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U.S. National Debt U.S. default A topic that has been stirring people's minds in recent months is the U.S. debt ceiling. The general public is asking the question: "Will the national debt ceiling be raised or will the U.S. default?" The national debt is the result of the government's financial borrowing to cover the budget deficit. And, as you might have guessed, these borrowings must be paid for. For the last ~100 years, the U.S. has existed on borrowed capital by placing Treasury bonds. And there is a purely nominal borrowing limit, which in fact America has raised 45 times in the last 40 years so that it can borrow more and more and more. And if they don't, the Treasury will no longer be able to issue debt securities and will only have to cover their expenses with cash balances from their balance sheet. Spoiler: no money to pay off your own debt 💡Logical conclusion. The national debt ceiling will be raised anyway, and all the current discussions have only political overtones and have nothing to do with the real economic model of the states. Consequently, no teeth-grinding default and collapse of the global financial system should be expected How will the increase in state debt affect the cryptocurrency market? -If you're interested, put + www.usdebtclock.org Best regards EXCAVO
FRED:GFDEBTNLong
by EXCAVO
29
Meme coinsIntroducing Meme-Coin Perspectives: Discovering the Art of Folly. Are you familiar with the ubiquitous X's on Pepe, Doge, Shiba, and the like? These symbols have permeated the world of meme-coins, capturing the attention of many. Now, let's delve into a captivating speculative concept known as the "Big Fool's Theory." Picture this: you knowingly acquire something seemingly worthless, fully aware that a bigger fool will emerge to purchase it at a higher price. In simpler terms, you anticipate someone eagerly buying an unnecessary wrapper at an exorbitant cost. What lies in store for those who embark on this venture? The allure stems from witnessing numerous individuals amassing fortunes out of thin air. As a result, a fiery blend of FOMO and curiosity engulfs the hearts of onlookers, compelling them to impulsively dive into the realm of memecoins. They yearn to emulate someone else's triumph or, perhaps, acquire a memecoin that has been resold countless times, now soaring at its zenith. Amusingly, some proponents extol the virtues of these whimsical tokens. When questioned about the benefits of such projects or their potential for growth, the answer is often a resounding, "someone else will buy." This prompts us to ponder: how does this fundamentally differ from a casino? In conclusion, the question remains: Can one truly profit by embracing the Big Fool's Theory, banking on the existence of a fool willing to pay a higher price? The resounding answer is yes. Yet, pause for a moment and contemplate: Could you, in turn, become that very fool? Best regards EXCAVO
Editors' picks
Short
by EXCAVO
52
The history of the Flash Crashes in BTC, how to make money on itI'll start this post with what I've earned on the covid flash crash myself. This success was repeated in May 2021 but in other token. That's why I know a little about it. At the end I wrote why next flash crash is possible Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies often experience flash crashes when there are sharp and significant price declines for a short period of time. These events can be triggered by a variety of factors, including market panics, big selling, news, or regulatory changes. Here are a few known instances of flash crashes in bitcoin history : The flash crash On June 19, 2011, the price of bitcoin dropped from about $17.50 to just $0.01 on the low-volume Mt.Gox exchange. The reason for this flash crash was a huge sales order to sell 2,000 bitcoins at the market price. Flash Crash On April 10, 2013, the price of bitcoin plummeted from about $260 to $45 in a short period of time. This followed a series of crashes on the Mt.Gox exchange and a number of other factors that caused panic among traders. Flash crash On June 21, 2017, the price of bitcoin on some exchanges dropped from about $2,800 to $0.10 in just a few seconds. This was caused by a technical malfunction on the GDAX exchange that led to the execution of a bitcoin sell order at a low price. Flash Crash On September 17, 2019, the price of bitcoin on the Bitstamp exchange plummeted from about $10,000 to $8,100 in a short period of time. The reason for this flash crash was a large sale order for 5,000 bitcoins on the exchange. Flash crash in 2020: On March 12, 2020, the price of bitcoin dropped by about 50% in a few hours, falling from about $8,000 to $4,000. This flush crash was caused by market panic related to the global COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on financial markets. Flash crash in 2020: On May 10, 2020, the price of bitcoin dropped more than 10% in just a few minutes. This happened after bitcoin sales orders worth about $30 million were executed on the BitMEX exchange. Causes of Flash Crashes -Flash crashes, or sharp and brief drops in asset prices in financial markets, can be caused by a variety of reasons. Some of the main causes of flash crashes include: -Automated trading systems: The use of computer programs and algorithms to perform a large number of trades can lead to a situation where these systems start selling assets automatically in response to certain market conditions. This may lead to a spike in sales and a sharp drop in prices, resulting in a flash crash. - Market Liquidity: Lack of liquidity in the market, that is, the inability to quickly buy or sell assets without a significant change in their price, can contribute to the occurrence of flash crashes. When large numbers of investors are trying to sell assets at the same time and there are not enough buyers, prices may decline sharply. - Systemic Failures: Technical failures and errors in trading platforms or settlement systems may cause flash cracks. Incorrect orders or execution of trades, delays in transmitting information, or problems with transaction processing may create volatility in the market and provoke sharp drops in prices. - Market