EURUSD: Market continues to move in a downtrendEUR/USD declined on Wednesday, quickly reaching below 1.0900 and then rebounding in the US session, cutting losses. The Euro is still supported by expectations of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB), reaffirmed by Lagarde's comments. At the same time, bets on interest rate hikes increased in July from the Federal Reserve (Fed), supporting the US Dollar.
Inflation data from the Eurozone has started to be released. Italy's harmonized consumer price index slowed down from 8% to 6.7% in June.
On Thursday, Spain and Germany will report inflation, and on Friday, the Eurozone's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be due. The headline EZ is expected to decrease from 6.1% to 5.6%. Another report released on Wednesday showed a decline in the GfK Consumer Confidence survey, with a drop from -24.4 to -25.4. This is the first decline since October.
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EURUSD: ECB President Lagarde Speaks!The EUR/USD pair is taking a break around 1.0960 after posting its biggest daily gain in a week during a two-day rally. This suggests that the Euro has been boosted by hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials the previous day, while paying little attention to optimistic US data. However, cautious sentiment ahead of key speeches from top central bank figures including ECB President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the ECB Forum in Sintra has further fueled the currency pair's price increase.
EURUSD: New Channel Up emerging. Buy and target the Resistances.EURUSD broke again over the 4H MA50 after closing over the 1D MA50 and keeping the 4H MA100 intact. The 1D time frame is on excellent bullish technicals (RSI = 60.189, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 30.775) while the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross.
We see the potential for the emergence of a Channel Up and every Higher High matches the upper Resistance levels. We are buying every pull back inside the Channel with the end target at the top of the multi month Channel Up (TP = 1.11500).
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EURUSD has started the 2nd part of the bullish leg.EURUSD is trading inside a 6 month Channel Up.
The recent rebound on the MA50 (1d) has confirmed the start of the 2nd part of the bullish leg that started at the bottom of the Channel Up on May 31st.
This is in similar fashion as the March 24th rebound.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.11400 (top of the Channel Up on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) rebounded on its MA line, again same as the March 24th rebound. A sideways RSI trade, will continue to further confirm the similarities of the two bullish sequences and validate our target.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
EURUSD Top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
EURUSD: ECB President Lagarde Speaks!The EUR/USD experienced a slight increase on a calm Monday in the financial markets. This week, important inflation data will be released, and central bankers will be making speeches. The US dollar weakened moderately on Monday due to a decrease in US yields and a rise in commodity prices.
On Monday, data was released showing a decline in the German Ifo, following pessimism triggered by PMI data on Friday. The headline index for June dropped from 91.5 to 88.5, which was below the market's expectation of 90.7. Additionally, the Expectation Index fell from 88.3 to 83.6, and the Current Assessment decreased from 94.8 to 93.7.
The European Central Bank's forum on central banking in Sintra has begun, with numerous central bank officials from around the world attending. ECB President Lagarde and other policymakers will be speaking multiple times, starting on Tuesday. If the ECB wants to communicate a message to the market this week, it has an opportunity to do so. It is most likely that they will stick to the current "data-dependent" approach and signal another rate hike in July.
Fed Chair Powell will also be speaking at the Sintra forum on Wednesday, but it is unlikely that there will be any surprises
EURUSD: Consolidation turning into a Buy.EURUSD is trading near the HL 1 trendline with the 4H timeframe about to turn neutral again (RSI = 57.365, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 18.019) after being overbought last week on June 15th-16th. Along with the 4H RSI testing the bottom of its Channel Up, this is our first buy entry on the medium term with the second being on a potential contact with the 4H MA50 at 1.08750. On both entries our target is the R1 (TP = 1.10075).
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EURUSD: Overbought on 4H, may experience a short term pullback.EURUSD turned overbought on the 4H time frame (RSI = 74.381, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 54.586) following the parabolic rise yesterday. As we mentioned on our analysis last month, the pair has been rising strongly basically since the May 31st bottom. As the 4H MA50 is about to cross over the 4H MA200 for the first time since March 21st and form a Golden Cross, we expect a pull back first near the 0.618 Fibonacci.
We will buy at 1.08450, assuming the 4H MA50 gets hit, and target R1 (TP = 1.10075).
