EUR/USD Shorts from 1.09000 back downMy bias aligns closely with GU this week, focusing on selling from a comparable supply level evident on both charts. On EU, this manifests as the 4hr level around 1.09000, where I intend to sell. I'll await the current price to pull back into these zones to address the imbalance and form a redistribution pattern.
Similarly to GU, there's a minor 4hr supply below that I anticipate will fail due to the presence of the Asian high above it. Once this fails and reaches the major supply, I'll be more inclined to sell from there as it offers a premium price.
Confluences for EU Sells are as follows:
- Price broke structure the downside and left a clean 4hr supply zone.
- Imbalances that needs to b filled before tapping into the supply.
- Lots of liquidity below in the form of asian lows.
- Price is overall bearish on the higher time frame.
- I can see the dollar to rising more to the upside.
P.S. I observe the current price reacting to the existing demand. If this reaction fails, price might respond bullishly to the demand just below, potentially initiating an upward move towards the supply levels above.
Have a great trading week guys!
Eurusdtrend
EURUSD BIG SELL (411 PIPS) READ THE DISCRIPTIONThe analysis for EUR/USD (Euro paired with US Dollar) suggests a major sell zone, indicating a strong bearish sentiment in the market. The currency pair has broken below the previous historical support level, signaling a significant shift in market dynamics. The main area of newly fresh resistance is identified between 1.08430 to 1.08700, indicating a level where selling pressure has emerged and may continue to hold back further price advances.
To further reinforce the bearish outlook, data from big players and investors is considered. In the last month, a total of 531,000 short positions were recorded, while in the last two weeks, an additional 254,000 short positions were added. Furthermore, in the past two days alone, 15,000 new short positions were initiated. This data suggests a notable increase in short positions, with the percentage of shorts rising from 12% to 20% in the last month. Such a substantial increase in short positions indicates a strong bearish trend, especially considering it broke all previous monthly support levels.
The trading strategy incorporates setting two target prices to capture potential profits. The first target price is set to secure gains if the market follows through with a downward movement. If the market reaches this target and continues to decline, traders aim to close the trade for profit. However, if the market rebounds after reaching the first target, the second target price should be used to exit the trade to mitigate potential losses.
The expected gain from this trade is 411 pips, representing a 3.4% profit potential. This indicates a significant downward movement in EUR/USD, and traders aim to capitalize on this potential while managing risk effectively.
In summary, the analysis points towards a strong bearish sentiment in EUR/USD, with a major sell zone identified. By considering big player and investor data, setting clear target prices, and managing risk, traders aim to seize the opportunity presented by the bearish trend in the currency pair.
EURUSD Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe EURUSD has rallied on the back of the Fed holding rates and the USD tanking. The move seems over extended and has traded into a key resistance level. On the 1D time frame we can see lower lows/highs and a bearish break of structure. In the video we discuss a possible short if price action sets up the right conditions.
EURUSD: The EUR continues to fall as the ECB can cut interest raThe euro is possibly to keep to conflict towards the greenback as weaker financial boom and quicker deflation withinside the European Union ought to pressure the European Central Bank to reduce hobby charges aggressively than the Federal Reserve.
EUR/USD fell 0.52% to $1.0862.
“We keep to count on EUR/USD to decline,” Morgan Stanley stated in a latest note, highlighting numerous elements in order to widen the differential among US and EU hobby charges, such as Deflation is quicker withinside the EU and financial boom is slower.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that the slowdown in European inflation will "arise quicker and at a decrease preliminary charge than US inflation", paving the manner for the ECB to "sign a quicker tempo of cuts than presently expected." now".
Expectations for an ECB hobby charge reduce as quickly as June had been boosted on Wednesday, following the Swiss National Bank`s marvel pass to decrease its benchmark hobby charge.
Swaps are actually pricing in a ninety% risk the ECB will reduce hobby charges in June, up from round 80% on Wednesday, with four, or ninety foundation points, cuts now priced in.
