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Exaustion

Topside exhaustion at Psych level (Sell stop .73700)Today we reached a key level for this pair at .74000 for the second time from the .55000 low in March. Despite the dollars weakness AUD was not able to push through .74000 and was immediately rejected. A rejection from this point aims for .72200 for the first retest. .73710 is this pairs exhaustion point established from the .55000 low. Exhaustion points are marked just under key psychological levels as the momentum slows down before retesting the psychological level. Within this pair, the exhaustion point prepares holders to take their profit while preparing sellers to find a perfect entry point. Once a close out below this .73710 exhaustion level occurs sellers will pick up the volume creating momentum. To avoid a poor entry I am looking to place a sell stop at .73700 with TP 1 at at .72200. Consolidation will occur before pivoting or making a breach through .72200. Furthermore if .72200 is breach a retest of .70000 is likely. There was a lot of sentiment towards a breach through .74000 but due to the inability to push through today while the dollar has been at its weakest tells me otherwise. This is a scenario where technicalities such as strong psychological levels rule over clear fundamentals which in this case would be in AUD favor. Attached is my sell idea earlier in the weak where I marked my sell point at .73700 which remains my current sell stop. Consolidation at the exhaustion point occurred for several hours before reaching for .74000 which is a strong indication that trend sentiment was reversing. Please comment with thoughts and ideas. Thank you 🙏
Short
by Pika7993
EURUSD Probabilities For Pullback? Mid Term PossibilitiesTechnically exhausted bulls and tonight we have Businesses & Employment reports incoming from the US (ADP, ISM, and PMI) which are some key data representing the US economic outlook. Any unexpected numbers can spark volatility on this major pair. We had a 50bp emergency rate cut which was a surprise last night from FED and the aftermath outcome for the king was not good which we can know by watching over DXY around the floor (lately did rebound upward showing some correction hope). Exhausted euro bulls and oversold dollar make me think if tonight somehow the US passes a good outlook on those key reports then it can be a chance for the greenback for retracement over a shorter time horizon around 32.80% Fibonacci which line up with last time R1 of the W period pivot. I won't say that this major pair may have a full reversal at this point by knowing that FED has probabilities of 2 more rate cuts this year. It is the nature of the market to fall and rise back harder or rise and then fall back harder on the various factors of the underlying asset. Nothing goes to hell or heaven straight forward. Last night market players have pushed price further upward on this major pair after knowing FED surprise announcement which let me think psychologically and technically once at this point that there may not be more room left upward for this pair (overbought oscillators condition too). Even if the news doesn't favor the US tonight it has already priced in finely last night so possibilities can be just opposite creating a sell-off scenario (don't forget what happened with AUDUSD even after the cut by RBA last day). Even if reports end up being good for the US then also bear have some reason to push the price lower where market is already overbought for this major so that make some sense too. In both cases, it seems we may today have some pullback in this pair hypothetically talking.
Short
by jessi061
EURAUD Mid Term Sell Bias trade idea Australia’s strong economic ties with China too and we all know this virus named "Coronavirus" is actually not only affecting the people of china but whole financial markets around the world. Equities have fallen, bond rises and all the safe haven got a pump upward couple of days earlier. Risk currency like Aussie had trouble and safe heaven like yellow metal, the yen had the most benefit. It's been a while now we are seeing how far this minor pair has reached. Nothing is permanent and we are facing a temporary natural disaster which may somehow end soon or later (doctor gotta work fast for the antidotes jk :D). I assume if risk appetite gets better there are some possibilities that this exhausted bull will switch its direction lower. I know it's not a one hundred percent idea but at this point either the market of this minor pair is consolidating, range or a reversal is imminent but a strong bullish upward momentum isn't what I feel at this point (my own opinion). Technically we can see the price has hit the R3 of the weekly pivot and by seeing Fibonacci retracement it looks lucrative by seeing the good possible reward on the downside for this pair. This pair did pump higher more early morning just to know the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rates were dropped which let us know that the business sector wasn't too confident at the time. Aussie will have its inflation reports out tomorrow which if actual is better then forecast and previous could help our trade bais further and as we all know global risk sentiment getting positive with the rise of risk appetite is what we should take into consideration too. (Idea not guaranteed financial advice.) Comment your idea and plan too if any. Peace out!
Short
by jessi061
Tom Demark Sequential - T.D. Sequential Tom Demark Sequential - T.D. Sequential For the sake of not overloading you, I will cover the basics of the T.D. setup and a more advanced understanding of the T.D. countdown at a later time. This is very basic level understanding of the Tom Demark Sequential, once I have the second portion finished in a few days I will do another to cover trading strategies with the T.D. 1. Introduction 2. Terminology 3. Example 4. Conclusion 1. Introduction The Tom Demark sequential is a great tool used by many traders. However, it is a complex indicator to trade with that uses simple calculations. The T.D. is an exhaustion cycle indicator that identifies trend reversal using exhaustion points numbered 1-9 with 9 being the potential exhaustion point and reversal of a trend. The Tom Demark Sequential consists of two components. T.D. Setup is the first one and it is a prerequisite for the T.D. Countdown – the second component. T.D. Setup compares the current close with the corresponding close four bars earlier. There must be nine consecutive closes higher/lower than the close four bars earlier. The Tom Demark Sequential can be found in TradingView by searching within indicators like so: imgur.com 2. Terminology Bearish Price Flip - occurs when the market records a Close greater than the Close four bars earlier, immediately followed by a Close less than the Close four bars earlier. Bullish Price Flip - occurs when the market records a Close less than the Close four bars before, immediately followed by a Close greater than the close four bars earlier. T.D. Buy Setup - bearish price flip, which indicates a switch from positive to negative momentum. - After a bearish price flip, there must be nine consecutive closes, each one less than the corresponding close four bars earlier. - Cancellation - If at any point, a bar closes higher than the close four bars earlier the setup is canceled and we are waiting for another price flip - Setup perfection – the low of bars 8 or 9 should be lower than the low of bar 6 and bar 7 (if not satisfied, expect new low/retest of the low). T.D. Sell Setup - prerequisite is a bullish price flip, which indicates a switch from negative to positive momentum. - After a bullish price flip, there must be nine consecutive closes, each one higher than the corresponding close four bars earlier. - Cancellation - If at any point a bar closes lower than the Close four bars earlier, the setup is canceled and we are waiting for another price flip - Setup perfection – the high of bars 8 or 9 should be greater than the high of bar 6 and bar 7 (if not satisfied, expect new high/retest of the high). 3. Example The chart above is Bitcoin on a 6 hour time frame with Heikin-Ashi candles (I will explain why in a later post). The T.D. is far more accurate on higher time frames. It can be used on lower time frames for entry and exits. However, I have found that precise entry and exit targets are best found with other indicators. I typically see the most accuracy with the T.D. on a 4 hour time frame or higher. Noted on the chart is several Buy/Sell setups in addition to failed setups. The reason I am using such a poor example of the T.D. is I want to impress upon you the dangers of using only one indicator when making decisions. Not every indicator is 100% accurate. As good and intelligent practice, you should always use the T.D. with additional data.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Nick_Core
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