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USDCAD, price breaking above resistance, +100 pips buy tradePlease Support this Idea with LIKE if it is Useful.... USDCAD price is attempting to break above resistance structure and also above descending trendline, if price manages to break above resistance cluster and holds above the structure, I expect the price to move higher. Push LIKE & SUPPORT the Idea... *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions
Long
by Stargazer_fx
3
BITCOIN, Bulls break above long term resistance, what next??Please Support this Idea with LIKE if it is Useful.... BITCOIN price made a strong break above long term resistance, and after forming bullish H&S pattern price made breakout and retest of the neckline and price started to grow, after price makes a retest of the structure and holds above the structure, I expect the price to move higher. Push LIKE & SUPPORT the Idea... *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Stargazer_fx
35
Trend Continuation Candlesticks PatternsTrend Continuation Candlesticks Patterns There are countless candlestick patterns that traders can use to identify areas of interest on a chart. These can be used for day trading, swing trading, and even longer-term position trading. Rising three methods This pattern occurs in an uptrend, where three consecutive red candles with small bodies are attended by the continuation of the uptrend. Ideally, the red candles shouldn’t breach the area of the previous candlestick. The continuation is confirmed with a green candle with a large body, symbolizing that bulls are back in control of the trend’s direction. Falling three methods The inverse of rising three methods, indicating the continuation of a downtrend instead. It’s relevant to note that candlestick patterns aren’t fundamentally a buy or sell signal by themselves. They are rather a way to look at market structure and a potential indication of upcoming opportunities. My dear friends, the sooner this publication gets 300 likes, the earlier I will make the next education post about other candlesticks patterns. Best regards EXCAVO
Education
by EXCAVO
11
EURUSD moving in an ascending channel, Buy analysisPlease Support this Idea with LIKE if it is Useful.... EURUSD price is moving in an ascending channel, after reaching the lower trendline of the channel if price holds above the structure , I expect the price to move higher Push LIKE & SUPPORT the Idea... *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions
Long
by Stargazer_fx
2
21.10.2020 - Bitcoin dominance (BTC)Hi Traders! Why does Bitcoin grow and other altcoins not? Why don't small altcoins grow against Bitcoin despite the growth of Bitcoin? Find out more in today's analysis. Today we analyze the dominance of Bitcoin, which is absolutely key for traders. What is it actually telling us? Currently, Bitcoin dominance is at 61.71%, which means that up to 61.71% of all money in cryptocurrencies is in Bitcoin. The rest is allocated in other cryptocurrencies. It is, therefore, logical that if the dominance increases from the current 61% to 70%, for example, then the money is transferred from altcoins to Bitcoin (another option would be the influx of new money into alts, which is not currently happening). Conversely, if dominance declines, money is shifting more from Bitcoin to altcoins. Let's look at the chart. As we can see in the summer the dominance decreased. If we mention the summer months, this is exactly what caused the huge pumps and growth in the DeFi sector, for example. Likewise, as the market grew, so did altcoins. In recent weeks, the situation has been the opposite. Bitcoin increases and altcoins stagnate or decrease. However, technical analysis can also be applied to this chart, and this graph is the absolute key to trading altcoins. There is a need to "catch" cycles when dominance decreases, as this is the period when altcoins are stronger and grow. Currently, we have reached a very strong resistance, on which the trendline of the channel, MA21, and point resistance is at the level of 62.87%. RSI still holds the trendline. So we expect a minor rejection soon. After a few weeks of hard trading, better times could come. May the crypto be with you!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by DolleroTechnology
2
The Narrative for Passive Index Investing - DeFi vs CryptoIn today's post I’m going to discuss passive index investing and list out why I see it as one of the best ways to gain exposure to sectors within crypto as well as crypto as an emerging asset class. Active investing requires a hands-on-approach, typically executed by a portfolio manager of a fund, although, within the cryptocurrency space, it's more likely an individual. To execute this strategy, you have to be confident in each position you hold, maintaining a deep understanding of each investment and the overall sectors you have exposure to. For those managers that can accomplish this, the rewards are lucrative with returns that outpace the benchmark indices. However, it is often difficult to maintain these excess returns over a long period of time due to several factors. The first is assets under management. As successful managers attract additional