Meanwhile, the energy of US boom in comparison to the EU may also inspire the Fed now no longer to reduce hobby charges as little as in preceding cycles, Morgan Stanley stated. But different principal banks, such as the ECB, won't have that luxury, paving the manner for the USD "to hold a differential benefit over the EUR", MS added.
Meanwhile, slower boom out of doors the United States and ongoing geopolitical dangers also are possibly to help a more potent greenback, "particularly because the US election approaches", Morgan stated. Stanley stated.
Trading with the Risk-Off Sentiment 🐻📉 Hello Traders! Welcome back to another Top-Down Analysis of EurUsd. I've found that only trading 1 Pair/Instrument is a great way to reduce your risk exposure in the markets. There are a few reasons for this --- 1) I only have to pay attention to the news announcments for the -EUR & -USD 2) The currency pair has it's own nuances and characteristics that I may not understand If i were to trade many pairs.
3) It's session-session behavior is easier to follow since I'm only following 1 pair
With that said, Eur/Usd did decrease over the previous session as I anticipated and called out in the Analysis. This was for a few reasons.. Market sentiment has shifted to risk-off slightly due to increasing inflation and better than expected NFP jobs data (also boosts inflation). We also have interest rates in 2 days and there is uncertainty about that.. (even more of a reason to buy the safe haven dollar)
Next target for shorts is 1.08510.. In the meantime it is possible that we may pullback to 1.089 Daily resistance level that was created today for a last minute retest before more downside to come. I have a strong Bearsh bias leading up to interest rates here
0'0 intro and monthly timeframe
1:41 weekly timeframe
3:02 daily timeframe
517 4hr tiemfame
8:01 1hr timeframe
💡 EURUSD: Forecast March 19After a brief recovery to the neckline of the double top model, selling pressure became stronger again, creating new bearish signals. These new signals are strengthening the possibility of EURUSD falling, you continue to hold existing short positions, the short-term target is around the support threshold of 1.08.
FOMC this week, how should you trade EURUSD?After reaching the 1.0970 level, EUR/USD has pulled back strongly and
currently, price is hovering below the 1.09 level.
With the super-important FOMC event on Wednesday, major market players
are on the sidelines here. Technically, the dynamic support on the 4H chart
is holding so far.
We recommend traders to stay away from executing any new trades before
the FOMC event. The key resistance levels are at 1.10 and 1.1140. If price
spikes to any of these key levels during the event, we may consider selling EUR/USD
provident there is bearish price action.
EUR/USD Longs from 1.08600 back up to 1.09400EU is following a pattern similar to GU as anticipated, so the approach will be similar. I'll be seeking buying opportunities near the current price, given the presence of a 6-hour demand zone that prompted a Breakout to the Upside (BOS). If price approaches this zone, I anticipate a Wyckoff accumulation formation before entering buy positions.
However, there's an Asian low beneath the zone, so I need to exercise caution regarding the potential buy. If we witness a successful reaction, I anticipate a price rally to fill the imbalance above, eventually leading to the mitigation of the 17-hour supply zone for potential selling opportunities downward.
Confluences for EU Buys are as follows:
- Price is approaching a decent level demand on the 6hr.
- Imbalances and liquidity above that need to be mitigated.
- Price has already been moving recently bullish the past couple weeks.
- After asian low gets taken I can expect price to slow down and accumulate.
P.S. With the shift in price character to the downside, this could represent a temporary retracement. However, if price persists in breaking structure to the downside, there's a possibility of this demand failing and selling pressure becoming more dominant.
Weekly Price Review / EurUsd 2nd Week March 24'🏗️We Depreciated -46.4 Pips this week on EurUsd. This was due to profit taking from the increase in recent weeks, CPI data that wasn't favorable for the Federal Reserve's goals, and confluence with a Weekly Resistance Level 1.095. In this Analysis we begin by looking at how the Monthly and weekly timeframes pulled to the downside. We then go down to the 30 minute timeframe where we observe market structure and analyze how news releases impacted price behavior. We finish the analysis by breaking down price behavior on a session to session basis throughout the week.
