EV
Is The EV Hype Over? How The Fed Is Destroying TeslaThe first quarter of 2024 is now over, closing in a record +10% YTD rally and an exceptional +43% YOY increase in the QQQ. Despite the markets pushing higher, Tesla is experiencing significant challenges, with a -30% decrease YTD and a -9% decline YOY. This performance has positioned Tesla as the worst performing megacap so far. Given these circumstances, it's essential to delve into both macroeconomic factors and technical analysis to understand what has happened and what is likely to happen moving forward.
The Macroeconomic Impact on Tesla
Two years ago, the Federal Reserve initiated a historic rate-hiking cycle, increasing interest rates from 0% to 5.5% within just over a year and maintaining this rate since July 2023. This shift in monetary policy has notably affected car financing rates, now at 8.2% for a five-year loan, which significantly discourages consumers from buying new vehicles, especially EVs.
The chart clearly illustrates an inverse correlation between Tesla stock and interest rates. Moreover, Tesla has operated exclusively during periods of historically low interest rates. Despite the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes nine months ago, the interest rate on car loans continues to rise. Further examination of inflation trends indicates that most common inflation measures have either plateaued or slowed their pace of deceleration, at a level inconsistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.
The M2 money supply and inflation expectations are critical indicators for predicting the direction of inflation. The peak in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) followed the peak in M2 YOY by 16 months, recently bottoming just three months before CPI YOY stopped making progress to the downside. This lagged correlation suggests that headline CPI is unlikely to continue its strong downward trend moving forward.
Moreover, inflation expectations, which remain well anchored, have also appeared to stop making progress to the downside, all remaining above 2%. This, combined with unchanged interest rates for nine months, suggests that the neutral rate of interest must be significantly higher than the pre-COVID trend.
Historically, recessions have played a key role in helping the Fed bring down inflation to their 2% target. However, current economic indicators, including low unemployment levels and easy financial conditions, suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near future, despite the fed funds rate staying unchanged at a two-decade high.
The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) captures the stimulative effects on the economy from the U.S. government's expansive fiscal policy. By borrowing and spending trillions directly from the Reverse Repo (RRP), the U.S. government has ingeniously counterbalanced the constrictive effects of tighter monetary policy without exerting upward pressure on long-term yields.
The prolonged inversion of the yield curve, significantly extended by the U.S. government's financial strategies, could mark this cycle as having the longest inversion in history. Typically, a steepening yield curve is a precursor to higher unemployment and economic recession. However, the steepening of the yield curve remains unlikely in the short term, with excess reserves still available in the RRP and the Treasury General Account (TGA).
With the U.S. employment sector still robust, showing historically low unemployment levels and low initial and continued claims, the likelihood of a significant uptrend in the unemployment rate seems low, as job openings are absorbing most of the excess labor supply and still remain well above the historical trend.
This suggests that the fed funds rate may remain at around 5% this year, maintaining car loan rates at a higher level for an extended period and consequently making EVs increasingly less affordable for the average consumer. This scenario is likely to lead to a continuation of price cuts and greater margin contractions.
Tesla's Technical Analysis Outlook
From a technical analysis perspective, Tesla stock faced rejection at the $205 horizontal resistance line and might be rejected from the $180 level, marked by the 0.236 Fibonacci level. The next significant support level is at $155, with a possibility of revisiting the January 2023 low of $110, given Tesla's stock has been in a downward trend ever since November 2021.
From a trend-based perspective, we can clearly see that TSLA stock is in a strong downtrend both in the 4H and daily timeframe with the EMAs and 20- week SMA trending lower.
Despite this unfavourable outlook, caution is advised when considering short positions in Tesla due to its market dominance and relatively stable financial position, making it a riskier target than other less financially secure EV manufacturers.
