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$PAGS: to make you BAGS?Today we are witnessing a sharp turn around in Emerging Markets $EEM after the Jackson Hole meeting. $IWM a strong indicator of risk tolerance has seen a sharp move back up into it's middle pivot. Could the continued low rate environment and strong economy be enough to continue the rush into risk-on assets? Keep a close eye on $EWZ though (Brazil ETF in which PAGS is located) to pin point entries. On the technical side of things, keep an eye on entries in between the two trend lines in which the current candle stick is located between and stops outside of the bottom two trendlines. I'd look to scale in over the next couple of weeks and see how strong the dips in $IWM, $HYG and $EEM are to see how much continuation is possible to the upside. Good luck traders!
NYSE:PAGSLong
by Fox_Technicals
EWZ$EWZ is literally a textbook channel play. Look at this, just admire it for a second. It couldn’t be more defined, more perfect. We’re currently seeing a beautiful rejection off the bottom portion of this massive channel on the daily candlesticks, we can expect to ride this out all the way until $42.02+ - simple as that. The RSI is almost oversold at 35.25, which means we have the room we need for some upside movements. Buying volume is increasing, and the candlesticks are at the bottom of the Bollinger bands. The last few days, they finally closed within the lines, which could indicate a change in momentum towards the upside. If it changes direction and closes below the channel’s previous low of $33.90, I’ll be going for a short position. But if it closes above $34.80 like we’re expecting, we have nothing but tendies at the end of this rainbow. Close <$33.90 -> Sell | Close >$34.80 -> Buy
AMEX:EWZ
by SmoothJB
The Week Ahead: EWZ, MJ, XLE, IWM/RUT Premium SellingHighly Options Liquid Single Name With Earnings in the Rear View Mirror Ranked by 30-Day Implied With a 30-Day >50% and a Share Price >$10: FCEL (0/104) M (11/75) CCL (0/59) PLAY (0/59) CHWY (0/52) Highly Options Liquid Exchange-Traded Funds Ranked by 30-Day Implied With a 30-Day >35%: EWZ (8/73) MJ (2/51) XLE (0/48) XRT (2/41) GDXJ (6/41) LIT (18/38) XBI (36/36) Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds Ranked by 30-Day: IWM (1/27) QQQ (0/23) SPY (0/16) Musings: If it isn't obvious, the number of exchange-traded funds with a 30-day implied volatilty percentage >35% have dwindled dramatically over the past several weeks, limiting premium selling opportunities if you're not interested in playing single name. That being said, it's not a bad time to relax a little bit, allow plays you've put on in higher volatility to play out, and wait for "the next one," whether it be in the market as a whole, or in a given sector. Since I've already got plays on in EWZ and MJ (See Posts Below), I may consider something in XLE, with the caveat being that its implied is low in the 52 week range, with the monster volatility pop we had in 2020 still holding sway over where current levels are relative to where they've been. All that having been said, I'm in the mode of generating "cash flow" regardless of the volatility environment, and so will likely continue to programmatically sell my weekly, 45 days 'til expiry short put in the broad market exchange-traded fund having the highest implied volatility, which here is IWM, along with adjusting any rungs of my longer-dated SPY short put ladder to window dress, take profit, or add units to generate credit and keep that theta pile on and burning. I'd naturally prefer higher volatility to muck about in, but can't have everything.
AMEX:EWZ
by NaughtyPines
Unpredictable Brazil in a critical area - 08/03/2021Although moving averages aren't looking good, EWZ is in a big support zone (white area). In this Elliott waves analysis EWZ hit the 0.382 (30.78) fibonacci retraction for wave 4 and if this is the end of it, wave 5 could hit 0.618 (42.01) or 1 (49.15) of fib extentions. The ex-president Lula news made the market drop today, but Lula isn't worse than current president Bolsonaro. I'm neutral but I expect a further drop moved by fear and uncertainty before go up.