Emotions and Panic: Heightened nervousness, emotional reactions, and panic among investors can also contribute to flash crashes. If a significant number of investors start selling assets en masse due to fear and anxiety, it can cause a spike in sales and a sharp drop in prices. What were some inefficiencies in the market that could be exploited in the financial markets There are several instances in the financial markets where inefficiencies could be detected and exploited for profit. Some of these cases include: -Arbitrage between different markets: If assets are traded on different markets or exchanges at different prices, one could buy an asset at a lower price in one market and sell it at a higher price in another market, profiting from the difference in prices. This is known as arbitrage. -Mispricing Companies: Sometimes investors may mispriced companies' stocks, creating opportunities to buy undervalued stocks or sell overvalued stocks. Such valuation mismatches can create opportunities for profits. -Temporary Price Mismatches: Sometimes there are temporary asset price mismatches in financial markets caused by panic, emotion or unforeseen events. If an investor is able to identify such mismatches and take appropriate action, he or she may profit from their correction. Explore the last point Temporary price mismatches in financial markets occur when asset prices deviate from their fundamental value for a short period of time. This can be caused by various factors such as panic, traders' emotional reactions, unexpected news or errors in trading algorithms. Temporary price mismatches present opportunities for traders or investors to capitalize on the difference between the current price and the fundamental value of an asset. Some examples of timing mismatches in prices include: Inefficiency of crypto exchanges: There can be differences in asset prices on different trading platforms, especially during volatile market conditions. Traders can exploit these differences to buy an asset at a lower price on one platform and sell it at a higher price on another platform, making arbitrage profits. Use of Algorithmic Trading: Algorithmic trading systems can cause timing mismatches in prices. For example, if an algorithmic system triggers a large number of sell orders in a short period of time, it may cause the price of an asset to go down. Traders may try to take advantage of such situations to profit by entering buy positions when prices decrease due to algorithmic selling. This is due to the fact that players who want to make money on Funding/Countdown and their ideal market is a flat and when the market moves, they simply leave the market and wait for a less volatile market. This is why there is a liquidity crisis on some exchanges and there is a price overshoot. All signs of a flash crash, signaling as much as I can: 1.The exchanges also believed in the latest surge in trading volumes and are now going full steam ahead. 2.The crowd is sitting in coinlist and seals with potential profits. 3.The crowd is playing or holding memcoins. 4.Crowd sits in altcoins, which is "still cheap" and already near December lowes 5.No new steibles are released - no one from the outside is interested in crypto, those who wanted have already bought it 6. Bankfallls 7.FEDnow release 8.The subcycle in the global cycle I mentioned in other posts That's why I recommend to register at different exchanges, to study and test different trading terminals Best regards EXCAVO
BNC:BLXShort
by EXCAVO
23
Bitcoin update 16.03.2023Hi, the plan is still the same goals 28-32.5 But there's a little problem here, you see banks going bankrupt, I called it BankFalls, and on that sentiment inexperienced people are now trying to move into a deflationary instrument, bitcoin. We are in the last already close to the last stage of this mini cycle ( logistic curve) when people will scream that bitcoin is the only salvation in anticipation of a potential world crisis. In fact it is not. it will be very difficult to find an instrument that will not fall if a financial crisis happens, everything will fall, but something will recover faster Most likely when most people panic they will go into the 25-32 range. According to propagation theory, this will be the final stage of this mini-bull-run or sub-cycle. I would like us to reach the middle channel line and then go to 28-32.5 - then stay there for 2-3 weeks and then go down Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
15
Macroeconomics for Crypto.Why bitcoin does not go with the S&P?This is research is to figure out where and when to look for the bottom of bitcoin. More importantly when to get out of it if we have a bull run. This may be something new to you, but macroeconomics is crucial here. And this I will try to explain it. The main hypothesis is that the cryptocurrency market has become highly institutionalized, the guys from Wall Street came here. They don't know how to trade from the level, unfortunately, but they know how to do macro sentiment - and Bitcoin became part of their portfolios and now trades the same way as the stock market. Bitcoin has all but lost its independence when Wall Street the weekend trading volumes and volatility is very low almost nothing happens. In 2018 guys like Fidelity came into cryptocurrencies. In 2020 they invited their rich clients and it was a turning point, since then all major banks and funds have been sending their clients compilations with analytics on cryptocurrencies This is an example from UBS bank It's not what we're used to seeing in Tradinvgview or on Twitter, but it's nothing complicated My opinion is that, the connection between cryptocurrency and stock market will only increase, so I urge all traders and investors to pay attention to the way Wall Street analyses work. Their job is to constantly monitor the analysis of the two economic cycles: business cycle and stock market cycles This is a schematic representation, the cycles are unsynchronized. The stock market is a reflection and result of the expectations of traders as to what is happening or will happen in the business cycle Business cycle scheme Everything starts with a reduction in interest rates by the central banks or with an