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Excavo

The Wyckoff Method working or no?Below is the exact distribution chart I've written a lot about the Wakoff method, now we see one of the most standardized distributions, link www.tradingview.com but if you open your eyes it's distribution for some and accumulation for others - now almost every week there are reports that Black Rock has more and more bitcoins - maybe all the bitcoins are just being transferred from other smaller agents. But the bottom line remains the same big players are here and they are going to make a lot of money. The cryptocurrency market is still a small 1.5 TRL $. In my previous posts with fractals, I stayed with the opinion that we have a blue scenario - LINK But this is not about fractals But after analyzing the chart and seeing the wyckoff on it I couldn't help but share it with you - publishing this post doesn't mean I believe it, but the correction looks logical - the other question is how exactly it will happen with the renewal of local highs or not. Below I will show two distributions superimposed on the chart and they are slightly different Whatever charts they show you on TV or other social networks, follow your trading plan, I buy back altcoins after 30% correction and wait for the final impulsive upward movement without extra passengers. I am not going to short All these charts are for you to think, and maybe it's just another horizontal correction and after it the upward movement will continue until September 2025. Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
29
Bitcoin and Gold ETFHi. Happy new year everyone! As you can see on the chart bitcoin can partially repeat the gold fractal, at least a few analysis on the fractal coincide, pay attention to the blue fractal. I think yesterday's pumping of altcoin and decrease of bitcoin dominance will give an understanding that it is possible to enter the market, and the fomo will start in the next 10-14 days, after the crowd enters the market we will see the very correction in several movements. I will sell most of the altcoin portfolio and wait for the correction of 25-35% to increase the number of coins . Now it is difficult to say the target of the correction ( look at fibo) . Let's first wait for January 20-24. Best Regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
41
BITCOIN again rising upwards, if resistance breaks then $40KBTCUSD The price is firmly holding above the ascending trendline, and price is also above the support area around $36,500, and price again started rising upwards if the resistance around $38,000 breaks strongly then after correction/pullback price may attempt to hit $40,000 as the next target... Trade Wisely *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Stargazer_fx
10
Real World Assets - RWANEW GEM IN CRYPTO - Real World Assets? Real World Assets are assets from the real world that have been transferred to digital tokens for use in DeFi ecosystems. Tokenization can cover different types of assets, including physical assets like real estate and bonds and intangible assets like copyrights 📈 The RWA sector, which began its development in 2022, is gaining immense popularity, and today ranks 8th in the ranking in terms of total blocked assets with an amount of $2.384 billion (last year 130 million) Examples: ➖ Tokenized government bonds: This means that you can buy and sell government bonds on the blockchain and receive interest from them Lending platforms: You can get a loan in cryptocurrency using real assets as collateral or lend digital assets using real securities as collateral ➖ RWAs in real estate allow tokenizing the ownership of residential and commercial properties and generating rental income So, the RWA sector is another feature that brings crypto closer to the mass adoption List of all RWA projects below www.fxempire.com Best regards EXCAVO
Long
by EXCAVO
4
Bitcoin update 25.09.23Hi , the market has been very boring for the last few months, I think it's hard to disagree with that. During this time of course there has been manipulative pumping of small liquid altcoins. But still boring or am I getting old :) I see a further rapid decline in bitcoin price, in the next 2-3 weeks, liquidation of all those jaded crypto traders, and after that I expect a bull rally, that's what I said in previous posts. Let's put it this way, I have long ago made an analysis and came to the opinion that we will go below 16k is 20% probability based on analysis and reserch of all reversal patterns, on the history of other assets. 20% is the black swan (pandemic, nuclear strikes, etc.). Globally, we have been in a bull market since November 2022, every previous cycle had a sub-cycle with crowd disappointment, and we are approaching that state. Once there is that final down movement I will only look up and be bullish until September 2025. Regarding interest levels for me - I have shown all the interest levels on the chart with blue and yellow boxing I would also like to point out that the current distribution is very similar to the 2021 - 2022 distribution I don't want to mislead you, but as you can see bitcoin holders don't believe in the bitcoin crash and collapse scenario (it's stupid because it's a cow that gives milk and it would be very stupid to kill this cow) and are set for the long term, I'm one of them - in the cypto world bitcoin is gold. About ETFs - a lot of talk is it good or bad? it is 100% good in the long run for bitcoin price. ETFs are an opportunity for huge capital to enter cryptocurrency. While regulators are rejecting ETFs those very same financial companies are buying up real bitcoin. Everyone understands the prospects of this asset and the interest in it. Best regards EXCAVO