AMEX:EWZ
by outbreeak
THE WEEK AHEAD: HAL, NFLX, AA, UAL EARNINGS; EWZ, XLE, SLV, IWMHIGHLY LIQUID OPTIONS SINGLE NAME EARNINGS (LISTED CHRONOLOGICALLY IN ORDER OF ANNOUNCEMENT AND SCREENED FOR >50% 30-DAY IMPLIED): HAL (13/61/13.9%),* Tuesday, before market open NFLX (25/50/11.3%), Tuesday, after market close AA (18/69/15.9%), Wednesday, after market close UAL (13/64/14.8%), Wednesday, after market close From a bang for your buck perspective: AA ranks first, UAL, second, followed by NFLX, and HAL. I already have a covered strangle on in UAL and don't anticipate putting on more single name risk in the IRA (which is my primary focus running into retirement), but will naturally post a play should I get into one. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH >35% 30-DAY AND RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE FEBRUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: EWZ (18/45/10.3%) XLE (23/42/9.7%) SLV (25/42/9.4%) GDX (12/38/9.2%) XBI (18/37/8.7%) KRE (16/36/8.7%) EWW (15/36/7.5%) I'm already in everything here but for KRE and EWW (the lowest bangs for your buck on the list) and the February monthly is a bit short in duration here for me (34 days) and March a tad long (62 days), so I may not do much this week in these, although going out to March with another rung in my GDX, SLV, and XBI positions isn't out of the question. BROAD MARKET RANKED BY 30-DAY IMPLIED: IWM (24/32/6.8%) QQQ (22/30/6.4%) SPY (16/24/4.8%) DIA (13/23/4.6%) EFA (14/20/3.8%) In spite of the fact that IWM and/or RUT have the higher 30-day, I may look at adding a July (181 days) rung to the SPY short put ladder I have on in the IRA, targeting the strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit (which would currently be something like the 240), and do the kind of "opportunistic rolling" I've been doing with shorter duration rungs. (See Post Below). Although most frown upon going out this far in time, it's a way to deploy otherwise underutilized buying power that will earn something >0% while I work shorter duration setups or wait for a higher implied volatility environment and/or greater weakness. Additionally, my goals for the IRA are somewhat modest from a return on capital standpoint: I'm not looking to hit homers or be an incredibly attentive investor, opting for a once a week or even a once a month schedule of looking at things, making adjustments as appropriate, and/or taking off stuff approaching worthless that doesn't merit hanging onto due to the amount of time left in the contract. * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where the 30-day is relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, thirty day implied; and the third, the percentage the at-the-money short straddle in the February monthly is paying as a function of stock price.
NYSE:HAL
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: KBH, DAL, ICLN, SLV, EWZ, KRE, XLE, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: There aren't a ton of earnings next week. Some financials are announcing, but I generally don't play those a ton for volatility contraction, since they never really frisk up that much, and all are below 50% 30-day implied here. KBH provides the best bang for your buck with the implied metrics I'm generally looking for (>50%), followed by DAL. Both, however, are at the low end of their 52-week range, in part due to the massive vol spike we experienced in March, which will make that metric somewhat misleading here. KBH (18/56/14.5%),* Tuesday after market close. DAL (7/53/12.9%), Wednesday before market open. C (17/44/9.8%), Friday before market open. JPM (14/32/7.8%), Friday before market open. WFC (22/44/10.6%), Friday before market open. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE FEBRUARY 19TH AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: ICLN (14/79/20.0%) SLV (31/48/11.3%) EWZ (16/44/10.6%) XLE (22/41/10.2%) KRE (17/42/9.9%) BROAD MARKET: Pictured here is an IWM short put out in March at the strike paying at least 1% of the strike in credit. An IRA trade, I would look to roll up intraexpiry to lock in realized gain with >45 days 'til expiry, take profit on approaching worthless (<.20), and sell call against if assigned. Currently 67 days 'til expiry, it is understandably a bit long in duration, but I already have some on in the February monthly. IWM (26/34/7.6%) QQQ (21/31/6.9%) DIA (14/24/5.2%) SPY (11/24/5.0%) EFA (14/21/4.7%) * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where implied is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, the 30-day implied volatility; and the third, what the at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of the stock price.