capital their funds can become too large to deploy into the existing strategies that brought them excess returns. As a result, fund managers are forced into more liquid underlyings which tend to make up large parts of the benchmark index and thus the funds performance converges with that of the index. The second factor is the fund manager. Successful fund managers are sought after and often poached away by other funds offering illustrious compensation packages. Naturally, due to the scarcity of such a skillset the funds performance typically suffers, losing its excess returns, after the departure of a successful manager. The third factor is the use of leverage. Leverage can exacerbate returns in good times but can equally destroy value in bad times. This creates a larger variance of returns, increasing the portfolio’s standard deviation and reducing the risk adjusted return. This thesis has largely proven to be true over recent history with actively managed large cap funds continuing to lag behind the S&P 500 for the ninth consecutive year. In fact, the longer the time horizon, the fewer funds that have outperformed the S&P 500, with only 8% of large cap actively managed funds beating the index. Passive investing involves a longer-term investment strategy that looks to increase returns by minimizing active buying and selling on a day-to-day basis. In traditional finance, passive investing is very popular with 18% of total equity exposure represented by index-type products. Passive index investing solves the problem of not knowing which investments are the right ones to choose. This is particularly useful when viewed through the lens of decentralized finance ‘Defi’ or any other crypto asset sector. Chiefly, this is due to the rate of innovation that exists in the cryptocurrency landscape. For example, the recent Defi sector expansion brought a slurry of projects to the market of varying quality. It would require a full time commitment to ensure investment into only the best projects whilst avoiding the many scams and contract vulnerabilities. Continuing with the Defi example, a non-passive approach would have to consider what the top Defi projects will be in 5 years time? Will they be the same projects I see today or will new entrants come to the market? Ultimately, no one knows and through passive investing institutional or individual investors don't really need to care either. With an index tracking the 'Top 10 Defi Projects' by market cap will guarantee ownership of those top 10 projects in 5 years time; represented with one single token which can be redeemed or exchanged on the open market. If you, the investor, have a long-term view on decentralized exchanges or believe crypto-insurance will play a bigger role within the cryptocurrency space as it continually grows. Then investing into an index product might be the most efficient method of gaining exposure. It provides easy access to sectors without having to purchase all underlying assets individually, and offers exposure to an asset class without requiring deep technical knowledge. At this early stage in the development, decentralized indexes will disrupt traditional finance. Building this upon a Web 3.0 infrastructure. Ultimately, index technology hasn't changed since its inception in 1975. If you look at traditional crypto exchanges, they suffer from having to list all the individual assets, with a crypto index maintained by the exchange, they wouldn’t have to go through this laborious procedure. I believe as time goes on, this will be a growing trend. In summary, for investors with long time horizons, seeking access to a sector or asset class, an index remains the best vehicle for obtaining, expressing, and managing that outlook. Someone I’m following in the space is PhutureDAO, they provide a range of benchmark, programmatic indexes with real underlying assets, auto rebalancing functionality, and a non-custodial architecture. Essentially, the closest comparison would be a user first, Vanguard type Index provider, built upon a Web 3.0 foundation. Open for all to build upon. Through their platform they provide the facilities for investing into a range of benchmark indexes. More importantly, they empower you to create your own index that others can invest into; allowing for the creation and dissemination of your own investment strategy. With this model, indices will always iterate with the fast pace of innovation in the cryptocurrency ecosystem ensuring a plethora of investment vehicles. Whilst, index creators can benefit from investor interest in the latest cryptocurrency segments/sectors. Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
5
AUDUSD forming a bullish wedge structure, growth expectedPlease Support this Idea with LIKE if it is Useful.... AUDUSD price is forming a bullish wedge shaped structure, If price manages to break above the wedge shaped structure and hold above the structure , I expect the price to move higher Push LIKE & SUPPORT the Idea... *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions
Long
by Stargazer_fx
6