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
24
Bitcoin update 3.10.23In this chart I have shown the worst case scenario that could happen. As we have seen in the last few days, there are fewer traders on the market, bitcoin made +10% and only 77 million dollars liquidated - a very small figure. But as after this movement, trading volume started to increase, but newcomers and others started buying altcoins.... When reaching the resistance line of the channel, some longs will be closed, and some will even increase shorts, and stop losses will be placed above this channel, logically these stop losses should also be activated. The worst scenario is the one I have indicated with the red line. But I do not exclude that we can start to grow without the last capitulation. Best Regards EXCAVO
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
9
Bitcoin accumulation or distribution? update 19.07.23 Hello guys I think that many people over the last month technically see the Wyckoff distribution, I am not an exception and indeed it looks very similar, but we are now in an ascending channel The monthly range is 29500-31500, and this distribution could be a trivial liquidity achievement from below. And then a return to the rising channel. But if we want to see more extravagant liquidity withdrawal, we need to break the ascending channel, and the ideal point of frustration for market participants is to break this channel down and lock below it. In any case, after a one-month stretch, you will see volatility very soon On the other hand on larger timeframes we can interpret this whole 9 months has been an accumulation of wyckow and we are in the final stage of accumulation if this is true and I believe it is, then there are two scenarios that I want to share On the other hand on larger timeframes we can interpret this whole 9 months has been an accumulation of wyckow and we are in the final stage of accumulation if this is true and I believe it is, then there are two scenarios that I want to share 1. Looks just like in the book And if you add up the theory that the tuning distribution should be on the big crowd excitement, due to expectations about Bitcoin ETF, FTX, I wrote in this post Link It all looks logical,taking additional liquidity from below to break through the main liquidity above 32k after 9 months of accumulation. As for me, I accumulated in November-December 2022 and distributed already. I think you are seeing a lot of reports that a very large amount of bitcoins are going into Coinbase, Gemini, and others and as you correctly realize they will not give them to steaking haha they will sell them. The same situation with ETH I think you can see how thousands of ETH have started to move and some part of it is going to centralized exchanges. Best regards EXCAVO
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by EXCAVO
53
Motivation on the crypto marketI will tell you about a way of motivation in the crypto market, which I sometimes use myself. It is simple - I analyze large wallets. I have paid for several services to analyze wallets and the movement of crypto assets. I analyze the wallets. There are profitable trades when I made dozens. Of course, it's nice to calculate your profit, but you analyze other wallets on this project and see that someone invested 5 times more, respectively, and the income is much higher. This brings you back to the ground to work harder. It's nice to just track and see the transactions of the big whale wallets: what they own, what they buy/sell, where they farm/stalk. And when you look at their results, you get motivated to use the same volumes. I look at their wallet group when they have $500m-$3bn each. At that moment I realize that a correct and clear analysis of prospects can bring very high returns. Someone will call them lucky, but it can't be lucky all the time. It's already happening systematically. So there's a secret to analyzing it correctly? And they see prospects where no one else sees them yet? And when everyone discusses something promising and it becomes a hype - they are already selling at that moment. Large transactions and numbers motivate me a lot. Many top whales hide such deals, and only at the end they transfer the funds to their main wallets. But analyzing such deals after the fact motivates you and reminds you once again that big Xs are possible with the right analysis. And there is no need to worry that you missed out on some top project.In the crypto market, new opportunities are opening up all the time.To summarize, I wanted to remind you that I am not competing with anyone. Yes, I compete only with myself, but seeing someone else's success gives me a benchmark for achieving my own intermediate mini-goals, and I realize that the bar can be moved much higher. To make this post not only motivational, but practically useful I want to share tools: www.arkhamintelligence.com debank.com www.nansen.ai zerion.io Also I suggest sharing whale wallets or successful wallets in the comments. There's a good phrase: "If we look at the human race as a whole, those who are left alone in society or leave the tribe tend to die faster. Early on in human history, we learned that you need a group to survive. Usually those who stick together the most usually win over the others. Collective thinking helps us to do things more efficiently." Best regards EXCAVO
Long
by EXCAVO
7
