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Eurweak

EURAUD - Is A Reversal On The Horizon?Analysis: Looking at the chart we're able to see that price recently seemed pretty bullish and due to the news that came out for the USD last week it's had an affect on the AUD and we've since seem some AUD weakness, however we see a potential reversal happening soon. At this of area resistance we marked out we've seen that price has tagged this area before and then made a strong move to the downside so we expect that this will happen again. We also have a bearish chart pattern, a rising wedge pattern. Usually when we see this pattern forming we see sudden weakness and price drops to the downside so this favours our bearish reversal thesis. Fundamentally the EUR is the 2nd strongest major currency, whereas the AUD is the 2nd weakest major currency so this doesn't favour our idea, but this isn't the full picture either. If we look a little further we can see that as of the most recent report on institutional positioning we saw a decrease in long positions on the EUR, signalling more bearishness could be on the horizon. Which favours our idea. We also have a speculation that the EUR will lose its strength that it once had as other currencies become stronger and we're starting to see this happen already. This is why fundamentally we like the look of the AUD over the EUR for now. With the technicals and fundamentals together we are bearish on EURAUD. This is a risky setup as it's going against the trend, however with trading you have to take risk because that is what trading is. The difference is having your risk under control, rather then gambling! Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Stay Safe - The JPI Team Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
14
EURUSD - Will The USD Become The Strongest Currency?Analysis: When we take a look at the technicals for EURUSD, price looks as if it's in an upwards trend as we're forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating to us that we want to long however this isn't what we see and we actually see early signs of a reversal happening. To begin with we have this downwards trendline. Although it has only been respected twice we expect that it will actually hold again for a third time and we will see price reject off of this area. Another confluence on why we think that this area will hold as resistance is because its been tested multiple times. If we look left we can see that price has come to this area before and we then saw a rejection. This has happened twice now and due to other confluence factors we see this happening again. Our final technical confluence factor that we have is this ascending triangle that we broke out of in may indicating to us that there could be some bearishness on the horizon. We're now retesting this ascending triangle and we expect that it will hold as resistance and that price will reverse back to the downside. A big reason for this setup though is the fundamentals so lets take a look at these too. Fundamentally the EUR is just about the 1st strongest major currency compared to the USD which is the 2nd strongest major currency but these two currencies are very close in strength. Whilst this looks like it goes against our idea if we look a little further we get more important data. As of the most recent filling we saw a decrease in long positions by institutions on the USD but we saw an even bigger decrease in short positions by institutions on the USD indicating that there could be some more bullishness coming to the USD whereas for the EUR we saw a decrease in short positions by institutions but an even bigger decrease in long positions by institutions which is bearish for the EUR. This is why we are actually fundamentally bullish on the USD over the EUR. so along with the technicals that we see we're bearish on the EURUSD. Just a note however, this isn't our favourite setup but it fits our plan. We know our strategy is profitable which is why we're taking this setup. We won't know the result until the end but what we know now is that this setup has an edge in the markets so its worth taking and we're confident in it. With that being said lets see if we get that move that we expect. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
20
EURAUD - EUR Weakness On Its Way?Analysis: Looking at the chart and price action we can clearly see that price is in a downwards trend. We're forming lower lows and lower highs which confirms that we're in a downwards trend. Bearing this being in mind we're only looking for short setups. If we look at the previous lower low we have a strong area to enter from. Whys this? Well this area has held multiple times in the past as both support and resistance so we expect that it will do it again. Also in a downwards trend we'd expect price to pullback to the previous lower low to put in a new lower high before continuing to the downside and this is what we're seeing now. For more added confluence at this area we also have the 61.8% fib retracement level which is often classed as the strongest fib level. We expect that sellers will be sat at this level wanting to push price down further, so this helps out our bearish thesis. We also have a downwards trendline very close by. This trendline has been respected in the past so we expect that it will be respected again and we will see sellers enter into the market pushing price down further. Fundamentally the EUR is the strongest major currency compared to the AUD which is the 6th strongest major currency so this really doesn't go in our favour but in recent news events we've actually see some bullish news come out for the AUD with regards to unemployment claims and other key events whereas for the EUR it's been slightly mixed. This to us looks like early signs that we could be seeing some bullishness for the AUD and some bearishness for the EUR soon, which is why we want to get on this move before it happens so we can catch a great trade. With all of the confluences that we have both technically and fundamentally we have a bias to the downside which is why we're bearish EURAUD. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
32
EURCHF - EUR Losing It's Strength?Analysis: As we can see from price action we're in a longer term downwards trend, as shown by the downwards trendline and in recent times we've also been trending to the downside so only shorts look good to us as we want to be going with the trend rather then fighting against it. At this area we've got a major level which has held as both support and resistance in the past and we expect that it will hold again now. To add more confluence to this setup at our area we also have both the 50% fib retracement level and the 61.8% fib retracement level which both could act as levels of resistance as we expect that sellers will be sat at both of these levels. We're also in what's often called the "golden zone" which is the area between the 50% and 61.8% so this is looking like a nice place to enter from. Another confluence we have to enter at this level is the longer term downwards trendline which is clearly visible. Its been respected multiple times in the past and every time this trendline has been touched we've seen a big drop in price so we expect that this will happen again if we get a touch of the trendline, so this goes in our favour. Now fundamentally the EUR is the strongest major currency compared to the CHF which is the 5th strongest major currency. Whilst this doesn't go in our favour this isn't the full picture. As of the most recent report we saw an increase of about the same for long and short positions on the CHF. This isn't a positive but this also isn't a negative, it's just neutral whereas for the EUR we saw a big decrease in long positions and an increase in short positions so this isn't looking good for the EUR and this could be early signs that the EUR is starting to lose some of its strength. This is why currently when comparing the EUR to the CHF fundamentally we actually prefer being bullish on the CHF, giving us our bearish bias for this pair. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
14