Bitcoin to 94K with Expanded Flat idea of Wave 2As you can see, Bitcoin is still struggling to break above the FWB:65K level. If it continues to deviate, I believe we will experience a minor pullback of 1-2 within the sub-micro degree of wave 2. However, this would still be considered a bullish correction.
Trapping longs around FWB:65K is a known manipulation technique, but I believe that once we complete this 1-2 pullback, we will see a strong rally to the upside.
Expandedflat
Expanded Flat - Wave C BeginningSPX has possibly completed forming Waves A and B of a complex expanded flat correction, and may be near starting its Wave C.
More likely this is the case should TVC:DXY continue up to and above 112-115. See related chart linked below under related ideas.
Another possibility is a running flat correction where it turns back up near the 100% fib instead.
EXPANDED FLAT PATTERN : Elliott Wave theory ( Elliott BABA)A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC • Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves
• Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal
• Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three
• Wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A • Wave C ends substantially beyond the ending level of wave A
Fibonacci Ratio Relationship
• Wave B = 123.6% of wave A
• Wave C = 123.6% – 161.8% of wave AB
EXPENDED FLAT : ELLIOTT WAVE CORRECTIONEXPANDED FLAT CORRECTION
2- EXPANDING FLAT :
• A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC
• Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves
• Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal
• Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three
• Wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A
• Wave C ends substantially beyond the ending level of wave A
Fibonacci Ratio Relationship
• Wave B = 123.6% of wave A
• Wave C = 123.6% – 161.8% of wave AB
CVNA - EXPANDED OR RUNNING FLATPreviously, I had put a rather bold prediction calling a shot term top when CVNA first hit the $28.50 price range.
Obviously, you cannot make a full prediction on how a correctional will play out, the most common of which are A-B-C setups. This is setup to be an expanded or running type of flat correctional.
Based on the key trend-line we have yet to test, my money would be on some form of long-drawn out running flat on the come-down followed by a decent surge once bears fail to take it down below the lower $21 price range.
BTC- First WaveIt's so hard to fit this idea in a digestible way that can be viewed well. I've opted to just posting the most relevant part first and as we develop and update our count I'll post pictures till we're out of wave 1.
CURRENT STATE: MICRO COUNT - WAVE 2 (5 WAVES TOTAL)
We've got ourselves a nice little expanded flat it appears, the 1.618 extensions also line up perfectly with the VPR zone ($27,935) Honestly found my count to be very surprising especially on the eve of such bullish news for Bitcoin. But this is just the technical/wave count view.
Our long-term overall price target is still $40,000 for our main count linked in the idea attached.
Technical Notes
- Volatility we're expecting doesn't fit very well with the auto chart and I suppose I'm a bit to lazy to make the proper adjustments.
- No local trend lines so we're flying a little blind on the timeline of this move.
- VERY STRONG CORRELATION OF VPR + 1.618 EXTENSION!
This means this move is highly likely. Expecting it to happen rather rapidly.
Expanded Flat -> Triple-BottomTotal2 looks like an expanded flat completing its reversal at the end of a C wave.
It has twice bottomed just shy of the 1.618 for its trend-based fib, and may or may not reach a 3rd bottom near this area before exiting above its neckline.
If it doesn't reach bottom again, it's possible it could perform a move similar to what INDEX:BTCUSD did here:
However, it has so far failed to maintain a breakout if we draw a similar wedge on Total2:
A 1x measured target lines up with its 50% trend-based fib, while the 2x measured target for the triple-bottom lines up exactly with its 0% fib, exactly where total2 reached its ATH.
This would go in line with my theory that movements in DXY could lead to recoveries across multiple markets that end in double-tops.
BANKNIFTY HOURLY CHART-UPDATE FREE SERVICEBANKNIFTY HOURLY CHART-UPDATE FREE SERVICE
Guys in my view their is no such condition to be very bullish.
In higher degree we are in wave 4 of which we have completed (a) and (b) now we are in impulsive move down, and it will be an impulse as I am sure we are in an expanding flat.
If you will have money, you will be able to put it at bottom otherwise you will wait or exit when bottom will come.
Thank you
Regards...
Bitcoin: Navigating the Complexities of Market MovementsIn this update, I'm going to dive into a short analysis of Bitcoin's performance since last June, exploring three potential scenarios and their implications for both beginner and advanced traders. My aim is to provide an accessible yet technical discussion that caters to a wide range of users.
