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EURUSD: Things you need to know!Fundamental analysis: The support and resistance zones are effectively fulfilling their role, as usual, by eliciting a response above the gold price line. The RSI indicator indicates that liquidity is slowly accumulating, which suggests a potential reversion to a downtrend. Market overview: The EUR/USD rose again, posting its highest daily close in a month above 1.0800, despite the US Dollar's recovery triggered by the hawkish hold from the FOMC. Attention now turns to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and upcoming US data, which could become more relevant given Fed Chair Powell's statement that the July meeting will be a 'live' meeting." The ECB will have its Governing Council meeting on Thursday. It is expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points. The key for the Euro will be the language used in the statement and ECB President Lagarde’s comments during the press conference. Probably, she will repeat that they are not done raising rates. If the meeting turns out to be 'dovish', with signals of a potential pause, the Euro could suffer.
Short
by Sphyn-Trader
3
Stick with the broader perspective on Eurozone - short euroFundamentals EUR: There are indeed hawkish expectations as ECB officials reiterated the need for further hikes in June-July to tame sticky inflation. However, most if not all leading indicators' latest readings point to a decrease in economic activity. I believe yesterday's spike is the result of pricing in those hawkish expectations, which is overdone. The idea is to follow the bigger picture of the economic conditions in the Eurozone. ECB may try to hike rates a few times to fight inflation, but the major downtrend in the euro should continue unless leading indicators show some improvements. Additionally, the positioning of retail traders is mostly long - an old habit of fighting a fundamental trend. At some point the retailers should take their losses, feeding the downtrend. USD: Yes, there's a pause in rate hikes expected in June, but Fed has been more successful in lowering inflation, while recent data showed some signs of improvement in economic conditions (consider Retail sales and NFP). Also, the medium-term Fed's outlook is still quite hawkish because inflation is still well above the regulator's target Technical & other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Range Min. Target: MA(10) *The market is likely to range until FOMC, so the target is quite limited.
Short
by Cherry94
4
EURUSD: Tumultuous week!Overview of the market On Tuesday, the EUR/USD experienced a slight increase of fewer than 30 pips. However, this was enough to make it the Euro's best day in over a week. The pair's rebound was due to a decline in the US dollar against European currencies and the yen, after hitting two-month lows at 1.0670. In Spain, data indicated a decline of 0.2% in the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in May, causing an annual rate fall from 3.8% to 2.9%, which was larger than expected. Although this news was positive for the European Central Bank (ECB), it could have negative implications for the common currency. Inflation data from Germany and France is due on Wednesday, which could ease tightening expectations from the ECB if preliminary May estimates also show significant declines in their annual rates.
Short
by Sphyn-Trader
1
EURUSD: Anticipating Non-farm!EUR/USD advances toward 1.0750 amid US debt deal optimism Fundamental technical analysis: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to be present in the middle. The average price is still declining, with the 34 EMA and 89 EMA staying steady, creating a consistent downtrend over a period of time. Additionally, the flag pattern has begun to take shape. Market overview: On Friday, EUR/USD started to rise after a four-day decline that resulted in the pair reaching its lowest level in over two months near 1.0700. The near-term technical outlook does not yet show a bullish inclination in the short term, and the next directional move may be influenced by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data from the US later in the day. The US Dollar (USD) was boosted on Thursday by positive macroeconomic data releases from the US, which revived expectations for one more Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase in June. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the first-quarter annualized Gross Domestic Product growth to 1.3% from 1.15 in the initial estimate, and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in below the market expectation of 245,000 at 229,000.
Short
by Sphyn-Trader
7
EURUSD 28May2023still in accordance with last week's analysis, prices will continue to fall in the SnD area. there is a possibility that the price will continue to fall closer to wave 2 as an invalid area. the invalid area here serves as a barrier to analysis, that the main trend analysis is bullish, while the current bearish trend is a correction of the bullish trend. when the price is in the SnD area you can wait for an opportunity to go long, but if the price continues to fall, then it's better to wait back near the invalid area to go long.
by Hokusai_FX