0:0 Monthly timeframe and Introduction
1:19 Weekly Timeframe
2:10 daily timeframe
2:39 4hr timeframe
3:15 30m timeframe and Analysis
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EURUSD I Intraday long opportunity from support zone Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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EURUSD: The USD remained stable as the market waited for US dataThe USD remained strong because the marketplace waited for US records
In forex markets these days, americaA greenback confirmed little volatility as buyers awaited the discharge of extra financial records from america to gauge the capacity route of Federal Reserve coverage state.
After the discharge of a higher-than-anticipated US patron fee index (CPI) on Tuesday, there have been clean worries approximately chronic inflation, inflicting investors to rethink whether or not the Fed will begin slicing hobby fees. potential in June as formerly expected or not.
The opportunity of an hobby price reduce in June is now taken into consideration a 65% chance, down barely from the 71% possibility in advance this week, in keeping with LSEG`s hobby price possibility application. Expectations for an hobby price reduce in July continue to be excessive at round 83%. The Fed is anticipated to hold hobby fees at its assembly subsequent week, however the awareness may be at the critical bank's up to date financial forecasts.
Kyle Rodda, a senior monetary markets analyst at Capital.com, cited that at the same time as latest records has barely modified hobby price expectations, the consensus has been for 3 price cuts for the year. now. He delivered that a greater hawkish stance from the Fed ought to lessen this expectation to 2 price cuts and push the primary reduce to September, strengthening americaA greenback.
The greenback index, a degree of the greenback's electricity towards a basket of six currencies, changed into distinctly unchanged at 102.77. Investors are carefully looking US retail income records, the manufacturer fee index (PPI) and the unemployment claims document due out later these days for in addition symptoms and symptoms of weakness. financial recession.
In Europe, the euro changed into consistent towards the greenback at $1.0949, with marketplace members awaiting remarks from European Central Bank officials.
2 Setups & 8 Trades / Scalping Trades Review #2 🚌Hello Traders, another Scalping Review video analysis! 8 Trades today (4/8 or 50% Win rate on the day). I traded 2 different setups today. - Fakeout Against the Trend (2 Trades ) and - Fakeout with the Trend (6 trades) .. I earned more today trading the latter.. typically, trading with the trend is not a bad idea and my results showed that today :) . Although, going against the trend can provide great Risk/Reward opportunities and so we cannot discount that setup.
What are your thoughts on the Trading day review?
Please leave your feedback below if you enjoyed/disliked the 2nd part of this video series, Scalping Trades Review.
EurUsd Slightly Lower after Inflation Day 🎛️Hello Traders welcome back to another Top-Down Analysis of EurUsd. Today was CPI Inflation day and the market is about Break Even after the Day's trading. At One point EurUsd had depreciated in favor of the USD by about +.21% but we have since retraced .. possibly from profit taking and normal market movements.
0:0 Monthly Timeframe
1:51 Weekly timeframe
2:35 Daily timeframe
4:17 4Hr timeframe
5:55 1Hr timeframe
We observed an increase during Asian session back towards our weekly level 1.095 that was duly corrected as is expected from an Asian session move. London session corrected the Asian session move back to near the open of the Daily candle where we observed a bounce prior to CPI inflation data news release. CPI whipsawed down dramtically as the numbers were better than expected for the dollar at 3.2% (better than the 3.1% y/y). This opposes the Fed's goal of 2% y/y so it'll be interesting to see if we continue to reject 1.095 Weekly level in the ensuing days after CPI release. Our First target for Shorts would be a retest of the Lows created today at 1.09092 and possibly we touch 1.08722 in coming sessions. The fundamental reason would be market particiaptns flocking into the dollar as a safe haven asset since the Fed is moving in the wrong direction, and away from its 2% y/y goal.
💡 EURUSD: Forecast March 11EURUSD stalled on Friday, rebounding from the above resistance while creating a bearish pinbar pattern, showing resistance. However, with the previous breakout, EURUSD D1 is still slightly higher in price.
The EURUSD H1 chart structure shows that this pair is more bullish, with gradually higher highs and lows along with a bullish channel providing additional support. Because D1 is touching resistance, H1 can catch pullbacks to the resistance areas below to buy