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Trading Through Turbulence: EUR/USD Strategies Amid U.S. Fiscal The current economic indicators, alongside commentary from key Federal Reserve officials, suggest a cautious approach towards the EUR/USD pair. With the U.S. showing no immediate intent to cut interest rates due to a robust labor market and unresolved inflation targets, traders should prepare for potential dollar strength and volatility in the currency markets. The anticipation of a "hard landing" for the U.S. economy further complicates the landscape, warranting a strategic approach to trading the EUR/USD pair. 1. U.S. Interest Rate Outlook: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic's recent statements highlight a significant resistance to cutting interest rates in the near term. The robustness of the U.S. labor market and the economy, coupled with inflation not convincingly on track to meet the 2% target, suggests that the dollar might remain strong. Bostic's remarks underscore the uncertainty surrounding inflation, indicating that the Fed is not yet convinced that inflationary pressures are sufficiently under control to warrant a change in monetary policy. This stance is crucial for EUR/USD traders, as interest rate expectations are a primary driver of currency movements. The Fed's cautious approach may bolster the dollar, creating resistance against EUR gains. 2. Market Reactions and Treasury Movements: The reaction to Bostic’s comments was immediate, with Treasuries falling and holding their decline, reflecting market adjustments to the expectations of continued strong U.S. monetary policy. Conversely, Jupiter Asset Management's move to increase its Treasury holdings to a record suggests a hedging strategy against a potential economic downturn. For EUR/USD traders, these dynamics indicate a flight to safety and potential volatility, with a strong dollar scenario possibly prevailing in the short term. 3. Equity Market Inflows and Implications for the Dollar: Significant inflows into global equity funds, especially following substantial sell-offs in U.S. stocks by Japanese and Chinese funds, hint at a complex investment landscape. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures' rise indicates investor optimism or speculative positioning, potentially impacting the dollar by influencing risk sentiment. For the EUR/USD, this could mean short-term bullish signals for the dollar, especially if equity market strength translates into confidence in the U.S. economy. 4. Inflation Concerns and Labor Market Strength: The anticipated high CPI and potential for a similarly high Producer Price Index (PPI) could extinguish hopes for an interest rate cut, further strengthening the dollar. The persistent strength of the U.S. labor market suggests that inflation may not be easily tamed, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts. For EUR/USD traders, this means monitoring U.S. economic indicators closely, as signs of sustained inflation or labor market overheating could prompt adjustments in trading strategies, favoring the dollar. The EUR/USD trading environment is marked by uncertainty, with a robust U.S. economy and unresolved inflation concerns suggesting a cautious approach. Traders should remain vigilant, adapting strategies to navigate potential volatility and the implications of U.S. monetary policy on currency movements.
Short
by Wiiso
2
EURUSD Sell Confirm The EUR/USD pair picked up some momentum ahead of the daily close but remains below the 1.0800 threshold. From a technical point of view, the daily chart shows that EUR/USD remains below its moving averages, with a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) about to cross below the 100 SMA, both converging in the 1.0790 price zone. At the same time, technical indicators stand pat within negative levels, suggesting buyers are out of the picture. EUR/USD flattens in holiday Monday markets, investors look ahead to late-week European PMIs Confirm signal Sell
Short
by JohnHarry66
EurUsd - Long Term ChannelHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of EurUsd. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: Starting in 2008 EurUsd has been trading in a descending channel for more than 15 years. At the moment EurUsd is retesting the upper resistance of the channel so a move lower is quite expected. Furthermore EurUsd is also retesting previous support which is after the break towards the downside turned resistance so everything is pointing towards a next move lower. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
by basictradingtv
8
EURUSD M15 / Short Trade Alert ✅Hello Traders! This is my idea related to EURUSD M15. As the Market structure, H4 is bearish, and the trend did not set a new High, I expect a continuation of a bearish market and at the moment, I see an opportunity to execute from this price a short trade with the target below the low. Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective. ____________________________________ Follow, like, and comment to see my content: www.tradingview.com
Short
by GoodTradeST
2
EUR/USD Imminent Shorts towards 1.06800My analysis on EUR/USD mirrors that of GBP/USD, as it has entered a significant supply zone where I anticipate a bearish reaction. Given the abundance of liquidity and the temporary bullishness of the dollar, this scenario appears plausible. Therefore, I'll be monitoring for a redistribution pattern on Monday before considering initiating sell positions. I acknowledge the presence of considerable imbalances above, which could prompt price to rise and potentially reach the supply zone in scenario (C). However, my overall expectation for EUR/USD is a downward movement towards 1.06800. Confluences for EU Shorts are as follows: - Price left a clean 3hr supply zone which price is currently re distributing inside. - Price has been moving bearish regarding the recent break of structure to the downside. - DXY is also been moving bullish so it backs the EU downtrend. - Lots of liquidity to the downside like trendline Asian lows and swing lows. - The overall trend of this market like the monthly still shows its a bearish trend. P.S. I'm currently leaning towards a pro-trend stance with this idea, primarily because of the recent downward breaks in structure. Additionally, there are few demand zones in proximity to the current price, suggesting that price may decline to sweep that liquidity. HAPPY TRADING AND REMEMBER ITS USD BANK HOLIDAY MONDAY!
Short
by Hassan_fx
3
EURUSD I Correction in process to 50% fib of the bearish impulseWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** EURUSD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
1
EURUSD READY TO DROP MOREHELLO FRIENDS! EURUSD is now trading in downtrend and rejecting from broken support zone we expected another drop on this pair. as we can see $ index is moving to the upward and this pair is trading under bearish Trend it can test these given support levels in coming days as we can see US Inflation data ahead a positive data for $ can bring to us these levels on EURUSD Its just a trade idea share Ur thoughts with us and stay tuned for more updates.
Short
by APEX_TRADING_ACADMEY
2