increase in government spending, loans and mortgages become cheaper, the housing sector grows first - houses are built, more resources and materials are spent, the economy comes to life. People buy homes, make repairs, buy appliances, furniture, buy cars, have children, pets. They multiply their consumption, buy a second TV in the living room, subscribe to netflix, go to barbershops and beauty salons - the manufacturing and service sectors grow, unemployment falls, household incomes and corporations grow, and prices rise with them. Consumption peaks - inflation becomes dangerous - the Central Bank raises interest rates - credit and mortgages become more expensive - the housing sector collapses followed by the manufacturing and service sectors, unemployment rises, household and corporate incomes fall, consumption slows, inflation slows down. Sometimes there is a recession, the central bank lowers interest rates - the cycle is closed 😀 This year, almost all central banks in developed emerging markets are raising interest rates. Fact - 50% of all macro analysis will come down to assessing the likelihood of interest rate increases or decreases. Obviously there is money, there is growth and vice versa there is no money, no growth. We're about here in the middle of the cycle, a global recession is likely ahead All this is necessary and important to understand in order to assess the prospects and dynamics of stock prices on the stock market. We are used to the fact that there are many companies whose shares are traded on the stock exchange, and the companies themselves are divided into sectors and industries for classification. The first to react to the expectation of economic recovery are the sectors of financial housing and transport and so on. The logic was described above - mortgage, Home, Car, Kids, TV, netflix subscription and barbershop, etc. Wall Street looks at the stock market a little differently, through factors, that is, properties of certain groups of stocks, for example: industry sectors are commonly divided into cyclical - these are goods services secondary necessities that are highly dependent on the business cycle and non-cyclical - that is, these are goods services primary necessities that are not so highly dependent on it. The first - will respond cyclical, the factors are hundreds, but I will tell you with the most important and understandable. Imagine we take all the stocks and sort them by properties, by volatility, by beta, by dividend yield, by business margins, by multiples and so on so by these factors the stocks are sorted into a whole group. The first factor I consider is the volatility factor aka beta imagine an index of unprofitable junk companies like Virgin Galactic and other meme stocks this will be the extreme manifestation of the beta factor and the riskiness of the idea in Ark innovation by Cathie Wood - it consists of just that. The Quality factor is dividends, blue chips, s&p 500 index, Dow Jones is about them. The Value factor is the value of perpetually undervalued companies with low multipliers, the core of the real economy, they also have their own index, Russell 2000 Growth factor - Growth stocks are companies with prospects of perpetual revenue growth Apple Tesla uber is them And the nasdaq 100 is their index The Size factor is about capitalization small, medium, large, huge The institutional manager's view on the composition of the portfolio is approximately as follows: there are two modes of money and no money. When all is well, money is worthless, cash is trash. The manager buys into his portfolio everything that has high risk and high profitability, high-risk assets: IPO, SMall Cap, venture capital, cryptocurrencies, etc. When the regime is like now, when money is expensive and everybody needs it, the riskiest part is sold first, and further down the chain the portfolio increases the share of cash and bonds from the shares. Here's how these factors look within the stock market cycle. High-risk cyclical small-cap stocks are the first to respond to rate cuts and economic recovery. Next come value stocks, then quality stocks, then growth stocks. Eventually the party ends for everyone and everything goes down, risk OFF mode kicks in. Finally, Bitcoin's connection to the stock market Next you will see the result of a manual correlation search with thousands of stocks of different factors and other asset classes. I will show just a few : the orange line is what we are comparing to, the blue line is the bitcoin scale logarithmic. correlation coefficient on the right - peak correlation and current correlation look only at the visual picture First s&p 500 index is a quality factor peak correlation 88 current 68. Large Cap, Quality, Low Beta For example Coca Cola - Correlation is negative. Nasdaq 100 factor Grow stock growth peaks correlation 86 current 72 is little is the Russell 2000 Value Factor Index And in it most of the small and mid-cap companies from the real economy cyclical sectors in the Peak correlation 93 now 79 The transport industry index in Peak is 95 current 82 Bank index 94 peaks 30 now If Bitcoin were a stock it would be an asset: Value, Cyclical, Small Cap, High Beta, High Risk asset. Stock - value, cyclical sector, small capitalization, high beta and high risk Its place in the cycle starts from where all cyclical industries like transportation, small capitalization companies with the value factor before the recession Here's what the dynamics of the various stocks look like depending on the macro regime actually this is the main chart look at top Bitcoin next comes the SP500 below the Russell 2000 index and the nasdaq 100 From the covid bottom After the rate cuts, everything went up - it's understandable high risk and loss assets rose the most. But of the indices, it was the Russell 2000 that showed the most growth February 2021 marked the vertical lines , inflation expectations hinted that things would be very bad and the entire high-risk segment of the portfolios began to close. the highbets and High Risk were the first to go under the knife. The Russell 2000 stayed basically the same as Bitcoin for a whole year, but it moved stronger. And the Nasdaq 100 and s&p 500 continued their movement. This January's response is the second vertical line turned risk OFF for all assets and the party is over. Bottom line Bitcoin doesn't go for the nasdaq it doesn't go for the s&p 500 goes with the Rassell 2000 index and high-risk assets as part of someone else's portfolios. So we have already seen a new bull run early and it will quickly start and quickly end we should try to be ready for it and not wait for miracles. I really want to remind you that bitcoin's bottom and peak is not a price or a date - it doesn't work that way. It is a period of macro regime change from risk on to risk off and back I have a plan for How to watch and how to act. Thank you very much for your attention. I wish you success in trading and learning the macro, I am sure you will find it very useful . I would also like to thank Anton Klevtsov for the information Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
