Jamie Trade Idea - Short EU50
Trade Idea: Selling EU50
Reasoning: Looking for selloff to be extended here, breaking through support.
Entry Level: 3652
Take Profit Level: 3439
Stop Loss: 3689
Risk/Reward: 5.76R
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Eustocks
Breakout in Euro Stoxx 50 with Target of 4320Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 4-Hour Chart. EU Stoxx 50 tested support around the 4080 price level and is currently testing the downward trendline off the 4240 high and the 4210 lower high. Expectations are for a breakout of the downward trendline towards the 4320 price level. This target was derived as there is a symmetrical triangle setup on the 4-hour timeframe. Indicative stop loss is set around the 4065 price level.
Technical Indicators
The Index recently tested support around the 200 fractal moving average and held. This support level is key to the bullish view of the Euro Stoxx 50. The Index currently crossed above the short (25-MA) and medium (75-MA) term fractal moving averages, which around the same zone of the downward trendline. The RSI is also above the 50 price level and there has been a positive crossover on the KST. These indicators complement the bullish view of the Index.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market. Stop loss will be set around the 4065 price level and a target of 4320. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 1.41.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Euro Stoxx 50 .
DAX30 - Short into 2021 updateWhy are we selling?
Updates in bold
Price is expensive and volatile - during the election process in the US, the worlds relationships are affected
The election is coming closer <8 days.
The S&P500 and NAS100 are not shown here but use reference for our previous ideas to show where price has reached our over exposed markers.
The stocks have recovered well from a V - shaped recovery, but the Gap fill has not occurred.
Covid 19 - second wave has concerned EU governements - with further pumping of money to "control" the costs of job losses and curb closures.
We have established a great supply or essentially a strongly overvalued market again in quick succession, however price will be giving some good areas to sell.
Germany light lockdown - retail investors were shook and banks covered positions, curfew in Paris, Italian local regions. UK tear 3, northern regions, London tier 2.
Particularly a break of 13,000 down to 10,000 and beyond for an extension.- good confirmation now to possibly break the range 13,000 - 12,000
Pay close attention to the markets like CAC, IBEX FTSE MIB and FTSE UK - all are showing signs of weakness and poor price action. - pay attention
The monthly shows us a perfect area which we are currently in to go short.
Keep your average price consistent when closing out profits or losses - this is important in trade management.
We are not selling at random times, there is a reason for this at specific levels. Because the market shows these levels.
The trade we will be taking is the least path of resistance.
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KISS - keep it simple stupid.
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The laws of stupidity: Society WILL be dragged down. (Serious)It is not a secret that since central banks bailed out banks, and are throwing trillions at the rich (via the stock market and via the lowest rates in history), inequality has gone parabolic and populism too, which caused Donald Trump to become president, and more worrying, a rise in the liberty threatening totalitarian far left.
People are looking for extreme & long term solutions to a simple short term problem.
But what if... After the crash & Hitler getting elected eventually, things did not go "back to normal" because of a very long term factor?
It's hard to tell since we do not see the big picture in our lifetimes, but clearly logic, REAL science (not the science that tells us there are 750 genders and carbon is a toxic poison), reason, is all disappearing. I have read that IQs were dropping, I have read that they were going up.
What I know is smart people reproduce very little and dumb people reproduce alot, and IQ (a big factor of intelligence) has been shown to be very heriditary.
I do not know how serious the laws of stupidity are, I am going to list them:
1: Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.
2: The probability that a certain person be stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.
3. A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses.
4: Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake.
5: A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person.
There are no defenses against stupidity, argued the Italian-born professor, who died in 2000. The only way a society can avoid being crushed by the burden of its idiots is if the non-stupid work even harder to offset the losses of their stupid brethren.
The laws come from this article:
qz.com
You can find the original book on Amazon.
Some interesting facts:
- Crime and poverty go dramatically down when IQ goes up. It's "not politically correct" and make weak cribabies cry but it is true.
www.ncjrs.gov
www.gwern.net
- Advances in Science Drives Economic Growth.
- Dumb people are a burden for the economy: The produce nothing and society has to throw food at them out of pity. This is the kind of thing that will make the weak cry but someone explain to them burrying your head in the sand does not solve everything. I'm not saying we should not help those less fortunate. But the more of those there are, the bigger the burden...
At the same time god made them dumb at birth, not me, maybe we aren't supposed to play god and help them out? Who knows.
It's easy to see there is a tipping point, where eventually the productive members of society CAN NOT balance out the burger flippers and other wellfare recipients.
Less science. Less innovation. Less smart people producing. More supersticious dum dums. Way more wellfare. We are not going in the right direction.
It is a simple economic law, and making it a taboo is not going to make it go away.
"So far so good" says the man falling off a 50-story building 1 meter above the ground, not looking down.
When is the tipping point? Did we already reach it?
BEL20: Lower long term buy opportunity on the Belgian market.The Belgian stock market is on an aggressive sell of since late April (1D RSI = 31.496, MACD = -58.680, Highs/Lows = -51.2357) after it failed to break the 3,870 - 3,910 1W Resistance Zone. The symmetry on a peculiar 1M Head and Shoulders pattern is uncanny so we will be using the 3,200 - 3,330 supply zone (red rectangle) as a continuous buy entry until the 1W Resistance Zone breaks. Our TP is initially 3,800. Keep an eye also for a potential Golden Cross as confirmation.
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WIG20: Strong long term bullish opportunity.The Polish index is approaching the 2,080 October 2018 Low and 1W Support Zone (2,013 - 2,085). With 1M on the lower levels of neutrality (RSI = 45.568, ADX = 19.801, MACD = 34.710) we are on excellent technical long term levels for a bullish reversal towards the 2,600 Resistance. If the E.U. fundamentals help in 2 years time it may even break this Resistance, which if crossed, is an automatic buy to 2,900.
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