Bitcoin 19.05.2023The last break we can interpret as reaching the liquidity zone (which means that there was a concentration of stop losses and other positions) is a book example, after such a liquidity selection we expect an upward movement. In this case we saw an impulse movement and a return to the range of 26800 -28900-31000. And now we are around 27k. Also we see liquidity zones from below, which we can reach both at the top ( red box) and at the bottom ( green box). What's the global picture right now, 5 months of growth, at the peak +90% of the bottom. In those 5 months we've seen a rush: on Chinese blockchains, LSD, Meme, BRC20, AND other with the last two attracting new participants who are just asking what to buy to get rich. On the logistical curve this is the last stage. Now most people are in the market with altcoins because they have more upside, but also more downside:) Some think we will go to take liquidity from above ( red boxes) but this crowd will start to fix their positions, in zero or near zero, so I do not see the point in the pump, so I am out of the market now, just watching and looking for an entry point to short. And I'm waiting to buy back the flash crash Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
12
Bitcoin update 28.03.2023Potentially we can reach liquidity zones from below to eliminate all stop losses of long trades that were opened in the yellow zone, after that a strong upward movement is possible. The vision is the same, in May - April we will see the local peak of this movement Technically, the market is doing very well. We trade the market 60% + of all money in stable coins Beware of overbought altcoins LSD (Liquid Staking Derivatives) the trend continues. Don't forget to control your greed, Protect your positions. Think are you over risked People write to me who are in an unstable psychological state from the fact that they missed most of the movements, there will still be opportunities. Contact a more experienced person. Plan your trades, trade your plans Best regrads EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
51
In September-November we will form the bottom of this correctionAll through 2022 I was saying that we would see the bottom in November 2022. Because of cycles I tried to explain not only from the side of cycles, but also from other sides why a fall is possible Warned that the bottom is near showed the month of November In November 2022 I said that it was the bottom and it doesn't matter what price you buy at 16-17k, you don't have to wait for 13k (only pigs who want to catch the bottom do this). I also said that the local peak will be in April-May 2023, after that the correction. In march 2023 I visually showed a local peak After that showed a more specific scenario I said publicly in 11 May that I was selling all crypto and looking for an entry point to short. I am now in a short and will hold it as long as possible. And the last thing, I think, is that we are already in correction and we will see the bottom of this correction in September-November. Visually, I showed my goals with red boxes And after the formation of the bottom I expect growth until October 2025 with the establishment of new highs, trading is not a sprint it is a marathon. Comment, give me some likes, I love you all Best regards EXCAVO
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by EXCAVO
46
Crypto Regulation is comingOne lawsuit recognizing that one of the crypto projects is an unregistered security is enough. And all those projects who did Token Sales - ICO, IDO, IEO and other, did fundraising and sold tokens to funds, did airdrops, token burning - this is all a big problem for crypto projects by the SEC(The United States Securities and Exchange Commission) Bitcoin and all bitcoin forks are commodities. TSX:XCH is a commodity And all the other projects DYOR doing their own research. Regulation is coming Best Regards EXCAVO
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
30
U.S. National Debt U.S. default A topic that has been stirring people's minds in recent months is the U.S. debt ceiling. The general public is asking the question: "Will the national debt ceiling be raised or will the U.S. default?" The national debt is the result of the government's financial borrowing to cover the budget deficit. And, as you might have guessed, these borrowings must be paid for. For the last ~100 years, the U.S. has existed on borrowed capital by placing Treasury bonds. And there is a purely nominal borrowing limit, which in fact America has raised 45 times in the last 40 years so that it can borrow more and more and more. And if they don't, the Treasury will no longer be able to issue debt securities and will only have to cover their expenses with cash balances from their balance sheet. Spoiler: no money to pay off your own debt 💡Logical conclusion. The national debt ceiling will be raised anyway, and all the current discussions have only political overtones and have nothing to do with the real economic model of the states. Consequently, no teeth-grinding default and collapse of the global financial system should be expected How will the increase in state debt affect the cryptocurrency market? -If you're interested, put + www.usdebtclock.org Best regards EXCAVO
FRED:GFDEBTNLong
by EXCAVO
29