47
RWA narrative Real-world assets, is heating up more and more. BlackRock CEO says RWAs will be a major usecase for crypto If you want to start exploring this niche, this sampling will help you a lot. Here you will find links to the Twitter accounts of the RWA projects highlighted in the panorama. Messari PRO recently released an interesting mini-report outlining how RWAs are invading the classic financial sector. Over the past few months, traditional funds and asset issuers have launched alternative asset tokenization programs via public crypto-networks. Recent asset releases have revived interest in real-world asset portability (RWA) onchain and opened up new revenue opportunities within decentralized finance (DeFi). Private equity firm Hamilton Lane has partnered with Securitize, a digital asset release platform, to tokenize part of its $2.1 billion flagship equity fund on the Polygon network. The fund requires a minimum investment of HKEX:20 ,000, well below the typical minimum buy-in (fund entry) of HKEX:5 million for private investors. Hamilton Lane is one of the largest private wealth managers, investing more than HKEX:37 billion in private markets in 2021. It manages SWB:824 billion in assets. Similarly, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced Project Guardian, a pilot program to tokenize bonds and deposits that can be used in various DeFi strategies. A bank participating in the program will be able to tokenize bonds and deposits that can be used in permitted liquidity pools. This capital can be lent in DeFi applications such as Aave and Compound to earn interest or as collateral to access credit. The pilot has attracted JPMorgan, DBS Bank and Marketnode as initial partners. Broader Context Since the first DeFi protocols began gaining momentum in 2020, they have been a driving force in attracting users and traders into the crypto space. DeFi experiments have enabled innovative financial applications such as decentralized automated market makers, stackablecoins, credit, insurance, swaps, synthetic assets, and derivatives. Total locked-in value (TVL) in DeFi applications, conventionally translated as the amount of capital under management, has skyrocketed to a peak of HKEX:248 billion in December 2021 as asset prices rise and new users are attracted. TVL is supported by liquidity mining programs in which protocols drive growth by temporarily increasing returns by offering users rewards in the form of native protocol tokens, such as Compound rewards lenders with COMP tokens. These returns have been volatile as token prices have fallen and overall interest in crypto has declined during the 2022 bear market. Historic USDC Stablecoin credit rates peaked in December 2020 at 18% for Aave and 8% for Compound. Those yields fell to 0.75% and 1.62% today, respectively. As the yield on one-year U.S. Treasuries is around 5%, investors have rushed into safe government securities. Treasury bond yields rose sharply as the Federal Reserve abandoned its zero interest rate policy, with the one-year bond up from the 0.3% yield in December 2021. As the risk-free interest rate in traditional finance has risen and DeFi yields have declined, investor participation in the latter has declined significantly in recent months, with TVL down more than 75% from its December 2021 high to HKEX:52 billion today. To attract new capital, DeFi protocols are beginning to use RWAs as a source of collateral or new investment opportunities, providing more stable returns for investors. Tokenization of real assets, such as real estate, commodities, private equity and credit, bonds and art, is a concept that has been quietly seeping in since 2018. RWAs take advantage of blockchain technology for the on-chain introduction of traditional assets. Key quote: "RWA tokenization offers tangible benefits, including lower minimum investment and increased access through shared ownership, increased trading of previously illiquid assets, increased transparency and security as blockchain records an unchanging record of transaction history, and automated ownership management and compliance." Key statistics: When the seven largest private credit blockchain-RWA protocols are combined, the historical loan value is $4.2 billion and active loans are HKEX:456 million. These protocols use DeFi to provide private loans to businesses and include Maple, Centrifuge, Goldfinch, Credix, TrueFi, Clearpool and Ribbon Lend. They offer an average APR of 12.63%. Outlook and Implications DeFi must offer higher returns than traditional investments to remain competitive and attract capital. DeFi applications such as Maple Finance, Goldfinch and Centrifuge pool cryptocurrency holders' funds and lend them to generate income through different strategies. Maple Finance is a platform for institutional borrowers to leverage the DeFi ecosystem for loans with insufficient collateral. Pool Delegates are loan officers who create and manage pools on the platform and find institutional borrowers by structuring terms for each loan pool. Lenders can then contribute crypto funds to the pools they want to support by lending their assets in exchange for income. To date, Maple has made cumulative loans of nearly $1.8 billion. Goldfinch is in the business of making loans to real businesses in emerging markets. Borrowers must be audited to