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Exhaustion

A Tale of Two WedgesBTC has been struggling under the weight of massive overhead resistance--from the recent Death Cross, from having broken a major trend support line, from Weekly bearish divergence, and so on. Retail investors are "extremely fearful" and calls of impending doom are everywhere--meanwhile, those in short positions are euphoric. All this is setting the stage for a potentially massive Short Squeeze. This isn't just a "feeling", there are plenty of indications in the chart that support a big bounce from these levels. We've had recent bullish divergence on the daily chart, volume is dwindling (suggesting sellers are exhausted), but what I'm really focused on is the Falling Wedge pattern we're in... I've drawn two Falling Wedges on the chart: one from the candle Wicks (Blue) and the other from the candle Closes (Orange). Both only strengthen my conviction that a bullish break will happen. The question is "When will it break?". The blue wedge suggests we break out above 40000. The orange wedge suggests we may go deeper into the 30,000-40,000 range. My personal bias is that we breakout before 40,000. Either way, this isn't a time to fear. ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
Long
by mercury_rising
3
Bullish momentum, but needs a cooldownNEAR may still have some juice in the tank vs BTC, but we're entering buyer exhaustion on the daily chart. Too much risk to enter long here with the way I trade. I'm anticipating a bullish cooldown, perhaps back to the 50 EMA, in the next couple weeks and will look for a potential entry. ------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following. Thanks!
by mercury_rising
BTC Zoomed In (4hr chart)Let's take a closer look at BTC on the 4-hour chart. So far price is following the projected path of our last update (see linked idea). The question now is when are the bulls going to take control? We've seen a flourish of buying activity today with high volume, but will it be enough to trigger the reversal here? I'm showing the 4-hour chart (instead of the Daily) so I can show you that we still appear to have some overhead resistance that needs to clear (The blue field in the middle indicator). Some of that resistance has turned to support and we've just seen bullish divergence so we *might* see the bulls step up here. However, it still might take a few days for the path to clear. Be patient. I'm only looking to add to longs here. ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
Long
by mercury_rising
Potential for small bounce, but still BearishNetflix is down 22% from its high in November. There is a lot of downward momentum/pressure in this move and market structure is broken. Price has returned to the most recent Supply Zone, we've entered my "buy" zone, and sellers are ready to take a break--for now. I think a small bounce could happen from this level, but I'm expecting bearish momentum to carry the price deeper into the Supply Zone. I certainly wouldn't short here, but given all the negative energy, I'm not interested in NFLX until I see bullish divergence. ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
NASDAQ:NFLX
by mercury_rising
Roku entering DCA zoneAfter falling 64% from its highs over the last 5 months, Roku appears to be heading into solid support. We appear to be at the bottom of a Falling Wedge (bullish)... The tip of the wedge lands in a Supply Zone... We have bullish divergence on the daily chart... and we have multi-level Seller Exhaustion. On the down side, we still appear to have heavy resistance and negative pressure to work through. We could see a small bounce here, but I think it's likely that price still has a little more to drop. I think this is a good place to start averaging into a long position. ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by mercury_rising
AXS looking for supportAXS has pulled back to the 200 EMA and is looking for support. I don't see an obvious Trend Support line, so I'm looking to the Supply Zone (area where a lot of trading has taken place in the recent past) to provide a respite for the bulls. We've entered my "buy zone" but I want to see divergence/confirmation before I consider an entry. Sellers appear exhausted so I'm expecting at least a short-term bounce at least up to resistance. Whether or not it can break that resistance, I'm not sure. ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
Long
by mercury_rising
SHIB testing supportIn our last look at SHIB-USDT (see linked idea), we were hoping for a Higher Low to form which would signal short-term bullishness. Instead, price action has followed our bearish path and is now retesting the support line. I think a bounce from this level is reasonable, but it might just be a temporary bounce as we run into further overhead resistance. Overall, SHIB looks interesting at these levels. However, if the support line breaks, bulls will need to hope the 200 EMA comes to the rescue. ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
by mercury_rising
5
Mixed signals on CELOOn the positive side, CELO has broken the Trend Resistance and the 4-hour chart (not shown) suggests we may bounce off the new support line. That bullishness, however, should be tempered with the Daily chart which suggests Buyer Exhaustion is on the horizon. In addition, I'm seeing negative pressure that could signal a sharp downward move. The chart is too risky for me, I need to see some Daily bullish signals before considering a long. ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
by mercury_rising
3
Trend broken, looking for next supportSOL-BTC is following our predicted path almost exactly (see linked idea). Trend Support broke and we're now looking for a support zone and seller exhaustion. Currently, I'm targeting the 200 EMA as support, however I'll be looking for some bullish divergences before I get excited about SOL again. ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
by mercury_rising
3
Cautiously bullish, but... BNB has taken the more bearish path from our last review (see linked idea). In that "bearish" case we presumed a retreat to Trend Support before BNB would gain bullish momentum again. While I still think a bounce from Trend Support is possible, there's a big *but* to consider: Weekly Bearish Divergence. With the way I trade, Divergence is the primary indicator I look for. Normally I just have to pay attention to the Daily and 4-hour divergences because they tend to playout regardless of what the weekly charts are doing. However, weekly bearish divergence can add significant downward volatility and pressure as bigger players start taking profits and slowly unwinding from their long positions. In short, be cautious here. I'm still looking for a small entry when I see Daily Bullish Divergence, but I will be taking profits rather aggressively. Good Luck ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