EURGBP, wait for breakout & Retest of trendline to BUY..Please Support this Idea with LIKE if it is Useful.... EURGBP price is following a descending trendline ,If price makes a breakout of the trendline then after a pullback If price continue to hold above the structure, I expect the price to move higher Push LIKE & SUPPORT the Idea... *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions
Long
by Stargazer_fx
2
EURUSD, price close to support structure, Buy analysisPlease Support this Idea with LIKE if it is Useful.... EURUSD price is close to support structure, If price holds above the support and breaks above the narrowing structure then after a pullback If price gives any bullish signal ,I expect the price to grow. Push LIKE & SUPPORT the Idea... *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions
Long
by Stargazer_fx
5
BTCUSD, price moving in an ascending channel, where to BUY??Please Support this Idea with LIKE if it is Useful.... BTCUSD price is moving in an ascending channel, price rejected after touching the upper trendline of the channel & price bounced everytime after touching the lower trendline of the channel, after reaching the lower trendline If price continue to hold above the structure and starts to grow from the channel's trendline, I expect the price to move higher For Entry: Wait for the formation of Bullish Candlestick Pattern to close on 4hr timeframe for confirmation to Buy.. Trade it with proper Sl.. In case price breaks below the level then we can look for sell opportunity.. Push LIKE & SUPPORT the Idea... *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Stargazer_fx
18
What is the Wyckoff Method? #2 Distribution SchematicDistribution Schematic In essence, the Distribution Schematics works in the opposite way of the Accumulation, but with slightly different terminology. Wyckoff method distribution schematic Phase A The first phase occurs when an established uptrend starts to slow down due to decreasing demand. The Preliminary Supply (PSY) suggests that the selling force is showing up, although still not strong enough to stop the upward movement. The Buying Climax (BC) is then formed by an intense buying activity. This is usually caused by inexperienced traders that buy out of emotions. Next, the strong move up causes an Automatic Reaction (AR), as the excessive demand is absorbed by the market makers. In other words, the Composite Man starts distributing his holdings to the late buyers. The Secondary Test (ST) occurs when the market revisits the BC region, often forming a lower high. Phase B Phase B of a Distribution acts as the consolidation zone (Cause) that precedes a downtrend (Effect). During this phase, the Composite Man gradually sells his assets, absorbing and weakening market demand. Usually, the upper and lower bands of the trading range are tested multiple times, which may include short-term bear and bull traps. Sometimes, the market will move above the resistance level created by the BC, resulting in an ST that can also be called an Upthrust (UT). Phase C In some cases, the market will present one last bull trap after the consolidation period. It’s called UTAD or Upthrust After Distribution. It is, basically, the opposite of an Accumulation Spring. Phase D The Phase D of a Distribution is pretty much a mirror image of the Accumulation one. It usually has a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) in the middle of the range, creating a lower high. From this point, new LPSYs is created - either around or below the support zone. An evident Sign of Weakness (SOW) appears when the market breaks below the support lines. Phase E The last stage of a Distribution marks the beginning of a downtrend, with an evident break below the trading range, caused by a strong dominance of supply over demand. Outcome: Naturally, the market doesn’t always follow these models accurately. In practice, the Accumulation and Distribution Schematics can occur in varying ways. There may be delays in some phases. Still, Wyckoff’s work offers a wide range of reliable techniques, which are based on his many theories and principles. It is certainly much more than a TA indicator. In essence, the Wyckoff Method allows investors to make more logical decisions rather than acting out of emotions. The extensive work of Wyckoff provides traders and investors a series of tools for reducing risks and increasing their chances of success. Still, there is no foolproof technique when it comes to investing. One should always be wary of the risks. Best regards EXCAVO
BEducation
by EXCAVO
18
What is the Wyckoff Method? Accumulation schematic #1 Wyckoff Event and Phases The Wyckoff Method was developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 1930s. It consists of a series of principles and strategies initially designed for traders and investors. Wyckoff dedicated a significant part of his life teaching, and his work impacts much of modern technical analysis (TA). While the Wyckoff Method was originally focused on stocks, it is now applied to all sorts of financial markets. The three laws of Wyckoff The Law of Supply and Demand The first law states that prices rise when demand is greater than supply, and drop when the opposite is true. This is one of the most basic principles of financial markets and is certainly not exclusive to Wyckoff’s work. We may represent the first law with