#BRAZIL Looks bullish, let's see if it samba! #EWZ #BRAZIL Looks bullish, let's see if it samba! #EWZ . Dollar cost average if drops to 26$. Couple of months timeframe.
I dont know why but it should go up :P
EWZ
Closed: EWZ June 17th 25 Long P/March 18th 26/30... for a 4.76 credit.
Comments: The most I could make on this was 5.00 (the width of the diagonal), so closed it out here with 39 days to go, rather than roll out the short call to April or hang out for the remaining extrinsic to bleed out. My cost basis in the entire setup was a 4.22 debit. (See Post Below). Closing it out here for a 4.76 credit results in a small winner of .54 ($54).
$EWZ Weekly Pivot Point - Trend is now upTrader Vic (Victor Sperandeo) says you gotta go long here !
By his "Principles of Professional Speculation" , EWZ weekly has broken down trend and pivoted to an up trend.
I'm also liking the volume and and MACD bullish confluence.
I went long starter size March 32/34 debit spread , and will add with more confirmation.
Some whale also bought 17K of these at $1.14 on Friday , let's see !
Closed (IRA): EWZ June 17th 25 Long Calls... for 7.45/contract.
Comments: With the short leg having expired worthless, went ahead and closed out the long leg of this diagonal here rather than covering it again. My cost basis was 6.37/contract as of the last short leg roll. (See Post Below). Closing out the long leg here results in a 1.08 ($108)/contract winner (which seemed to have taken forever).
Rolled: EWZ February 18th 32 Short Call to March 18th 30 Call... for a .38 credit.
Comments: Rolled the short call aspect of my long call diagonal, the back month of which is in June at the 25 strike. There wasn't much extrinsic left in it, so I first looked at rolling down to the 30 intraexpiry, but that wasn't paying squat, so rolled it down and out to a strike slightly above my cost basis/break even, which is now 4.54 with a 29.54 break even.
I still also have the 24 short put on, but that still has .30 left in it, so will wait until it approaches worthless before rolling.
Opened: EWZ February 18th 24 Short Put... for a .53 credit.
Comments: Adding a short put element to what was a long call diagonal (June 17th 25 Long Call/February 18th 32 Short Call). Up to this point, my cost basis in the diagonal alone was 5.45, implying a 30.45 break even relative to where EWZ is currently trading at 27.90. I wanted to bring the setup break even closer to where EWZ is currently trading, and selling this put results in a net cost basis of 4.92 with a break even of the long call strike (25) + 4.92 or 29.92.
I'll look to roll the short strangle (short put/short call) as a unit to reduce cost basis further, assuming we don't get a bodice ripper up to >32, at which point the diagonal should begin to converge on max.
Rolling: EWZ January 21st 32 Short Call to February... for a .25 credit.
Comments: The short call aspect of a long call diagonal, the back month long of which is at June 25 strike. Rolling at >50% max, reducing my cost basis further in the setup, which is now at 5.45 with a 31.45 break even.
Closed: EWZ January 21st 25 Short Put... for a .28 debit.
Comments: Closed via order to take profit at 50% max of what the January 21st 25 was worth when I rolled it from December to January. I rolled this once and collected a total of .90, (See Posts Below), so closing it out here results in a realized gain of .90 - .28 = .70 ($70).
Rolling (IRA): EWZ December 17th 33 Short Call to January... for a .22/contract credit.
Comments: Rolling the short call leg of my EWZ long call diagonal on approaching worthless (it's gone nearly no bid), the long leg of which is at the 25 strike out in June. (See Post Below).* My cost basis in the setup is now 6.37 with a 31.37 break even with a profit potential of the width of the diagonal (8.00) minus my cost basis (6.37) or 1.63 ($163/contract).
I considered just allowing the short call to expire worthless, waiting for a bounce, and then re-covering the long call leg, but you never know if it will continue lower or sideways, at which point you say to yourself, "Well, if only I would've remained covered, I'd have reduced my cost basis further."
Rolling: EWZ December 17th 32 Short Call to January... for a .25 credit.
Comments: With only 14 days to go in the short call aspect of my long call diagonal/Poor Man's Covered Call, rolling it out on this little bounce here to reduce cost basis in the setup further.
My cost basis in the diagonal is now 5.72 with the resulting diagonal spread being the June 25 long call/January 21st 32 short call.
Another floor dropped under EWZ. EWZA dropping ETF with a beautiful impulsive A Wave. Since we broke Floor of Wave A, C Wave is confirmed by definition. And we now look to how low this one is likely to go.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
Rolling (Margin): EWZ December 17th 25 Short Put to January 21st... for a .32/contract credit.
