EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsThis is a follow-up detail to my previous analysis where we close the week on a profitable note (see the link below for reference purposes). The US CPI weighs on the US Dollar as the EURUSD surged with about a 4% gain to close the week on a bullish tone; However, in addition to the high-priority event coming up in the new week (stated in the video), it is worth noting that price is at a critical zone (around the $1.03750 area) as it edge towards the major bearish trend line that has been guiding bearish momentum in the last 18 months. Are we going to be seeing a breakout of this trendline or is there going to be selling pressure below this trendline to incite another crash? Stay tuned in as we navigate this together in the new week.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Eurusdsignals
EURUSD Near the 1W MA50. Huge rally if broken.The EURUSD pair is approaching the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been unbroken since the week of June 14 2021. This is a simple analysis on the 1W time-frame, showing the price action of the pair since 2006. As you see the pair's major long-term rallies have started after it broke above the 1W MA50, especially when the 1W RSI made such a strong jump, following multi-year downtrends.
As you see, the 1W RSI has gone from 26.00 to 55.00 in less than two months, representing the strongest rise on such short time-frame since March 2015. Though a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50 doesn't necessarily guarantee a huge rally, as with the (very rare) examples of February 2016 and the once in 100 years event of COVID March 2020, it does indicate that the market has bottomed.
A standard first target in 1W MA50 rallies is the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and above that, any uptrend has been limited by the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) that started on the November 23 2009 candle.
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EURUSD Rejection on the August ResistanceThe EURUSD pair confirmed our view last week that it was going to target the upper Resistance on strong 1D technicals:
The price broke both above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the September Channel Up and hit exactly the 1.03670 Resistance (2) level that was formed on the August 10 High. With the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) only a few points above the Resistance, and last week's CPI euphoria fading, the market may see a pull-back due to natural profit-taking and retrace towards the 1D MA50 and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), to test them as Support levels.
If those hold, expect a 1D MA200 test for the first time since June 17 2021! If the price closes above the Resistance (2) first instead, we will treat it as a bullish break-out signal and immediately target Resistance (3) at 1.06135.
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EUR/USD Need To Seems Sell Correction...
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair,
let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions,
the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be
satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watch list and see if
the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsFollowing the bullish engulfing candle on Friday, the Euro has a tendency to reach new highs in the coming week only if a significant breakout of the $1.000 level happens. However, we can not ignore the possibility of a possible bearish momentum considering the fact that the price has been trading below the $1.0000 level in the last couple of months.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Going for the 2nd 1D MA100 on strong technicals!Ahead of Thursday's U.S. CPI report, a critical inflation reading to the Fed's Rate Interest policy, the EURUSD pair is rebounding strongly on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up that it has been trading on since September 28 and that we called on Friday:
The price is now going for the 2nd 1D MA100 (green trend-line) test on such short notice (which is unbroken since February 11) but this time the technicals are stronger than ever: the RSI on the 1W time-frame is at its highest level since February 21, while the 1D MACD has formed a Bullish Cross above 0.00 for the first time since May 2021! If the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) supports, we can see a break above the Channel Up on such bullish readings, assuming the CPI helps.
Our short-term targets if EURUSD closes a candle above the 1D MA100 would bt the 1.0200 Resistance (1) and the 1.03670 Resistance (2) where contact may be achieved with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the other hand, if the price breaks below the Channel Up first, we will target at least Support 1 (0.97055).
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekThe last 3 - 4 weeks have seen prices continue to climb hereby finding uniform higher highs and higher lows which culminated at the breakout of the $1.0000 area during the course of last week's trading session. Will the breakout of the key level at the $1.0000 mark be a true or false one? As we look forward to a variety of high-impact events for the week, we will likely see structures anticipating this event at the beginning of the week, hence the need to prepare ourselves for significant signals. In this video, I have explained in detail what my expectations are and if there happens to be a contrary perspective at the beginning of the week, there will be an update in this regard in the comment section on my tradingview platform.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Confirmed Buy Signal. Bottom of Channel Up.The EURUSD pair made yesterday a perfect Higher Low on the bottom of the Channel Up pattern that started on the September 28 2022 Low. The 4H RSI made an instant bounce after breaking below the 30.000 oversold territory but the biggest Buy Confirmation comes from the 4H MACD. As you see it is currently forming a Bullish Cross, which since the September 28 bottom, has been the ultimate buy entry signal.
Having broken above its 2022 Channel Down (dashed lines), we may be in the process of seeing a gradual shift on EURUSD towards a bullish trend long-term. Still premature as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) rejected the uptrend on the last October 26 Higher High, and also we need to see the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) breaking.
But on the short-term, once the price closes above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) we will target the 4H MA50 and then the 1D MA200, which as mentioned is the current Resistance. A break above it as well, would be a new short-term buy targeting the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. A 1D closing above it, would target the 1D MA200.
On the other hand, this bullish approach will be invalidated if the price breaks below the 0.97005 Support (1). In that case, Support (2) at 0.96300 and Support (3) at 0.95350 will be targeted.
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EURUSD Short-term Channel Up after the 1D MA100 rejection.The EURUSD pair got emphatically rejected on its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) last Wednesday and as we discussed in our previous analysis, that was an instant short-term sell. Now the price is testing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which along with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) form the short-term Support Zone.
The rejection, confirmed the emergence of two Channel Up patterns, (A) and (B), which broke above the Channel Down that was dictating the trend since the February 10 High. The shift in the long-term trend is evident on the 1D RSI which is supported on Higher Lows since the September 28 bottom. Even though Channel Up (A) has a clear Buy Zone (green), perhaps the best Buy confirmation is given by the 4H MACD, which since the bottom has given 3 accurate signals when it formed a Bullish Cross.