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: XOP/XLE, GDXJ/GDX, KRE, EWZ, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: It's a light week for earnings announcements, which means it's an even lighter week for options liquid underlyings, none of which meet my cut-off for 30-day implied >50%. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE JANUARY AT THE MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: XOP (18/59/15.8%) GDXJ (16/42/13.2%) XLE (26/46/11.6%) KRE (24/40/11.4%) GDX (17/40/11.4%) USO (7/46/11.0%) EWZ (15/39/10.6%) SLV (25/38/10.3%) Honorable Mention: GLD (23.5/18.5/5.0%) * * * Pictured here is an XOP January 15th 46 short put, which was paying .92 as of Friday close (2.04% ROC as a function of notional risk at max; 15.5% annualized at max). I still like bullish assumption, pandemic recovery plays in the oil space, although implied volatility has bled out quite a bit here, and the break even (45.08) would be above the 2020 lows. GLD gets an honorable mention here due to its being nearly 15% off of its early August highs with the January 15th strike nearest the 16 delta (the 157) paying .94 as of Friday's close (.60% as a function of notional risk at max; 4.6% annualized). The ROC %-age isn't great, however, but if you're looking to establish a gold position, now might be the time to consider starting one. I'm already working one here, (See Post Below), and will consider adding once December out-of-the-money's fall off or I manage them. Alternatively, look to establish a position in SLV, GDXJ, or the more liquid GDX, all of which are more scalable due to size and provide more bang for your buck, with the GDXJ January 15th 42 paying .70 (1.7% ROC as a function of notional risk; 12.9% annualized), the GDX January 15th 30 paying .40 (1.4% ROC at max; 10.3% annualized), and the SLV January 15th 19 paying .30 (1.6% ROC at max as a function of notional risk; 12.9% annualized at max). For those of a defined risk bent, the GLD January 15th 153/158 short put vertical was paying .54 at the mid as of Friday close (10.8% ROC at max; 82.1% annualized). BROAD MARKET IWM (23/29/7.8%) QQQ (19/25/6.9%) DIA (16/22/5.8%) SPY (13/21/5.3%) EFA (16/18/4.6%) Volatility has pissed out mightily here, and the <10% the at-the-money short straddles are paying in the January cycle are reflective of that. The IWM January 15th 157 short put was paying .94 (.6% ROC at max as a function of notional risk; 4.6% annualized) as of Friday close, which isn't exactly great. Here, defined is more compelling from a pure ROC %-age return perspective (it usually is), with the IWM January 15th 158/163 was paying .54 as of Friday's close (10.8% ROC at max; 82.1% annualized) and its cash-settled counterpart RUT, paying 5.10 for the January 15th 1610/1660 with similar ROC %-age metrics with the short option legs camped out at the 16 delta strike. Naturally, you can be more aggressive, bringing in the setup more toward the expected move.
AMEX:XOP
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: GPS EARNINGS; KRE, XLE, EWZ, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: Only one underlying makes my cut for a earnings announcement volatility contraction play: GPS (25/70/14.9%),* which announces on Tuesday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Tuesday's session. To me, it's small enough to short straddle, with the pictured setup paying 3.72 (.93 at 25% max). Alternatively, go short strangle: the December 18th 22/29 was paying 1.25 (.62 at 50% max). Of a defined risk bent? Go iron fly with the December 18th 20/25/25/30 and get better than risk one to make metrics, with the setup paying 3.00 even as of Friday close (.75 at 25% max). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY BANG FOR YOUR BUCK (JANUARY 15TH EXPIRY): KRE (22/40/14.0%) (Yield: 3.43%) XLE (25/43/12.5%) (Yield: 6.15%) EWZ (17/43/12.2%) (Yield: 2.89%) GDX (13/37/11.7%) (No dividends) SLV (22/37/10.8%) (No dividends) BROAD MARKET RANKED BY BANG FOR YOUR BUCK (JANUARY 15TH EXPIRY): IWM (24/30/8.5%) QQQ (20/26/7.6%) SPY (18/23/6.2%) EFA (16/19/5.3%) * -- The first metric is volatility rank/percentile (i.e., where 30-day implied volatility is relative to where it's hung out the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied; and the third, what the December at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price ("Bang for Your Buck").