Comments: Rolling here at greater than 50% max for a realized gain and a credit while keeping buying power effect essentially the same, since I'm rolling this "as is" (i.e., from the December 25 strike to the January 25 strike). I originally collected .58 in credit/contract (See Post Below), so have collected a total of .90 ($90)/contract with this roll relative to a current short put value of .57, so have locked in .37 ($37) of realized gains so far. 30-day implied is still pretty decent at 41.3%; otherwise, I'd probably just leave it alone running into expiry.
Closing (IRA): EWZ November 19th 28 Short Puts... for a .04/contract debit.
Comments: In for .51/contract (See Post Below), out for .04 here. .47 ($47) profit per contract.
Opening: EWZ December 17th 25 Short Put... for a .58/contract credit.
Comments: With 30-day implied at 38.6% (i.e., >35), opening up some more EWZ in the margin account.
On margin: .58 on buying power effect of 2.52, 23.0% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect. Cash secured: .58 on notional risk of 24.42; 2.4% ROC as a function of notional risk.
Rolling (IRA): EWZ Nov 33 Short Call to December 33... for a .20 credit.
Comments: Rolling the short call aspect of my long call diagonal in EWZ here. I originally paid 6.79 (See Post Below), so this reduces my cost basis to 6.59 and my break even to 31.59. Will look to now take profit at the width of the diagonal (8.00) - the credit received for the roll (.20) or 7.80.
Rolling (Small Account): EWZ November 19th 32 to December 17th... for a .29 credit.
Comments: Rolled the short call aspect of my long call diagonal (See Post Below). Cost basis is now 6.26 - .29 = 5.97 with a break even of 30.97.
Opening (Small Account): EWZ June/Nov 25/32 Long Call Diagonal.. for a 6.26 debit.
Comments: Here, doing a similar trade to the one I did in my IRA (but with far fewer contracts) (See Post Below), buying the long-dated 88 delta call in the June expiry and selling the at-the-money call in November to create what amounts to a synthetic covered call. I paid 6.26 for a 7-wide, so my max profit potential is the width of the diagonal (7.00) minus what I paid (6.26) or .74 ($74), which would be a return on capital of 11.8% assuming the setup converges on max (7.00).
Immediately after fill, I entered an order to take the whole shebang off for 6.95 if that happens, which is a nickel short of max. Naturally, if that doesn't happen as we approach expiry of the front month, I'll roll the short call out for a credit, reducing my cost basis further, as well as improving my break even (which is currently the long strike (25) + 6.26 = 31.26).
Opening (IRA): EWZ June/November 25/33 Long Call Diagonal... for a 6.79/contract debit.
Comments: Taking a directional shot on weakness, with some opportunity to reduce cost basis in the setup via roll of the short call if I don't get the move immediately.
Here, buying the 90 delta in the back month, selling the at-the-money in the front one, resulting in a 31.79 break even relative to the 32.58 where it's trading at the moment.
Paying 6.79 for an 8-wide, with max profit being the difference between the width of the diagonal (8.00) and what I paid (6.79) or 1.21 ($121), which would be a 17.8% return on capital as a function of buying power effect, assuming price for the entire shebang converges on 8.00.
Opening (IRA): EWZ November 19th 28 Short Put... for a .51/contract credit.
Comments: 30-day at 39.3% and somewhat weak relative to the June high.
$EWZ Long at bottom of channelEWZ sweepers today and I like the entry here at the bottom of an upward trend channel.
October $37C has 90K OI if you like the idea of going long here.
A good set up with a good P/L on EWZLooking for a bounce on EWZ within next 2 months with a first take profit in the short term.
Closing (IRA): EWZ October 15th 29 Short Puts... for a .15/contract debit.
Comments: Opened these for a .45/contract credit. (See Post Below). With 42 days to go and implied at <35%, going ahead and doing just Plain Jane profit taking here, since 42 days is a long time to wait for the remaining $15. .30/$30 per contract profit.
$PAGS: to make you BAGS?Today we are witnessing a sharp turn around in Emerging Markets $EEM after the Jackson Hole meeting. $IWM a strong indicator of risk tolerance has seen a sharp move back up into it's middle pivot. Could the continued low rate environment and strong economy be enough to continue the rush into risk-on assets? Keep a close eye on $EWZ though (Brazil ETF in which PAGS is located) to pin point entries. On the technical side of things, keep an eye on entries in between the two trend lines in which the current candle stick is located between and stops outside of the bottom two trendlines. I'd look to scale in over the next couple of weeks and see how strong the dips in $IWM, $HYG and $EEM are to see how much continuation is possible to the upside. Good luck traders!