If it rebounds successfully, the short-term target will be the 1D MA100 and only if it breaks, then the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. Ultimate long-term target is the 1D MA200 (red trend-line). A break below the Channel Up, can target Support 1 and Support 2 in succession.
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EURUSD | Still in Uptrend. Good buy Opportunity! When it comes to the technical analysis of EURUSD , current market structure clearly shows the signs of uptrend. On the chart I have marked previous resistances and used them to draw a trend line. Now that line is acting as a support. We have already seen strong rejections from that area and the price likely to break R1 trend line. If it does, we are going to see a good impulse to the upside and it reaches my first target T1. There is a good chance we might see a strong rejection from T1 area. If it does better you close the long position and book the profit. Just in case the price manages to break T1, you may keep the long position till T1.
What do you think is more likely to happen? Please share your thoughts in comment section. And also give a thumbs up if you find this idea helpful. Any feedback & suggestions would help in further improving the analysis.
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Good Luck!
Disclaimer!
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
EurUsd- Where to buyAs I said yesterday and correctly anticipated, EurUsd has broken above 0.99 resistance and accelerated its gains towards parity.
Now the pair is in a normal short-term correction and this can offer bulls a good opportunity to enter the market.
0.99 and slightly under is now support zone and dips in this zone should be bought.
This outlook is negated by a drop under 0.97 and as targets, are the same as written yesterday: 1.02 and 1.03
My yesterday's analysis:
EURUSD Hit the 1DMA50. Bullish breakout or bearish continuation?The EURUSD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattern since the February 04 High. Today it hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since September 13, which was a Lower High on this Channel Down. We also had a near rejection on October 05. We have predicted this Lower High move on our following idea, a month ago:
This is the first time we've had so many successive tests and that has caused the absolute bearish structure at the start of the Channel to change. As you see it followed a strong sell (red channel), consolidation (grey circle) and sharp Lower Low drop (red arrow) sequence. That sequence has broken since the September 12 1D MA50 test, but the trend remains bearish regardless. This however could be an early sign that the long-term bearish sentiment is losing strength.
However, a 1D RSI break into its multi-month Resistance Zone, should be taken as a bearish signal targeting the 0.95392 Low and (under circumstances that we will discuss), the -0.236 Fibonacci extension (as a Lower Low to the long-term Channel Down). However a break above 1.000, which is the last Lower High, would invalidate this pattern, and even more so a closing above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) would confirm the long-term trend shift as this trend-line has been untouched since February 11, basically throughout the whole Channel Down structure.
For us, the range within the 1D MA50 and 1D MA100 is a no-trade zone but a break above the 1D MA100 would be a buy signal, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Check below, how well this Channel Down pattern has played out for us since late August:
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EURUSD is invalidating the August pattern to the upsideThe EURUSD pair broke a pattern today that has been holding since early August by making a Higher High above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Since The August 10 High, the pair has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone formation. The last Lower High (October 04) was rejected on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and as per the previous Lower Low sequences, reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Low.
However this time the subsequent rebound wasn't contained below the 4H MA50 and in fact broke even above the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which never happened in the previous two Lower Low sequences. The divergence from the previous patterns is also evident on their 4H RSI sequences. As a result the immediate target is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). A break above it, would target the 1D MA50, which is untouched since September 13. A break above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone would in turn target the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). As we've mentioned numerous times, this is the deciding level for EURUSD between being long-term bearish and long-term bullish as it has been a Resistance since February 11 2022.
Note that if at any time, the 4H RSI is rejected on the 70.000 overbought mark, it would be a solid sell opportunity targeting the 4H MA50 again.
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EURUSD Immediate SellThis is basically a quick update on the EURUSD pair on our analysis 4 days ago, as the projected rejection on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) eventually took place:
As you see, the price hit the 4H MA50 and eventually got rejected following the U.S. CPI release yesterday. Fundamentals aside, this largely confirms the technical recurring pattern that the price has followed within this Bearish Megaphone pattern since the August 10 top, where every Lower Low leg after it hits the 0.786 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, it makes a short rebound to the 4H MA50, only to be rejected and eventually make a new Lower Low within the Megaphone. As you see on the chart, those previous legs have been from Aug 10 - Aug 23 and Sep 12 - Sep 28. Even the 4H RSI sequences are similar.
This gets invalidated if the price breaks above the 4H MA200 instead.
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EURUSD Sell signal timed perfectly. Can see a relief bounce now.The EURUSD got sold-off heavily after the price broke inside the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1D MA50 (red trend-line) Zone as we pointed out in our previous analysis:
As you see, the sell signal couldn't have been timed more perfectly and now the price sits comfortably well below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). As mentioned previously, the medium-term pattern is a Bearish Megaphone (since the August 10 High) and as you see, every prior bearish leg to a new Lower Low, had a 'relief' rebound towards the 4H MA50 shortly after breaking it. The first did so right before hitting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, the second right before the 0.786. Right now the price has marginally broken below the 0.618. We may be at an ideal spot for a quick short-term buy and reverse to selling on the 4H MA50 again. This is invalidated if the price closes above the 4H MA200.
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EurUsd- Do we have a bottom?Last week, EurUsd dropped and made a low just above 0.95. After this drop, the pair reversed and has risen back above 0.99 support.
At this moment a bottom can be in place and EurUsd can rise back above parity.
Dips around 0.9850-0.99 should be bought and the target can be 1.03 old support, now resistance