Scenario 1: Expanded Flat (BEARISH - top may be in or very close)
The first scenario we will consider is an expanded flat formation, which has a generally bearish outlook. An expanded flat formation consists of a 3-3-5 wave structure (A-B-C), with Wave B extending beyond the start of Wave A and Wave C extending beyond the end of Wave A. It's important to understand that Elliott Wave Theory is a complex analytical tool, and recognizing these patterns takes practice and experience.
While expanded flats are relatively rare compared to other market structures, the current Bitcoin chart shows some indications of this pattern. We can observe a 3-wave move into wave A, a 3-wave move into wave B, and a concluding 5-wave move into wave C. This pattern suggests a significant downward trajectory from the current price range, with a multitude of Fibonacci targets clustered within the first red box.
Scenario 2: 1-2 Wave Structure (BULLISH - short term target may be in or very close)
If Bitcoin's price movement is not following an expanded flat pattern, then we might be dealing with a 1-2 wave structure. In this case, we would still be completing a 5-wave structure, followed by an expected 3-wave correction. Many analysts predict that this correction will terminate at the 200-week moving average, currently at $25,600. However, if we are indeed in a 1-2 wave structure, it's likely that the correction will extend below this level, possibly reaching the $20,000 to $23,000 range.
Wave 2 usually retraces a portion of Wave 1 before the trend continues with Wave 3. The termination point of Wave 2 varies, but there are some general guidelines to consider:
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Wave 2 often retraces between 50% to 61.8% of Wave 1. In some cases, Wave 2 retracement can be as shallow as 38.2% or as deep as 78.6%, but 50% and 61.8% are the most common levels.
Rule of Alternation: According to the Rule of Alternation, if Wave 2 is a deep retracement (closer to 61.8% or more), then the subsequent Wave 4 is likely to be shallow (closer to 38.2% or less), and vice versa. This rule helps traders anticipate the depth of retracements in Wave 2 and Wave 4.
Support and Resistance: Wave 2 may also terminate near areas of previous support or resistance from the price history. Support and resistance levels can act as barriers that either slow down or reverse the price movement.
It's important to note that while these guidelines can be helpful, market behavior is not guaranteed.
Scenario 3: Rising After Correction (BEARISH - prolonged chop and higher targets later this year)
Assuming Bitcoin's price does reach the lower target levels mentioned above, the next step is to evaluate the subsequent move. If we are in a 1-2 wave structure and entering wave 3, we could potentially see Bitcoin prices surge to around $60,000. However, the probability of this occurring is relatively low at the moment. A more plausible scenario is a downward move into June, followed by a price increase that may peak around $35,000 to $36,000 before declining again. This would also indicate a move to new lows (below $18,000).
It's crucial for traders to carefully analyze market patterns and consider various scenarios when making decisions. In the event of a significant price increase, it's wise to manage risk by taking profits and diversifying your assets. Keep a close eye on market developments and be prepared to adapt your strategy as necessary, always conducting your own research and consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
An Alternative Bitcoin Scenario - Examining an Expanded FlatThis idea explores an alternative scenario for Bitcoin's price movement, considering the possibility of an expanded flat wave pattern from an Elliott Wave perspective. I will discuss the likelihood of this scenario occurring and analyze different price targets based on various projections.
Bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations since its inception, leading to various analysis and predictions of its future trajectory. One possible alternative scenario worth considering is the formation of an expanded flat wave pattern, with the entire wave structuse starting in December 2018. While this scenario has a relatively low probability of occurrence (around 20%), it provides an interesting perspective on Bitcoin's potential price movements.
Elliott Wave Analysis
To analyze this alternative scenario, we use the Elliott Wave Principle, which claims that market cycles can be broken down into a series of waves. In this case, I look at the possibility of a 5-wave pattern that began in late 2018:
Wave 1: The incline to almost $14,000 in June 2019 which started in December 2018
Wave 2: The decline to below $4,000 in March 2020, coinciding with the pandemic
Wave 3: The subsequent rally to $64,000, in which the wave traveled almost 193% the length of Wave 1, projected from the bottom of Wave 2
Wave 4: The potential completion of an expanded flat pattern in December 2021
Wave 5: The projected price targets based on various measurements
Wave 5 Projections and Price Targets
To project potential price targets for Wave 5, we can employ different measurements and calculations. Here are some possible targets to consider:
100% Equality Target: By measuring Wave 1 and projecting it from the bottom of Wave 4, we arrive at a target of approximately $68,700. This would essentially result in a double top , which may not be very appealing to traders seeking higher returns.