Concluding Thoughts
While the broader market demonstrates resilience, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is significantly shaping the EVs industry future. With the economy likely transitioning away from historically low interest rates into a higher interest rate environment, caution is advised. Investors may benefit from considering less interest-rate-sensitive options until a clearer picture of the inflationary landscape and its impact on the economy emerges.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
NKLA - Watch at or below 50 centsNKLA - Nikola is approaching the 50 Cents mark. A brief opportunity in a period of price weakness? Growth and loss become exponential at this point. A move from .50 to 1.00 would be a 100% increase in price. A move from .50 to .25 would be a 50% loss. Are prices below .50 optimal prices for scalpers or swing traders? Or, is it time to build a less expensive position trade?
TESLA Can it break the 1D MA50 and sustain an uptrend?Tesla has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone pattern since the July 19 2023 High. The recent Low (March 14 2024) came very close to the 152.50 Support, which is the April 27 2023 Low. This shows just how strong the current bearish structure is.
Medium-term traders/ investors can expect a sustainable uptrend only when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, which has been the Resistance all this time since January 09 2024 (almost 3 months). If it does break above it, we expect a +41.50% rise from the bottom (+5% more than the previous Bullish Leg), targeting $225.00. That is considered conservative based on the margins of the Bearish Megaphone as the previous two Lower Highs were priced on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
The fact that the 1D MACD has already formed a Bullish Cross below the 0.00 level, favors statistically the upside case, as in the past 12 months such a signal failed to break above the 1D MA50 only once out of 4 times in total.
Until it does break it though, the trend remains bearish short-term towards Support 1 (152.50).
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Institutional purchase at $165 : I hope I'm not mistaken.I bought earlier because I couldn't manage my emotions hahaha. Since it was at 210 or 215, I had placed my orders at $165, but I couldn't resist FOMO during the drop lol.
Earnings are forecast to grow 10.62% per year
Earnings grew by 19.2% over the past year
NIO - What now after loss?NIO hit the first TP of our trade set up and then violently reversed. We had a SL at 6.99 that got triggered and we took a loss for the rest of the position.
Although we took a loss, we can see how well our levels were respected, and why a SL at 6.99 was key. As soon as we fell below 6.99 we proceeded to fall another +10%, and now we sit at 6.34.
There is no trade set up as of yet, nothing in terms of the technical analysis we preach is suggesting we might reverse. However, this is an idea:
I KNOW IT'S NOT A FORMAL HARMONIC. But the fib extensions line up perfectly and 5.8-5.6$ is a massive area of support - as shown below:
So our plan is to wait and see what we do, it is possible that we spring back above $7, if that happens we will reassess and potentially open a trade there. The more likely event is that we move around between 6-7 dollars for a bit before reaching our 5.8-5.6 pocket where we could react at the 1.618 extension and bounce to $7 which is already a 22% move and a potential entry.
Stay tuned as another opportunity will arise, but it could take a while. BABA is an identical example where we fell below 78 (our stop loss) headed to 70, then back to 78 and now at 69. We stated that we would reconsider if we spring back above 78 (failed) or reach the 60 support (on the way).
It's not been the best of markets so far but we will be ready for the next opportunity with an strong mindset.
NIO BACK TO 10 BY 2025 !!NIO’s stock has potential for growth in the coming years due to several factors:
Analyst Predictions: The 8 analysts with 12-month price forecasts for NIO Inc. stock have an average target of 11.31, predicting an increase of 95.67% from the current stock price1.
Earnings and Revenue Growth: NIO is forecasted to grow earnings and revenue by 55.5% and 22.4% per annum respectively2.
Competitive Positioning: NIO is a significant player in the electric vehicle market, which is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. It has been able to position itself as a strong competitor, even causing disruptions for established players like Tesla
TESLA can start a new rally to $300Last time we looked at Tesla (TSLA) was two weeks ago (February 15, see chart below) when we called for the bottom of the Channel Down pattern on a standard Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern:
This time we switch to the longer term 1W time-frame where the stock is making a rounded bottom below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 6-month Lower Lows trend-line. The last time we saw a rounded bottom like this was during the December 2022 global market bottom. In fact, the sequence from Tesla's ATH to that bottom is quite similar to the price action from the July 2023 High to now.
