.00 to 55.00 in less than two months, representing the strongest rise on such short time-frame since March 2015. Though a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50 doesn't necessarily guarantee a huge rally, as with the (very rare) examples of February 2016 and the once in 100 years event of COVID March 2020, it does indicate that the market has bottomed.
A standard first target in 1W MA50 rallies is the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and above that, any uptrend has been limited by the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) that started on the November 23 2009 candle.
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EURUSD Rejection on the August ResistanceThe EURUSD pair confirmed our view last week that it was going to target the upper Resistance on strong 1D technicals:
The price broke both above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the September Channel Up and hit exactly the 1.03670 Resistance (2) level that was formed on the August 10 High. With the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) only a few points above the Resistance, and last week's CPI euphoria fading, the market may see a pull-back due to natural profit-taking and retrace towards the 1D MA50 and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), to test them as Support levels.
If those hold, expect a 1D MA200 test for the first time since June 17 2021! If the price closes above the Resistance (2) first instead, we will treat it as a bullish break-out signal and immediately target Resistance (3) at 1.06135.
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EUR/USD Need To Seems Sell Correction...
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair,
let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions,
the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be
satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watch list and see if
the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsFollowing the bullish engulfing candle on Friday, the Euro has a tendency to reach new highs in the coming week only if a significant breakout of the $1.000 level happens. However, we can not ignore the possibility of a possible bearish momentum considering the fact that the price has been trading below the $1.0000 level in the last couple of months.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Going for the 2nd 1D MA100 on strong technicals!Ahead of Thursday's U.S. CPI report, a critical inflation reading to the Fed's Rate Interest policy, the EURUSD pair is rebounding strongly on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up that it has been trading on since September 28 and that we called on Friday:
The price is now going for the 2nd 1D MA100 (green trend-line) test on such short notice (which is unbroken since February 11) but this time the technicals are stronger than ever: the RSI on the 1W time-frame is at its highest level since February 21, while the 1D MACD has formed a Bullish Cross above 0.00 for the first time since May 2021! If the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) supports, we can see a break above the Channel Up on such bullish readings, assuming the CPI helps.
Our short-term targets if EURUSD closes a candle above the 1D MA100 would bt the 1.0200 Resistance (1) and the 1.03670 Resistance (2) where contact may be achieved with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the other hand, if the price breaks below the Channel Up first, we will target at least Support 1 (0.97055).
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekThe last 3 - 4 weeks have seen prices continue to climb hereby finding uniform higher highs and higher lows which culminated at the breakout of the $1.0000 area during the course of last week's trading session. Will the breakout of the key level at the $1.0000 mark be a true or false one? As we look forward to a variety of high-impact events for the week, we will likely see structures anticipating this event at the beginning of the week, hence the need to prepare ourselves for significant signals. In this video, I have explained in detail what my expectations are and if there happens to be a contrary perspective at the beginning of the week, there will be an update in this regard in the comment section on my tradingview platform.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Confirmed Buy Signal. Bottom of Channel Up.The EURUSD pair made yesterday a perfect Higher Low on the bottom of the Channel Up pattern that started on the September 28 2022 Low. The 4H RSI made an instant bounce after breaking below the 30.000 oversold territory but the biggest Buy Confirmation comes from the 4H MACD. As you see it is currently forming a Bullish Cross, which since the September 28 bottom, has been the ultimate buy entry signal.
Having broken above its 2022 Channel Down (dashed lines), we may be in the process of seeing a gradual shift on EURUSD towards a bullish trend long-term. Still premature as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) rejected the uptrend on the last October 26 Higher High, and also we need to see the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) breaking.
But on the short-term, once the price closes above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) we will target the 4H MA50 and then the 1D MA200, which as mentioned is the current Resistance. A break above it as well, would be a new short-term buy targeting the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. A 1D closing above it, would target the 1D MA200.
On the other hand, this bullish approach will be invalidated if the price breaks below the 0.97005 Support (1). In that case, Support (2) at 0.96300 and Support (3) at 0.95350 will be targeted.
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EURUSD Short-term Channel Up after the 1D MA100 rejection.The EURUSD pair got emphatically rejected on its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) last Wednesday and as we discussed in our previous analysis, that was an instant short-term sell. Now the price is testing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which along with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) form the short-term Support Zone.
The rejection, confirmed the emergence of two Channel Up patterns, (A) and (B), which broke above the Channel Down that was dictating the trend since the February 10 High. The shift in the long-term trend is evident on the 1D RSI which is supported on Higher Lows since the September 28 bottom. Even though Channel Up (A) has a clear Buy Zone (green), perhaps the best Buy confirmation is given by the 4H MACD, which since the bottom has given 3 accurate signals when it formed a Bullish Cross.
If it rebounds successfully, the short-term target will be the 1D MA100 and only if it breaks, then the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. Ultimate long-term target is the 1D MA200 (red trend-line). A break below the Channel Up, can target Support 1 and Support 2 in succession.
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EURUSD | Still in Uptrend. Good buy Opportunity! When it comes to the technical analysis of EURUSD , current market structure clearly shows the signs of uptrend. On the chart I have marked previous resistances and used them to draw a trend line. Now that line is acting as a support. We have already seen strong rejections from that area and the price likely to break R1 trend line. If it does, we are going to see a good impulse to the upside and it reaches my first target T1. There is a good chance we might see a strong rejection from T1 area. If it does better you close the long position and book the profit. Just in case the price manages to break T1, you may keep the long position till T1.
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Disclaimer!
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.