G
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: ROKU, WYNN, SQ EARNINGS; XOP, USO, GDXJ, EWZEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS: ... Screened for options liquidity and 30-day implied greater than 50% and ranked by "bang for your buck": ROKU (38/31/16.4%),* announcing Thursday after market close. WYNN (27/76/14.7%), announcing Wednesday (no time specified). SQ (43/74/14.3%), announcing Thursday after market close. PYPL (56/60/11.6%), announcing Monday after market close. GM (20/59/11.4%), announcing Thursday after market close. QCOM (45/54/10.9%), announcing Wednesday after market close. BABA (65/55/10.5%), announcing Thursday after market close. Pictured here are two 2 x expected move setups in ROKU, one in November (19 days 'til expiry), and one in December (47 days 'til expiry). The November setup was paying 8.55 at the mid price as of Friday close, with delta/theta of -.89/51.22; the December: 10.13 at the mid price as of Friday close, with delta/theta of -.95/27.88. I could see doing either, with the primary benefit of the shorter duration being that the volatility contraction tends to be more rapid, and with the primary benefit of the longer duration one being that you've got a little bit more room to be wrong. If you're of a more defined risk bent, look for an iron condor setup paying at least one-third the width of the wings in credit, such as the November 20th 160/165/265/270, paying 1.63. Look to put this on in Thursday's session prior to market close, adjusting strikes as necessary to accommodate movement between now and then. With the exception of GM, the remainder of the underlyings can be short strangled or iron condored, but would go short straddle or iron fly in GM due it's size (34.53 as of Friday close). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE DECEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%: XOP (23/69/18.7%) USO (14/71/17.5%) GDXJ (22/56/15.7%) EWZ (29/56/15.5%) XLE (38/57/14.9%) GDX (23/46/13.3%) SLV (28/48/13.0%) XBI (36/44/12.1%) EWW (35/49/11.6%) IWM (42/42/10.8%) SMH (28/42/10.9%) QQQ (43/40/10.8%) BROAD MARKET: IWM (42/42/10.8%) QQQ (43/40/10.8%) SPY (38/38/9.6%) EFA (33/30/8.4%) IRA DIVIDEND-EARNERS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE DECEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%: EWZ (29/56/15.5%) XLE (38/57/14.9%) KRE (32/50/14.1%) SLV (38/48/13.0%)** XBI (37/44/12.1%) * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage of stock price the November at-the-money short straddle is paying. ** -- SLV does not pay a dividend.
NASDAQ:ROKU
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: MU, BBBY EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJ, SLV, EWZ, KRE, XLEEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS: MU (27/57/10.8%)*, announces Tuesday after market close. BBBY (32/105/20.2%), announcement Thursday before market open. Pictured here is an MU October 16th 44/55 short strangle, paying 1.52 as of Friday's close (.76 at 50% max). For those of a defined risk bent: the MU October 16th 40/45/52.5/57.5 iron condor was paying 1.74 at the mid as of Friday's close, (.87 at 50% max). For BBBY, I'd probably go short straddle, skinny short strangle, or skinny iron condor with the October 16th 14/15 skinny short strangle paying 2.46 as of Friday's close (.62 at 25% max), and the October 16th 10/14/15/19 4-wide paying 2.02 (.51 at 25% max) with risk one to make one metrics. OPTIONS LIQUID EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED AND RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE NOVEMBER (56 DAY'S) AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: XOP (16/54/17.8%) GDX (22/54/17.0%) SLV (39/48/14.4%) EWZ (19/44/14.1%) GDX (21/43/14.1%) XLE (26/41/13.5%) SMH (24/40/11.3%) BROAD MARKET: QQQ (33/34/10.9%) IWM (31/34/10.6%) SPY (21/26/8.3%) EFA (22/24/7.1%) DIVIDEND GENERATORS FOR THE IRA SCREENED FOR THOSE WHERE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE: SLV (39/48/14.4%)** EWZ (19/44/14.1%) KRE (27/44/14.2%) XLE (26/41/13.5%) MUSINGS: With the major binary event of the year approaching (U.S. general elections), I'll be attempting to resist the urge to trade in the margin account and will flatten that completely running into the October monthly expiry. The intent was to wind that account up prior to year end, so now is as good a time as any. With retirement approaching, my medium to long-term focus will be turning to IRA trades in a cash secured environment, with the focus on exchange-traded-funds with dividends and the general go-to