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EURUSD: Triangle targeting 1.07800. Levels to trade outside of iEURUSD crossed today over the 4H MA100 for the first time since May 10th and with the 4H time frame heavily bullish technically (RSI = 61.681, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 28.340), we expect a test of the Ascending Triangle's Top, the R1 (TP = 1.07800).
Beyond that, we will only buy above R2 and traget R3 (TP = 1.08315) and on HL (the bottom of the Ascending Triangle). If the price breaks under it, it is possible to have a new Lower Low and will sell targeting the S1 (TP = 1.06350) and make a long term buy entry at 1.06000.
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EURUSD Aggressive bullish break outEURUSD is having a highly aggressive bullish break out as not only did it cross over the 3 week Channel Down pattern but also the 4H MA50 which has been unbroken since May 8th. The 4H technicals are healthy bullish (RSI = 58.132, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 39.347) and if the current 4H candle closes over the R1, we will extend our buying and target the R2 and 1D MA100 (TP = 1.08015).
Every pull back after that will be a buy opportunity, we will use the R1 as entry and lastly the 4H MA50 and target next the R3 (TP = 1.08315) where the price will also face Resistance by the 4H MA200.
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EURUSD Sell under the 4hour MA50, buy over it.EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Down on the 4hour time frame with the price near its top and the 4hour MA50.
As long as it closes the candle under the 4hour MA50, sell and target Support at 1.06710 on the short term and the bottom of the Channel Down on a -1.17% decline at 1.06200.
If it closes a candle over the 4hour MA50, buy and target the 4hour MA100 at 1.0800.
Previous chart:
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EURUSD: Is approaching the long term bottom. Buy signal.EURUSD has been on a non-stop decline for the majority of the month crossing under both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA100. The price is attempting to naturally reach the lower levels of the long term Channel Up and with the 1D time frame technically almost oversold (RSI = 33.358, MACD = -0.005, ADX = 58.352), the conditions of a new long term buy emerge.
We will use a double entry buy strategy 1) on the current levels (price under S1 and above the dashed HL) and 2) near the bottom of the Channel Up at -4.50% from the top. Long term target near the top of the Channel Up (TP = 1.11500).
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EURUSD The Potential price movement while we get close to X DATEThe market is currently going through a period of uncertainty. The market is very optimist about the Debt Ceiling agreement. This is definitely going to be a Catalyst this week and half of the following week. If the agreement is seal we could see a strong dollar.
This trading idea is based on what is the price doing in Daily time frame. Also taking into consideration the Catalyst.
In Daily time frame we have a price trending down. The price already stablished the last Lower High with a three-formation candle. The Price already gave us a nice move to the downside. The next point of entry could be at the price inefficiency of the third candle of the three-formation candle. Which is the zone that is presented in this trading idea.
The 1st take profit is based on important level of liquidity. The 2nd take profit is based on -.272 fib level and the 3rd take profit is based on important level of liquidity that is in confluence with the -.618 fib level.
It is important to know that the market will be very sensitive with any important update about the debt ceiling.
EURUSD: Clings to multi-day low!Hello traders, some information to help you trade better is here.
The EUR/USD experienced a consecutive drop, resulting in the lowest daily close in two months, due to the US Dollar's increasing strength. The Greenback was supported by higher Treasury yields and risk aversion. Any recovery seen during the European session was short-lived, and the pair returned to trading near 1.0750.
Economic data released on Wednesday revealed that the German IFO Business Climate Index dropped slightly to 91.7 in May from 93.4 in April (revised from 93.6), contrary to the market expectation of 93. However, this report did not have any impact on the Euro. On Thursday, a new estimate of Q1 GDP will be released by Germany, which is expected to remain at 0%.
According to the FOMC minutes, officials had differing opinions on the future of interest rates. Some members believed that more rate hikes were necessary, while others argued against further policy tightening. Overall, there was uncertainty about the appropriate amount of policy tightening. The US Dollar experienced a slight weakening after the minutes, but still maintained most of its daily gains.
Market sentiment deteriorated further amid a gloomy growth outlook and the debt-ceiling drama. Negotiations continue in Washington but no deal yet. On Thursday, economic reports due in the US include Jobless Claims.
EURUSD Top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
EURUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.