61.8% Fibonacci Projection: By measuring from the start of Wave 1 to the end of Wave 3 and projecting this from the bottom of Wave 4, we can apply a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This results in a target of around $101,000, which may be more attractive to traders.
161.8% Fibonacci Projection: Taking a more ambitious approach, we can apply the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which yields a target of $171,000. However, given the low probability of this entire scenario occurring (20%), the likelihood of reaching this target is even lower, at around 5%.
While this alternative scenario presents an interesting perspective on Bitcoin's potential price movements, it is crucial to remember that the probability of this expanded flat wave pattern playing out is relatively low. You should consider this analysis as just one of many possible scenarios and exercise caution when making decisions based on such projections. It is always important to take into account other factors and conduct comprehensive research before making any investment decisions.
I hope you enjoyed this exploration of an alternative Bitcoin scenario using the Elliott Wave Principle and expanded flat wave pattern. As with any market analysis, it is essential to approach such content with a discerning eye and consider multiple perspectives before making investment decisions. My aim is to provide thought-provoking content that offers unique insights and stimulates engaging discussions among my readers. I appreciate your interest and encourage you to share your thoughts and opinions on this topic. Happy reading!
(Republished to correct chart issue in previous idea)
Expanded Flat Correction lines up with Various Pattern TargetsHere's a more bullish chart for Bitcoin, should the expanded flat correction play out and take us to a new ATH:
*** This idea requires DXY to turn back and continue its downtrend, a resumed uptrend would likely negate this ***
Expanded Flat stopped just below the 1.618 on the trend-based fib measurement (logarithmic), first stop after crossing ATH and 100% would be ~87500 at the -0.382 fib, then ~105k at -0.618, ~144k at the ~100%, and potentially even ~237k at the -1.618
All of the above (expanded flat fib extension) lines up with several common pattern targets and the fib retracement from our previous March 2020 low to our last ATH:
1.) 2018-20 Triangle - has a measured 1x TP 1 at 81k, very near the 87.5k target mentioned above. Then a 1.5x TP 2 at 241k, which very nearly matches the 1.414 fib retracement @ 225k and the expanded flat's trend-based -1.618 fib extension at 237k.
2.) Present Weekly Falling Wedge - has a measured 1.5x TP 2 at 87k, matching the expanded flat target at -0.382. The 2x measured target is at ~141k, less than 3k under the -100% trend-based fib ext from the expanded flat.
3.) The entire idea above fits perfectly into a logarithmic parallel channel uptrend.
I've drawn a couple of suggested paths here within the channel, one not reaching channel top and the other reaching top, both then heading to channel bottom. If the move stays within the channel through 2025-2026, it could reach 323k.
BTC Scalping short trading opportunity
We may witness a fractal move of the daily chart as wave 4 of a potential bearish impulse.
A bearish expanded flat (possibly a running flat) is expected with a bearish White Swan harmonic pattern.
SL above 23300. Recommended 23350 (see the trendline right up).
TP 22400-22700.
I also predicted wave 2 would be an Elliott flat, which revealed it was not (it seems to have been a zigzag).
Is this an Elliot Flat?
Is this an expanded flat, a corrective wave in the Elliott wave theory?
If so, we should already have seen a similar, possibly fractal, formation on our daily chart .
If this is the case, what will happen?
One of its consequences would be the commencement of another downtrend (I have already examined this scenario several times. see the links).
Otherwise, this movement could be wave 2 of a new uptrend (green), which I don't think so.
bitcoin is completing zigzag in a WXY waveHello
The second plan of bitcoin is a WXY wave that we're in wave B of wave C of Wave Y
We assume that the wave B of zigzag would be an expanded flat and is covering a 5 wave to complete expanded FLAT and can go 25000 higher
Then in order to complete wave C of zigzag we're supposed to have 5 wave correction
regards
reza
BTC SHORTterm-BTC
Bulls are printing and bears getting rekt.
here is my ST view, BTC expandend flat:
we are now in a small wave 3, going for 4->5 ( dark yellow)
after that the bigger wave 3 is finished and we can retrace to 4 then 5 (bright yellow)
When this is finished we make new lows for btc.
*info not in the charts
/we have not hit the real bottem yet/
retail is buying like crazy while the whales keep dumping.
When retail gives up and starts selling + the 10k btc whales start selling then
at this moment the 1k btc whales will start to buy all the btc and then the real bottem is in.
Goodluck hope this helps you!