determine their loan eligibility. Once approved, they can create pools and determine loan terms such as interest rate, loan amount, term and late fees. Lenders can grant capital to individual pools at their discretion and be the first to bear capital losses on impaired loans, thereby earning higher profits. Alternatively, liquidity providers can provide capital that is distributed to all pools of borrowers, earning lower returns with less risk of capital loss. While Maple and Goldfinch focus on private lending, Centrifuge allows more forms of real assets, such as real estate loans and freight accounts, to enter the DeFi ecosystem. On a Centrifuge trading platform called Tinlake, the creator converts a real asset into a non-transferable token (NFT) and includes the appropriate legal documentation. Asset pools are created using NFTs as collateral representing RWAs. Investors can then provide capital to pools that match their risk preferences. Real asset tokenization allows DeFi to enter some of the largest financial markets. Global real estate was valued at HKEX:327 trillion in 2020 and non-financial corporate debt at more than HKEX:87 trillion in 2022. These are colossal markets to which tokenization could bring increased liquidity and new investors. Decision Points When evaluating income opportunities, investors should examine the track record of existing DeFi-applications that use real assets. Have they defaulted? What is the underwriting and due diligence process and how do they manage risk? Underwriters that require borrowers to over-collateralize, have access to insurance, or have support mechanisms in place in the event of default may perform better over time. Notably, Maple Finance had a HKEX:36 million loan default in December 2022 in one of its loan pools. The borrower, Orthogonal Trading, suffered a loss because of the FTX collapse. In response, Maple launched version 2.0, which introduced a faster default and liquidation process for loans that failed. This points to the need for better risk parameters and sector diversification among borrowers for credit DeFi platforms with insufficient collateral, such as Maple. Instead of lending capital directly, investors can also bet on the success of DeFi-oriented RWAs by buying their own tokens. The prices of these tokens will correlate with the rest of the crypto market, but may show greater value for winning platforms. What's causing this boom? Many protocols that previously offered volatile yields have now reduced yields, and as the government offers more attractive yields through bonds, there is a shortage of new capital. By offering RWAs as a source of collateral, DeFi is opening its doors to the broader financial market of non-cryptocurrency natives. Having assets backed in part by RWAs also reduces risk for cryptocurrency lenders. We can expect more and more institutions to adopt tokenized RWAs ), as seen by JPMorgan executing its first real-time trade using tokenized yen and the Singapore dollar at Polygon in November. Hong Kong Central Bank is now offering tokenized green bonds, and other investment banks such as Credit Agricole CIB and SEB are collaborating to develop a platform for digital bonds. If you have read this far you are wondering what will happen to bitcoin, we are close to the dates I said in November 2022. I was talking about April-May correction. it is really going to happen, just like a rock we are unlikely to fall before we have to liquidate most of the short positions. so i expect a slight correction upwards 29200-30050 area Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
13
Bitcoin cycles + logistic curve = New bull run 2023-2025 I want to take a closer look at Bitcoin's price weekly logarithmic chart. Firstly, the chart examines growth and fall cycles, sometimes referred to as economic cycles or trade cycles. As you can see in my analysis, the growth cycle usually lasts approximately 150 weeks and is always longer than the fall cycle that spans out over the course of approximately 51-60 weeks. 150 bars on Bitcoin's weekly price chart, mark the beginning of the next pulse of the growth cycle that we are currently in. Everything in our life is based on cyclical patterns, especially when it comes to financial markets. If we analyze the rise and fall, we can conclude that the fall occurs faster than the growth of about three times. About logistic curve The logistic curve describes the speed of information dissemination among people. This graph describes the distribution of information in an environment. At first, an instrument is of little interest to anyone, investors are afraid of buying it, and its price fluctuates around r °. At this time, the initiated ("elite"), solely owning important information, begin to buy it, and the price slightly grows. Then the information is shared with a small circle of insiders, individual purchases grow into active buying, and the price of the instrument abruptly takes off. The general public is perplexed and can not understand what is the reason. In the third stage, news comes out and investors fearing not having time to "jump into the last car" buy up this tool that the "elite" and "proxies" are happy to sell to them at the maximum price (with joy, because at that time the "elite" there is already new information that the "elite" has taken into account, a new logistic curve in another instrument begins, or in the same, but with another sign, sales begin). The third stage is completed, when the whole society is aware of what happened, discuss everywhere, in the metro, all who could have already made There is no one to sell. The only thing that changes is the slope of the logistic curve - the information dissemination rate As a rule, 90% of bulls in high. And then the market unfolds and vice versa If you are constantly being told the same thing, then everybody knows it already. It is necessary to look not at the news If everyone around you screams the same thing, then you are in the upper zone The task of stepping back from the noise (this time it's useless overpriced NFT pictures) "WE WILL BE GOLD BEFORE THE PORN, WHILE GOLDEN IDEOLOGISTS WILL EXIST" Rothschild's "The same situation with cryptocurrencies, but this is only the beginning" Mr.EXCAVO Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EXCAVO