A common dynamic on both patterns is the ATH Lower Highs trend-line, which has 4 rejections so far. Since however the stock made a +112.48% rise on the 2022 bottom and then on the next bullish leg a +94.91%, we expect it to initiate a new such rally of +75% (if each rally is weaker by 20%) and target the July 17 2023 Resistance. As a result we have a medium-term Target of $300.
Notice also how symmetrical the 1W RSI sequences between the two are. Right now we are below the Support level which in 2022 priced the bottom.
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NKLA Nikola Corp Nikola Corporation Reports Earnings Results for the Full Year Ended December 31, 2023
February 22, 2024 at 09:01 am EST
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Nikola Corporation reported earnings results for the full year ended December 31, 2023. For the full year, the company reported revenue was USD 35.84 million compared to USD 49.73 million a year ago. Net loss was USD 966.28 million compared to USD 784.24 million a year ago.
Basic loss per share from continuing operations was USD 1.08 compared to USD 1.67 a year ago. Basic loss per share was USD 1.21 compared to USD 1.78 a year ago. Diluted loss per share was USD 1.21 compared to USD 1.78 a year ago.
IS THE AUTO INDUSTRY ABOUT TO CRASH? FORD TRENDS Uh, okay, so I have zero clue what is going to happen and I didn't see this until now, but if I was trading per my style, I'd be loaded up on puts where I circled. I WOULD THEN ABOSLUTELY LOAD THE BOAT on the retouch. Potentially down to $8 and then probably calls for a short term bounce, which would have me realizing profits quickly in order to keep risk down. I would then be waiting for the next signal.
It's getting so close to crash time per multiple indicators, potentially, according to short term trend alignment which is far from an exact science, however, it shows a small pump of pretty much up to maybe $11, but wow! There is a LOT of downside showing.
Any thoughts on this?
The crash projections say Late Feb/Early March
But this market is moving faster every day, which is outpacing a lot of older traders that aren't able to adapt.
I mean, there is no question it bounces back, but.. how long, and how much, and how fast?
I think there is room to return to nearly $20.
In other words, if it's March, and the price is at 3.83, and you are hearing doom and gloom on the news. BUY CALLS. I wouldn't cover shares, I think the pace will be quite fast on the return for a lot of these stocks.
All in all, if you're still with me, the whole point I'm trying to make is this next crash is a trap, leading into a pump, which will cause "THE BIG ONE"
Trends point to next year early, but the market is fast, and you need to reanalyze in real time, meaning, it could literally happen in the next few weeks. I don't know, you don't know. We can't predict the future of stock prices, but we can use the information we see to swing the statistics in our favor for a successful trade, even if that means being patient and waiting for the right entry.
NIO, TEST DUMMIES NEEDED, BUY THE DIP OR LET CRASH?I like the Chinese stocks
Nio is one of them
There is some downside showing still as far as I can tell
It is leading to an old support trend, however, I don't know if that is relevant anymore.
I like the potential of buy the dip under $5.4
Subject to change quickly.
but right now, bullish on the next decent dip.
Drawn in line is what I'm currently seeing as an ideal scenario, do not follow line, instead follow trends and price targets. Line is often inaccurate, but helps me reanalyze my indicators.
The lowest number I could see was around 2.8 or 2.9. unlikely, but you never know, completely possible.
After 14.9, it can go higher, but a new chart will be needed, and will likely be needed before that point arrives.
RIVIAN Low risk buy opportunity at least on the short-term.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) hit the $21.00 Target following our November 29 2023 (see chart below) buy call but even though it confidently broke above the Bearish Megaphone, the price corrected aggressively back even below the Higher Lows Zone:
The price is at the moment coming off an oversold 1D RSI Double Bottom, naturally below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Even though the long-term pattern remains a Channel Up (blue), we have to consider the possibility of the (dashed) Channel Down breaking below it and establishing a new long-term trend. Until that happens, this is a short-term buy opportunity, with our Target being $23.00, right at the top of the Channel Down, on the (dotted) median of the Channel Up, representing a +62.17% rise from the Channel's bottom, similar to the December 26 2023 Lower High (peak).