by mercury_rising
2
ETH UpdateNow let's revisit our ETH-BTC chart. The upper support line appears to be holding, however the downward momentum looks strong enough to push price to the lower support line. The Aqua path now seems the most likely to me, however I'm not totally convinced the lower support will hold either. Regardless, I'm waiting for ETH to enter my Buy Zone before I'm interested in taking a long position. ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
by mercury_rising
Alibaba signaling a reversal?BABA has spent the last year in a bear market. It's down about 60% from it's highs. Based on the charts, the sellers look exhausted and most of the downward momentum has been spent. There's bullish divergence on the daily and 4hr charts. It may take a couple months for bullish momentum to return in force, but it looks like we are at, or near the floor. I'm anticipating short-term bullishness followed by perhaps one more low, and then solid growth. ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
NYSE:BABALong
by mercury_rising
5
AMZN is attractive here, waiting for confirmation(If you're confused with the change in background colors, I'm planning on using Black for cryptocurrencies and Midnight Blue for Stocks.) AMZN has been ranging for almost two years and is presenting a possible swing trade option here. Seller exhaustion looks good, but we haven't quite reached my buy zone. I might take a smaller position here and look to add when it enters the buy zone, and potentially go in even more when I see bullish divergence on the 4h chart. Happy Trading ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by mercury_rising
Shades of the Shakeout of Oct 2019In October 2019, the charts looked very similar to what we're seeing now with BTC. Price had been falling for more than a month and the 200 EMA was providing heavy resistance. Everyone was talking about a looming Death Cross (where the 50 EMA crosses below the 200 EMA). We saw bullish divergence and seller exhaustion on the daily chart (similar to today) and were positioned for a strong bullish move. However, on Oct 22nd, there was a strong selloff and the price fell about 10%. This move triggered countless stoplosses and liquidated an enormous amount of leveraged longs. Chants of "Bitcoin is Dead" were all over social media. Then, just two days (or so) after the dramatic drop, BTC rocketed up 40%. The drop in price on the 22nd was a Liquidity Grab/Stoploss Hunt. Big players need liquidity in the markets in order to fill their desired position sizes. Many traders provide that liquidity by setting tight stoplosses at critical decision points. The traders that panicked or got stopped out on the 22nd, missed the 40% move on the 24th. I'm **NOT** saying history is about to repeat itself or that we're going to jump 40% from here... I'm just saying that now is exactly the wrong time to panic. I'm still expecting a strong bullish move that will catch many by surprise. ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
Long
by mercury_rising
3
Bullish divergence on 1D and 4H chartsAll the boxes are checked on BTC for where I want to go long: Bullish Divergence on 1D and 4H and Seller Exhaustion on the 1D. I am expecting bullish momentum within the next week. That said, there is still a lot of resistance overhead that makes me think BTC may be heading into a bearish macro trend--Regardless, I believe we will see a relief rally first. -------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
Long
by mercury_rising
3
Waiting for seller exhaustionSOL is currently in a Symmetrical Triangle (neutral) but within it, a downward curved resistance suggests aggressive selling. I think there's a good chance we retest the Trend Support line before sellers are exhausted enough to see a relief bounce. I'm on the sidelines waiting for SOL to enter my buy zone, and then I'll look for bullish divergence on the 4-hr chart for entry. Non-technical note: A big move up by BTC vs USDT would likely increase demand for SOL and we could see a break of resistance earlier than expected. If you think BTC is bullish, then there's reason to be bullish here on SOL ---------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following. Thanks!
by mercury_rising
1
Bullish, but waiting for a buy zoneBNB is in an Ascending Triangle (bullish) with USDT. In addition, there is a curved rising support that suggests buying pressure is increasing at the same time that sellers are exhausted. Having said that, there is a chance that sellers break the curved support--and price could fall back to the Trend Support line. With that uncertainty, I'm looking for confirmation (bullish divergence on the 4-hr chart) before I enter. ------------------------------------------------------------ These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following. Thanks!
Long
by mercury_rising
6
Bearish mid-term, Bullish long-termMATIC appears to be forming a clear Cup against BTC. It's also in a Rising Wedge pattern (bearish). We've recently seen bearish divergences on the daily and 4-hour charts. Buyers appear exhausted. I'm not interested in longing MATIC at these levels and I'm expecting a cooling off (Handle) before breaking out higher. I'll be looking for bullish divergence at least on the 4-hour before this is tempting for me. ------------------------------------------------------ These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following. Thanks!
MShort
by mercury_rising
Early hints of trend reversal!DOGE has been struggling against BTC for several months, but sellers are exhausted. I'm seeing bullish divergence on the daily chart and we're in an extended Falling Wedge. A breakout of this wedge could be explosive. Keep an eye on DOGE in the next couple weeks. I'm interested in averaging in here. -------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following. Thanks!
Long
by mercury_rising
3
Bitcoin Bull TrapHello Everyone, Today I am showing my bitcoin Descending Wedge Bull Trap Scenario. We have seen this pattern at the 60k area and now we are seeing it yet again in the 40k area. Here are the Technicals: 1. Bearish Price Action - Volume is going up as Price is going down 2. Weekly/Monthly showing signs of cycle exhaustion. - The monthly Chart has maxed out on RSI and the weekly is showing similar patterns of market cycle reversal. 3. HS validation and Retest. - Both models show a head and shoulders pattern being validated with a retest. I am expecting a bounce at 38k but this does not change the overall sentiment. I believe we have entered the bear market cycle and will continue to be in it until sentiment changes. As Always, be patient, use risk management, and good luck trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by RomanXIV
7