118
XRPIn our EXCAVO Family Chat recently, I was asked what I thought about XRP. I've been asked this question for years. It is clear to many crypto people that XRP has little to do with blockchain, smells like a scam, ex-CEO who sold the token in huge amounts, a lot of conspiracy science, the Settlement with the SEC. But also with that, the company has a lot of partnerships almost every week. You can go in and look at their Twitter feed. And also we can't forget about ISO 20022, which is an international standard developed by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) that defines the format and content of messages used to exchange financial information between participants in the financial markets. It was designed to replace older message formats, such as SWIFT MT and Fedwire, and provide for more efficient and accurate exchange of financial information. I'm not a big fan of this project, but it's always on my radar. 'Cause I've already made good money on it a few times Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by EXCAVO
11
DogeChain - ready for a doge raceWhat is DogeChain? DogeChain branded as Layer 2 for DogeCoin aims to supercharge $Doge by bringing crypto applications such as NFTs, games, and DeFi to the $Doge Community. This provides $Dogechain holders with more utility than simply holding their coins and waiting for them to increase in value. Even though it is described as a Layer 2 network, it isn’t truly the case as DogeCoin is built in a separate network on Polygon Edge, one of the most popular Ethereum layer 2. Rank #501 Marcetcap 32 Million I add to my public portfolio Best regards EXCAVO
Long
by EXCAVO
10
SP-500 - Banking crisisYou might have wondered about the past ~400 days in the financial market, especially in the US and Europe. Numerous commentaries and opinions have been shared across business-related media regarding interest rates, inflation, oil prices, war, etc. Trust me; you are not alone! Even the most distinguished economic Nobel prize winners have yet to learn why the economic indicators are still stable with so many factors in place. You might have heard of the recent banking failure in the US and Switzerland and that the banking system is so strong that nothing similar to 2008 would happen. But you have yet to hear that this time is expected to be worse!! Milad opinion: In the next 40 days, till the first week of May, we will see multiple failures in the financial system and corporates with weak management, and we will see the tight unemployment rate finally cracking up. But this will be just the beginning of many failures to come. To explain this more clearly, in the past 15 years, we have seen a secular bull market that has pomped the asset prices to a level never seen before, leading to an everything bubble. As a result, we have seen the tech sector and related assets grow to an unsustainable level, and housing prices soar. But this fast growth has come to an end, and in the next 40 days, we will see a downfall of significant indexes to at least 30% to begin with, resulting in a tough landing. The bases are as follows: The banking crisis of 1907 and 2008 indicate a massive downfall of 30% or more, starting shortly after banks' failures. As the Fed Chairman touched on in today's Q&A, the credit market is falling, starting from Credit Swiss, and will be tightened further. This could threaten the housing market, which is already unstable. The 1974, 2002, and 2008 crashes indicate that the final drop should occur here. The downfall for SP500 shows 30% to 41% drop in the next 40 days. A historical unemployment rate study indicates a sudden jump in the following two readings. The bond market inversion (10s-2s) and (10s-3months) indicate that the recession is very close. Analyst Sentiment Measure of earnings among US companies indicates an extreme reading is coming, which means a significant drop in earning expectations. Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) alarms for immediate recession. ISM New orders Leading also indicates an immediate recession. What's next? You can see in recent weeks, the SEC has been questioning different comaniyas, cryptocurrency companies, and people. The regulation of the cryptocurrency market has begun, next is the takeover or liquidation of private banks in favor of the central bank. Then CBDC - FEDnow Starts in June-July. P.S if this prediction comes true, there will be a storm in cryptocurrency, and a drop below 16 is possible, I just keep it in mind. And it will look something like this Write your comments, send them to your friends, I really want to know your thoughts. Thank you MIlad Best regards EXCAVO
TVC:SPXShort
by EXCAVO
14
Hashflow ( HFT )Hashflow ( HFT ) is a decentralized exchange (DeFi) that supports interconnectivity. It can connect users with professional market makers and is designed to provide: -zero slippage, - no intermittent losses, - inter-network exchange without bridges. - low GAS commission, - a MEV-proof trading experience. MEV is a way for validators to make additional profits by changing the order of transactions before approving a new block in the network. See link for details. Hashflow currently supports public networks such as Ethereum , Avalanche, Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism and BNB. What's unique about Hashflow? Most DEXs rely on automated market makers (AMMs) to provide buy and sell assets, and while they are important, they are far from perfect. AMMs are inefficient from a capital perspective, are usually subject to risks such as sandwich attacks and non-permanent losses, and cannot price non-spot assets. Using a Request for Quotes (RFQ) model that allows professional market makers to manage liquidity pools, Hashflow solves these problems. What it means for market makers Hashflow allows market makers to obtain liquidity and value assets using off-network pricing functions backed by cryptographic signatures. By moving pricing offline, market makers can use more sophisticated pricing strategies that take into account offline data, such as historical asset prices, volatility , and other real-world information that allows them