Meme coinsIntroducing Meme-Coin Perspectives: Discovering the Art of Folly. Are you familiar with the ubiquitous X's on Pepe, Doge, Shiba, and the like? These symbols have permeated the world of meme-coins, capturing the attention of many. Now, let's delve into a captivating speculative concept known as the "Big Fool's Theory." Picture this: you knowingly acquire something seemingly worthless, fully aware that a bigger fool will emerge to purchase it at a higher price. In simpler terms, you anticipate someone eagerly buying an unnecessary wrapper at an exorbitant cost. What lies in store for those who embark on this venture? The allure stems from witnessing numerous individuals amassing fortunes out of thin air. As a result, a fiery blend of FOMO and curiosity engulfs the hearts of onlookers, compelling them to impulsively dive into the realm of memecoins. They yearn to emulate someone else's triumph or, perhaps, acquire a memecoin that has been resold countless times, now soaring at its zenith. Amusingly, some proponents extol the virtues of these whimsical tokens. When questioned about the benefits of such projects or their potential for growth, the answer is often a resounding, "someone else will buy." This prompts us to ponder: how does this fundamentally differ from a casino? In conclusion, the question remains: Can one truly profit by embracing the Big Fool's Theory, banking on the existence of a fool willing to pay a higher price? The resounding answer is yes. Yet, pause for a moment and contemplate: Could you, in turn, become that very fool? Best regards EXCAVO
Short
by EXCAVO
52
The history of the Flash Crashes in BTC, how to make money on itI'll start this post with what I've earned on the covid flash crash myself. This success was repeated in May 2021 but in other token. That's why I know a little about it. At the end I wrote why next flash crash is possible Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies often experience flash crashes when there are sharp and significant price declines for a short period of time. These events can be triggered by a variety of factors, including market panics, big selling, news, or regulatory changes. Here are a few known instances of flash crashes in bitcoin history : The flash crash On June 19, 2011, the price of bitcoin dropped from about $17.50 to just $0.01 on the low-volume Mt.Gox exchange. The reason for this flash crash was a huge sales order to sell 2,000 bitcoins at the market price. Flash Crash On April 10, 2013, the price of bitcoin plummeted from about $260 to $45 in a short period of time. This followed a series of crashes on the Mt.Gox exchange and a number of other factors that caused panic among traders. Flash crash On June 21, 2017, the price of bitcoin on some exchanges dropped from about $2,800 to $0.10 in just a few seconds. This was caused by a technical malfunction on the GDAX exchange that led to the execution of a bitcoin sell order at a low price. Flash Crash On September 17, 2019, the price of bitcoin on the Bitstamp exchange plummeted from about $10,000 to $8,100 in a short period of time. The reason for this flash crash was a large sale order for 5,000 bitcoins on the exchange. Flash crash in 2020: On March 12, 2020, the price of bitcoin dropped by about 50% in a few hours, falling from about $8,000 to $4,000. This flush crash was caused by market panic related to the global COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on financial markets. Flash crash in 2020: On May 10, 2020, the price of bitcoin dropped more than 10% in just a few minutes. This happened after bitcoin sales orders worth about $30 million were executed on the BitMEX exchange. Causes of Flash Crashes -Flash crashes, or sharp and brief drops in asset prices in financial markets, can be caused by a variety of reasons. Some of the main causes of flash crashes include: -Automated trading systems: The use of computer programs and algorithms to perform a large number of trades can lead to a situation where these systems start selling assets automatically in response to certain market conditions. This may lead to a spike in sales and a sharp drop in prices, resulting in a flash crash. - Market Liquidity: Lack of liquidity in the market, that is, the inability to quickly buy or sell assets without a significant change in their price, can contribute to the occurrence of flash crashes. When large numbers of investors are trying to sell assets at the same time and there are not enough buyers, prices may decline sharply. - Systemic Failures: Technical failures and errors in trading platforms or settlement systems may cause flash cracks. Incorrect orders or execution of trades, delays in transmitting information, or problems with transaction processing may create volatility in the market and provoke sharp drops in prices. - Market Emotions and Panic: Heightened nervousness, emotional reactions, and panic among investors can also contribute to flash crashes. If a significant number of investors start selling assets en masse due to fear and anxiety, it can cause a spike in sales and a sharp drop in prices. What were some inefficiencies in the market that could be exploited in the financial markets There are several instances in the financial markets where inefficiencies could be detected and exploited for profit. Some of these cases include: -Arbitrage between different markets: If assets are traded on different markets or exchanges at different prices, one could buy an asset at a lower price in one market and sell it at a higher price in another market, profiting from the difference in prices. This is known as arbitrage. -Mispricing Companies: Sometimes investors may mispriced companies' stocks, creating opportunities to buy undervalued stocks or sell overvalued stocks. Such valuation mismatches can create opportunities for profits. -Temporary Price Mismatches: Sometimes there are temporary asset