three simple equations: Demand > Supply = Price rises Demand < Supply = Price drops Demand = Supply = No significant price change (low volatility) In other words, the first Wyckoff law suggests that an excess of demand over supply causes prices to go up because more people are buying than selling. But, in a situation where there is more selling than buying, the supply exceeds demand, causing the price to drop. Many investors who follow the Wyckoff Method compare price action and volume bars as a way to better visualize the relation between supply and demand. This often provides insights into the next market movements. The Law of Cause and Effect The second law states that the differences between supply and demand are not random. Instead, they come after periods of preparation, as a result of specific events. In Wyckoff's terms, a period of accumulation (cause) eventually leads to an uptrend (effect). In contrast, a period of distribution (cause) eventually results in a downtrend (effect). Wyckoff applied a unique charting technique to estimate the potential effects of a cause. In other terms, he created methods of defining trading targets based on the periods of accumulation and distribution. This allowed him to estimate the probable extension of a market trend after breaking out of a consolidation zone or trading range (TR). The Law of Effort vs. Result The third Wyckoff law states that the changes in an asset’s price are a result of an effort, which is represented by the trading volume. If the price action is in harmony with the volume, there is a good chance the trend will continue. But, if the volume and price diverge significantly, the market trend is likely to stop or change direction. For instance, imagine that the Bitcoin market starts to consolidate with a very high volume after a long bearish trend. The high volume indicates a big effort, but the sideways movement (low volatility) suggests a small result. So, there is a lot of Bitcoins changing hands, but no more significant price drops. Such a situation could indicate that the downtrend may be over, and a reversal is near. Wyckoff’s Schematics The Accumulation and Distribution Schematics are likely the most popular part of Wyckoff’s work - at least within the cryptocurrency community. These models break down the Accumulation and Distribution phases into smaller sections. The sections are divided into five Phases (A to E), along with multiple Wyckoff Events, which are briefly described below. Accumulation Schematic Wyckoff method accumulation schematic Phase A The selling force decreases, and the downtrend starts to slow down. This phase is usually marked by an increase in trading volume. The Preliminary Support (PS) indicates that some buyers are showing up, but still not enough to stop the downward move. The Selling Climax (SC) is formed by an intense selling activity as investors capitulate. This is often a point of high volatility, where panic selling creates big candlesticks and wicks. The strong drop quickly reverts into a bounce or Automatic Rally (AR), as the excess supply is absorbed by the buyers. In general, the trading range (TR) of an Accumulation Schematic is defined by the space between the SC low and the AR high. As the name suggests, the Secondary Test (ST) happens when the market drops near the SC region, testing whether the downtrend is really over or not. At this point, the trading volume and market volatility tend to be lower. While the ST often forms a higher low in relation to the SC, that may not always be the case. Phase B Based on Wyckoff’s Law of Cause and Effect, Phase B may be seen as the Cause that leads to an Effect. Essentially, Phase B is the consolidation stage, in which the Composite Man accumulates the highest number of assets. During this stage, the market tends to test both resistance and support levels of the trading range. There may be numerous Secondary Tests (ST) during Phase B. In some cases, they may produce higher highs (bull traps) and lower lows (bear traps) in relation to the SC and AR of Phase A. Phase C A typical Accumulation Phase C contains what is called a Spring. It often acts as the last bear trap before the market starts making higher lows. During Phase C, the Composite Man ensures that there is little supply left in the market, i.e., the ones that were to sell already did. The Spring often breaks the support levels to stop out traders and mislead investors. We may describe it as a final attempt to buy shares at a lower price before the uptrend starts. The bear trap induces retail investors to give up their holdings. In some cases, however, the support levels manage to hold, and the Spring simply does not occur. In other words, there may be Accumulation Schematics that present all other elements but not the Spring. Still, the overall scheme continues to be valid. Phase D Phase D represents the transition between Cause and Effect. It stands between the Accumulation zone (Phase C) and the breakout of the trading range (Phase E). Typically, Phase D shows a significant increase in trading volume and volatility. It usually has a Last Point Support (LPS), making a higher low before the market moves higher. The LPS often precedes a breakout of the resistance levels, which in turn creates higher highs. This indicates Signs of Strength (SOS), as previous resistances become brand new supports. Despite the somewhat confusing terminology, there may be more than one LPS during Phase D. They often have increased trading volume while testing the new support lines. In some cases, the price may create a small consolidation zone before effectively breaking the bigger trading range and moving to Phase E. Phase E Phase E is the last stage of an Accumulation Schematic. It is marked by an evident breakout of the trading range, caused by increased market demand. This is when the trading range is effectively broken, and the uptrend starts. Best regards EXCAVO