to effectively price assets. What this means for traders By moving pricing functions off-network, traders gain the following benefits: Better pricing. Off-network pricing results in tighter quotes, which gives traders a greater return on their money spent. Zero slippage. All Hashflow quotes are executed at the displayed price. MEV resistance Cryptographic signatures make outperformance impossible. Traders can keep what they earn. Cross-network exchanges without bridges Traders can seamlessly exchange assets between blockchains within minutes without the need for external bridges, while taking advantage of all the benefits described above. How Hashflow works The user connects their wallet to Hashflow, enters the amount they would like to exchange, and then a quote is displayed to them. If the user agrees, the order is sent and that transaction is verified and added to the Hashflow network. On the other hand, there are market makers who are in the business of issuing quotes that the user has already accepted. The market maker then signs the transaction and it is executed without slippage. Unlike other DEXs, which typically have an AMM (Automated Market Maker) that handles market making and asset pricing on the blockchain using deferred liquidity provisioning, Hashflow works the same way as an order book mechanism. Pricing is done outside the blockchain, but trading is done inside the blockchain. Total invested: $28,200,000 Tokenomics HFT's total offering will be 1,000,000,000,000 (one billion tokens). Allocations: 19.32% (193,200,000,000 HFT ) to the Core Team 25% (250,000,000 HFT ) to Early Investors 2.5% (2,500,000 HFT ) for Future Hires 53.18% (531,800,000 HFT ) for Ecosystem Development as follows: 18.54% to Ecosystem Partners 13.08% to Community Rewards (NFTs + Rake the Rewards + Exchange Distribution) 9.54% for Future Community Rewards 7.50% to Designated Market Maker Loans 2.52% to Vendors and Early Service Providers 1.00% to the Community Treasury 1.00% for Hashverse Rewards Tokenomics link Allocation and Distribution Investment and pricing for funds The project raised $28.2 million in three rounds, with 25% of the tokens sold at: 1. $0.02 per HFT (160 million tokens), 2. $0.10 per HFT (27.5 million tokens), 3. $0. 40 per HFT (62.5 million tokens). dropstab.com Token distribution and what investors will earn Investors A page with a token distribution chart, see the link. Investors have the following token distribution schedule: 25% cliff for 12 months. From the 13th month they will get 25% tokens at once 75% monthly distribution in equal shares for 36 months. The overall schedule is scheduled for 4 years. It turns out that investors will not receive anything for a year. Let's look for where else investors, in a big way, can earn. About 9.5% HFT , will be distributed: 1. trading rewards 2. Rewards for market makers. 3. Rewards for liquidity providers. Approximately 20% APY annual return (i.e. including reinvestment). These are very approximate values, see current pools and their returns. HFT distributions to traders, LPs and market makers, will eventually be subject to DAO approval once they are launched. How many tokens will investors receive as liquidity providers? Let's make the assumption that locked tokens will be available for investors to add to liquidity pools. The approximate return for liquidity providers is 20% APY, which is about 18.4% APR $0.02 per HFT (160 million tokens), A year will get 29.4 million tokens, a month 2.45 million tokens $0.10 per HFT (27.5 million tokens), In a year, they will get 5.06 million tokens, in a month 0.42 million tokens $0. 40 per HFT (62.5 million tokens). They will get 11.5 million tokens per year, 0.96 million tokens per month Best regards EXCAVO
BINANCE:HFTUSDLong
by EXCAVO
4
For all those who want to short bitcoinAs I said in the previous post, this is what happened and I expect the same scenario. I think the year will be very volatile, first half a year up then down. Now many people didn’t get on yesterday’s pump, they will start entering and there will probably be a correction on altcoins for the next few days For all those who want to short bitcoin . you will not take big moves, stop losses and liquidations will be fuel for growth. So until April don't even think about your genius and great short. Save your nerves, your hair and your deposit Best regrads EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
25
10 Potential Trends 2023 by EXCAVOPotential trends and my thoughts on the future - 1. Increased Crypto Regulation 2. I'll start by explaining what L0, L1, L2, and L3 are: L1 - Transactions L2 - Closing problems of L1 L3 - Applications/Infrastructure for Applications L0 - Cross-chain infrastructure *L1 solution cannot be fast, scalable, and decentralized at the same time. Protocols L1: Ethereum (ETH) Toncoin (TON) Solana (SOL) Near (NEAR) New L1 Solutions : Aptos Sui Canto Fuel Shardeum Quai Linera Sei Disadvantages of the New L1 ETH dominance Past failures of "new" L1 Interest in LAYER L2 solutions LAYER 2 - a protocol deployed on top of the main blockchain (Layer 1) is needed to increase the scalability of L2 - solutions are used for popular blockchain platforms with low bandwidth, such as Ethereum and Bitcoin Pay attention to: Arbitrum Optimism Polygon zkSync Fuel Labs Advantages: Ethereum is the most popular ecosystem Developed infrastructure Request for scaling Disadvantages: Risk of vulnerabilities The problem of mass adoption Key challenges: Attraction of liquidity Competition Layer 0 Cosmos, Polkadot, Avalanche, Cardano 3 . Exchange tokens also remain interesting for market participants; some exchanges leave while others remain and they see opportunities for customer growth and platform development. I would like to highlight several exchanges that are now actively working to become top exchanges: Okex Bitget Wootrade If I missed any exchange, please write in the comments 4. For potential trends, pay attention to the simplification of financial interactions, new types of fundraising, DeFi of the second and third generations, WEB3 is not yet used in a large part of the cryptocurrency market. Remember something that was very hyped in the past but has not yet been transferred to a