price mismatches in financial markets caused by panic, emotion or unforeseen events. If an investor is able to identify such mismatches and take appropriate action, he or she may profit from their correction. Explore the last point Temporary price mismatches in financial markets occur when asset prices deviate from their fundamental value for a short period of time. This can be caused by various factors such as panic, traders' emotional reactions, unexpected news or errors in trading algorithms. Temporary price mismatches present opportunities for traders or investors to capitalize on the difference between the current price and the fundamental value of an asset. Some examples of timing mismatches in prices include: Inefficiency of crypto exchanges: There can be differences in asset prices on different trading platforms, especially during volatile market conditions. Traders can exploit these differences to buy an asset at a lower price on one platform and sell it at a higher price on another platform, making arbitrage profits. Use of Algorithmic Trading: Algorithmic trading systems can cause timing mismatches in prices. For example, if an algorithmic system triggers a large number of sell orders in a short period of time, it may cause the price of an asset to go down. Traders may try to take advantage of such situations to profit by entering buy positions when prices decrease due to algorithmic selling. This is due to the fact that players who want to make money on Funding/Countdown and their ideal market is a flat and when the market moves, they simply leave the market and wait for a less volatile market. This is why there is a liquidity crisis on some exchanges and there is a price overshoot. All signs of a flash crash, signaling as much as I can: 1.The exchanges also believed in the latest surge in trading volumes and are now going full steam ahead. 2.The crowd is sitting in coinlist and seals with potential profits. 3.The crowd is playing or holding memcoins. 4.Crowd sits in altcoins, which is "still cheap" and already near December lowes 5.No new steibles are released - no one from the outside is interested in crypto, those who wanted have already bought it 6. Bankfallls 7.FEDnow release 8.The subcycle in the global cycle I mentioned in other posts That's why I recommend to register at different exchanges, to study and test different trading terminals Best regards EXCAVO
BNC:BLXShort
by EXCAVO
23
Bitcoin update 16.03.2023Hi, the plan is still the same goals 28-32.5 But there's a little problem here, you see banks going bankrupt, I called it BankFalls, and on that sentiment inexperienced people are now trying to move into a deflationary instrument, bitcoin. We are in the last already close to the last stage of this mini cycle ( logistic curve) when people will scream that bitcoin is the only salvation in anticipation of a potential world crisis. In fact it is not. it will be very difficult to find an instrument that will not fall if a financial crisis happens, everything will fall, but something will recover faster Most likely when most people panic they will go into the 25-32 range. According to propagation theory, this will be the final stage of this mini-bull-run or sub-cycle. I would like us to reach the middle channel line and then go to 28-32.5 - then stay there for 2-3 weeks and then go down Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
15
Macroeconomics for Crypto.Why bitcoin does not go with the S&P?This is research is to figure out where and when to look for the bottom of bitcoin. More importantly when to get out of it if we have a bull run. This may be something new to you, but macroeconomics is crucial here. And this I will try to explain it. The main hypothesis is that the cryptocurrency market has become highly institutionalized, the guys from Wall Street came here. They don't know how to trade from the level, unfortunately, but they know how to do macro sentiment - and Bitcoin became part of their portfolios and now trades the same way as the stock market. Bitcoin has all but lost its independence when Wall Street the weekend trading volumes and volatility is very low almost nothing happens. In 2018 guys like Fidelity came into cryptocurrencies. In 2020 they invited their rich clients and it was a turning point, since then all major banks and funds have been sending their clients compilations with analytics on cryptocurrencies This is an example from UBS bank It's not what we're used to seeing in Tradinvgview or on Twitter, but it's nothing complicated My opinion is that, the connection between cryptocurrency and stock market will only increase, so I urge all traders and investors to pay attention to the way Wall Street analyses work. Their job is to constantly monitor the analysis of the two economic cycles: business cycle and stock market cycles This is a schematic representation, the cycles are unsynchronized. The stock market is a reflection and result of the expectations of traders as to what is happening or will happen in the business cycle Business cycle scheme Everything starts with a reduction in interest rates by the central banks or with an increase in government spending, loans and mortgages become cheaper, the housing sector grows first - houses are built, more resources and materials are spent, the economy comes to life. People buy homes, make repairs, buy appliances, furniture, buy cars, have children, pets. They multiply their consumption, buy a second TV in the living room, subscribe to netflix, go to barbershops and beauty salons - the manufacturing and service sectors