USDJPY: BULLISH ASCENDING 🔺BIAS: BULLISH 🔺
TECHNICAL PROJECTION: BULLISH 🔺
We have a bullish bias that price will rise to 137.
Once there is upside confirmation, bullish momentum is expected to carry to 141 target.
AREAS OF INTEREST:
H4 time frame, break of resistance at 137
H4 time frame, support at 134.225 - attempting to catch the bullish "E" wave
FUNDAMENTAL PROJECTION: JPY WEAK
B.O.J remains on its dovish path as the central bank has:
Kept all policy settings unchanged at their June meeting & stated that rates will stay low for the foreseeable future and won’t hesitate to add stimulus if the economy needs it.
The next central bank meeting will be on 21 July 2022 - which may be forced to change its economic outlook to a more hawkish stance.. but only time will tell!
Ewave
BTC ABC correction over, now to re-test 51-54K critical rangeFib Retracement created off the ATH and recent low. BTC had rallied but failed to reclaim and hold the .702 retracement.
It then entered an A-B-C correction, textbook. On October 3, we see BTC cleared the B-wave high, circled in red. This signaled the end of the A-B-C correction. Technically speaking, a move even $1 higher than the previous B-wave high ends the ABC pattern. Prior to that, even with the upward trading, BTC could technically have gone lower than what is now solidified as the C-wave low had it not cleared the B-wave high.
Today (yesterday too) we see that playing out. Expect volatility in both directions but also expect a challenge into 54K.
mastering elliot waves. wave measurements in real time.When you are just learning something I think it is best not to perform it on a live chart right away. You will most likely still be grasping concepts and run a high risk of failure and frustration.
That being said, here are some basic applications of using Elliot wave measurements on something that's happening now. The 4 hour time frame is wide enough where you are capturing a majority of the forest, but still seeing details.
What's the plot today?:
The plot here is that there was a bullish monowave, a retracement of that monowave resulting in nondirectional movement, the nondirectional movement then stayed above important retracement levels and has now ended by breaking above important extension levels. If that is the same story you came up with then we are both on the same page, and with a little luck, doing something right.
You could say "what are you doing calling an impulse on a 4 hour time frame a monowave?" You'd be right, but calling it a poliwave doesn't lighten the cognitive load considering where price is currently so I'm sticking with monowave for simplicity's sake.
Another basic e-wave analysisA lot depends on how you count your waves. If we consider March 2020 - April 2021 to be an impulse wave, and the area within the two vertical yellow lines to be an ABC correction, then another impulse wave can be expected with about the same angle as the previous impulse wave. This would get us to about 80,000 USD by the end of this year.
Forex Charts Complete Analysis -10 Seconds Elliott Waves Lets have a look at a spectrum of Forex pairs
Some good action on Pounds today and likely to continue over the next few days / weeks.
Brexit Issue is still creating alot of trouble for the pounds
The dollar is under pressure, the more they print the lower it goes or something along those lines
BTC Elliott Wave Count - Near Term Top? #BTC Has BTC reached a temporary peak based on Elliott Wave Count methodology? The analysis is based on the available and relevant price data from the Coinbase Exchange. Wave 5 appears to have peaked at the US$3000 level, and is now correcting. Affecting BTC's near term price uncertainty is the UASF BIP148 vs Lightning Network issue that has not been resolved as of writing this post. Fibonacci retracement levels are included in the chart.
www.tradingview.com
USDCAD Short Opportunity - 4hr & End to Daily Correction? USDCAD is looking to approach another sell area in its daily corrective move we have all been following so intently. There have been many setups on offer during this period and this short setup is by no means any different. Nevertheless I will touch on why, further down in this piece, this correction may be coming to an end!
If price doesn't move into no mans land but respects it, then it should breakout of this horizontal triangle - patience is important here. To trade this setup, obviously confirmation through your strategy should be your main priority before entering.
In my opinion the green line below no mans land (the top trend line of the daily corrective move) will provide us with the best entry locations for shorting this pair.
On the daily chart depending on how you look at the last 5 or so months, one may come to the conclusion that we are currently trading the C wave of a corrective structure that has followed an earlier impulsive move down through waves 1,2,3,4 and 5 (we can possibly say we are even riding the E wave as the structure is in a sort of horizontal triangle to which would also support this argument). If this is in fact the case we will likely see a continuation of the downtrend seen prior to the corrective structure, which means a price movement much larger than we have seen over the last few months - therefore meaning a potentially fantastic opportunity to get short and hold out for as long as you have the nerve.
Of course markets move where they want when they want so we could simply see a continuation of the current uptrend. However if we see a break of the trend line of the entire corrective structure at the bottom of the chart, you can better your bottom dollar I will be shorting some more as it will be an indication market bulls are leaving.
AUDUSD Head & Shoulders - 4 HRAnother USD position. This one has eluded me for a couple of weeks but became clear to me a couple of days ago that a head and shoulders was forming after the 5th touch of the pendant (horizontal triangle) seen here with these trend lines in green and cyan blue.
This corrective structure hit the 5th or the E wave on what we call the 'head' of this H&S pattern so are therefore more likely to see a break of the bottom trend line if we see a break and close below the neckline of the head and shoulders. If price doesn't break and close below this level it is likely to instead break through the top trend line therefore ruining all possibility of a short entry.
I entered yesterday, the 4th October, to get the best possible position for this short as can be seen on the chart.
This position can still be entered at a lower level when/if price hits the bottom, after it pulls back for another run south indicated by the red and green arrows.
USD/CAD Possible E WaveUSD/CAD is moving within an ascending Channel. I expect a last downmove to the support zone at 1.29950 and then an upmove to complet the E Wave. I'll enter my long Position after a breakout on a lower Timeframe.
Trade safe, Daniel
Likes and comments are appreciated and would keep me motivated