decentralized plane, such as with ICO/IDO like IPO, as as well as NFTs like Bearbrick and KAWS. Look for a super idea or potential fierce hype. 5. DeFi will continue to develop, and from the future leaders, I think there will be projects such as: dYDX Lido Uniswap Maker Curve Advantages: Request for decentralization Ecosystem support High profitability in terms of business Disadvantages: Regulatory risks from the US Higher entry threshold than CEX Hacking attacks Key challenges: Stimulation systems Competition 6. At the end of last year, I began to look very closely at the Chat GPT platform, of course, it made me look at what is happening and the future of the world in a different way. And a few days ago, a list of crypto projects related to AI (AI) was published: coinmarketcap.com dropstab.com Many began to write about the potential trend in this direction at the next Bull Run. And this is certainly the case. Any trend starts like this. But I want to note that there are already plenty of projects working with Big Data - DYOR 7. Proof of Physical Work consensus I wrote in a previous post 8. Wallets Due to the mass distrust of centralized exchanges, wallets will gain popularity in this cycle, this hype will be facilitated by the release of the metamask token. As for me, I use several cold wallets and I really like mobile phone wallets such as C98, Safepal, and Trustwallet. 9. Social media Decentralized social networks are a potential new boom: DeSo, Nation, Farcaster, Lens Protocol, Braintrust , and so on are some examples to look out for. Centralized social networks Potentially, each social network (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Telegram) will have a direct sending of cryptocurrencies. It looks like this, stablecoin issuers are already working on implementation. This will be the next trigger and stage of adoption, which will mark the new BullRun of the cryptocurrency market, after which we will see a global restructuring of the TOP 50 The main IT giants are Apple and Google - they have been preparing to enter the cryptocurrency market for 2 years. They will be able to take the cryptocurrency industry to the next level, but I think it will not be in this cycle 10. AAA Blockchain Games ....will continue to be developed I communicate very well with the project team, see for yourself how cool it is www.youtube.com I will say more, I have already played the beta version It is also important to note that all investments come with some level of risk and even the most promising projects and trends can have unforeseeable challenges and obstacles. It is always important to conduct a thorough analysis of any investment opportunity and understand the level of risk involved before making a decision. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and always be mindful of the long-term potential of any investment. As a final note, it is also important to keep in mind the importance of regulations and compliance in the financial markets. The crypto and blockchain space is still largely unregulated and many projects and trends may fall foul of legal and regulatory requirements. It is important to stay up-to-date with any changes in laws and regulations in the countries you are operating or investing in. I hope this information has been helpful in providing some context and guidance when it comes to trends and developments in the financial markets, and a deeper understanding of the crypto and blockchain space. Remember, it is essential to conduct your own research and make your own decisions based on your financial goals and risk tolerance. If I missed any trend write it in the comments Best regards EXCAVO
BNC:BLXLong
by EXCAVO
20
Proof of Physical Work consensusA new concept of Proof of Physical Work consensus Proof of Physical Work protocol encapsulates real-world use cases. The blockchain protocol rewards users for performing verifiable physical work like deploying a 5G hotspot etc. As examples of similar projects Wireless Network: Hellium Pollen mobile Provide token rewards to participants (hotspot operators) to provide network coverage for IoT and 5G. Mobility Hivemapper Dimo This is a decentralized map built by participants using dashcams, while DIMO Network users can earn rewards for connecting a hardware device to their car and contributing that data to the network Environmental: PlanetWatch -is striving to build a global air quality monitoring network to identify pollution hotspots and the community members can earn rewards for their efforts.) Weather Compute & Storage Filecoin arweave livepeer RNDR Filecoin boasts of a decentralized storage network. It provides a powerful source of low-cost distributed cloud storage, where contributors provide storage space on their machines and get rewarded in return. Arweave is similar to Filecoin in decentralized storage functionality, except that the former is focused on the problem of long-term data storage. I think that a full-fledged category of this Proof of Physical work will appear soon, this is what is really needed for Web3.0, this is a real connection with the physical world. And the IoT (Internet of things) will move into this category - Proof of Physical work
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EXCAVO
33
Bitcoin capitulationWhat we need to start an uptrend: breaking through the resistance line = trend reversal and the end of the bearish trend, which lasts more than 50 weeks, as I said in the previous global chart. Judging from the logarithmic chart, we are breaking through the global support zone and there will be a panic in the market, perhaps not only in the crypto market. We are approaching the support line of a large ascending channel. It will be accompanied by cascading, avalanche-forced liquidations of the long positions, the bankruptcy of funds, and so on. We are coming close to the zone of our positions. There is a possibility that the manipulator (exchanges) will make a short squeeze with a fake breakout of the resistance line before falling. They will collect liquidity from both sides, as it was in 2018 before the fall from 6 to 3. The scenario fits the Wyckoff and Elliott concept. Best regards, EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
37