grow, unemployment falls, household incomes and corporations grow, and prices rise with them. Consumption peaks - inflation becomes dangerous - the Central Bank raises interest rates - credit and mortgages become more expensive - the housing sector collapses followed by the manufacturing and service sectors, unemployment rises, household and corporate incomes fall, consumption slows, inflation slows down. Sometimes there is a recession, the central bank lowers interest rates - the cycle is closed 😀 This year, almost all central banks in developed emerging markets are raising interest rates. Fact - 50% of all macro analysis will come down to assessing the likelihood of interest rate increases or decreases. Obviously there is money, there is growth and vice versa there is no money, no growth. We're about here in the middle of the cycle, a global recession is likely ahead All this is necessary and important to understand in order to assess the prospects and dynamics of stock prices on the stock market. We are used to the fact that there are many companies whose shares are traded on the stock exchange, and the companies themselves are divided into sectors and industries for classification. The first to react to the expectation of economic recovery are the sectors of financial housing and transport and so on. The logic was described above - mortgage, Home, Car, Kids, TV, netflix subscription and barbershop, etc. Wall Street looks at the stock market a little differently, through factors, that is, properties of certain groups of stocks, for example: industry sectors are commonly divided into cyclical - these are goods services secondary necessities that are highly dependent on the business cycle and non-cyclical - that is, these are goods services primary necessities that are not so highly dependent on it. The first - will respond cyclical, the factors are hundreds, but I will tell you with the most important and understandable. Imagine we take all the stocks and sort them by properties, by volatility, by beta, by dividend yield, by business margins, by multiples and so on so by these factors the stocks are sorted into a whole group. The first factor I consider is the volatility factor aka beta imagine an index of unprofitable junk companies like Virgin Galactic and other meme stocks this will be the extreme manifestation of the beta factor and the riskiness of the idea in Ark innovation by Cathie Wood - it consists of just that. The Quality factor is dividends, blue chips, s&p 500 index, Dow Jones is about them. The Value factor is the value of perpetually undervalued companies with low multipliers, the core of the real economy, they also have their own index, Russell 2000 Growth factor - Growth stocks are companies with prospects of perpetual revenue growth Apple Tesla uber is them And the nasdaq 100 is their index The Size factor is about capitalization small, medium, large, huge The institutional manager's view on the composition of the portfolio is approximately as follows: there are two modes of money and no money. When all is well, money is worthless, cash is trash. The manager buys into his portfolio everything that has high risk and high profitability, high-risk assets: IPO, SMall Cap, venture capital, cryptocurrencies, etc. When the regime is like now, when money is expensive and everybody needs it, the riskiest part is sold first, and further down the chain the portfolio increases the share of cash and bonds from the shares. Here's how these factors look within the stock market cycle. High-risk cyclical small-cap stocks are the first to respond to rate cuts and economic recovery. Next come value stocks, then quality stocks, then growth stocks. Eventually the party ends for everyone and everything goes down, risk OFF mode kicks in. Finally, Bitcoin's connection to the stock market Next you will see the result of a manual correlation search with thousands of stocks of different factors and other asset classes. I will show just a few : the orange line is what we are comparing to, the blue line is the bitcoin scale logarithmic. correlation coefficient on the right - peak correlation and current correlation look only at the visual picture First s&p 500 index is a quality factor peak correlation 88 current 68. Large Cap, Quality, Low Beta For example Coca Cola - Correlation is negative. Nasdaq 100 factor Grow stock growth peaks correlation 86 current 72 is little is the Russell 2000 Value Factor Index And in it most of the small and mid-cap companies from the real economy cyclical sectors in the Peak correlation 93 now 79 The transport industry index in Peak is 95 current 82 Bank index 94 peaks 30 now If Bitcoin were a stock it would be an asset: Value, Cyclical, Small Cap, High Beta, High Risk asset. Stock - value, cyclical sector, small capitalization, high beta and high risk Its place in the cycle starts from where all cyclical industries like transportation, small capitalization companies with the value factor before the recession Here's what the dynamics of the various stocks look like depending on the macro regime actually this is the main chart look at top Bitcoin next comes the SP500 below the Russell 2000 index and the nasdaq 100 From the covid bottom After the rate cuts, everything went up - it's understandable high risk and loss assets rose the most. But of the indices, it was the Russell 2000 that showed the most growth February 2021 marked the vertical lines , inflation expectations hinted that things would be very bad and the entire high-risk segment of the portfolios began to close. the highbets and High Risk