If then we get a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line), which will be the stock's first time to do so, we will buy the bullish break-out and pursue our long-term Target of $35.50, which will represent a +142.79% rise from the bottom, similar to the last Bullish Leg of the long-term Channel Up that peaked on July 27 2023.
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TSLA is 2nd most oversold everThere was a plethora of PUT SELLING on NASDAQ:TSLA yesterday and the sellers must not be happy today. OUCH Most of the contracts were at least 6 months plus so they have time unless #Tesla stock gets put to them.
Weekly shows selling for last few weeks & the downtrend stopping all advances.
(not shown here, pls see profile for more info)
Daily, it's @ 2nd most oversold & the 1st was last year. It was not the norm until last year for Tesla to get this oversold.
The End of a Tesla Era! Tesla missed on earnings. Huge decline for this leading EV stock.
Tesla was already getting oversold on the daily chart, & now with this decline its a salavating opportunity for day traders.
I still think the true swing trade level is a bit lower from here. This weekly close will tell us more.
We have included an analysis of the XLY sector (Consumer Discretionary). We discuss 3 signals that have only ever happened over a 25 year period. The weekly Golden Cross.
Often this Weekly Golden cross is bullish long term but historically weak price follows in the short term.
RIVN Is Rivian the next TSLA?Yesterday, I observed some unusual blocks of calls in the options chain expiring on Feb 23, following the earnings release.
One of the most substantial positions was in the $20 strike price call, with options traders paying $1.7 million in premium.
Listening to analysts, some mentioned they expect a 'TSLA Model 3 moment' from RIVN as well.
In addition to Amazon, which has agreed to purchase 100,000 delivery vans from Rivian, AT&T is set to acquire its electric vans and R1 vehicles in a new pilot program starting in early 2024.
On the other hand, the CEO stated that he anticipates Rivian reaching a break-even point on each EV built by the end of this year. We will likely hear more about this on the earnings call.
I am extremely bullish on Rivian's upcoming earnings release!
Lucid Motors Liquidity GapIt would appear that LUCID GROUP is facing a sell off based on bad new, dilution of shares, lack of consumer demand. However, based on technical, it would appear to be a very aggressive sell-off it was a sell-off. Not beneficial to not allow for market to recover in regards to liquidity. Based on the aggressive downside moves, the probability of a cat bounce appears very high and I am honestly amazed at the open interest on puts that could look to be burnt.
3$ options expiring this week are trading at $.08 a contract at the moment and if there is any level of volatility to the bull side, the out of the money 3$ strike will flip into the money and dominoing into an extreme level of gamma exposure on the short side.
People shorting need to close their position at some point, like also contributing to the large put open interest which could be contracts shorted with shorted equity.
Polestar PSNY: Buy the bottom of the bottom of the bottom.Buy the bottom of the bottom of the bottom. It's the only chance to catch the lowest point in Polestar's history.
The purple trendline originates from the lowest points when the volume was at its highest, attempting to force the capitulation of all retail investors and a few hedge funds.
If I weren't already fully invested in this stock, it's exactly at the points of the two orange arrows that I would buy in the most aggressive manner possible. At the point between the orange arrows and the purple trendline!
And if this support doesn't hold? Don't worry... the stock will collapse like you've never seen before... so, since you're already in a tough spot, might as well give it a shot, haha!
Stop buying the dip without careful consideration... Stop buying the dip. You won't be rewarded.
It has been exactly 85 days, 58 market opening sessions, that the stock has been continuously plummeting, non-stop, with an 82% decline, without once regaining any previous high.
When I mention levels, I mean a previous peak.
Start buying when one of my levels: short attack or imbalance, is regained.
No need to rush. Billionaires control this market. They are the ones who decide.
Good luck !