Get started

EW

USOIL: Finally! Bearish Impulse! High R/R AttemptWe finally have a bearish impulse on OIL! I am looking for an entry on at the bearish bat on the lower TF. Check it out: If this is the first impulse of the drop to the mid 40's, this has a long drop ahead and some missed pivot targets below. I want to short this at the bat completion level to test this bearish impulse. SL is placed above the root of the impulse, as any rallies above this level invalidates the trade. TP set at unhit monthly pivot for October. Happy trading
TVC:USOILShort
by glennmercer
6
Oil Ready to Propel HigherThe USO has likely completed the current corrective move and is ready to resume the bullish uptrend as part of an extended larger degree wave (3). While there is the possibility that the correction extends to target the 61.8% retracement of wave 1 around 10.74, the minimum number of sub-waves to complete wave 2 has been reached. Moreover, extended wave 3s tend to be very bullish and wave 2s often only retrace to the 50% or even the 38.2% supports before resuming the uptrend. The ensuing move would see the USO rise upwards of 13 in the next couple of months, making for a nice medium-term gain as well as higher gas prices at the pump.
AMEX:USOLong
by Eboard10
Nearing a Top in the DollarThe Dollar is nearing a medium-term top as a wave B of (4). While we may have already reached the top, I would still expect one last move up with the DXY peaking just under the 100 mark around 99.7. This would fit well with the length of wave c being equal to wave a. Once a top is confirmed, the price movement should resume the downtrend to complete the corrective wave (4) somewhere under the previous low of 92 and above the 50% retracement of the full wave (3) extension of 89.7 around mid-to-end 2017. An alternative count could see wave (4) develop as a triangle which would extend the correction further time-wise. Interestingly, the count sees the dollar peak around the time of the US presidential elections. On Friday, following the announcement that the FBI would reopen the investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails, the dollar slipped against major currencies due to the political uncertainty tied to a Trump lead. I wonder if the pattern that is taking shape is an indication of things to come. Stay tuned...
TVC:DXYShort
by Eboard10
SLV - Likely to Bottom in NovemberThe next couple of days will determine the time horizon for Silver to complete the larger degree wave (2) correction. Wave 4s are known to be the most unpredictable ones as they can extend for a long time and are more likely to take complex forms than wave 2s. Given the current price movement, SLV is either going to move up as a wave c of iv to reach the mid 17s or complete as an ascending triangle in the mid 16 range, before the last leg down as a v of C that will signal the end of this correction and the resumption of the bull market sometime in November.
AMEX:SLV
by Eboard10
GDX - On the Brink of a Final Move Down?This past week we saw the gold minders rise into a wave iv of C topping at 25, followed by a sideways move that has yet to reveal its direction. This high could represent a nice topping area to make space for a last leg down as a wave v. However, the price movement this week could still see the GDX make a small move up to complete wave iv before resuming the downtrend to complete the larger wave C of 2 correction around the 22-21 range during the first half of November. If the price were to break above 26 before dropping below 24, I will consider the larger wave C of 2 correction already completed and will be looking for a retracement of the rise from the 22.5 low, although it does look like the miners still need one last leg down to shake off some more investors before resuming the bull market.
AMEX:GDX
by Eboard10
2
EURUSD 4H: VERY BEARISHHey traders! Last week's price action completed with a very bearish move and containment inside the monthly trendline (top, red). Five waves down confirms an impulse, and I want to sell the pullback toward the completion of a potential Gartley pattern. The bearish wave-5 may still have some juice left in the tank as the 1=5 level has yet to be tested. However, in order to achieve a higher R/R I want to wait for the retest of previous fourth wave resistance before entry. More to come!
Short
by glennmercer
4
GDX - Bull Market Soon to ResumeWe are nearing a bottom in the gold miners in the form of a wave 2 of the full wave 1 move up from the January low. The recent price movement on Friday gave us the setup for the final leg down as a v of C which can take the shape of a 5-wave impulsive move down or an ending diagonal. The bottom should be struck between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the larger impulsive wave 1 high of 31.79, aiming for the 22-20 range. Once the correction is complete, we should then be prepared for the larger degree wave 3 move upwards that will take the GDX to at least 50.
AMEX:GDX
by Eboard10
2
GDXJ - Ending Diagonal In ProcessI'm seeing wave C possibly shaping up as an ending diagonal to complete wave 2 of the larger degree correction. If the price movement follows the blue count on the chart, we should be going down in 3 waves a-b-c to form a bottom around the 50% retracement of the larger impulsive wave 1 high of 52.50, potentially going a bit lower. This would be an excellent opportunity to catch the following impulsive wave 3 up which will very likely take the GDXJ all the way up to 100 and above.
AMEX:GDXJ
by Eboard10
HMY - Correction Nearing an EndHarmony Gold is following the correction seen across the gold miners. I see two similar counts playing out over the next few weeks: Blue count: the whole wave C is an ending diagonal and we are currently in wave iv of the final move down. Red count: an alternative count would see us fall to lower lows beginning of next week to complete wave iii of C and then make one last bounce upwards before the final leg down. Either count would have HMY bottom within a month or so and potentially take us down to the 2.60-2.40 range.
NYSE:HMY
by Eboard10
USDCAD Trendline Breakout: Sell Wave-(v) to GartleyHey traders! I like a short position here as we're riding a trendline and there's a missed pivot below price. On the daily chart, we have a big bearish candle following a pinbar, a clearcut reversal pattern. I want to be short on the pullback toward the completion of a Gartley pattern. If price breaches SL but does not hit invalidation level, I may re-enter depending on price action. After target is achieved, I want to continue short toward missed weekly pivot unless price action shows signs of bullishness. Happy trading!
Short
by glennmercer
7
GBPUSD Long: Making Sense of the CorrectionHey traders! I'm trying to make some sense of this whipsaw action after the flash crash. We can see a correction is in process after the bearish impulse on 10/6. This trade capitalizes on a possible double combination wave: triangle -> flat -> zig-zag, where we are trading the final stretch of Wave-c. I want to move my stop to B/E quickly to protect the position from a potential triangle, which is a possibility in this scenario. However, I'm counting wave-a as a five wave sequence which if true will follow through as a zig-zag, hence this trade idea. More updates to follow. Happy trading
Long
by glennmercer
3
OIL: Ready to Drop!Hey traders, I am now actively looking for a short on OIL. The final pop that we were waiting for has followed through as planned and a triangle is forming which may mark the end of the bullish corrective price action. I would like to see one final bull flag rally and a nice touch on the upper trendline of the triangle before the dropoff. I will be looking for bearish impulses to ride down toward the missed pivots within the next 24-48 hours. Happy trading, and more to come
TVC:USOILShort
by glennmercer
Silver - Bottom in SightThe correction in Silver should soon approach a bottom targeting the 61.8% retracement of the full impulsive Wave 1 that started in December last year. If the bottom is followed by a strong price movement to the upside, we will have resumed the bull trend in a Wave 3 that should take us to at least 28 and potentially higher if it develops into an extended wave. A drop below 16.50 will have me reconsider the count with potentially new lower lows seen in the long term trend though that is unlikely at this point. The alternative red count follows the same overall price movement with no changes to the price target for the bottom.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by Eboard10