were the first to go under the knife. The Russell 2000 stayed basically the same as Bitcoin for a whole year, but it moved stronger. And the Nasdaq 100 and s&p 500 continued their movement. This January's response is the second vertical line turned risk OFF for all assets and the party is over. Bottom line Bitcoin doesn't go for the nasdaq it doesn't go for the s&p 500 goes with the Rassell 2000 index and high-risk assets as part of someone else's portfolios. So we have already seen a new bull run early and it will quickly start and quickly end we should try to be ready for it and not wait for miracles. I really want to remind you that bitcoin's bottom and peak is not a price or a date - it doesn't work that way. It is a period of macro regime change from risk on to risk off and back I have a plan for How to watch and how to act. Thank you very much for your attention. I wish you success in trading and learning the macro, I am sure you will find it very useful . I would also like to thank Anton Klevtsov for the information Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
47
RWA narrative Real-world assets, is heating up more and more. BlackRock CEO says RWAs will be a major usecase for crypto If you want to start exploring this niche, this sampling will help you a lot. Here you will find links to the Twitter accounts of the RWA projects highlighted in the panorama. Messari PRO recently released an interesting mini-report outlining how RWAs are invading the classic financial sector. Over the past few months, traditional funds and asset issuers have launched alternative asset tokenization programs via public crypto-networks. Recent asset releases have revived interest in real-world asset portability (RWA) onchain and opened up new revenue opportunities within decentralized finance (DeFi). Private equity firm Hamilton Lane has partnered with Securitize, a digital asset release platform, to tokenize part of its $2.1 billion flagship equity fund on the Polygon network. The fund requires a minimum investment of HKEX:20 ,000, well below the typical minimum buy-in (fund entry) of HKEX:5 million for private investors. Hamilton Lane is one of the largest private wealth managers, investing more than HKEX:37 billion in private markets in 2021. It manages SWB:824 billion in assets. Similarly, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced Project Guardian, a pilot program to tokenize bonds and deposits that can be used in various DeFi strategies. A bank participating in the program will be able to tokenize bonds and deposits that can be used in permitted liquidity pools. This capital can be lent in DeFi applications such as Aave and Compound to earn interest or as collateral to access credit. The pilot has attracted JPMorgan, DBS Bank and Marketnode as initial partners. Broader Context Since the first DeFi protocols began gaining momentum in 2020, they have been a driving force in attracting users and traders into the crypto space. DeFi experiments have enabled innovative financial applications such as decentralized automated market makers, stackablecoins, credit, insurance, swaps, synthetic assets, and derivatives. Total locked-in value (TVL) in DeFi applications, conventionally translated as the amount of capital under management, has skyrocketed to a peak of HKEX:248 billion in December 2021 as asset prices rise and new users are attracted. TVL is supported by liquidity mining programs in which protocols drive growth by temporarily increasing returns by offering users rewards in the form of native protocol tokens, such as Compound rewards lenders with COMP tokens. These returns have been volatile as token prices have fallen and overall interest in crypto has declined during the 2022 bear market. Historic USDC Stablecoin credit rates peaked in December 2020 at 18% for Aave and 8% for Compound. Those yields fell to 0.75% and 1.62% today, respectively. As the yield on one-year U.S. Treasuries is around 5%, investors have rushed into safe government securities. Treasury bond yields rose sharply as the Federal Reserve abandoned its zero interest rate policy, with the one-year bond up from the 0.3% yield in December 2021. As the risk-free interest rate in traditional finance has risen and DeFi yields have declined, investor participation in the latter has declined significantly in recent months, with TVL down more than 75% from its December 2021 high to HKEX:52 billion today. To attract new capital, DeFi protocols are beginning to use RWAs as a source of collateral or new investment opportunities, providing more stable returns for investors. Tokenization of real assets, such as real estate, commodities, private equity and credit, bonds and art, is a concept that has been quietly seeping in since 2018. RWAs take advantage of blockchain technology for the on-chain introduction of traditional assets. Key quote: "RWA tokenization offers tangible benefits, including lower minimum investment and increased access through shared ownership, increased trading of previously illiquid assets, increased transparency and security as blockchain records an unchanging record of transaction history, and automated ownership management and compliance." Key statistics: When the seven largest private credit blockchain-RWA protocols are combined, the historical loan value is $4.2 billion and active loans are HKEX:456 million. These protocols use DeFi to provide private loans to businesses and include Maple, Centrifuge, Goldfinch, Credix, TrueFi, Clearpool and Ribbon Lend. They offer an average APR of 12.63%. Outlook and Implications DeFi must