strategy being short put, acquisition, and covering, resorting to highly liquid single name only in the event that sector and broad market volatility totally dry up. I'll continue to grind on those broad market/exchange-traded fund trades through the election as long as volatility hangs in there, naturally keeping some powder dry in the event that a high volatility event presents itself. This basic approach has worked well over the years, and I see no particular reason to change it now, even though it has zero sexiness and can be slow going, particularly if you're not the patient type. My current stock positions are in SPY (covered call), TLT (covered call), IYR (covered call), and EFA (covered call). In addition, I've got short puts or short put ladders deployed in QQQ, IWM, SPY, SLV, EWZ, KRE, XLE, GLD, and HYG. Previously, I was hesitant to dump my stock positions or allow them to be called away due to their paying dividends, but may change my tune, particularly with SPY, where the dividend is a paltry 1.76% relative to what the 30-day 2 x expected move short put is paying currently. Naturally, what a given option will pay will depend on where the implied volatility is at the given moment, but here the 2 x expected move short put nearest 30 days is the October 26th 305, paying 2.60 or .86% ROC at max (10.32% annualized). The basic question is whether it's generally worth it to hang out in shares when you don't have to, even if you're getting a little extra something something if you've covered.*** Short puts, after all, make money regardless of whether the stock goes up or sideways and can even make money if the market goes down, assuming that your break even isn't broken; stock only makes money if it goes up. Short puts can be rolled to reduce cost basis further; once you're in stock, you're married to the position. I guess I'm trying to talk myself into allowing my shares to be called away ... . :-) * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank (i.e., where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage the October at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price. ** -- Neither SLV nor GLD pay a dividend. *** -- The 2 x expected move short call nearest 30 days is the October 26th 346, paying 1.56 or 18.72 annualized, which also far exceeds what you'll receive in SPY dividends on an annual basis (currently 5.681/share or $568.10 per year for a one lot).
NASDAQ:MU
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: COST, GDXJ/GDX, XOP, SLV, EWZA late "Week Ahead" post after a short road trip ... . EARNINGS: There aren't many options liquid underlying volatility contraction plays on tap this week. COST (35/38/6.8% (October)-10.1% (November) announces on Thursday after market close, but the volatility metrics aren't the greatest for a contraction play with 30-day at 38, the October monthly at expiry-specific 37.8%, and the November monthly at 34.8%. My general cut-off to pull the trigger on something is a 30-day greater than 50%, so I'm likely to pass on this one. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY GREATER THAN 35% AND RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING: TQQQ (42/103/33.7%) GDXJ (23/58/18.3%) XOP (17/55/17.8%) GDX (24/49/15.0%) SLV (45/48/15.2%) EWZ (20/48/15.1%) XLE (27/44/14.0%) SMH (25/40/12.2%) QQQ (36/37/11.6%) IWM (33/35/11.0%) Pictured here is a GDXJ November 20th 45/65 short strangle with the short options camped out at around the 20 delta that's paying 2.95 at the mid price. Although it's a little early for the November cycle (58 days until expiry) if like to keep things in that 45 day wheelhouse, this is the best bang for your buck as a function of stock price on the board, followed by XOP, GDX, and XLV. BROAD MARKET: QQQ (36/37/11.6%) IWM (33/35/11.0%) SPY (23/29/9.0%) EFA (23/24/7.5%) I've been engaging in programmatic 45 days until expiry, 16-delta short put selling in broad market in the highest 30-day implied instrument on the board. Here, it would be QQQ. However, there are only an October 30th (37 days) or a November 20th (58 days) expiry available, where the 16 delta strikes are paying 3.27 (the October 30th 235) and 4.22 (the November 20th 226). I've already got an October 30th short put hanging out there, so may just wait until next week when an early November weekly becomes available. IRA DIVIDEND-GENERATORS WITH 30-DAY GREATER THAN 35% AND RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING: SLV (45/48/15.2%) EWZ (20/48/15.1%) KRE (26/44/14.5%)
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
2