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by EXCAVO
52
AUDNZD, broke descending trendline and resistance, buy setup...Please Support this Idea with LIKE if it is Useful.... AUDNZD price is broke above support/resistance structure and also broke descending trendline, If price continue to hold above the structure, I expect the price to move higher For Entry: Wait for the formation of Bullish Candlestick Pattern to close on 4hr timeframe for confirmation to Buy.. Trade it with proper Sl.. In case price breaks below the level then we can look for sell opportunity.. Push LIKE & SUPPORT the Idea... *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions
Long
by Stargazer_fx
8
Stocks Up, VIX Up – How Can That Be?Markets love simple narratives. One of the simplest is that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is the market’s fear gauge. If you think of VIX in those terms you would expect to see VIX fall when the market rises. It seems logical, right? If markets are going up, then investors are clearly less fearful, so the “fear gauge” should fall. While that is often the case, it is hardly a necessity. And when you see the opposite, there is usually a good reason. In this case, earnings and the election are the reason. For starters, it is important to understand that VIX is NOT the market’s fear gauge. The VIX Index is calculated by the CBOE, and it is crucial to consider their definition for that product: “The VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500® Index (SPXSM) call and put options.” (Source: www.cboe.com) Do you see the word “fear” mentioned in that description? No. Volatility is a mathematical construct, which I described in greater detail here. To be fair, VIX does tend to rise when markets decline and fall when markets rise. You may have heard the old adage, “markets take the stairs to the attic and the elevator to the basement.” Rising markets tend to grind higher and fewer investors feel the need to hedge with options. On the other hand, falling markets tend to be punctuated by sharp drops and investors belatedly remember that options can provide the protection that they may otherwise lack. A steadily rising market tends to be accompanied by a falling VIX, especially if investors perceive calm markets ahead. Conversely, a falling market tends to see spikes in that index as investors clamor for hedges. Patterns like that gave rise to the notion that VIX is the market’s fear gauge. Yet sometimes markets are caught in a pattern of rapid movement. On a morning like today, with SPX leaping 1.5%, the rise is hardly part of a quiet grind higher. Using the Rule of 16, that would translate to a 24% annualized volatility – not far below today’s 28 VIX level. It is a sharp reaction to the seemingly paradoxical notions that: The President is doing better after his initial COVID-19 diagnosis His illness improves the likelihood for another round of fiscal stimulus Investors are growing more comfortable with the potential for a “blue wave” electoral result where Democrats regain control of the White House and Senate. Yet markets seem to be bearing in mind that: The President’s recovery is far from fully assured The Senate is out of session until October 19th because of COVID and the House is out of session for re-election campaigns. A well-respected political consultant told me this weekend that he puts a 40% chance on a deal before Election Day The “blue wave” is likely to raise the prospects for fears of a capital gains hike next year. Stocks often stumble ahead of a capital gains hike as investors opt to take profits to avoid the tax. Remember also a key feature of VIX: It is designed to measure the market’s expectation of 30 day volatility. With the calendar turning to October, there is much for investors to digest over the coming 30 days. Yes, Election Day is now only 29 days away. But remember, stocks need to pass through earnings season between now and then. Those often prove to be periods when traders expect higher volatility, and the combination of the uncertain economic picture and the heavy concentration of mega-cap stocks at the tops of the major indices will do little to diminish those expectations. Hence, we see VIX higher despite the rise in today’s major equity indices. Yes it is convenient to think of VIX as the market’s fear gauge. But you now have the tools to understand why that is at best an incomplete understanding of that key index. Thank you Steve Sosnick Best regards EXCAVO
Editors' picks
TVC:VIX
by EXCAVO
43