offer higher returns than traditional investments to remain competitive and attract capital. DeFi applications such as Maple Finance, Goldfinch and Centrifuge pool cryptocurrency holders' funds and lend them to generate income through different strategies. Maple Finance is a platform for institutional borrowers to leverage the DeFi ecosystem for loans with insufficient collateral. Pool Delegates are loan officers who create and manage pools on the platform and find institutional borrowers by structuring terms for each loan pool. Lenders can then contribute crypto funds to the pools they want to support by lending their assets in exchange for income. To date, Maple has made cumulative loans of nearly $1.8 billion. Goldfinch is in the business of making loans to real businesses in emerging markets. Borrowers must be audited to determine their loan eligibility. Once approved, they can create pools and determine loan terms such as interest rate, loan amount, term and late fees. Lenders can grant capital to individual pools at their discretion and be the first to bear capital losses on impaired loans, thereby earning higher profits. Alternatively, liquidity providers can provide capital that is distributed to all pools of borrowers, earning lower returns with less risk of capital loss. While Maple and Goldfinch focus on private lending, Centrifuge allows more forms of real assets, such as real estate loans and freight accounts, to enter the DeFi ecosystem. On a Centrifuge trading platform called Tinlake, the creator converts a real asset into a non-transferable token (NFT) and includes the appropriate legal documentation. Asset pools are created using NFTs as collateral representing RWAs. Investors can then provide capital to pools that match their risk preferences. Real asset tokenization allows DeFi to enter some of the largest financial markets. Global real estate was valued at HKEX:327 trillion in 2020 and non-financial corporate debt at more than HKEX:87 trillion in 2022. These are colossal markets to which tokenization could bring increased liquidity and new investors. Decision Points When evaluating income opportunities, investors should examine the track record of existing DeFi-applications that use real assets. Have they defaulted? What is the underwriting and due diligence process and how do they manage risk? Underwriters that require borrowers to over-collateralize, have access to insurance, or have support mechanisms in place in the event of default may perform better over time. Notably, Maple Finance had a HKEX:36 million loan default in December 2022 in one of its loan pools. The borrower, Orthogonal Trading, suffered a loss because of the FTX collapse. In response, Maple launched version 2.0, which introduced a faster default and liquidation process for loans that failed. This points to the need for better risk parameters and sector diversification among borrowers for credit DeFi platforms with insufficient collateral, such as Maple. Instead of lending capital directly, investors can also bet on the success of DeFi-oriented RWAs by buying their own tokens. The prices of these tokens will correlate with the rest of the crypto market, but may show greater value for winning platforms. What's causing this boom? Many protocols that previously offered volatile yields have now reduced yields, and as the government offers more attractive yields through bonds, there is a shortage of new capital. By offering RWAs as a source of collateral, DeFi is opening its doors to the broader financial market of non-cryptocurrency natives. Having assets backed in part by RWAs also reduces risk for cryptocurrency lenders. We can expect more and more institutions to adopt tokenized RWAs ), as seen by JPMorgan executing its first real-time trade using tokenized yen and the Singapore dollar at Polygon in November. Hong Kong Central Bank is now offering tokenized green bonds, and other investment banks such as Credit Agricole CIB and SEB are collaborating to develop a platform for digital bonds. If you have read this far you are wondering what will happen to bitcoin, we are close to the dates I said in November 2022. I was talking about April-May correction. it is really going to happen, just like a rock we are unlikely to fall before we have to liquidate most of the short positions. so i expect a slight correction upwards 29200-30050 area Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
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XRPIn our EXCAVO Family Chat recently, I was asked what I thought about XRP. I've been asked this question for years. It is clear to many crypto people that XRP has little to do with blockchain, smells like a scam, ex-CEO who sold the token in huge amounts, a lot of conspiracy science, the Settlement with the SEC. But also with that, the company has a lot of partnerships almost every week. You can go in and look at their Twitter feed. And also we can't forget about ISO 20022, which is an international standard developed by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) that defines the format and content of messages used to exchange financial information between participants in the financial markets. It was designed to replace older message formats, such as SWIFT MT and Fedwire, and provide for more efficient and accurate exchange of financial information. I'm not a big fan of this project, but it's always on my radar. 'Cause I've already made good money on it a few times Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by EXCAVO
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